PandemieGrippaleV1, Main, Exploration, bibRecordById, Pascal:14-0241810

The Hidden Geometry of Complex, Network-Driven Contagion Phenomena

Identifieur interne : 001760 ( Main/Exploration ); précédent : 001759; suivant : 001761

The Hidden Geometry of Complex, Network-Driven Contagion Phenomena

Auteurs : Dirk Brockmann [Allemagne, États-Unis] ; Dirk Helbing [Suisse]

Source :

Science : (Washington, D.C.) [ 0036-8075 ] ; 2013.

RBID : Pascal:14-0241810

Descripteurs français

Pascal (Inist)
- Grippe, Syndrome respiratoire aigu sévère, Maladie émergente, Epidémie, Contagion, Modélisation, Homme, Statistique, Maladie contagieuse, Pandémie.
Wicri :
- topic : Homme, Statistique.

English descriptors

KwdEn :
- Communicable disease, Contagion, Emerging disease, Epidemic, Human, Influenza, Modeling, Severe acute respiratory syndrome, Statistics.

Abstract

The global spread of epidemics, rumors, opinions, and innovations are complex, network-driven dynamic processes. The combined multiscale nature and intrinsic heterogeneity of the underlying networks make it difficult to develop an intuitive understanding of these processes, to distinguish relevant from peripheral factors, to predict their time course, and to locate their origin. However, we show that complex spatiotemporal patterns can be reduced to surprisingly simple, homogeneous wave propagation patterns, if conventional geographic distance is replaced by a probabilistically motivated effective distance. In the context of global, air-traffic-mediated epidemics, we show that effective distance reliably predicts disease arrival times. Even if epidemiological parameters are unknown, the method can still deliver relative arrival times. The approach can also identify the spatial origin of spreading processes and successfully be applied to data of the worldwide 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic and 2003 SARS epidemic.

Affiliations:

Links toward previous steps (curation, corpus...)

to stream PascalFrancis, to step Corpus: 000033
to stream PascalFrancis, to step Curation: 001D86
to stream PascalFrancis, to step Checkpoint: 000187
to stream Main, to step Merge: 001784
to stream Main, to step Curation: 001760

Le document en format XML

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The Hidden Geometry of Complex, Network-Driven Contagion Phenomena

The Hidden Geometry of Complex, Network-Driven Contagion Phenomena

Source :

Descripteurs français

English descriptors

Abstract

Links toward previous steps (curation, corpus...)

Le document en format XML

Pour manipuler ce document sous Unix (Dilib)

Pour mettre un lien sur cette page dans le réseau Wicri