Serveur d'exploration sur les pandémies grippales

Attention, ce site est en cours de développement !
Attention, site généré par des moyens informatiques à partir de corpus bruts.
Les informations ne sont donc pas validées.

Mathematical models to characterize early epidemic growth: A Review

Identifieur interne : 000864 ( Main/Exploration ); précédent : 000863; suivant : 000865

Mathematical models to characterize early epidemic growth: A Review

Auteurs : Gerardo Chowell [États-Unis] ; Lisa Sattenspiel [États-Unis] ; Shweta Bansal [États-Unis] ; Cécile Viboud [États-Unis]

Source :

RBID : PMC:5348083

Descripteurs français

English descriptors

Abstract

There is a long tradition of using mathematical models to generate insights into the transmission dynamics of infectious diseases and assess the potential impact of different intervention strategies. The increasing use of mathematical models for epidemic forecasting has highlighted the importance of designing reliable models that capture the baseline transmission characteristics of specific pathogens and social contexts. More refined models are needed however, in particular to account for variation in the early growth dynamics of real epidemics and to gain a better understanding of the mechanisms at play. Here, we review recent progress on modeling and characterizing early epidemic growth patterns from infectious disease outbreak data, and survey the types of mathematical formulations that are most useful for capturing a diversity of early epidemic growth profiles, ranging from sub-exponential to exponential growth dynamics. Specifically, we review mathematical models that incorporate spatial details or realistic population mixing structures, including meta-population models, individual-based network models, and simple SIR-type models that incorporate the effects of reactive behavior changes or inhomogeneous mixing. In this process, we also analyze simulation data stemming from detailed large-scale agent-based models previously designed and calibrated to study how realistic social networks and disease transmission characteristics shape early epidemic growth patterns, general transmission dynamics, and control of international disease emergencies such as the 2009 A/H1N1 influenza pandemic and the 2014-15 Ebola epidemic in West Africa.


Url:
DOI: 10.1016/j.plrev.2016.07.005
PubMed: 27451336
PubMed Central: 5348083


Affiliations:


Links toward previous steps (curation, corpus...)


Le document en format XML

<record>
<TEI>
<teiHeader>
<fileDesc>
<titleStmt>
<title xml:lang="en">Mathematical models to characterize early epidemic growth: A Review</title>
<author>
<name sortKey="Chowell, Gerardo" sort="Chowell, Gerardo" uniqKey="Chowell G" first="Gerardo" last="Chowell">Gerardo Chowell</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="2">
<nlm:aff id="A1"> School of Public Health, Georgia State University, Atlanta, GA, USA</nlm:aff>
<country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country>
<wicri:regionArea> School of Public Health, Georgia State University, Atlanta, GA</wicri:regionArea>
<placeName>
<region type="state">Géorgie (États-Unis)</region>
</placeName>
</affiliation>
<affiliation wicri:level="2">
<nlm:aff id="A2"> Division of International Epidemiology and Population Studies, Fogarty International Center, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD, USA</nlm:aff>
<country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country>
<wicri:regionArea> Division of International Epidemiology and Population Studies, Fogarty International Center, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD</wicri:regionArea>
<placeName>
<region type="state">Maryland</region>
</placeName>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author>
<name sortKey="Sattenspiel, Lisa" sort="Sattenspiel, Lisa" uniqKey="Sattenspiel L" first="Lisa" last="Sattenspiel">Lisa Sattenspiel</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="2">
<nlm:aff id="A3"> Department of Anthropology, University of Missouri, Columbia, MO, USA</nlm:aff>
<country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country>
<wicri:regionArea> Department of Anthropology, University of Missouri, Columbia, MO</wicri:regionArea>
<placeName>
<region type="state">Missouri (État)</region>
</placeName>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author>
<name sortKey="Bansal, Shweta" sort="Bansal, Shweta" uniqKey="Bansal S" first="Shweta" last="Bansal">Shweta Bansal</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="3">
<nlm:aff id="A4"> Department of Biology, Georgetown University, Washington DC, USA</nlm:aff>
<country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country>
<wicri:regionArea> Department of Biology, Georgetown University, Washington DC</wicri:regionArea>
<placeName>
<settlement type="city">Washington (district de Columbia)</settlement>
<region type="state">District de Columbia</region>
</placeName>
</affiliation>
<affiliation wicri:level="2">
<nlm:aff id="A2"> Division of International Epidemiology and Population Studies, Fogarty International Center, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD, USA</nlm:aff>
<country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country>
<wicri:regionArea> Division of International Epidemiology and Population Studies, Fogarty International Center, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD</wicri:regionArea>
<placeName>
<region type="state">Maryland</region>
</placeName>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author>
<name sortKey="Viboud, Cecile" sort="Viboud, Cecile" uniqKey="Viboud C" first="Cécile" last="Viboud">Cécile Viboud</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="2">
<nlm:aff id="A2"> Division of International Epidemiology and Population Studies, Fogarty International Center, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD, USA</nlm:aff>
<country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country>
<wicri:regionArea> Division of International Epidemiology and Population Studies, Fogarty International Center, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD</wicri:regionArea>
<placeName>
<region type="state">Maryland</region>
</placeName>
</affiliation>
</author>
</titleStmt>
<publicationStmt>
<idno type="wicri:source">PMC</idno>
<idno type="pmid">27451336</idno>
<idno type="pmc">5348083</idno>
<idno type="url">http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5348083</idno>
<idno type="RBID">PMC:5348083</idno>
<idno type="doi">10.1016/j.plrev.2016.07.005</idno>
<date when="2016">2016</date>
<idno type="wicri:Area/Pmc/Corpus">000830</idno>
<idno type="wicri:explorRef" wicri:stream="Pmc" wicri:step="Corpus" wicri:corpus="PMC">000830</idno>
<idno type="wicri:Area/Pmc/Curation">000830</idno>
<idno type="wicri:explorRef" wicri:stream="Pmc" wicri:step="Curation">000830</idno>
<idno type="wicri:Area/Pmc/Checkpoint">000293</idno>
<idno type="wicri:explorRef" wicri:stream="Pmc" wicri:step="Checkpoint">000293</idno>
<idno type="wicri:source">PubMed</idno>
<idno type="RBID">pubmed:27451336</idno>
<idno type="wicri:Area/PubMed/Corpus">000510</idno>
<idno type="wicri:explorRef" wicri:stream="PubMed" wicri:step="Corpus" wicri:corpus="PubMed">000510</idno>
<idno type="wicri:Area/PubMed/Curation">000510</idno>
<idno type="wicri:explorRef" wicri:stream="PubMed" wicri:step="Curation">000510</idno>
<idno type="wicri:Area/PubMed/Checkpoint">000487</idno>
<idno type="wicri:explorRef" wicri:stream="Checkpoint" wicri:step="PubMed">000487</idno>
<idno type="wicri:Area/Ncbi/Merge">001B79</idno>
<idno type="wicri:Area/Ncbi/Curation">001B79</idno>
<idno type="wicri:Area/Ncbi/Checkpoint">001B79</idno>
<idno type="wicri:doubleKey">1571-0645:2016:Chowell G:mathematical:models:to</idno>
<idno type="wicri:Area/Main/Merge">000866</idno>
<idno type="wicri:Area/Main/Curation">000864</idno>
<idno type="wicri:Area/Main/Exploration">000864</idno>
</publicationStmt>
<sourceDesc>
<biblStruct>
<analytic>
<title xml:lang="en" level="a" type="main">Mathematical models to characterize early epidemic growth: A Review</title>
<author>
<name sortKey="Chowell, Gerardo" sort="Chowell, Gerardo" uniqKey="Chowell G" first="Gerardo" last="Chowell">Gerardo Chowell</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="2">
<nlm:aff id="A1"> School of Public Health, Georgia State University, Atlanta, GA, USA</nlm:aff>
<country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country>
<wicri:regionArea> School of Public Health, Georgia State University, Atlanta, GA</wicri:regionArea>
<placeName>
<region type="state">Géorgie (États-Unis)</region>
</placeName>
</affiliation>
<affiliation wicri:level="2">
<nlm:aff id="A2"> Division of International Epidemiology and Population Studies, Fogarty International Center, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD, USA</nlm:aff>
<country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country>
<wicri:regionArea> Division of International Epidemiology and Population Studies, Fogarty International Center, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD</wicri:regionArea>
<placeName>
<region type="state">Maryland</region>
</placeName>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author>
<name sortKey="Sattenspiel, Lisa" sort="Sattenspiel, Lisa" uniqKey="Sattenspiel L" first="Lisa" last="Sattenspiel">Lisa Sattenspiel</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="2">
<nlm:aff id="A3"> Department of Anthropology, University of Missouri, Columbia, MO, USA</nlm:aff>
<country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country>
<wicri:regionArea> Department of Anthropology, University of Missouri, Columbia, MO</wicri:regionArea>
<placeName>
<region type="state">Missouri (État)</region>
</placeName>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author>
<name sortKey="Bansal, Shweta" sort="Bansal, Shweta" uniqKey="Bansal S" first="Shweta" last="Bansal">Shweta Bansal</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="3">
<nlm:aff id="A4"> Department of Biology, Georgetown University, Washington DC, USA</nlm:aff>
<country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country>
<wicri:regionArea> Department of Biology, Georgetown University, Washington DC</wicri:regionArea>
<placeName>
<settlement type="city">Washington (district de Columbia)</settlement>
<region type="state">District de Columbia</region>
</placeName>
</affiliation>
<affiliation wicri:level="2">
<nlm:aff id="A2"> Division of International Epidemiology and Population Studies, Fogarty International Center, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD, USA</nlm:aff>
<country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country>
<wicri:regionArea> Division of International Epidemiology and Population Studies, Fogarty International Center, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD</wicri:regionArea>
<placeName>
<region type="state">Maryland</region>
</placeName>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author>
<name sortKey="Viboud, Cecile" sort="Viboud, Cecile" uniqKey="Viboud C" first="Cécile" last="Viboud">Cécile Viboud</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="2">
<nlm:aff id="A2"> Division of International Epidemiology and Population Studies, Fogarty International Center, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD, USA</nlm:aff>
<country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country>
<wicri:regionArea> Division of International Epidemiology and Population Studies, Fogarty International Center, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD</wicri:regionArea>
<placeName>
<region type="state">Maryland</region>
</placeName>
</affiliation>
</author>
</analytic>
<series>
<title level="j">Physics of life reviews</title>
<idno type="ISSN">1571-0645</idno>
<idno type="eISSN">1873-1457</idno>
<imprint>
<date when="2016">2016</date>
</imprint>
</series>
</biblStruct>
</sourceDesc>
</fileDesc>
<profileDesc>
<textClass>
<keywords scheme="KwdEn" xml:lang="en">
<term>Communicable Diseases (epidemiology)</term>
<term>Epidemics</term>
<term>Humans</term>
<term>Models, Theoretical</term>
<term>Time Factors</term>
</keywords>
<keywords scheme="KwdFr" xml:lang="fr">
<term>Facteurs temps</term>
<term>Humains</term>
<term>Maladies transmissibles (épidémiologie)</term>
<term>Modèles théoriques</term>
<term>Épidémies</term>
</keywords>
<keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="epidemiology" xml:lang="en">
<term>Communicable Diseases</term>
</keywords>
<keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="épidémiologie" xml:lang="fr">
<term>Maladies transmissibles</term>
</keywords>
<keywords scheme="MESH" xml:lang="en">
<term>Epidemics</term>
<term>Humans</term>
<term>Models, Theoretical</term>
<term>Time Factors</term>
</keywords>
<keywords scheme="MESH" xml:lang="fr">
<term>Facteurs temps</term>
<term>Humains</term>
<term>Modèles théoriques</term>
<term>Épidémies</term>
</keywords>
</textClass>
</profileDesc>
</teiHeader>
<front>
<div type="abstract" xml:lang="en">
<p id="P1">There is a long tradition of using mathematical models to generate insights into the transmission dynamics of infectious diseases and assess the potential impact of different intervention strategies. The increasing use of mathematical models for epidemic forecasting has highlighted the importance of designing reliable models that capture the baseline transmission characteristics of specific pathogens and social contexts. More refined models are needed however, in particular to account for variation in the early growth dynamics of real epidemics and to gain a better understanding of the mechanisms at play. Here, we review recent progress on modeling and characterizing early epidemic growth patterns from infectious disease outbreak data, and survey the types of mathematical formulations that are most useful for capturing a diversity of early epidemic growth profiles, ranging from sub-exponential to exponential growth dynamics. Specifically, we review mathematical models that incorporate spatial details or realistic population mixing structures, including meta-population models, individual-based network models, and simple SIR-type models that incorporate the effects of reactive behavior changes or inhomogeneous mixing. In this process, we also analyze simulation data stemming from detailed large-scale agent-based models previously designed and calibrated to study how realistic social networks and disease transmission characteristics shape early epidemic growth patterns, general transmission dynamics, and control of international disease emergencies such as the 2009 A/H1N1 influenza pandemic and the 2014-15 Ebola epidemic in West Africa.</p>
</div>
</front>
</TEI>
<affiliations>
<list>
<country>
<li>États-Unis</li>
</country>
<region>
<li>District de Columbia</li>
<li>Géorgie (États-Unis)</li>
<li>Maryland</li>
<li>Missouri (État)</li>
</region>
<settlement>
<li>Washington (district de Columbia)</li>
</settlement>
</list>
<tree>
<country name="États-Unis">
<region name="Géorgie (États-Unis)">
<name sortKey="Chowell, Gerardo" sort="Chowell, Gerardo" uniqKey="Chowell G" first="Gerardo" last="Chowell">Gerardo Chowell</name>
</region>
<name sortKey="Bansal, Shweta" sort="Bansal, Shweta" uniqKey="Bansal S" first="Shweta" last="Bansal">Shweta Bansal</name>
<name sortKey="Bansal, Shweta" sort="Bansal, Shweta" uniqKey="Bansal S" first="Shweta" last="Bansal">Shweta Bansal</name>
<name sortKey="Chowell, Gerardo" sort="Chowell, Gerardo" uniqKey="Chowell G" first="Gerardo" last="Chowell">Gerardo Chowell</name>
<name sortKey="Sattenspiel, Lisa" sort="Sattenspiel, Lisa" uniqKey="Sattenspiel L" first="Lisa" last="Sattenspiel">Lisa Sattenspiel</name>
<name sortKey="Viboud, Cecile" sort="Viboud, Cecile" uniqKey="Viboud C" first="Cécile" last="Viboud">Cécile Viboud</name>
</country>
</tree>
</affiliations>
</record>

Pour manipuler ce document sous Unix (Dilib)

EXPLOR_STEP=$WICRI_ROOT/Sante/explor/PandemieGrippaleV1/Data/Main/Exploration
HfdSelect -h $EXPLOR_STEP/biblio.hfd -nk 000864 | SxmlIndent | more

Ou

HfdSelect -h $EXPLOR_AREA/Data/Main/Exploration/biblio.hfd -nk 000864 | SxmlIndent | more

Pour mettre un lien sur cette page dans le réseau Wicri

{{Explor lien
   |wiki=    Sante
   |area=    PandemieGrippaleV1
   |flux=    Main
   |étape=   Exploration
   |type=    RBID
   |clé=     PMC:5348083
   |texte=   Mathematical models to characterize early epidemic growth: A Review
}}

Pour générer des pages wiki

HfdIndexSelect -h $EXPLOR_AREA/Data/Main/Exploration/RBID.i   -Sk "pubmed:27451336" \
       | HfdSelect -Kh $EXPLOR_AREA/Data/Main/Exploration/biblio.hfd   \
       | NlmPubMed2Wicri -a PandemieGrippaleV1 

Wicri

This area was generated with Dilib version V0.6.34.
Data generation: Wed Jun 10 11:04:28 2020. Site generation: Sun Mar 28 09:10:28 2021