The influenza pandemic of 1918–1919 in Sri Lanka: its demographic cost, timing, and propagation
Identifieur interne : 000D73 ( Main/Exploration ); précédent : 000D72; suivant : 000D74The influenza pandemic of 1918–1919 in Sri Lanka: its demographic cost, timing, and propagation
Auteurs : Siddharth Chandra [États-Unis] ; Dilshani Sarathchandra [États-Unis]Source :
- Influenza and Other Respiratory Viruses [ 1750-2640 ] ; 2014.
Descripteurs français
- KwdFr :
- MESH :
- histoire : Grippe humaine.
- mortalité : Grippe humaine.
- physiologie : Sous-type H1N1 du virus de la grippe A.
- virologie : Grippe humaine.
- épidémiologie : Grippe humaine, Sri Lanka.
- Histoire du 20ème siècle, Humains, Pandémies, Répartition par âge, Saisons.
- Wicri :
- geographic : Sri Lanka.
English descriptors
- KwdEn :
- MESH :
- geographic , epidemiology : Sri Lanka.
- epidemiology : Influenza, Human.
- history : Influenza, Human.
- mortality : Influenza, Human.
- physiology : Influenza A Virus, H1N1 Subtype.
- virology : Influenza, Human.
- Age Distribution, History, 20th Century, Humans, Pandemics, Seasons.
Abstract
As an island and a former British colony, Sri Lanka is a case of special interest for the study of 1918–1919 influenza pandemic because of its potential for isolation from as well as integration into the world epidemiologic system.
To estimate population loss attributable to the influenza pandemic and weekly district-level excess mortality from the pandemic to analyze its spread across the island.
To measure population loss, we estimated a population growth model using a panel of 100 district-level observations on population for five consecutive censuses from 1891 to 1931, allowing for a one-time drop in population in 1918–1919. To estimate weekly excess mortality from the pandemic, we estimated a seasonally adjusted weekly time series of district-specific mortality estimates from vital registration records, ranked them, and plotted the ranks on weekly maps to create a picture of the geographic pattern of propagation across Sri Lanka.
Total loss of population from the influenza pandemic was 307 000 or approximately 6·7% of the population. The pandemic peaked in two discrete (northern and southern) regions in early October of 1918 and in a third (central) region in early March 1919.
The population loss estimate is significantly higher than earlier estimates of mortality from the pandemic in Sri Lanka, suggesting underreporting of influenza-attributable deaths and a role for influenza-related fertility declines. The spatial pattern of peak mortality indicates the presence of two distinct entry points and three distinct epidemiologic regions, defined by population density and ethnicity, in colonial Sri Lanka.
Url:
DOI: 10.1111/irv.12238
PubMed: 24612961
PubMed Central: 4181474
Affiliations:
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Le document en format XML
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Lanka: its demographic cost, timing, and propagation</title><author><name sortKey="Chandra, Siddharth" sort="Chandra, Siddharth" uniqKey="Chandra S" first="Siddharth" last="Chandra">Siddharth Chandra</name><affiliation wicri:level="2"><nlm:aff id="au1"><institution>Asian Studies Center, Michigan State University</institution><addr-line>East Lansing, MI, USA</addr-line></nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country><wicri:regionArea>East Lansing, MI</wicri:regionArea><placeName><region type="state">Michigan</region></placeName></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Sarathchandra, Dilshani" sort="Sarathchandra, Dilshani" uniqKey="Sarathchandra D" first="Dilshani" last="Sarathchandra">Dilshani Sarathchandra</name><affiliation wicri:level="2"><nlm:aff id="au2"><institution>Department of Sociology, Michigan State University</institution><addr-line>East Lansing, MI, USA</addr-line></nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country><wicri:regionArea>East Lansing, MI</wicri:regionArea><placeName><region type="state">Michigan</region></placeName></affiliation></author></analytic><series><title level="j">Influenza and Other Respiratory Viruses</title><idno type="ISSN">1750-2640</idno><idno type="eISSN">1750-2659</idno><imprint><date when="2014">2014</date></imprint></series></biblStruct></sourceDesc></fileDesc><profileDesc><textClass><keywords scheme="KwdEn" xml:lang="en"><term>Age Distribution</term><term>History, 20th Century</term><term>Humans</term><term>Influenza A Virus, H1N1 Subtype (physiology)</term><term>Influenza, Human (epidemiology)</term><term>Influenza, Human (history)</term><term>Influenza, Human (mortality)</term><term>Influenza, Human (virology)</term><term>Pandemics</term><term>Seasons</term><term>Sri Lanka (epidemiology)</term></keywords><keywords scheme="KwdFr" xml:lang="fr"><term>Grippe humaine (histoire)</term><term>Grippe humaine (mortalité)</term><term>Grippe humaine (virologie)</term><term>Grippe humaine (épidémiologie)</term><term>Histoire du 20ème siècle</term><term>Humains</term><term>Pandémies</term><term>Répartition par âge</term><term>Saisons</term><term>Sous-type H1N1 du virus de la grippe A (physiologie)</term><term>Sri Lanka (épidémiologie)</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" type="geographic" qualifier="epidemiology" xml:lang="en"><term>Sri Lanka</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="epidemiology" xml:lang="en"><term>Influenza, Human</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="histoire" xml:lang="fr"><term>Grippe humaine</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="history" xml:lang="en"><term>Influenza, Human</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="mortality" xml:lang="en"><term>Influenza, Human</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="mortalité" xml:lang="fr"><term>Grippe humaine</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="physiologie" xml:lang="fr"><term>Sous-type H1N1 du virus de la grippe A</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="physiology" xml:lang="en"><term>Influenza A Virus, H1N1 Subtype</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="virologie" xml:lang="fr"><term>Grippe humaine</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="virology" xml:lang="en"><term>Influenza, Human</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="épidémiologie" xml:lang="fr"><term>Grippe humaine</term><term>Sri Lanka</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" xml:lang="en"><term>Age Distribution</term><term>History, 20th Century</term><term>Humans</term><term>Pandemics</term><term>Seasons</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" xml:lang="fr"><term>Histoire du 20ème siècle</term><term>Humains</term><term>Pandémies</term><term>Répartition par âge</term><term>Saisons</term></keywords><keywords scheme="Wicri" type="geographic" xml:lang="fr"><term>Sri Lanka</term></keywords></textClass></profileDesc></teiHeader><front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en"><sec><title>Background</title><p>As an island and a former British colony, Sri Lanka is a case of special interest for the study of 1918–1919 influenza pandemic because of its potential for isolation from as well as integration into the world epidemiologic system.</p></sec><sec><title>Objectives</title><p>To estimate population loss attributable to the influenza pandemic and weekly district-level excess mortality from the pandemic to analyze its spread across the island.</p></sec><sec><title>Methods</title><p>To measure population loss, we estimated a population growth model using a panel of 100 district-level observations on population for five consecutive censuses from 1891 to 1931, allowing for a one-time drop in population in 1918–1919. To estimate weekly excess mortality from the pandemic, we estimated a seasonally adjusted weekly time series of district-specific mortality estimates from vital registration records, ranked them, and plotted the ranks on weekly maps to create a picture of the geographic pattern of propagation across Sri Lanka.</p></sec><sec><title>Results</title><p>Total loss of population from the influenza pandemic was 307 000 or approximately 6·7% of the population. The pandemic peaked in two discrete (northern and southern) regions in early October of 1918 and in a third (central) region in early March 1919.</p></sec><sec><title>Conclusions</title><p>The population loss estimate is significantly higher than earlier estimates of mortality from the pandemic in Sri Lanka, suggesting underreporting of influenza-attributable deaths and a role for influenza-related fertility declines. The spatial pattern of peak mortality indicates the presence of two distinct entry points and three distinct epidemiologic regions, defined by population density and ethnicity, in colonial Sri Lanka.</p></sec></div></front><back><div1 type="bibliography"><listBibl><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Murray, Cjl" uniqKey="Murray C">CJL Murray</name></author><author><name sortKey="Lopez, Ad" uniqKey="Lopez A">AD Lopez</name></author><author><name sortKey="Chin, B" uniqKey="Chin B">B Chin</name></author><author><name sortKey="Feehan, D" uniqKey="Feehan D">D Feehan</name></author><author><name sortKey="Hill, Kh" uniqKey="Hill K">KH Hill</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Mackellar, L" uniqKey="Mackellar L">L MacKellar</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Hollenbeck, Je" uniqKey="Hollenbeck J">JE Hollenbeck</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name 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uniqKey="Chandra S">S Chandra</name></author><author><name sortKey="Kassens Noor, E" uniqKey="Kassens Noor E">E Kassens-Noor</name></author><author><name sortKey="Kuljanin, G" uniqKey="Kuljanin G">G Kuljanin</name></author><author><name sortKey="Vertalka, J" uniqKey="Vertalka J">J Vertalka</name></author></analytic></biblStruct></listBibl></div1></back></TEI><affiliations><list><country><li>États-Unis</li></country><region><li>Michigan</li></region></list><tree><country name="États-Unis"><region name="Michigan"><name sortKey="Chandra, Siddharth" sort="Chandra, Siddharth" uniqKey="Chandra S" first="Siddharth" last="Chandra">Siddharth Chandra</name></region><name sortKey="Sarathchandra, Dilshani" sort="Sarathchandra, Dilshani" uniqKey="Sarathchandra D" first="Dilshani" last="Sarathchandra">Dilshani Sarathchandra</name></country></tree></affiliations></record>Pour manipuler ce document sous Unix (Dilib)
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