The spatiotemporal association of non-prescription retail sales with cases during the 2009 influenza pandemic in Great Britain
Identifieur interne : 000D72 ( Main/Exploration ); précédent : 000D71; suivant : 000D73The spatiotemporal association of non-prescription retail sales with cases during the 2009 influenza pandemic in Great Britain
Auteurs : Stacy Todd [Royaume-Uni, Viêt Nam] ; Peter J. Diggle [Royaume-Uni] ; Peter J. White [Royaume-Uni] ; Andrew Fearne [Royaume-Uni] ; Jonathan M. Read [Royaume-Uni]Source :
- BMJ Open [ 2044-6055 ] ; 2014.
Descripteurs français
- KwdFr :
- MESH :
- économie : Antiviraux, Médicaments sans ordonnance.
- épidémiologie : Grippe humaine, Royaume-Uni.
- Adulte, Commerce, Facteurs temps, Humains, Pandémies.
English descriptors
- KwdEn :
- MESH :
- chemical , economics : Antiviral Agents, Nonprescription Drugs.
- epidemiology : Influenza, Human, United Kingdom.
- Adult, Commerce, Humans, Pandemics, Time Factors.
Abstract
To assess whether retail sales of non-prescription products can be used for syndromic surveillance and whether it can detect influenza activity at different spatial scales. A secondary objective was to assess whether changes in purchasing behaviour were related to public health advice or levels of media or public interest.
The UK.
National and regional influenza case estimates and retail sales from a major British supermarket.
Weekly, seasonally adjusted sales of over-the-counter symptom remedies and non-pharmaceutical products; recommended as part of the advice offered by public health agencies; were compared with weekly influenza case estimates. Comparisons were made at national and regional spatial resolutions. We also compared sales to national measures of contemporaneous media output and public interest (Internet search volume) related to the pandemic.
At a national scale there was no significant correlation between retail sales of symptom remedies and cases for the whole pandemic period in 2009. At the regional scale, a minority of regions showed statistically significant positive correlations between cases and sales of adult ‘cold and flu’ remedies and cough remedies (3.2%, 5/156, 3.8%, 6/156), but a greater number of regions showed a significant positive correlation between cases and symptomatic remedies for children (35.6%, 55/156). Significant positive correlations between cases and sales of thermometers and antiviral hand gels/wash were seen at both spatial scales (Cor 0.477 (95% CI 0.171 to 0.699); 0.711 (95% CI 0.495 to 0.844)). We found no significant association between retail sales and media reporting or Internet search volume.
This study provides evidence that the British public responded appropriately to health messaging about hygiene. Non-prescription retail sales at a national level are not useful for the detection of cases. However, at finer spatial scales, in particular age-groups, retail sales may help augment existing surveillance and merit further study.
Url:
DOI: 10.1136/bmjopen-2014-004869
PubMed: 24780494
PubMed Central: 4010812
Affiliations:
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Diggle</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="af3"><institution>Institute of Infection and Global Health, University of Liverpool</institution>,<addr-line>Liverpool</addr-line>,<country>UK</country></nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">Royaume-Uni</country><wicri:regionArea># see nlm:aff country strict</wicri:regionArea></affiliation><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="af4"><institution>Lancaster Medical School, University of Lancaster</institution>,<addr-line>Lancaster</addr-line>,<country>UK</country></nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">Royaume-Uni</country><wicri:regionArea># see nlm:aff country strict</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="White, Peter J" sort="White, Peter J" uniqKey="White P" first="Peter J" last="White">Peter J. White</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="af5"><addr-line>Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology</addr-line>,<institution>MRC Centre for Outbreak Analysis and Modelling, Imperial College School of Public Health</institution>,<addr-line>London</addr-line>,<country>UK</country></nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">Royaume-Uni</country><wicri:regionArea># see nlm:aff country strict</wicri:regionArea></affiliation><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="af6"><addr-line>NIHR Health Protection Research Unit in Modelling Methodology, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology</addr-line>,<institution>Imperial College School of Public Health</institution>,<addr-line>London</addr-line>,<country>UK</country></nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">Royaume-Uni</country><wicri:regionArea># see nlm:aff country strict</wicri:regionArea></affiliation><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="af7"><addr-line>Modelling and Economics Unit</addr-line>,<institution>Centre for Infectious Disease Surveillance and Control, Public Health England</institution>,<addr-line>London</addr-line>,<country>UK</country></nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">Royaume-Uni</country><wicri:regionArea># see nlm:aff country strict</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Fearne, Andrew" sort="Fearne, Andrew" uniqKey="Fearne A" first="Andrew" last="Fearne">Andrew Fearne</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="af8"><institution>Kent Business School, University of Kent</institution>,<addr-line>Canterbury</addr-line>,<country>UK</country></nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">Royaume-Uni</country><wicri:regionArea># see nlm:aff country strict</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Read, Jonathan M" sort="Read, Jonathan M" uniqKey="Read J" first="Jonathan M" last="Read">Jonathan M. Read</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="af3"><institution>Institute of Infection and Global Health, University of Liverpool</institution>,<addr-line>Liverpool</addr-line>,<country>UK</country></nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">Royaume-Uni</country><wicri:regionArea># see nlm:aff country strict</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author></analytic><series><title level="j">BMJ Open</title><idno type="eISSN">2044-6055</idno><imprint><date when="2014">2014</date></imprint></series></biblStruct></sourceDesc></fileDesc><profileDesc><textClass><keywords scheme="KwdEn" xml:lang="en"><term>Adult</term><term>Antiviral Agents (economics)</term><term>Commerce</term><term>Humans</term><term>Influenza, Human (epidemiology)</term><term>Nonprescription Drugs (economics)</term><term>Pandemics</term><term>Time Factors</term><term>United Kingdom (epidemiology)</term></keywords><keywords scheme="KwdFr" xml:lang="fr"><term>Adulte</term><term>Antiviraux (économie)</term><term>Commerce</term><term>Facteurs temps</term><term>Grippe humaine (épidémiologie)</term><term>Humains</term><term>Médicaments sans ordonnance (économie)</term><term>Pandémies</term><term>Royaume-Uni (épidémiologie)</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" type="chemical" qualifier="economics" xml:lang="en"><term>Antiviral Agents</term><term>Nonprescription Drugs</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="epidemiology" xml:lang="en"><term>Influenza, Human</term><term>United Kingdom</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="économie" xml:lang="fr"><term>Antiviraux</term><term>Médicaments sans ordonnance</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="épidémiologie" xml:lang="fr"><term>Grippe humaine</term><term>Royaume-Uni</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" xml:lang="en"><term>Adult</term><term>Commerce</term><term>Humans</term><term>Pandemics</term><term>Time Factors</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" xml:lang="fr"><term>Adulte</term><term>Commerce</term><term>Facteurs temps</term><term>Humains</term><term>Pandémies</term></keywords></textClass></profileDesc></teiHeader><front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en"><sec><title>Objective</title><p>To assess whether retail sales of non-prescription products can be used for syndromic surveillance and whether it can detect influenza activity at different spatial scales. A secondary objective was to assess whether changes in purchasing behaviour were related to public health advice or levels of media or public interest.</p></sec><sec><title>Setting</title><p>The UK.</p></sec><sec><title>Participants</title><p>National and regional influenza case estimates and retail sales from a major British supermarket.</p></sec><sec><title>Outcome measures</title><p>Weekly, seasonally adjusted sales of over-the-counter symptom remedies and non-pharmaceutical products; recommended as part of the advice offered by public health agencies; were compared with weekly influenza case estimates. Comparisons were made at national and regional spatial resolutions. We also compared sales to national measures of contemporaneous media output and public interest (Internet search volume) related to the pandemic.</p></sec><sec><title>Results</title><p>At a national scale there was no significant correlation between retail sales of symptom remedies and cases for the whole pandemic period in 2009. At the regional scale, a minority of regions showed statistically significant positive correlations between cases and sales of adult ‘cold and flu’ remedies and cough remedies (3.2%, 5/156, 3.8%, 6/156), but a greater number of regions showed a significant positive correlation between cases and symptomatic remedies for children (35.6%, 55/156). Significant positive correlations between cases and sales of thermometers and antiviral hand gels/wash were seen at both spatial scales (Cor 0.477 (95% CI 0.171 to 0.699); 0.711 (95% CI 0.495 to 0.844)). We found no significant association between retail sales and media reporting or Internet search volume.</p></sec><sec><title>Conclusions</title><p>This study provides evidence that the British public responded appropriately to health messaging about hygiene. Non-prescription retail sales at a national level are not useful for the detection of cases. However, at finer spatial scales, in particular age-groups, retail sales may help augment existing surveillance and merit further study.</p></sec></div></front><back><div1 type="bibliography"><listBibl><biblStruct></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Ortiz, Jr Sv" uniqKey="Ortiz J">JR SV Ortiz</name></author><author><name sortKey="Uez, Oc" uniqKey="Uez O">OC Uez</name></author><author><name sortKey="Oliva, O" uniqKey="Oliva O">O Oliva</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Triple, Sp" uniqKey="Triple S">SP Triple</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Briand, S" uniqKey="Briand S">S Briand</name></author><author><name sortKey="Mounts, A" uniqKey="Mounts A">A Mounts</name></author><author><name sortKey="Chamberland, M" uniqKey="Chamberland M">M Chamberland</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Lipsitch, M" uniqKey="Lipsitch M">M 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uniqKey="Pebody R">RG Pebody</name></author><author><name sortKey="Paterson, Bj" uniqKey="Paterson B">BJ Paterson</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Vernacchio, L" uniqKey="Vernacchio L">L Vernacchio</name></author><author><name sortKey="Kelly, Jp" uniqKey="Kelly J">JP Kelly</name></author><author><name sortKey="Kaufman, Dw" uniqKey="Kaufman D">DW Kaufman</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Rubin, Gj" uniqKey="Rubin G">GJ Rubin</name></author><author><name sortKey="Amlot, R" uniqKey="Amlot R">R Amlôt</name></author><author><name sortKey="Page, L" uniqKey="Page L">L Page</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Steelfisher, Gk" uniqKey="Steelfisher G">GK SteelFisher</name></author><author><name sortKey="Blendon, Rj" uniqKey="Blendon R">RJ Blendon</name></author><author><name sortKey="Ward, Jrm" uniqKey="Ward J">JRM Ward</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Fleischman, Ds" uniqKey="Fleischman D">DS Fleischman</name></author><author><name sortKey="Webster, Gd" uniqKey="Webster G">GD Webster</name></author><author><name sortKey="Judah, G" uniqKey="Judah G">G Judah</name></author></analytic></biblStruct></listBibl></div1></back></TEI><affiliations><list><country><li>Royaume-Uni</li><li>Viêt Nam</li></country></list><tree><country name="Royaume-Uni"><noRegion><name sortKey="Todd, Stacy" sort="Todd, Stacy" uniqKey="Todd S" first="Stacy" last="Todd">Stacy Todd</name></noRegion><name sortKey="Diggle, Peter J" sort="Diggle, Peter J" uniqKey="Diggle P" first="Peter J" last="Diggle">Peter J. Diggle</name><name sortKey="Diggle, Peter J" sort="Diggle, Peter J" uniqKey="Diggle P" first="Peter J" last="Diggle">Peter J. Diggle</name><name sortKey="Fearne, Andrew" sort="Fearne, Andrew" uniqKey="Fearne A" first="Andrew" last="Fearne">Andrew Fearne</name><name sortKey="Read, Jonathan M" sort="Read, Jonathan M" uniqKey="Read J" first="Jonathan M" last="Read">Jonathan M. Read</name><name sortKey="White, Peter J" sort="White, Peter J" uniqKey="White P" first="Peter J" last="White">Peter J. White</name><name sortKey="White, Peter J" sort="White, Peter J" uniqKey="White P" first="Peter J" last="White">Peter J. White</name><name sortKey="White, Peter J" sort="White, Peter J" uniqKey="White P" first="Peter J" last="White">Peter J. White</name></country><country name="Viêt Nam"><noRegion><name sortKey="Todd, Stacy" sort="Todd, Stacy" uniqKey="Todd S" first="Stacy" last="Todd">Stacy Todd</name></noRegion></country></tree></affiliations></record>Pour manipuler ce document sous Unix (Dilib)
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