PandemieGrippaleV1, Main, Exploration, bibRecord, 000861

Model-based reconstruction of an epidemic using multiple datasets: understanding influenza A/H1N1 pandemic dynamics in Israel

Identifieur interne : 000861 ( Main/Exploration ); précédent : 000860; suivant : 000862

Model-based reconstruction of an epidemic using multiple datasets: understanding influenza A/H1N1 pandemic dynamics in Israel

Auteurs : R. Yaari [Israël] ; G. Katriel [Israël] ; L. Stone [Israël, Australie] ; E. Mendelson [Israël] ; M. Mandelboim [Israël] ; A. Huppert [Israël]

Source :

Journal of the Royal Society Interface [ 1742-5689 ] ; 2016.

RBID : PMC:4843683

Descripteurs français

KwdFr :
- Adolescent, Adulte, Adulte d'âge moyen, Bases de données factuelles, Enfant, Enfant d'âge préscolaire, Femelle, Grippe humaine (), Grippe humaine (épidémiologie), Humains, Modèles biologiques, Mâle, Nourrisson, Nouveau-né, Pandémies, Sous-type H1N1 du virus de la grippe A, Sujet âgé, Sujet âgé de 80 ans ou plus, Vaccination.
MESH :
- épidémiologie : Grippe humaine.
- Adolescent, Adulte, Adulte d'âge moyen, Bases de données factuelles, Enfant, Enfant d'âge préscolaire, Femelle, Grippe humaine, Humains, Modèles biologiques, Mâle, Nourrisson, Nouveau-né, Pandémies, Sous-type H1N1 du virus de la grippe A, Sujet âgé, Sujet âgé de 80 ans ou plus, Vaccination.

English descriptors

KwdEn :
- Adolescent, Adult, Aged, Aged, 80 and over, Child, Child, Preschool, Databases, Factual, Female, Humans, Infant, Infant, Newborn, Influenza A Virus, H1N1 Subtype, Influenza, Human (epidemiology), Influenza, Human (prevention & control), Male, Middle Aged, Models, Biological, Pandemics, Vaccination.
MESH :
- epidemiology : Influenza, Human.
- prevention & control : Influenza, Human.
- Adolescent, Adult, Aged, Aged, 80 and over, Child, Child, Preschool, Databases, Factual, Female, Humans, Infant, Infant, Newborn, Influenza A Virus, H1N1 Subtype, Male, Middle Aged, Models, Biological, Pandemics, Vaccination.

Abstract

Intensified surveillance during the 2009 A/H1N1 influenza pandemic in Israel resulted in large virological and serological datasets, presenting a unique opportunity for investigating the pandemic dynamics. We employ a conditional likelihood approach for fitting a disease transmission model to virological and serological data, conditional on clinical data. The model is used to reconstruct the temporal pattern of the pandemic in Israel in five age-groups and evaluate the factors that shaped it. We estimate the reproductive number at the beginning of the pandemic to be R = 1.4. We find that the combined effect of varying absolute humidity conditions and school vacations (SVs) is responsible for the infection pattern, characterized by three epidemic waves. Overall attack rate is estimated at 32% (28–35%) with a large variation among the age-groups: the highest attack rates within school children and the lowest within the elderly. This pattern of infection is explained by a combination of the age-group contact structure and increasing immunity with age. We assess that SVs increased the overall attack rates by prolonging the pandemic into the winter. Vaccinating school children would have been the optimal strategy for minimizing infection rates in all age-groups.

Url:

http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4843683

DOI: 10.1098/rsif.2016.0099
PubMed: 27030041
PubMed Central: 4843683

Affiliations:

Australie, Israël

Le document en format XML

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<front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en"><p>Intensified surveillance during the 2009 A/H1N1 influenza pandemic in Israel resulted in large virological and serological datasets, presenting a unique opportunity for investigating the pandemic dynamics. We employ a conditional likelihood approach for fitting a disease transmission model to virological and serological data, conditional on clinical data. The model is used to reconstruct the temporal pattern of the pandemic in Israel in five age-groups and evaluate the factors that shaped it. We estimate the reproductive number at the beginning of the pandemic to be <italic>R</italic>
 = 1.4. We find that the combined effect of varying absolute humidity conditions and school vacations (SVs) is responsible for the infection pattern, characterized by three epidemic waves. Overall attack rate is estimated at 32% (28–35%) with a large variation among the age-groups: the highest attack rates within school children and the lowest within the elderly. This pattern of infection is explained by a combination of the age-group contact structure and increasing immunity with age. We assess that SVs increased the overall attack rates by prolonging the pandemic into the winter. Vaccinating school children would have been the optimal strategy for minimizing infection rates in all age-groups.</p>
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Serveur d'exploration sur les pandémies grippales

Model-based reconstruction of an epidemic using multiple datasets: understanding influenza A/H1N1 pandemic dynamics in Israel

Model-based reconstruction of an epidemic using multiple datasets: understanding influenza A/H1N1 pandemic dynamics in Israel

Source :

Descripteurs français

English descriptors

Abstract

Links toward previous steps (curation, corpus...)

Le document en format XML

Pour manipuler ce document sous Unix (Dilib)

Pour mettre un lien sur cette page dans le réseau Wicri

Pour générer des pages wiki

	Serveur d'exploration sur les pandémies grippales
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