Model-based reconstruction of an epidemic using multiple datasets: understanding influenza A/H1N1 pandemic dynamics in Israel
Identifieur interne : 001B50 ( Ncbi/Merge ); précédent : 001B49; suivant : 001B51Model-based reconstruction of an epidemic using multiple datasets: understanding influenza A/H1N1 pandemic dynamics in Israel
Auteurs : R. Yaari [Israël] ; G. Katriel [Israël] ; L. Stone [Israël, Australie] ; E. Mendelson [Israël] ; M. Mandelboim [Israël] ; A. Huppert [Israël]Source :
- Journal of the Royal Society Interface [ 1742-5689 ] ; 2016.
Descripteurs français
- KwdFr :
- Adolescent, Adulte, Adulte d'âge moyen, Bases de données factuelles, Enfant, Enfant d'âge préscolaire, Femelle, Grippe humaine (), Grippe humaine (épidémiologie), Humains, Modèles biologiques, Mâle, Nourrisson, Nouveau-né, Pandémies, Sous-type H1N1 du virus de la grippe A, Sujet âgé, Sujet âgé de 80 ans ou plus, Vaccination.
- MESH :
- épidémiologie : Grippe humaine.
- Adolescent, Adulte, Adulte d'âge moyen, Bases de données factuelles, Enfant, Enfant d'âge préscolaire, Femelle, Grippe humaine, Humains, Modèles biologiques, Mâle, Nourrisson, Nouveau-né, Pandémies, Sous-type H1N1 du virus de la grippe A, Sujet âgé, Sujet âgé de 80 ans ou plus, Vaccination.
English descriptors
- KwdEn :
- MESH :
- epidemiology : Influenza, Human.
- prevention & control : Influenza, Human.
- Adolescent, Adult, Aged, Aged, 80 and over, Child, Child, Preschool, Databases, Factual, Female, Humans, Infant, Infant, Newborn, Influenza A Virus, H1N1 Subtype, Male, Middle Aged, Models, Biological, Pandemics, Vaccination.
Abstract
Intensified surveillance during the 2009 A/H1N1 influenza pandemic in Israel resulted in large virological and serological datasets, presenting a unique opportunity for investigating the pandemic dynamics. We employ a conditional likelihood approach for fitting a disease transmission model to virological and serological data, conditional on clinical data. The model is used to reconstruct the temporal pattern of the pandemic in Israel in five age-groups and evaluate the factors that shaped it. We estimate the reproductive number at the beginning of the pandemic to be
Url:
DOI: 10.1098/rsif.2016.0099
PubMed: 27030041
PubMed Central: 4843683
Links toward previous steps (curation, corpus...)
- to stream Pmc, to step Corpus: 000728
- to stream Pmc, to step Curation: 000728
- to stream Pmc, to step Checkpoint: 000290
- to stream PubMed, to step Corpus: 000541
- to stream PubMed, to step Curation: 000541
- to stream PubMed, to step Checkpoint: 000485
Links to Exploration step
PMC:4843683Le document en format XML
<record><TEI><teiHeader><fileDesc><titleStmt><title xml:lang="en">Model-based reconstruction of an epidemic using multiple datasets: understanding influenza A/H1N1 pandemic dynamics in Israel</title>
<author><name sortKey="Yaari, R" sort="Yaari, R" uniqKey="Yaari R" first="R." last="Yaari">R. Yaari</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="af1"><addr-line>Bio-statistical Unit, The Gertner Institute for Epidemiology and Health Policy Research</addr-line>
,<institution>Chaim Sheba Medical Center</institution>
,<addr-line>Tel-Hashomer 52621</addr-line>
,<country>Israel</country>
</nlm:aff>
<country xml:lang="fr">Israël</country>
<wicri:regionArea># see nlm:aff country strict</wicri:regionArea>
</affiliation>
<affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="af3"><addr-line>Zoology Department</addr-line>
,<institution>Tel-Aviv University</institution>
,<addr-line>Ramat Aviv 69778</addr-line>
,<country>Israel</country>
</nlm:aff>
<country xml:lang="fr">Israël</country>
<wicri:regionArea># see nlm:aff country strict</wicri:regionArea>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Katriel, G" sort="Katriel, G" uniqKey="Katriel G" first="G." last="Katriel">G. Katriel</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="af4"><addr-line>Department of Mathematics</addr-line>
,<institution>ORT Braude College</institution>
,<addr-line>Karmiel 21610</addr-line>
,<country>Israel</country>
</nlm:aff>
<country xml:lang="fr">Israël</country>
<wicri:regionArea># see nlm:aff country strict</wicri:regionArea>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Stone, L" sort="Stone, L" uniqKey="Stone L" first="L." last="Stone">L. Stone</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="af3"><addr-line>Zoology Department</addr-line>
,<institution>Tel-Aviv University</institution>
,<addr-line>Ramat Aviv 69778</addr-line>
,<country>Israel</country>
</nlm:aff>
<country xml:lang="fr">Israël</country>
<wicri:regionArea># see nlm:aff country strict</wicri:regionArea>
</affiliation>
<affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="af5"><addr-line>School of Mathematical and Geospatial Sciences</addr-line>
,<institution>RMIT University</institution>
,<addr-line>Melbourne, Victoria 3001</addr-line>
,<country>Australia</country>
</nlm:aff>
<country xml:lang="fr">Australie</country>
<wicri:regionArea># see nlm:aff country strict</wicri:regionArea>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Mendelson, E" sort="Mendelson, E" uniqKey="Mendelson E" first="E." last="Mendelson">E. Mendelson</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="af2"><addr-line>Central Virology Laboratory, Ministry of Health</addr-line>
,<institution>Chaim Sheba Medical Center</institution>
,<addr-line>Tel-Hashomer 52621</addr-line>
,<country>Israel</country>
</nlm:aff>
<country xml:lang="fr">Israël</country>
<wicri:regionArea># see nlm:aff country strict</wicri:regionArea>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Mandelboim, M" sort="Mandelboim, M" uniqKey="Mandelboim M" first="M." last="Mandelboim">M. Mandelboim</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="af2"><addr-line>Central Virology Laboratory, Ministry of Health</addr-line>
,<institution>Chaim Sheba Medical Center</institution>
,<addr-line>Tel-Hashomer 52621</addr-line>
,<country>Israel</country>
</nlm:aff>
<country xml:lang="fr">Israël</country>
<wicri:regionArea># see nlm:aff country strict</wicri:regionArea>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Huppert, A" sort="Huppert, A" uniqKey="Huppert A" first="A." last="Huppert">A. Huppert</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="af1"><addr-line>Bio-statistical Unit, The Gertner Institute for Epidemiology and Health Policy Research</addr-line>
,<institution>Chaim Sheba Medical Center</institution>
,<addr-line>Tel-Hashomer 52621</addr-line>
,<country>Israel</country>
</nlm:aff>
<country xml:lang="fr">Israël</country>
<wicri:regionArea># see nlm:aff country strict</wicri:regionArea>
</affiliation>
<affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="af6"><addr-line>Sackler Faculty of Medicine</addr-line>
,<institution>Tel-Aviv University</institution>
,<addr-line>Ramat Aviv 69778</addr-line>
,<country>Israel</country>
</nlm:aff>
<country xml:lang="fr">Israël</country>
<wicri:regionArea># see nlm:aff country strict</wicri:regionArea>
</affiliation>
</author>
</titleStmt>
<publicationStmt><idno type="wicri:source">PMC</idno>
<idno type="pmid">27030041</idno>
<idno type="pmc">4843683</idno>
<idno type="url">http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4843683</idno>
<idno type="RBID">PMC:4843683</idno>
<idno type="doi">10.1098/rsif.2016.0099</idno>
<date when="2016">2016</date>
<idno type="wicri:Area/Pmc/Corpus">000728</idno>
<idno type="wicri:explorRef" wicri:stream="Pmc" wicri:step="Corpus" wicri:corpus="PMC">000728</idno>
<idno type="wicri:Area/Pmc/Curation">000728</idno>
<idno type="wicri:explorRef" wicri:stream="Pmc" wicri:step="Curation">000728</idno>
<idno type="wicri:Area/Pmc/Checkpoint">000290</idno>
<idno type="wicri:explorRef" wicri:stream="Pmc" wicri:step="Checkpoint">000290</idno>
<idno type="wicri:source">PubMed</idno>
<idno type="RBID">pubmed:27030041</idno>
<idno type="wicri:Area/PubMed/Corpus">000541</idno>
<idno type="wicri:explorRef" wicri:stream="PubMed" wicri:step="Corpus" wicri:corpus="PubMed">000541</idno>
<idno type="wicri:Area/PubMed/Curation">000541</idno>
<idno type="wicri:explorRef" wicri:stream="PubMed" wicri:step="Curation">000541</idno>
<idno type="wicri:Area/PubMed/Checkpoint">000485</idno>
<idno type="wicri:explorRef" wicri:stream="Checkpoint" wicri:step="PubMed">000485</idno>
<idno type="wicri:Area/Ncbi/Merge">001B50</idno>
</publicationStmt>
<sourceDesc><biblStruct><analytic><title xml:lang="en" level="a" type="main">Model-based reconstruction of an epidemic using multiple datasets: understanding influenza A/H1N1 pandemic dynamics in Israel</title>
<author><name sortKey="Yaari, R" sort="Yaari, R" uniqKey="Yaari R" first="R." last="Yaari">R. Yaari</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="af1"><addr-line>Bio-statistical Unit, The Gertner Institute for Epidemiology and Health Policy Research</addr-line>
,<institution>Chaim Sheba Medical Center</institution>
,<addr-line>Tel-Hashomer 52621</addr-line>
,<country>Israel</country>
</nlm:aff>
<country xml:lang="fr">Israël</country>
<wicri:regionArea># see nlm:aff country strict</wicri:regionArea>
</affiliation>
<affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="af3"><addr-line>Zoology Department</addr-line>
,<institution>Tel-Aviv University</institution>
,<addr-line>Ramat Aviv 69778</addr-line>
,<country>Israel</country>
</nlm:aff>
<country xml:lang="fr">Israël</country>
<wicri:regionArea># see nlm:aff country strict</wicri:regionArea>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Katriel, G" sort="Katriel, G" uniqKey="Katriel G" first="G." last="Katriel">G. Katriel</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="af4"><addr-line>Department of Mathematics</addr-line>
,<institution>ORT Braude College</institution>
,<addr-line>Karmiel 21610</addr-line>
,<country>Israel</country>
</nlm:aff>
<country xml:lang="fr">Israël</country>
<wicri:regionArea># see nlm:aff country strict</wicri:regionArea>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Stone, L" sort="Stone, L" uniqKey="Stone L" first="L." last="Stone">L. Stone</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="af3"><addr-line>Zoology Department</addr-line>
,<institution>Tel-Aviv University</institution>
,<addr-line>Ramat Aviv 69778</addr-line>
,<country>Israel</country>
</nlm:aff>
<country xml:lang="fr">Israël</country>
<wicri:regionArea># see nlm:aff country strict</wicri:regionArea>
</affiliation>
<affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="af5"><addr-line>School of Mathematical and Geospatial Sciences</addr-line>
,<institution>RMIT University</institution>
,<addr-line>Melbourne, Victoria 3001</addr-line>
,<country>Australia</country>
</nlm:aff>
<country xml:lang="fr">Australie</country>
<wicri:regionArea># see nlm:aff country strict</wicri:regionArea>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Mendelson, E" sort="Mendelson, E" uniqKey="Mendelson E" first="E." last="Mendelson">E. Mendelson</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="af2"><addr-line>Central Virology Laboratory, Ministry of Health</addr-line>
,<institution>Chaim Sheba Medical Center</institution>
,<addr-line>Tel-Hashomer 52621</addr-line>
,<country>Israel</country>
</nlm:aff>
<country xml:lang="fr">Israël</country>
<wicri:regionArea># see nlm:aff country strict</wicri:regionArea>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Mandelboim, M" sort="Mandelboim, M" uniqKey="Mandelboim M" first="M." last="Mandelboim">M. Mandelboim</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="af2"><addr-line>Central Virology Laboratory, Ministry of Health</addr-line>
,<institution>Chaim Sheba Medical Center</institution>
,<addr-line>Tel-Hashomer 52621</addr-line>
,<country>Israel</country>
</nlm:aff>
<country xml:lang="fr">Israël</country>
<wicri:regionArea># see nlm:aff country strict</wicri:regionArea>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Huppert, A" sort="Huppert, A" uniqKey="Huppert A" first="A." last="Huppert">A. Huppert</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="af1"><addr-line>Bio-statistical Unit, The Gertner Institute for Epidemiology and Health Policy Research</addr-line>
,<institution>Chaim Sheba Medical Center</institution>
,<addr-line>Tel-Hashomer 52621</addr-line>
,<country>Israel</country>
</nlm:aff>
<country xml:lang="fr">Israël</country>
<wicri:regionArea># see nlm:aff country strict</wicri:regionArea>
</affiliation>
<affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="af6"><addr-line>Sackler Faculty of Medicine</addr-line>
,<institution>Tel-Aviv University</institution>
,<addr-line>Ramat Aviv 69778</addr-line>
,<country>Israel</country>
</nlm:aff>
<country xml:lang="fr">Israël</country>
<wicri:regionArea># see nlm:aff country strict</wicri:regionArea>
</affiliation>
</author>
</analytic>
<series><title level="j">Journal of the Royal Society Interface</title>
<idno type="ISSN">1742-5689</idno>
<idno type="eISSN">1742-5662</idno>
<imprint><date when="2016">2016</date>
</imprint>
</series>
</biblStruct>
</sourceDesc>
</fileDesc>
<profileDesc><textClass><keywords scheme="KwdEn" xml:lang="en"><term>Adolescent</term>
<term>Adult</term>
<term>Aged</term>
<term>Aged, 80 and over</term>
<term>Child</term>
<term>Child, Preschool</term>
<term>Databases, Factual</term>
<term>Female</term>
<term>Humans</term>
<term>Infant</term>
<term>Infant, Newborn</term>
<term>Influenza A Virus, H1N1 Subtype</term>
<term>Influenza, Human (epidemiology)</term>
<term>Influenza, Human (prevention & control)</term>
<term>Male</term>
<term>Middle Aged</term>
<term>Models, Biological</term>
<term>Pandemics</term>
<term>Vaccination</term>
</keywords>
<keywords scheme="KwdFr" xml:lang="fr"><term>Adolescent</term>
<term>Adulte</term>
<term>Adulte d'âge moyen</term>
<term>Bases de données factuelles</term>
<term>Enfant</term>
<term>Enfant d'âge préscolaire</term>
<term>Femelle</term>
<term>Grippe humaine ()</term>
<term>Grippe humaine (épidémiologie)</term>
<term>Humains</term>
<term>Modèles biologiques</term>
<term>Mâle</term>
<term>Nourrisson</term>
<term>Nouveau-né</term>
<term>Pandémies</term>
<term>Sous-type H1N1 du virus de la grippe A</term>
<term>Sujet âgé</term>
<term>Sujet âgé de 80 ans ou plus</term>
<term>Vaccination</term>
</keywords>
<keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="epidemiology" xml:lang="en"><term>Influenza, Human</term>
</keywords>
<keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="prevention & control" xml:lang="en"><term>Influenza, Human</term>
</keywords>
<keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="épidémiologie" xml:lang="fr"><term>Grippe humaine</term>
</keywords>
<keywords scheme="MESH" xml:lang="en"><term>Adolescent</term>
<term>Adult</term>
<term>Aged</term>
<term>Aged, 80 and over</term>
<term>Child</term>
<term>Child, Preschool</term>
<term>Databases, Factual</term>
<term>Female</term>
<term>Humans</term>
<term>Infant</term>
<term>Infant, Newborn</term>
<term>Influenza A Virus, H1N1 Subtype</term>
<term>Male</term>
<term>Middle Aged</term>
<term>Models, Biological</term>
<term>Pandemics</term>
<term>Vaccination</term>
</keywords>
<keywords scheme="MESH" xml:lang="fr"><term>Adolescent</term>
<term>Adulte</term>
<term>Adulte d'âge moyen</term>
<term>Bases de données factuelles</term>
<term>Enfant</term>
<term>Enfant d'âge préscolaire</term>
<term>Femelle</term>
<term>Grippe humaine</term>
<term>Humains</term>
<term>Modèles biologiques</term>
<term>Mâle</term>
<term>Nourrisson</term>
<term>Nouveau-né</term>
<term>Pandémies</term>
<term>Sous-type H1N1 du virus de la grippe A</term>
<term>Sujet âgé</term>
<term>Sujet âgé de 80 ans ou plus</term>
<term>Vaccination</term>
</keywords>
</textClass>
</profileDesc>
</teiHeader>
<front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en"><p>Intensified surveillance during the 2009 A/H1N1 influenza pandemic in Israel resulted in large virological and serological datasets, presenting a unique opportunity for investigating the pandemic dynamics. We employ a conditional likelihood approach for fitting a disease transmission model to virological and serological data, conditional on clinical data. The model is used to reconstruct the temporal pattern of the pandemic in Israel in five age-groups and evaluate the factors that shaped it. We estimate the reproductive number at the beginning of the pandemic to be <italic>R</italic>
= 1.4. We find that the combined effect of varying absolute humidity conditions and school vacations (SVs) is responsible for the infection pattern, characterized by three epidemic waves. Overall attack rate is estimated at 32% (28–35%) with a large variation among the age-groups: the highest attack rates within school children and the lowest within the elderly. This pattern of infection is explained by a combination of the age-group contact structure and increasing immunity with age. We assess that SVs increased the overall attack rates by prolonging the pandemic into the winter. Vaccinating school children would have been the optimal strategy for minimizing infection rates in all age-groups.</p>
</div>
</front>
</TEI>
<double pmid="27030041"><pmc><TEI><teiHeader><fileDesc><titleStmt><title xml:lang="en">Model-based reconstruction of an epidemic using multiple datasets: understanding influenza A/H1N1 pandemic dynamics in Israel</title>
<author><name sortKey="Yaari, R" sort="Yaari, R" uniqKey="Yaari R" first="R." last="Yaari">R. Yaari</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="af1"><addr-line>Bio-statistical Unit, The Gertner Institute for Epidemiology and Health Policy Research</addr-line>
,<institution>Chaim Sheba Medical Center</institution>
,<addr-line>Tel-Hashomer 52621</addr-line>
,<country>Israel</country>
</nlm:aff>
<country xml:lang="fr">Israël</country>
<wicri:regionArea># see nlm:aff country strict</wicri:regionArea>
</affiliation>
<affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="af3"><addr-line>Zoology Department</addr-line>
,<institution>Tel-Aviv University</institution>
,<addr-line>Ramat Aviv 69778</addr-line>
,<country>Israel</country>
</nlm:aff>
<country xml:lang="fr">Israël</country>
<wicri:regionArea># see nlm:aff country strict</wicri:regionArea>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Katriel, G" sort="Katriel, G" uniqKey="Katriel G" first="G." last="Katriel">G. Katriel</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="af4"><addr-line>Department of Mathematics</addr-line>
,<institution>ORT Braude College</institution>
,<addr-line>Karmiel 21610</addr-line>
,<country>Israel</country>
</nlm:aff>
<country xml:lang="fr">Israël</country>
<wicri:regionArea># see nlm:aff country strict</wicri:regionArea>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Stone, L" sort="Stone, L" uniqKey="Stone L" first="L." last="Stone">L. Stone</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="af3"><addr-line>Zoology Department</addr-line>
,<institution>Tel-Aviv University</institution>
,<addr-line>Ramat Aviv 69778</addr-line>
,<country>Israel</country>
</nlm:aff>
<country xml:lang="fr">Israël</country>
<wicri:regionArea># see nlm:aff country strict</wicri:regionArea>
</affiliation>
<affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="af5"><addr-line>School of Mathematical and Geospatial Sciences</addr-line>
,<institution>RMIT University</institution>
,<addr-line>Melbourne, Victoria 3001</addr-line>
,<country>Australia</country>
</nlm:aff>
<country xml:lang="fr">Australie</country>
<wicri:regionArea># see nlm:aff country strict</wicri:regionArea>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Mendelson, E" sort="Mendelson, E" uniqKey="Mendelson E" first="E." last="Mendelson">E. Mendelson</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="af2"><addr-line>Central Virology Laboratory, Ministry of Health</addr-line>
,<institution>Chaim Sheba Medical Center</institution>
,<addr-line>Tel-Hashomer 52621</addr-line>
,<country>Israel</country>
</nlm:aff>
<country xml:lang="fr">Israël</country>
<wicri:regionArea># see nlm:aff country strict</wicri:regionArea>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Mandelboim, M" sort="Mandelboim, M" uniqKey="Mandelboim M" first="M." last="Mandelboim">M. Mandelboim</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="af2"><addr-line>Central Virology Laboratory, Ministry of Health</addr-line>
,<institution>Chaim Sheba Medical Center</institution>
,<addr-line>Tel-Hashomer 52621</addr-line>
,<country>Israel</country>
</nlm:aff>
<country xml:lang="fr">Israël</country>
<wicri:regionArea># see nlm:aff country strict</wicri:regionArea>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Huppert, A" sort="Huppert, A" uniqKey="Huppert A" first="A." last="Huppert">A. Huppert</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="af1"><addr-line>Bio-statistical Unit, The Gertner Institute for Epidemiology and Health Policy Research</addr-line>
,<institution>Chaim Sheba Medical Center</institution>
,<addr-line>Tel-Hashomer 52621</addr-line>
,<country>Israel</country>
</nlm:aff>
<country xml:lang="fr">Israël</country>
<wicri:regionArea># see nlm:aff country strict</wicri:regionArea>
</affiliation>
<affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="af6"><addr-line>Sackler Faculty of Medicine</addr-line>
,<institution>Tel-Aviv University</institution>
,<addr-line>Ramat Aviv 69778</addr-line>
,<country>Israel</country>
</nlm:aff>
<country xml:lang="fr">Israël</country>
<wicri:regionArea># see nlm:aff country strict</wicri:regionArea>
</affiliation>
</author>
</titleStmt>
<publicationStmt><idno type="wicri:source">PMC</idno>
<idno type="pmid">27030041</idno>
<idno type="pmc">4843683</idno>
<idno type="url">http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4843683</idno>
<idno type="RBID">PMC:4843683</idno>
<idno type="doi">10.1098/rsif.2016.0099</idno>
<date when="2016">2016</date>
<idno type="wicri:Area/Pmc/Corpus">000728</idno>
<idno type="wicri:explorRef" wicri:stream="Pmc" wicri:step="Corpus" wicri:corpus="PMC">000728</idno>
<idno type="wicri:Area/Pmc/Curation">000728</idno>
<idno type="wicri:explorRef" wicri:stream="Pmc" wicri:step="Curation">000728</idno>
<idno type="wicri:Area/Pmc/Checkpoint">000290</idno>
<idno type="wicri:explorRef" wicri:stream="Pmc" wicri:step="Checkpoint">000290</idno>
</publicationStmt>
<sourceDesc><biblStruct><analytic><title xml:lang="en" level="a" type="main">Model-based reconstruction of an epidemic using multiple datasets: understanding influenza A/H1N1 pandemic dynamics in Israel</title>
<author><name sortKey="Yaari, R" sort="Yaari, R" uniqKey="Yaari R" first="R." last="Yaari">R. Yaari</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="af1"><addr-line>Bio-statistical Unit, The Gertner Institute for Epidemiology and Health Policy Research</addr-line>
,<institution>Chaim Sheba Medical Center</institution>
,<addr-line>Tel-Hashomer 52621</addr-line>
,<country>Israel</country>
</nlm:aff>
<country xml:lang="fr">Israël</country>
<wicri:regionArea># see nlm:aff country strict</wicri:regionArea>
</affiliation>
<affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="af3"><addr-line>Zoology Department</addr-line>
,<institution>Tel-Aviv University</institution>
,<addr-line>Ramat Aviv 69778</addr-line>
,<country>Israel</country>
</nlm:aff>
<country xml:lang="fr">Israël</country>
<wicri:regionArea># see nlm:aff country strict</wicri:regionArea>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Katriel, G" sort="Katriel, G" uniqKey="Katriel G" first="G." last="Katriel">G. Katriel</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="af4"><addr-line>Department of Mathematics</addr-line>
,<institution>ORT Braude College</institution>
,<addr-line>Karmiel 21610</addr-line>
,<country>Israel</country>
</nlm:aff>
<country xml:lang="fr">Israël</country>
<wicri:regionArea># see nlm:aff country strict</wicri:regionArea>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Stone, L" sort="Stone, L" uniqKey="Stone L" first="L." last="Stone">L. Stone</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="af3"><addr-line>Zoology Department</addr-line>
,<institution>Tel-Aviv University</institution>
,<addr-line>Ramat Aviv 69778</addr-line>
,<country>Israel</country>
</nlm:aff>
<country xml:lang="fr">Israël</country>
<wicri:regionArea># see nlm:aff country strict</wicri:regionArea>
</affiliation>
<affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="af5"><addr-line>School of Mathematical and Geospatial Sciences</addr-line>
,<institution>RMIT University</institution>
,<addr-line>Melbourne, Victoria 3001</addr-line>
,<country>Australia</country>
</nlm:aff>
<country xml:lang="fr">Australie</country>
<wicri:regionArea># see nlm:aff country strict</wicri:regionArea>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Mendelson, E" sort="Mendelson, E" uniqKey="Mendelson E" first="E." last="Mendelson">E. Mendelson</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="af2"><addr-line>Central Virology Laboratory, Ministry of Health</addr-line>
,<institution>Chaim Sheba Medical Center</institution>
,<addr-line>Tel-Hashomer 52621</addr-line>
,<country>Israel</country>
</nlm:aff>
<country xml:lang="fr">Israël</country>
<wicri:regionArea># see nlm:aff country strict</wicri:regionArea>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Mandelboim, M" sort="Mandelboim, M" uniqKey="Mandelboim M" first="M." last="Mandelboim">M. Mandelboim</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="af2"><addr-line>Central Virology Laboratory, Ministry of Health</addr-line>
,<institution>Chaim Sheba Medical Center</institution>
,<addr-line>Tel-Hashomer 52621</addr-line>
,<country>Israel</country>
</nlm:aff>
<country xml:lang="fr">Israël</country>
<wicri:regionArea># see nlm:aff country strict</wicri:regionArea>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Huppert, A" sort="Huppert, A" uniqKey="Huppert A" first="A." last="Huppert">A. Huppert</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="af1"><addr-line>Bio-statistical Unit, The Gertner Institute for Epidemiology and Health Policy Research</addr-line>
,<institution>Chaim Sheba Medical Center</institution>
,<addr-line>Tel-Hashomer 52621</addr-line>
,<country>Israel</country>
</nlm:aff>
<country xml:lang="fr">Israël</country>
<wicri:regionArea># see nlm:aff country strict</wicri:regionArea>
</affiliation>
<affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="af6"><addr-line>Sackler Faculty of Medicine</addr-line>
,<institution>Tel-Aviv University</institution>
,<addr-line>Ramat Aviv 69778</addr-line>
,<country>Israel</country>
</nlm:aff>
<country xml:lang="fr">Israël</country>
<wicri:regionArea># see nlm:aff country strict</wicri:regionArea>
</affiliation>
</author>
</analytic>
<series><title level="j">Journal of the Royal Society Interface</title>
<idno type="ISSN">1742-5689</idno>
<idno type="eISSN">1742-5662</idno>
<imprint><date when="2016">2016</date>
</imprint>
</series>
</biblStruct>
</sourceDesc>
</fileDesc>
<profileDesc><textClass></textClass>
</profileDesc>
</teiHeader>
<front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en"><p>Intensified surveillance during the 2009 A/H1N1 influenza pandemic in Israel resulted in large virological and serological datasets, presenting a unique opportunity for investigating the pandemic dynamics. We employ a conditional likelihood approach for fitting a disease transmission model to virological and serological data, conditional on clinical data. The model is used to reconstruct the temporal pattern of the pandemic in Israel in five age-groups and evaluate the factors that shaped it. We estimate the reproductive number at the beginning of the pandemic to be <italic>R</italic>
= 1.4. We find that the combined effect of varying absolute humidity conditions and school vacations (SVs) is responsible for the infection pattern, characterized by three epidemic waves. Overall attack rate is estimated at 32% (28–35%) with a large variation among the age-groups: the highest attack rates within school children and the lowest within the elderly. This pattern of infection is explained by a combination of the age-group contact structure and increasing immunity with age. We assess that SVs increased the overall attack rates by prolonging the pandemic into the winter. Vaccinating school children would have been the optimal strategy for minimizing infection rates in all age-groups.</p>
</div>
</front>
</TEI>
</pmc>
<pubmed><TEI><teiHeader><fileDesc><titleStmt><title xml:lang="en">Model-based reconstruction of an epidemic using multiple datasets: understanding influenza A/H1N1 pandemic dynamics in Israel.</title>
<author><name sortKey="Yaari, R" sort="Yaari, R" uniqKey="Yaari R" first="R" last="Yaari">R. Yaari</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>Bio-statistical Unit, The Gertner Institute for Epidemiology and Health Policy Research, Chaim Sheba Medical Center, Tel-Hashomer 52621, Israel Zoology Department, Tel-Aviv University, Ramat Aviv 69778, Israel.</nlm:affiliation>
<country xml:lang="fr">Israël</country>
<wicri:regionArea>Bio-statistical Unit, The Gertner Institute for Epidemiology and Health Policy Research, Chaim Sheba Medical Center, Tel-Hashomer 52621, Israel Zoology Department, Tel-Aviv University, Ramat Aviv 69778</wicri:regionArea>
<wicri:noRegion>Ramat Aviv 69778</wicri:noRegion>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Katriel, G" sort="Katriel, G" uniqKey="Katriel G" first="G" last="Katriel">G. Katriel</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>Department of Mathematics, ORT Braude College, Karmiel 21610, Israel.</nlm:affiliation>
<country xml:lang="fr">Israël</country>
<wicri:regionArea>Department of Mathematics, ORT Braude College, Karmiel 21610</wicri:regionArea>
<wicri:noRegion>Karmiel 21610</wicri:noRegion>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Stone, L" sort="Stone, L" uniqKey="Stone L" first="L" last="Stone">L. Stone</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>Zoology Department, Tel-Aviv University, Ramat Aviv 69778, Israel School of Mathematical and Geospatial Sciences, RMIT University, Melbourne, Victoria 3001, Australia.</nlm:affiliation>
<country xml:lang="fr">Australie</country>
<wicri:regionArea>Zoology Department, Tel-Aviv University, Ramat Aviv 69778, Israel School of Mathematical and Geospatial Sciences, RMIT University, Melbourne, Victoria 3001</wicri:regionArea>
<wicri:noRegion>Victoria 3001</wicri:noRegion>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Mendelson, E" sort="Mendelson, E" uniqKey="Mendelson E" first="E" last="Mendelson">E. Mendelson</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>Central Virology Laboratory, Ministry of Health, Chaim Sheba Medical Center, Tel-Hashomer 52621, Israel.</nlm:affiliation>
<country xml:lang="fr">Israël</country>
<wicri:regionArea>Central Virology Laboratory, Ministry of Health, Chaim Sheba Medical Center, Tel-Hashomer 52621</wicri:regionArea>
<wicri:noRegion>Tel-Hashomer 52621</wicri:noRegion>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Mandelboim, M" sort="Mandelboim, M" uniqKey="Mandelboim M" first="M" last="Mandelboim">M. Mandelboim</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>Central Virology Laboratory, Ministry of Health, Chaim Sheba Medical Center, Tel-Hashomer 52621, Israel.</nlm:affiliation>
<country xml:lang="fr">Israël</country>
<wicri:regionArea>Central Virology Laboratory, Ministry of Health, Chaim Sheba Medical Center, Tel-Hashomer 52621</wicri:regionArea>
<wicri:noRegion>Tel-Hashomer 52621</wicri:noRegion>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Huppert, A" sort="Huppert, A" uniqKey="Huppert A" first="A" last="Huppert">A. Huppert</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>Bio-statistical Unit, The Gertner Institute for Epidemiology and Health Policy Research, Chaim Sheba Medical Center, Tel-Hashomer 52621, Israel Sackler Faculty of Medicine, Tel-Aviv University, Ramat Aviv 69778, Israel amith@gertner.health.gov.il.</nlm:affiliation>
<country wicri:rule="url">Israël</country>
<wicri:regionArea>Bio-statistical Unit, The Gertner Institute for Epidemiology and Health Policy Research, Chaim Sheba Medical Center, Tel-Hashomer 52621, Israel Sackler Faculty of Medicine, Tel-Aviv University, Ramat Aviv 69778</wicri:regionArea>
<wicri:noRegion>Ramat Aviv 69778</wicri:noRegion>
</affiliation>
</author>
</titleStmt>
<publicationStmt><idno type="wicri:source">PubMed</idno>
<date when="2016">2016</date>
<idno type="RBID">pubmed:27030041</idno>
<idno type="pmid">27030041</idno>
<idno type="doi">10.1098/rsif.2016.0099</idno>
<idno type="wicri:Area/PubMed/Corpus">000541</idno>
<idno type="wicri:explorRef" wicri:stream="PubMed" wicri:step="Corpus" wicri:corpus="PubMed">000541</idno>
<idno type="wicri:Area/PubMed/Curation">000541</idno>
<idno type="wicri:explorRef" wicri:stream="PubMed" wicri:step="Curation">000541</idno>
<idno type="wicri:Area/PubMed/Checkpoint">000485</idno>
<idno type="wicri:explorRef" wicri:stream="Checkpoint" wicri:step="PubMed">000485</idno>
</publicationStmt>
<sourceDesc><biblStruct><analytic><title xml:lang="en">Model-based reconstruction of an epidemic using multiple datasets: understanding influenza A/H1N1 pandemic dynamics in Israel.</title>
<author><name sortKey="Yaari, R" sort="Yaari, R" uniqKey="Yaari R" first="R" last="Yaari">R. Yaari</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>Bio-statistical Unit, The Gertner Institute for Epidemiology and Health Policy Research, Chaim Sheba Medical Center, Tel-Hashomer 52621, Israel Zoology Department, Tel-Aviv University, Ramat Aviv 69778, Israel.</nlm:affiliation>
<country xml:lang="fr">Israël</country>
<wicri:regionArea>Bio-statistical Unit, The Gertner Institute for Epidemiology and Health Policy Research, Chaim Sheba Medical Center, Tel-Hashomer 52621, Israel Zoology Department, Tel-Aviv University, Ramat Aviv 69778</wicri:regionArea>
<wicri:noRegion>Ramat Aviv 69778</wicri:noRegion>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Katriel, G" sort="Katriel, G" uniqKey="Katriel G" first="G" last="Katriel">G. Katriel</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>Department of Mathematics, ORT Braude College, Karmiel 21610, Israel.</nlm:affiliation>
<country xml:lang="fr">Israël</country>
<wicri:regionArea>Department of Mathematics, ORT Braude College, Karmiel 21610</wicri:regionArea>
<wicri:noRegion>Karmiel 21610</wicri:noRegion>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Stone, L" sort="Stone, L" uniqKey="Stone L" first="L" last="Stone">L. Stone</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>Zoology Department, Tel-Aviv University, Ramat Aviv 69778, Israel School of Mathematical and Geospatial Sciences, RMIT University, Melbourne, Victoria 3001, Australia.</nlm:affiliation>
<country xml:lang="fr">Australie</country>
<wicri:regionArea>Zoology Department, Tel-Aviv University, Ramat Aviv 69778, Israel School of Mathematical and Geospatial Sciences, RMIT University, Melbourne, Victoria 3001</wicri:regionArea>
<wicri:noRegion>Victoria 3001</wicri:noRegion>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Mendelson, E" sort="Mendelson, E" uniqKey="Mendelson E" first="E" last="Mendelson">E. Mendelson</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>Central Virology Laboratory, Ministry of Health, Chaim Sheba Medical Center, Tel-Hashomer 52621, Israel.</nlm:affiliation>
<country xml:lang="fr">Israël</country>
<wicri:regionArea>Central Virology Laboratory, Ministry of Health, Chaim Sheba Medical Center, Tel-Hashomer 52621</wicri:regionArea>
<wicri:noRegion>Tel-Hashomer 52621</wicri:noRegion>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Mandelboim, M" sort="Mandelboim, M" uniqKey="Mandelboim M" first="M" last="Mandelboim">M. Mandelboim</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>Central Virology Laboratory, Ministry of Health, Chaim Sheba Medical Center, Tel-Hashomer 52621, Israel.</nlm:affiliation>
<country xml:lang="fr">Israël</country>
<wicri:regionArea>Central Virology Laboratory, Ministry of Health, Chaim Sheba Medical Center, Tel-Hashomer 52621</wicri:regionArea>
<wicri:noRegion>Tel-Hashomer 52621</wicri:noRegion>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Huppert, A" sort="Huppert, A" uniqKey="Huppert A" first="A" last="Huppert">A. Huppert</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>Bio-statistical Unit, The Gertner Institute for Epidemiology and Health Policy Research, Chaim Sheba Medical Center, Tel-Hashomer 52621, Israel Sackler Faculty of Medicine, Tel-Aviv University, Ramat Aviv 69778, Israel amith@gertner.health.gov.il.</nlm:affiliation>
<country wicri:rule="url">Israël</country>
<wicri:regionArea>Bio-statistical Unit, The Gertner Institute for Epidemiology and Health Policy Research, Chaim Sheba Medical Center, Tel-Hashomer 52621, Israel Sackler Faculty of Medicine, Tel-Aviv University, Ramat Aviv 69778</wicri:regionArea>
<wicri:noRegion>Ramat Aviv 69778</wicri:noRegion>
</affiliation>
</author>
</analytic>
<series><title level="j">Journal of the Royal Society, Interface</title>
<idno type="eISSN">1742-5662</idno>
<imprint><date when="2016" type="published">2016</date>
</imprint>
</series>
</biblStruct>
</sourceDesc>
</fileDesc>
<profileDesc><textClass><keywords scheme="KwdEn" xml:lang="en"><term>Adolescent</term>
<term>Adult</term>
<term>Aged</term>
<term>Aged, 80 and over</term>
<term>Child</term>
<term>Child, Preschool</term>
<term>Databases, Factual</term>
<term>Female</term>
<term>Humans</term>
<term>Infant</term>
<term>Infant, Newborn</term>
<term>Influenza A Virus, H1N1 Subtype</term>
<term>Influenza, Human (epidemiology)</term>
<term>Influenza, Human (prevention & control)</term>
<term>Male</term>
<term>Middle Aged</term>
<term>Models, Biological</term>
<term>Pandemics</term>
<term>Vaccination</term>
</keywords>
<keywords scheme="KwdFr" xml:lang="fr"><term>Adolescent</term>
<term>Adulte</term>
<term>Adulte d'âge moyen</term>
<term>Bases de données factuelles</term>
<term>Enfant</term>
<term>Enfant d'âge préscolaire</term>
<term>Femelle</term>
<term>Grippe humaine ()</term>
<term>Grippe humaine (épidémiologie)</term>
<term>Humains</term>
<term>Modèles biologiques</term>
<term>Mâle</term>
<term>Nourrisson</term>
<term>Nouveau-né</term>
<term>Pandémies</term>
<term>Sous-type H1N1 du virus de la grippe A</term>
<term>Sujet âgé</term>
<term>Sujet âgé de 80 ans ou plus</term>
<term>Vaccination</term>
</keywords>
<keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="epidemiology" xml:lang="en"><term>Influenza, Human</term>
</keywords>
<keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="prevention & control" xml:lang="en"><term>Influenza, Human</term>
</keywords>
<keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="épidémiologie" xml:lang="fr"><term>Grippe humaine</term>
</keywords>
<keywords scheme="MESH" xml:lang="en"><term>Adolescent</term>
<term>Adult</term>
<term>Aged</term>
<term>Aged, 80 and over</term>
<term>Child</term>
<term>Child, Preschool</term>
<term>Databases, Factual</term>
<term>Female</term>
<term>Humans</term>
<term>Infant</term>
<term>Infant, Newborn</term>
<term>Influenza A Virus, H1N1 Subtype</term>
<term>Male</term>
<term>Middle Aged</term>
<term>Models, Biological</term>
<term>Pandemics</term>
<term>Vaccination</term>
</keywords>
<keywords scheme="MESH" xml:lang="fr"><term>Adolescent</term>
<term>Adulte</term>
<term>Adulte d'âge moyen</term>
<term>Bases de données factuelles</term>
<term>Enfant</term>
<term>Enfant d'âge préscolaire</term>
<term>Femelle</term>
<term>Grippe humaine</term>
<term>Humains</term>
<term>Modèles biologiques</term>
<term>Mâle</term>
<term>Nourrisson</term>
<term>Nouveau-né</term>
<term>Pandémies</term>
<term>Sous-type H1N1 du virus de la grippe A</term>
<term>Sujet âgé</term>
<term>Sujet âgé de 80 ans ou plus</term>
<term>Vaccination</term>
</keywords>
</textClass>
</profileDesc>
</teiHeader>
<front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en">Intensified surveillance during the 2009 A/H1N1 influenza pandemic in Israel resulted in large virological and serological datasets, presenting a unique opportunity for investigating the pandemic dynamics. We employ a conditional likelihood approach for fitting a disease transmission model to virological and serological data, conditional on clinical data. The model is used to reconstruct the temporal pattern of the pandemic in Israel in five age-groups and evaluate the factors that shaped it. We estimate the reproductive number at the beginning of the pandemic to beR= 1.4. We find that the combined effect of varying absolute humidity conditions and school vacations (SVs) is responsible for the infection pattern, characterized by three epidemic waves. Overall attack rate is estimated at 32% (28-35%) with a large variation among the age-groups: the highest attack rates within school children and the lowest within the elderly. This pattern of infection is explained by a combination of the age-group contact structure and increasing immunity with age. We assess that SVs increased the overall attack rates by prolonging the pandemic into the winter. Vaccinating school children would have been the optimal strategy for minimizing infection rates in all age-groups. </div>
</front>
</TEI>
</pubmed>
</double>
</record>
Pour manipuler ce document sous Unix (Dilib)
EXPLOR_STEP=$WICRI_ROOT/Sante/explor/PandemieGrippaleV1/Data/Ncbi/Merge
HfdSelect -h $EXPLOR_STEP/biblio.hfd -nk 001B50 | SxmlIndent | more
Ou
HfdSelect -h $EXPLOR_AREA/Data/Ncbi/Merge/biblio.hfd -nk 001B50 | SxmlIndent | more
Pour mettre un lien sur cette page dans le réseau Wicri
{{Explor lien |wiki= Sante |area= PandemieGrippaleV1 |flux= Ncbi |étape= Merge |type= RBID |clé= PMC:4843683 |texte= Model-based reconstruction of an epidemic using multiple datasets: understanding influenza A/H1N1 pandemic dynamics in Israel }}
Pour générer des pages wiki
HfdIndexSelect -h $EXPLOR_AREA/Data/Ncbi/Merge/RBID.i -Sk "pubmed:27030041" \ | HfdSelect -Kh $EXPLOR_AREA/Data/Ncbi/Merge/biblio.hfd \ | NlmPubMed2Wicri -a PandemieGrippaleV1
![]() | This area was generated with Dilib version V0.6.34. | ![]() |