A conceptual model for the outbreak of Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Wuhan, China with individual reaction and governmental action
Identifieur interne : 000212 ( Main/Exploration ); précédent : 000211; suivant : 000213A conceptual model for the outbreak of Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Wuhan, China with individual reaction and governmental action
Auteurs : Qianying Lin [États-Unis] ; Shi Zhao [République populaire de Chine] ; Daozhou Gao [République populaire de Chine] ; Yijun Lou [République populaire de Chine] ; Shu Yang [République populaire de Chine] ; Salihu S. Musa [République populaire de Chine] ; Maggie H. Wang [République populaire de Chine] ; Yongli Cai [République populaire de Chine] ; Weiming Wang [République populaire de Chine] ; Lin Yang [République populaire de Chine] ; Daihai He [République populaire de Chine]Source :
- International Journal of Infectious Diseases [ 1201-9712 ] ; 2020.
Descripteurs français
- KwdFr :
- Chine (épidémiologie), Flambées de maladies, Gouvernement, Humains, Infections à coronavirus (épidémiologie), Modèles biologiques, Pandémie de grippe de 1918-1919 (), Pandémies, Pneumopathie virale (épidémiologie), Quarantaine, Royaume-Uni (épidémiologie), Réglementation gouvernementale, Santé publique (législation et jurisprudence), Voyage (législation et jurisprudence).
- MESH :
- législation et jurisprudence : Santé publique, Voyage.
- épidémiologie : Chine, Infections à coronavirus, Pneumopathie virale, Royaume-Uni.
- Flambées de maladies, Gouvernement, Humains, Modèles biologiques, Pandémie de grippe de 1918-1919, Pandémies, Quarantaine, Réglementation gouvernementale.
- Wicri :
- geographic : République populaire de Chine, Royaume-Uni.
English descriptors
- KwdEn :
- Betacoronavirus, China (epidemiology), Coronavirus Infections (epidemiology), Disease Outbreaks, Government, Government Regulation, Humans, Influenza Pandemic, 1918-1919 (statistics & numerical data), Models, Biological, Pandemics, Pneumonia, Viral (epidemiology), Public Health (legislation & jurisprudence), Quarantine, Travel (legislation & jurisprudence), United Kingdom (epidemiology).
- MESH :
- geographic , epidemiology : China, United Kingdom.
- epidemiology : Coronavirus Infections, Pneumonia, Viral.
- legislation & jurisprudence : Public Health, Travel.
- statistics & numerical data : Influenza Pandemic, 1918-1919.
- Betacoronavirus, Disease Outbreaks, Government, Government Regulation, Humans, Models, Biological, Pandemics, Quarantine.
Abstract
For the ongoing novel coronavirus disease (CODID-19) outbreak in Wuhan, China, the Chinese government has implemented control measures such as city lockdown to mitigate the impact of the epidemic. We model the outbreak in Wuhan with individual reaction and governmental action (holiday extension, city lockdown, hospitalisation and quarantine) based on some parameters of the 1918 influenza pandemic in London, United Kingdom. We show the different effects of individual reaction and governmental action and preliminarily estimate the magnitude of these effects. We also preliminarily estimate the time-varying reporting ratio.
Url:
DOI: 10.1016/j.ijid.2020.02.058
PubMed: 32145465
PubMed Central: 7102659
Affiliations:
- République populaire de Chine, États-Unis
- Guangdong, Michigan
- Sha Tin, Shenzhen
- Université chinoise de Hong Kong
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Le document en format XML
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Wang</name><affiliation wicri:level="4"><nlm:aff id="aff0010">JC School of Public Health and Primary Care, Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country><wicri:regionArea>JC School of Public Health and Primary Care, Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong</wicri:regionArea><orgName type="university">Université chinoise de Hong Kong</orgName><placeName><settlement type="city">Sha Tin</settlement></placeName></affiliation><affiliation wicri:level="3"><nlm:aff id="aff0015">Shenzhen Research Institute of Chinese University of Hong Kong, Shenzhen, China</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country><wicri:regionArea>Shenzhen Research Institute of Chinese University of Hong Kong, Shenzhen</wicri:regionArea><placeName><settlement type="city">Shenzhen</settlement><region type="province">Guangdong</region></placeName></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Cai, Yongli" sort="Cai, Yongli" uniqKey="Cai Y" first="Yongli" last="Cai">Yongli Cai</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff0035">School of Mathematics and Statistics, Huaiyin Normal University, Huai’an, China</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country><wicri:regionArea>School of Mathematics and Statistics, Huaiyin Normal University, Huai’an</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Huai’an</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Wang, Weiming" sort="Wang, Weiming" uniqKey="Wang W" first="Weiming" last="Wang">Weiming Wang</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff0035">School of Mathematics and Statistics, Huaiyin Normal University, Huai’an, China</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country><wicri:regionArea>School of Mathematics and Statistics, Huaiyin Normal University, Huai’an</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Huai’an</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Yang, Lin" sort="Yang, Lin" uniqKey="Yang L" 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Science, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan, USA</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country><wicri:regionArea>Michigan Institute for Data Science, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan</wicri:regionArea><placeName><region type="state">Michigan</region></placeName></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Zhao, Shi" sort="Zhao, Shi" uniqKey="Zhao S" first="Shi" last="Zhao">Shi Zhao</name><affiliation wicri:level="4"><nlm:aff id="aff0010">JC School of Public Health and Primary Care, Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country><wicri:regionArea>JC School of Public Health and Primary Care, Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong</wicri:regionArea><orgName type="university">Université chinoise de Hong Kong</orgName><placeName><settlement type="city">Sha Tin</settlement></placeName></affiliation><affiliation wicri:level="3"><nlm:aff id="aff0015">Shenzhen Research Institute of Chinese University of Hong Kong, Shenzhen, China</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country><wicri:regionArea>Shenzhen Research Institute of Chinese University of Hong Kong, Shenzhen</wicri:regionArea><placeName><settlement type="city">Shenzhen</settlement><region type="province">Guangdong</region></placeName></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Gao, Daozhou" sort="Gao, Daozhou" uniqKey="Gao D" first="Daozhou" last="Gao">Daozhou Gao</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff0020">Mathematics and Science College, Shanghai Normal University, Shanghai, China</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country><wicri:regionArea>Mathematics and Science College, Shanghai Normal University, Shanghai</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Shanghai</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Lou, Yijun" sort="Lou, Yijun" uniqKey="Lou Y" first="Yijun" last="Lou">Yijun Lou</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff0025">Department of Applied Mathematics, Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong, China</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country><wicri:regionArea>Department of Applied Mathematics, Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Hong Kong</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Yang, Shu" sort="Yang, Shu" uniqKey="Yang S" first="Shu" last="Yang">Shu Yang</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff0030">College of Medical Information Engineering, Chengdu University of Traditional Chinese Medicine, Chengdu, China</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country><wicri:regionArea>College of Medical Information Engineering, Chengdu University of Traditional Chinese Medicine, Chengdu</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Chengdu</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Musa, Salihu S" sort="Musa, Salihu S" uniqKey="Musa S" first="Salihu S" last="Musa">Salihu S. Musa</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff0025">Department of Applied Mathematics, Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong, China</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country><wicri:regionArea>Department of Applied Mathematics, Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Hong Kong</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Wang, Maggie H" sort="Wang, Maggie H" uniqKey="Wang M" first="Maggie H" last="Wang">Maggie H. Wang</name><affiliation wicri:level="4"><nlm:aff id="aff0010">JC School of Public Health and Primary Care, Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country><wicri:regionArea>JC School of Public Health and Primary Care, Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong</wicri:regionArea><orgName type="university">Université chinoise de Hong Kong</orgName><placeName><settlement type="city">Sha Tin</settlement></placeName></affiliation><affiliation wicri:level="3"><nlm:aff id="aff0015">Shenzhen Research Institute of Chinese University of Hong Kong, Shenzhen, China</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country><wicri:regionArea>Shenzhen Research Institute of Chinese University of Hong Kong, Shenzhen</wicri:regionArea><placeName><settlement type="city">Shenzhen</settlement><region type="province">Guangdong</region></placeName></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Cai, Yongli" sort="Cai, Yongli" uniqKey="Cai Y" first="Yongli" last="Cai">Yongli Cai</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff0035">School of Mathematics and Statistics, Huaiyin Normal University, Huai’an, China</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country><wicri:regionArea>School of Mathematics and Statistics, Huaiyin Normal University, Huai’an</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Huai’an</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Wang, Weiming" sort="Wang, Weiming" uniqKey="Wang W" first="Weiming" last="Wang">Weiming Wang</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff0035">School of Mathematics and Statistics, Huaiyin Normal University, Huai’an, China</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country><wicri:regionArea>School of Mathematics and Statistics, Huaiyin Normal University, Huai’an</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Huai’an</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Yang, Lin" sort="Yang, Lin" uniqKey="Yang L" first="Lin" last="Yang">Lin Yang</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff0040">School of Nursing, Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong, China</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country><wicri:regionArea>School of Nursing, Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Hong Kong</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="He, Daihai" sort="He, Daihai" uniqKey="He D" first="Daihai" last="He">Daihai He</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff0025">Department of Applied Mathematics, Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong, China</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country><wicri:regionArea>Department of Applied Mathematics, Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Hong Kong</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author></analytic><series><title level="j">International Journal of Infectious Diseases</title><idno type="ISSN">1201-9712</idno><idno type="eISSN">1878-3511</idno><imprint><date when="2020">2020</date></imprint></series></biblStruct></sourceDesc></fileDesc><profileDesc><textClass><keywords scheme="KwdEn" xml:lang="en"><term>Betacoronavirus</term><term>China (epidemiology)</term><term>Coronavirus Infections (epidemiology)</term><term>Disease Outbreaks</term><term>Government</term><term>Government Regulation</term><term>Humans</term><term>Influenza Pandemic, 1918-1919 (statistics & numerical data)</term><term>Models, Biological</term><term>Pandemics</term><term>Pneumonia, Viral (epidemiology)</term><term>Public Health (legislation & jurisprudence)</term><term>Quarantine</term><term>Travel (legislation & jurisprudence)</term><term>United Kingdom (epidemiology)</term></keywords><keywords scheme="KwdFr" xml:lang="fr"><term>Chine (épidémiologie)</term><term>Flambées de maladies</term><term>Gouvernement</term><term>Humains</term><term>Infections à coronavirus (épidémiologie)</term><term>Modèles biologiques</term><term>Pandémie de grippe de 1918-1919 ()</term><term>Pandémies</term><term>Pneumopathie virale (épidémiologie)</term><term>Quarantaine</term><term>Royaume-Uni (épidémiologie)</term><term>Réglementation gouvernementale</term><term>Santé publique (législation et jurisprudence)</term><term>Voyage (législation et jurisprudence)</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" type="geographic" qualifier="epidemiology" xml:lang="en"><term>China</term><term>United Kingdom</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="epidemiology" xml:lang="en"><term>Coronavirus Infections</term><term>Pneumonia, Viral</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="legislation & jurisprudence" xml:lang="en"><term>Public Health</term><term>Travel</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="législation et jurisprudence" xml:lang="fr"><term>Santé publique</term><term>Voyage</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="statistics & numerical 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type="abstract" xml:lang="en"><title>Highlights</title><p><list list-type="simple" id="list0005"><list-item id="listitem0005"><label>•</label><p id="p0005">For the ongoing novel coronavirus disease (CODID-19) outbreak in Wuhan, China, the Chinese government has implemented control measures such as city lockdown to mitigate the impact of the epidemic.</p></list-item><list-item id="listitem0010"><label>•</label><p id="p0010">We model the outbreak in Wuhan with individual reaction and governmental action (holiday extension, city lockdown, hospitalisation and quarantine) based on some parameters of the 1918 influenza pandemic in London, United Kingdom.</p></list-item><list-item id="listitem0015"><label>•</label><p id="p0015">We show the different effects of individual reaction and governmental action and preliminarily estimate the magnitude of these effects.</p></list-item><list-item id="listitem0020"><label>•</label><p id="p0020">We also preliminarily estimate the time-varying reporting ratio.</p></list-item></list></p></div></front><back><div1 type="bibliography"><listBibl><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="National Health Commission Of The People S Republic Of China" uniqKey="National Health Commission Of The People S Republic Of China">National Health Commission of the People's Republic of China</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Wu, P" uniqKey="Wu P">P. 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Kobayashi</name></author><author><name sortKey="Yang, Y" uniqKey="Yang Y">Y. Yang</name></author><author><name sortKey="Hayashi, K" uniqKey="Hayashi K">K. Hayashi</name></author><author><name sortKey="Miyama, T" uniqKey="Miyama T">T. Miyama</name></author><author><name sortKey="Kinoshita, R" uniqKey="Kinoshita R">R. Kinoshita</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="The Novel Coronavirus Pneumonia Emergency Response Epidemiology Team" uniqKey="The Novel Coronavirus Pneumonia Emergency Response Epidemiology Team">The Novel Coronavirus Pneumonia Emergency Response Epidemiology Team</name></author></analytic></biblStruct></listBibl></div1></back></TEI><affiliations><list><country><li>République populaire de Chine</li><li>États-Unis</li></country><region><li>Guangdong</li><li>Michigan</li></region><settlement><li>Sha Tin</li><li>Shenzhen</li></settlement><orgName><li>Université chinoise de Hong Kong</li></orgName></list><tree><country name="États-Unis"><region name="Michigan"><name sortKey="Lin, Qianying" sort="Lin, Qianying" uniqKey="Lin Q" first="Qianying" last="Lin">Qianying Lin</name></region></country><country name="République populaire de Chine"><noRegion><name sortKey="Zhao, Shi" sort="Zhao, Shi" uniqKey="Zhao S" first="Shi" last="Zhao">Shi Zhao</name></noRegion><name sortKey="Cai, Yongli" sort="Cai, Yongli" uniqKey="Cai Y" first="Yongli" last="Cai">Yongli Cai</name><name sortKey="Gao, Daozhou" sort="Gao, Daozhou" uniqKey="Gao D" first="Daozhou" last="Gao">Daozhou Gao</name><name sortKey="He, Daihai" sort="He, Daihai" uniqKey="He D" first="Daihai" last="He">Daihai He</name><name sortKey="Lou, Yijun" sort="Lou, Yijun" uniqKey="Lou Y" first="Yijun" last="Lou">Yijun Lou</name><name sortKey="Musa, Salihu S" sort="Musa, Salihu S" uniqKey="Musa S" first="Salihu S" last="Musa">Salihu S. Musa</name><name sortKey="Wang, Maggie H" sort="Wang, Maggie H" uniqKey="Wang M" first="Maggie H" last="Wang">Maggie H. Wang</name><name sortKey="Wang, Maggie H" sort="Wang, Maggie H" uniqKey="Wang M" first="Maggie H" last="Wang">Maggie H. Wang</name><name sortKey="Wang, Weiming" sort="Wang, Weiming" uniqKey="Wang W" first="Weiming" last="Wang">Weiming Wang</name><name sortKey="Yang, Lin" sort="Yang, Lin" uniqKey="Yang L" first="Lin" last="Yang">Lin Yang</name><name sortKey="Yang, Shu" sort="Yang, Shu" uniqKey="Yang S" first="Shu" last="Yang">Shu Yang</name><name sortKey="Zhao, Shi" sort="Zhao, Shi" uniqKey="Zhao S" first="Shi" last="Zhao">Shi Zhao</name></country></tree></affiliations></record>Pour manipuler ce document sous Unix (Dilib)
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