A conceptual model for the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak in Wuhan, China with individual reaction and governmental action.
Identifieur interne : 000042 ( PubMed/Corpus ); précédent : 000041; suivant : 000043A conceptual model for the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak in Wuhan, China with individual reaction and governmental action.
Auteurs : Qianying Lin ; Shi Zhao ; Daozhou Gao ; Yijun Lou ; Shu Yang ; Salihu S. Musa ; Maggie H. Wang ; Yongli Cai ; Weiming Wang ; Lin Yang ; Daihai HeSource :
- International journal of infectious diseases : IJID : official publication of the International Society for Infectious Diseases [ 1878-3511 ] ; 2020.
English descriptors
- KwdEn :
- Betacoronavirus, China (epidemiology), Coronavirus Infections (epidemiology), Disease Outbreaks, Government, Government Regulation, Humans, Influenza Pandemic, 1918-1919 (statistics & numerical data), Models, Biological, Pandemics, Pneumonia, Viral (epidemiology), Public Health (legislation & jurisprudence), Quarantine, Travel (legislation & jurisprudence), United Kingdom (epidemiology).
- MESH :
- geographic , epidemiology : China, United Kingdom.
- epidemiology : Coronavirus Infections, Pneumonia, Viral.
- legislation & jurisprudence : Public Health, Travel.
- statistics & numerical data : Influenza Pandemic, 1918-1919.
- Betacoronavirus, Disease Outbreaks, Government, Government Regulation, Humans, Models, Biological, Pandemics, Quarantine.
Abstract
The ongoing coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak, emerged in Wuhan, China in the end of 2019, has claimed more than 2600 lives as of 24 February 2020 and posed a huge threat to global public health. The Chinese government has implemented control measures including setting up special hospitals and travel restriction to mitigate the spread. We propose conceptual models for the COVID-19 outbreak in Wuhan with the consideration of individual behavioural reaction and governmental actions, e.g., holiday extension, travel restriction, hospitalisation and quarantine. We employe the estimates of these two key components from the 1918 influenza pandemic in London, United Kingdom, incorporated zoonotic introductions and the emigration, and then compute future trends and the reporting ratio. The model is concise in structure, and it successfully captures the course of the COVID-19 outbreak, and thus sheds light on understanding the trends of the outbreak.
DOI: 10.1016/j.ijid.2020.02.058
PubMed: 32145465
Links to Exploration step
pubmed:32145465Le document en format XML
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<front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en">The ongoing coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak, emerged in Wuhan, China in the end of 2019, has claimed more than 2600 lives as of 24 February 2020 and posed a huge threat to global public health. The Chinese government has implemented control measures including setting up special hospitals and travel restriction to mitigate the spread. We propose conceptual models for the COVID-19 outbreak in Wuhan with the consideration of individual behavioural reaction and governmental actions, e.g., holiday extension, travel restriction, hospitalisation and quarantine. We employe the estimates of these two key components from the 1918 influenza pandemic in London, United Kingdom, incorporated zoonotic introductions and the emigration, and then compute future trends and the reporting ratio. The model is concise in structure, and it successfully captures the course of the COVID-19 outbreak, and thus sheds light on understanding the trends of the outbreak.</div>
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