Abrupt transition to heightened poliomyelitis epidemicity in England and Wales, 1947–1957, associated with a pronounced increase in the geographical rate of disease propagation
Identifieur interne : 000341 ( Main/Merge ); précédent : 000340; suivant : 000342Abrupt transition to heightened poliomyelitis epidemicity in England and Wales, 1947–1957, associated with a pronounced increase in the geographical rate of disease propagation
Auteurs : M. R. Smallman-Raynor [Royaume-Uni] ; A. D. Cliff [Royaume-Uni]Source :
- Epidemiology and Infection [ 0950-2688 ] ; 2013.
Abstract
The abrupt transition to heightened poliomyelitis epidemicity in England and Wales, 1947–1957, was associated with a profound change in the spatial dynamics of the disease. Drawing on the complete record of poliomyelitis notifications in England and Wales, we use a robust method of spatial epidemiological analysis (swash-backwash model) to evaluate the geographical rate of disease propagation in successive poliomyelitis seasons, 1940–1964. Comparisons with earlier and later time periods show that the period of heightened poliomyelitis epidemicity corresponded with a sudden and pronounced increase in the spatial rate of disease propagation. This change was observed for both urban and rural areas and points to an abrupt enhancement in the propensity for the geographical spread of polioviruses. Competing theories of the epidemic emergence of poliomyelitis in England and Wales should be assessed in the light of this evidence.
Url:
DOI: 10.1017/S0950268813001441
PubMed: 23809856
PubMed Central: 3915756
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Cliff</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff2"><addr-line>Department of Geography</addr-line>,<institution>University of Cambridge</institution>,<addr-line>Cambridge</addr-line>,<country>UK</country></nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">Royaume-Uni</country><wicri:regionArea># see nlm:aff country strict</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author></titleStmt><publicationStmt><idno type="wicri:source">PMC</idno><idno type="pmid">23809856</idno><idno type="pmc">3915756</idno><idno type="url">http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3915756</idno><idno type="RBID">PMC:3915756</idno><idno type="doi">10.1017/S0950268813001441</idno><date when="2013">2013</date><idno type="wicri:Area/Pmc/Corpus">000333</idno><idno type="wicri:explorRef" wicri:stream="Pmc" wicri:step="Corpus" wicri:corpus="PMC">000333</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/Pmc/Curation">000333</idno><idno type="wicri:explorRef" wicri:stream="Pmc" wicri:step="Curation">000333</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/Pmc/Checkpoint">000138</idno><idno type="wicri:explorRef" wicri:stream="Pmc" wicri:step="Checkpoint">000138</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/Ncbi/Merge">000C73</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/Ncbi/Curation">000C73</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/Ncbi/Checkpoint">000C73</idno><idno type="wicri:doubleKey">0950-2688:2013:Smallman Raynor M:abrupt:transition:to</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/Main/Merge">000341</idno></publicationStmt><sourceDesc><biblStruct><analytic><title xml:lang="en" level="a" type="main">Abrupt transition to heightened poliomyelitis epidemicity in England and Wales, 1947–1957, associated with a pronounced increase in the geographical rate of disease propagation</title><author><name sortKey="Smallman Raynor, M R" sort="Smallman Raynor, M R" uniqKey="Smallman Raynor M" first="M. R." last="Smallman-Raynor">M. R. Smallman-Raynor</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff1"><addr-line>School of Geography</addr-line>,<institution>University of Nottingham</institution>,<addr-line>Nottingham</addr-line>,<country>UK</country></nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">Royaume-Uni</country><wicri:regionArea># see nlm:aff country strict</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Cliff, A D" sort="Cliff, A D" uniqKey="Cliff A" first="A. D." last="Cliff">A. D. Cliff</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff2"><addr-line>Department of Geography</addr-line>,<institution>University of Cambridge</institution>,<addr-line>Cambridge</addr-line>,<country>UK</country></nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">Royaume-Uni</country><wicri:regionArea># see nlm:aff country strict</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author></analytic><series><title level="j">Epidemiology and Infection</title><idno type="ISSN">0950-2688</idno><idno type="eISSN">1469-4409</idno><imprint><date when="2013">2013</date></imprint></series></biblStruct></sourceDesc></fileDesc><profileDesc><textClass></textClass></profileDesc></teiHeader><front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en"><title>SUMMARY</title><p>The abrupt transition to heightened poliomyelitis epidemicity in England and Wales, 1947–1957, was associated with a profound change in the spatial dynamics of the disease. Drawing on the complete record of poliomyelitis notifications in England and Wales, we use a robust method of spatial epidemiological analysis (swash-backwash model) to evaluate the geographical rate of disease propagation in successive poliomyelitis seasons, 1940–1964. Comparisons with earlier and later time periods show that the period of heightened poliomyelitis epidemicity corresponded with a sudden and pronounced increase in the spatial rate of disease propagation. This change was observed for both urban and rural areas and points to an abrupt enhancement in the propensity for the geographical spread of polioviruses. Competing theories of the epidemic emergence of poliomyelitis in England and Wales should be assessed in the light of this evidence.</p></div></front><back><div1 type="bibliography"><listBibl><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Paul, Jr" uniqKey="Paul J">JR Paul</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Smallman Raynor, M" uniqKey="Smallman Raynor M">M Smallman-Raynor</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Hamburger, O" uniqKey="Hamburger O">O Hamburger</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Henschen, F" uniqKey="Henschen F">F Henschen</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Dequeker, J" uniqKey="Dequeker J">J Dequeker</name></author><author><name sortKey="Fabry, G" uniqKey="Fabry G">G Fabry</name></author><author><name sortKey="Vanopdenbosch, L" uniqKey="Vanopdenbosch L">L 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B">B Benjamin</name></author><author><name sortKey="Gale, Ah" uniqKey="Gale A">AH Gale</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Agerholm, M" uniqKey="Agerholm M">M Agerholm</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Murray, Lh" uniqKey="Murray L">LH Murray</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Gale, Ah" uniqKey="Gale A">AH Gale</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Cliff, Ad" uniqKey="Cliff A">AD Cliff</name></author><author><name sortKey="Smallman Raynor, Mr" uniqKey="Smallman Raynor M">MR Smallman-Raynor</name></author></analytic></biblStruct></listBibl></div1></back></TEI></record>Pour manipuler ce document sous Unix (Dilib)
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