A dynamic compartmental model for the Middle East respiratory syndrome outbreak in the Republic of Korea: A retrospective analysis on control interventions and superspreading events
Identifieur interne : 000E86 ( Pmc/Curation ); précédent : 000E85; suivant : 000E87A dynamic compartmental model for the Middle East respiratory syndrome outbreak in the Republic of Korea: A retrospective analysis on control interventions and superspreading events
Auteurs : Jonggul Lee [Corée du Sud] ; Gerardo Chowell [États-Unis] ; Eunok Jung [Corée du Sud]Source :
- Journal of Theoretical Biology [ 0022-5193 ] ; 2016.
Abstract
The 2015 Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS) outbreak in the Republic of Korea has provided an opportunity to improve our understanding of the spread of MERS linked to healthcare settings. Here we designed a dynamic transmission model to analyze the MERS outbreak in the Republic of Korea based on confirmed cases reported during the period May 20–July 4, 2015. Our model explicitly incorporates superspreading events and time-dependent transmission and isolation rates. Our model was able to provide a good fit to the trajectory of the outbreak and was useful to analyze the role of hypothetical control scenarios. Specifically, we assessed the impact of the timing of control measures, especially associated with a reduction of the transmission rate and diagnostic delays on outbreak size and duration. Early interventions within 1 week after the epidemic onset, for instance, including the initial government announcement to the public about the list of hospitals exposed to MERS coronavirus (MERS-CoV), show a promising means to reduce the size (
Url:
DOI: 10.1016/j.jtbi.2016.08.009
PubMed: 27521523
PubMed Central: 7094115
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<series><title level="j">Journal of Theoretical Biology</title>
<idno type="ISSN">0022-5193</idno>
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<front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en"><p>The 2015 Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS) outbreak in the Republic of Korea has provided an opportunity to improve our understanding of the spread of MERS linked to healthcare settings. Here we designed a dynamic transmission model to analyze the MERS outbreak in the Republic of Korea based on confirmed cases reported during the period May 20–July 4, 2015. Our model explicitly incorporates superspreading events and time-dependent transmission and isolation rates. Our model was able to provide a good fit to the trajectory of the outbreak and was useful to analyze the role of hypothetical control scenarios. Specifically, we assessed the impact of the timing of control measures, especially associated with a reduction of the transmission rate and diagnostic delays on outbreak size and duration. Early interventions within 1 week after the epidemic onset, for instance, including the initial government announcement to the public about the list of hospitals exposed to MERS coronavirus (MERS-CoV), show a promising means to reduce the size (<inline-formula><mml:math id="M1" altimg="si0016.gif" overflow="scroll"><mml:mrow><mml:mo>></mml:mo>
<mml:mn>71</mml:mn>
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) and duration (<inline-formula><mml:math id="M2" altimg="si0017.gif" overflow="scroll"><mml:mrow><mml:mo>></mml:mo>
<mml:mn>35</mml:mn>
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) of the MERS epidemic. Finally, we also present results of an uncertainty analysis focused on the role of superspreading events.</p>
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<pmc article-type="research-article"><pmc-dir>properties open_access</pmc-dir>
<front><journal-meta><journal-id journal-id-type="nlm-ta">J Theor Biol</journal-id>
<journal-id journal-id-type="iso-abbrev">J. Theor. Biol</journal-id>
<journal-title-group><journal-title>Journal of Theoretical Biology</journal-title>
</journal-title-group>
<issn pub-type="ppub">0022-5193</issn>
<issn pub-type="epub">1095-8541</issn>
<publisher><publisher-name>The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.</publisher-name>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta><article-id pub-id-type="pmid">27521523</article-id>
<article-id pub-id-type="pmc">7094115</article-id>
<article-id pub-id-type="publisher-id">S0022-5193(16)30243-0</article-id>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.1016/j.jtbi.2016.08.009</article-id>
<article-categories><subj-group subj-group-type="heading"><subject>Article</subject>
</subj-group>
</article-categories>
<title-group><article-title>A dynamic compartmental model for the Middle East respiratory syndrome outbreak in the Republic of Korea: A retrospective analysis on control interventions and superspreading events</article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author" id="au0005"><name><surname>Lee</surname>
<given-names>Jonggul</given-names>
</name>
<email>jack9872@konkuk.ac.kr</email>
<xref rid="aff0005" ref-type="aff">a</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" id="au0010"><name><surname>Chowell</surname>
<given-names>Gerardo</given-names>
</name>
<email>gchowell@gsu.edu</email>
<xref rid="aff0010" ref-type="aff">b</xref>
<xref rid="aff0015" ref-type="aff">c</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" id="au0015"><name><surname>Jung</surname>
<given-names>Eunok</given-names>
</name>
<email>junge@konkuk.ac.kr</email>
<xref rid="aff0005" ref-type="aff">a</xref>
<xref rid="cor1" ref-type="corresp">⁎</xref>
</contrib>
</contrib-group>
<aff id="aff0005"><label>a</label>
Department of Mathematics, Konkuk University, Seoul 05029, Republic of Korea</aff>
<aff id="aff0010"><label>b</label>
School of Public Health, Georgia State University, Atlanta, GA, USA</aff>
<aff id="aff0015"><label>c</label>
Division of International Epidemiology and Population Studies, Fogarty International Center, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD, USA</aff>
<author-notes><corresp id="cor1"><label>⁎</label>
Corresponding author. <email>junge@konkuk.ac.kr</email>
</corresp>
</author-notes>
<pub-date pub-type="pmc-release"><day>10</day>
<month>8</month>
<year>2016</year>
</pub-date>
<pmc-comment> PMC Release delay is 0 months and 0 days and was based on .</pmc-comment>
<pub-date pub-type="ppub"><day>7</day>
<month>11</month>
<year>2016</year>
</pub-date>
<pub-date pub-type="epub"><day>10</day>
<month>8</month>
<year>2016</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>408</volume>
<fpage>118</fpage>
<lpage>126</lpage>
<history><date date-type="received"><day>24</day>
<month>5</month>
<year>2016</year>
</date>
<date date-type="rev-recd"><day>6</day>
<month>8</month>
<year>2016</year>
</date>
<date date-type="accepted"><day>9</day>
<month>8</month>
<year>2016</year>
</date>
</history>
<permissions><copyright-statement>© 2016 The Authors</copyright-statement>
<copyright-year>2016</copyright-year>
<license><license-p>Since January 2020 Elsevier has created a COVID-19 resource centre with free information in English and Mandarin on the novel coronavirus COVID-19. The COVID-19 resource centre is hosted on Elsevier Connect, the company's public news and information website. Elsevier hereby grants permission to make all its COVID-19-related research that is available on the COVID-19 resource centre - including this research content - immediately available in PubMed Central and other publicly funded repositories, such as the WHO COVID database with rights for unrestricted research re-use and analyses in any form or by any means with acknowledgement of the original source. These permissions are granted for free by Elsevier for as long as the COVID-19 resource centre remains active.</license-p>
</license>
</permissions>
<abstract id="ab0010"><p>The 2015 Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS) outbreak in the Republic of Korea has provided an opportunity to improve our understanding of the spread of MERS linked to healthcare settings. Here we designed a dynamic transmission model to analyze the MERS outbreak in the Republic of Korea based on confirmed cases reported during the period May 20–July 4, 2015. Our model explicitly incorporates superspreading events and time-dependent transmission and isolation rates. Our model was able to provide a good fit to the trajectory of the outbreak and was useful to analyze the role of hypothetical control scenarios. Specifically, we assessed the impact of the timing of control measures, especially associated with a reduction of the transmission rate and diagnostic delays on outbreak size and duration. Early interventions within 1 week after the epidemic onset, for instance, including the initial government announcement to the public about the list of hospitals exposed to MERS coronavirus (MERS-CoV), show a promising means to reduce the size (<inline-formula><mml:math id="M1" altimg="si0016.gif" overflow="scroll"><mml:mrow><mml:mo>></mml:mo>
<mml:mn>71</mml:mn>
<mml:mo>%</mml:mo>
</mml:mrow>
</mml:math>
</inline-formula>
) and duration (<inline-formula><mml:math id="M2" altimg="si0017.gif" overflow="scroll"><mml:mrow><mml:mo>></mml:mo>
<mml:mn>35</mml:mn>
<mml:mo>%</mml:mo>
</mml:mrow>
</mml:math>
</inline-formula>
) of the MERS epidemic. Finally, we also present results of an uncertainty analysis focused on the role of superspreading events.</p>
</abstract>
<abstract abstract-type="author-highlights" id="ab0015"><title>Highlights</title>
<p><list list-type="simple" id="li0005"><list-item id="u0005"><label>•</label>
<p id="p0005">A dynamic transmission model for the 2015 MERS outbreak in the Republic of Korea is proposed.</p>
</list-item>
<list-item id="u0010"><label>•</label>
<p id="p0010">Our model incorporates the superspreading events by pulses of infections.</p>
</list-item>
<list-item id="u0015"><label>•</label>
<p id="p0015">We explore the impact of the timing for hypothetical control scenarios.</p>
</list-item>
<list-item id="u0020"><label>•</label>
<p id="p0020">We analyze uncertainties focused on the role of superspreading events.</p>
</list-item>
</list>
</p>
</abstract>
<kwd-group id="keys0005"><title>Keywords</title>
<kwd>MERS</kwd>
<kwd>Superspreader</kwd>
<kwd>Nosocomial infections</kwd>
<kwd>Mathematical modeling</kwd>
<kwd>Republic of Korea</kwd>
<kwd>Infectious diseases</kwd>
</kwd-group>
</article-meta>
</front>
</pmc>
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