The Characteristics of Middle Eastern Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus Transmission Dynamics in South Korea
Identifieur interne : 000990 ( Pmc/Checkpoint ); précédent : 000989; suivant : 000991The Characteristics of Middle Eastern Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus Transmission Dynamics in South Korea
Auteurs : Yunhwan Kim [Corée du Sud] ; Sunmi Lee [Corée du Sud] ; Chaeshin Chu [Corée du Sud] ; Seoyun Choe [Corée du Sud] ; Saeme Hong [Corée du Sud] ; Youngseo Shin [Corée du Sud]Source :
- Osong Public Health and Research Perspectives [ 2210-9099 ] ; 2016.
Abstract
The outbreak of Middle Eastern respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) was one of the major events in South Korea in 2015. In particular, this study pays attention to formulating a mathematical model for MERS transmission dynamics and estimating transmission rates.
Incidence data of MERS-CoV from the government authority was analyzed for the first aim and a mathematical model was built and analyzed for the second aim of the study. A mathematical model for MERS-CoV transmission dynamics is used to estimate the transmission rates in two periods due to the implementation of intensive interventions.
Using the estimates of the transmission rates, the basic reproduction number was estimated in two periods. Due to the superspreader, the basic reproduction number was very large in the first period; however, the basic reproduction number of the second period has reduced significantly after intensive interventions.
It turned out to be the intensive isolation and quarantine interventions that were the most critical factors that prevented the spread of the MERS outbreak. The results are expected to be useful to devise more efficient intervention strategies in the future.
Url:
DOI: 10.1016/j.phrp.2016.01.001
PubMed: 26981343
PubMed Central: 4776270
Affiliations:
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Yongin</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Yongin</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Chu, Chaeshin" sort="Chu, Chaeshin" uniqKey="Chu C" first="Chaeshin" last="Chu">Chaeshin Chu</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff2">Division of Epidemic Intelligence Service, Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Cheongju, Korea</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">Corée du Sud</country><wicri:regionArea>Division of Epidemic Intelligence Service, Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Cheongju</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Cheongju</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Choe, Seoyun" sort="Choe, Seoyun" uniqKey="Choe S" first="Seoyun" last="Choe">Seoyun Choe</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff1">Department of Applied Mathematics, Kyung Hee University, Yongin, Korea</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">Corée du Sud</country><wicri:regionArea>Department of Applied Mathematics, Kyung Hee University, Yongin</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Yongin</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Hong, Saeme" sort="Hong, Saeme" uniqKey="Hong S" first="Saeme" last="Hong">Saeme Hong</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff1">Department of Applied Mathematics, Kyung Hee University, Yongin, Korea</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">Corée du Sud</country><wicri:regionArea>Department of Applied Mathematics, Kyung Hee University, Yongin</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Yongin</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Shin, Youngseo" sort="Shin, Youngseo" uniqKey="Shin Y" first="Youngseo" last="Shin">Youngseo Shin</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff1">Department of Applied Mathematics, Kyung Hee University, Yongin, Korea</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">Corée du Sud</country><wicri:regionArea>Department of Applied Mathematics, Kyung Hee University, 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Transmission Dynamics in South Korea</title><author><name sortKey="Kim, Yunhwan" sort="Kim, Yunhwan" uniqKey="Kim Y" first="Yunhwan" last="Kim">Yunhwan Kim</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff1">Department of Applied Mathematics, Kyung Hee University, Yongin, Korea</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">Corée du Sud</country><wicri:regionArea>Department of Applied Mathematics, Kyung Hee University, Yongin</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Yongin</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Lee, Sunmi" sort="Lee, Sunmi" uniqKey="Lee S" first="Sunmi" last="Lee">Sunmi Lee</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff1">Department of Applied Mathematics, Kyung Hee University, Yongin, Korea</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">Corée du Sud</country><wicri:regionArea>Department of Applied Mathematics, Kyung Hee University, Yongin</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Yongin</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Chu, Chaeshin" sort="Chu, Chaeshin" uniqKey="Chu C" first="Chaeshin" last="Chu">Chaeshin Chu</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff2">Division of Epidemic Intelligence Service, Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Cheongju, Korea</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">Corée du Sud</country><wicri:regionArea>Division of Epidemic Intelligence Service, Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Cheongju</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Cheongju</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Choe, Seoyun" sort="Choe, Seoyun" uniqKey="Choe S" first="Seoyun" last="Choe">Seoyun Choe</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff1">Department of Applied Mathematics, Kyung Hee University, Yongin, Korea</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">Corée du Sud</country><wicri:regionArea>Department of Applied Mathematics, Kyung Hee University, Yongin</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Yongin</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Hong, Saeme" sort="Hong, Saeme" uniqKey="Hong S" first="Saeme" last="Hong">Saeme Hong</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff1">Department of Applied Mathematics, Kyung Hee University, Yongin, Korea</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">Corée du Sud</country><wicri:regionArea>Department of Applied Mathematics, Kyung Hee University, Yongin</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Yongin</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Shin, Youngseo" sort="Shin, Youngseo" uniqKey="Shin Y" first="Youngseo" last="Shin">Youngseo Shin</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff1">Department of Applied Mathematics, Kyung Hee University, Yongin, Korea</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">Corée du Sud</country><wicri:regionArea>Department of Applied Mathematics, Kyung Hee University, Yongin</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Yongin</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author></analytic><series><title level="j">Osong Public Health and Research Perspectives</title><idno type="ISSN">2210-9099</idno><idno type="eISSN">2233-6052</idno><imprint><date when="2016">2016</date></imprint></series></biblStruct></sourceDesc></fileDesc><profileDesc><textClass></textClass></profileDesc></teiHeader><front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en"><sec><title>Objectives</title><p>The outbreak of Middle Eastern respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) was one of the major events in South Korea in 2015. In particular, this study pays attention to formulating a mathematical model for MERS transmission dynamics and estimating transmission rates.</p></sec><sec><title>Methods</title><p>Incidence data of MERS-CoV from the government authority was analyzed for the first aim and a mathematical model was built and analyzed for the second aim of the study. A mathematical model for MERS-CoV transmission dynamics is used to estimate the transmission rates in two periods due to the implementation of intensive interventions.</p></sec><sec><title>Results</title><p>Using the estimates of the transmission rates, the basic reproduction number was estimated in two periods. Due to the superspreader, the basic reproduction number was very large in the first period; however, the basic reproduction number of the second period has reduced significantly after intensive interventions.</p></sec><sec><title>Conclusion</title><p>It turned out to be the intensive isolation and quarantine interventions that were the most critical factors that prevented the spread of the MERS outbreak. The results are expected to be useful to devise more efficient intervention strategies in the future.</p></sec></div></front><back><div1 type="bibliography"><listBibl><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Al Tawfiq, J A" uniqKey="Al Tawfiq J">J.A. Al-Tawfiq</name></author><author><name sortKey="Hinedi, K" uniqKey="Hinedi K">K. Hinedi</name></author><author><name sortKey="Ghandour, J" uniqKey="Ghandour J">J. Ghandour</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Arabi, Y M" uniqKey="Arabi Y">Y.M. Arabi</name></author><author><name sortKey="Arifi, A A" uniqKey="Arifi A">A.A. Arifi</name></author><author><name sortKey="Balkhy, H H" uniqKey="Balkhy H">H.H. Balkhy</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Chowell, G" uniqKey="Chowell G">G. Chowell</name></author><author><name sortKey="Abdirizak, F" uniqKey="Abdirizak F">F. Abdirizak</name></author><author><name sortKey="Lee, S" uniqKey="Lee S">S. Lee</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Cho, H W" uniqKey="Cho H">H.W. Cho</name></author><author><name sortKey="Chu, C" uniqKey="Chu C">C. Chu</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Korea Centers For Disease Control And Prevention" uniqKey="Korea Centers For Disease Control And Prevention">Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Assiri, A" uniqKey="Assiri A">A. Assiri</name></author><author><name sortKey="Al Tawfiq, J A" uniqKey="Al Tawfiq J">J.A. Al-Tawfiq</name></author><author><name sortKey="Al Rabeeah, A A" uniqKey="Al Rabeeah A">A.A. Al-Rabeeah</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Drosten, C" uniqKey="Drosten C">C. Drosten</name></author><author><name sortKey="Seilmaier, M" uniqKey="Seilmaier M">M. Seilmaier</name></author><author><name sortKey="Corman, V M" uniqKey="Corman V">V.M. Corman</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Guery, B" uniqKey="Guery B">B. Guery</name></author><author><name sortKey="Poissy, J" uniqKey="Poissy J">J. Poissy</name></author><author><name sortKey="Mansouf, L E" uniqKey="Mansouf L">L.E. Mansouf</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Memish, Z A" uniqKey="Memish Z">Z.A. Memish</name></author><author><name sortKey="Zumla, A I" uniqKey="Zumla A">A.I. Zumla</name></author><author><name sortKey="Al Hakeem, R F" uniqKey="Al Hakeem R">R.F. Al-Hakeem</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Cauchemez, S" uniqKey="Cauchemez S">S. Cauchemez</name></author><author><name sortKey="Fraser, C" uniqKey="Fraser C">C. Fraser</name></author><author><name sortKey="Van Kerkhove, M D" uniqKey="Van Kerkhove M">M.D. Van Kerkhove</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Breban, R" uniqKey="Breban R">R. Breban</name></author><author><name sortKey="Riou, J" uniqKey="Riou J">J. Riou</name></author><author><name sortKey="Fontanet, A" uniqKey="Fontanet A">A. Fontanet</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Chowell, G" uniqKey="Chowell G">G. Chowell</name></author><author><name sortKey="Blumberg, S" uniqKey="Blumberg S">S. Blumberg</name></author><author><name sortKey="Simonsen, L" uniqKey="Simonsen L">L. Simonsen</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Van Den Driessche, P" uniqKey="Van Den Driessche P">P. van den Driessche</name></author><author><name sortKey="Watmough, J" uniqKey="Watmough J">J. Watmough</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Fisman, D N" uniqKey="Fisman D">D.N. Fisman</name></author><author><name sortKey="Tuite, A R" uniqKey="Tuite A">A.R. Tuite</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Choi, J W" uniqKey="Choi J">J.W. Choi</name></author><author><name sortKey="Kim, K H" uniqKey="Kim K">K.H. Kim</name></author><author><name sortKey="Cho, Y M" uniqKey="Cho Y">Y.M. Cho</name></author></analytic></biblStruct></listBibl></div1></back></TEI><pmc article-type="research-article"><pmc-dir>properties open_access</pmc-dir>
<front><journal-meta><journal-id journal-id-type="nlm-ta">Osong Public Health Res Perspect</journal-id><journal-id journal-id-type="iso-abbrev">Osong Public Health Res Perspect</journal-id><journal-title-group><journal-title>Osong Public Health and Research Perspectives</journal-title></journal-title-group><issn pub-type="ppub">2210-9099</issn><issn pub-type="epub">2233-6052</issn><publisher><publisher-name>Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention</publisher-name></publisher></journal-meta><article-meta><article-id pub-id-type="pmid">26981343</article-id><article-id pub-id-type="pmc">4776270</article-id><article-id pub-id-type="publisher-id">S2210-9099(15)30100-4</article-id><article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.1016/j.phrp.2016.01.001</article-id><article-categories><subj-group subj-group-type="heading"><subject>Article</subject></subj-group></article-categories><title-group><article-title>The Characteristics of Middle Eastern Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus Transmission Dynamics in South Korea</article-title></title-group><contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author" id="au1"><name><surname>Kim</surname><given-names>Yunhwan</given-names></name><xref rid="aff1" ref-type="aff">a</xref></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author" id="au2"><name><surname>Lee</surname><given-names>Sunmi</given-names></name><email>sunmilee@khu.ac.kr</email><xref rid="aff1" ref-type="aff">a</xref><xref rid="cor1" ref-type="corresp">∗</xref></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author" id="au3"><name><surname>Chu</surname><given-names>Chaeshin</given-names></name><xref rid="aff2" ref-type="aff">b</xref></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author" id="au4"><name><surname>Choe</surname><given-names>Seoyun</given-names></name><xref rid="aff1" ref-type="aff">a</xref></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author" id="au5"><name><surname>Hong</surname><given-names>Saeme</given-names></name><xref rid="aff1" ref-type="aff">a</xref></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author" id="au6"><name><surname>Shin</surname><given-names>Youngseo</given-names></name><xref rid="aff1" ref-type="aff">a</xref></contrib></contrib-group><aff id="aff1"><label>a</label>Department of Applied Mathematics, Kyung Hee University, Yongin, Korea</aff><aff id="aff2"><label>b</label>Division of Epidemic Intelligence Service, Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Cheongju, Korea</aff><author-notes><corresp id="cor1"><label>∗</label>Corresponding author. <email>sunmilee@khu.ac.kr</email></corresp></author-notes><pub-date pub-type="pmc-release"><day>18</day><month>1</month><year>2016</year></pub-date><pmc-comment> PMC Release delay is 0 months and 0 days and was based on .</pmc-comment>
<pub-date pub-type="ppub"><month>2</month><year>2016</year></pub-date><pub-date pub-type="epub"><day>18</day><month>1</month><year>2016</year></pub-date><volume>7</volume><issue>1</issue><fpage>49</fpage><lpage>55</lpage><history><date date-type="received"><day>22</day><month>12</month><year>2015</year></date><date date-type="accepted"><day>10</day><month>1</month><year>2016</year></date></history><permissions><copyright-statement>Copyright © 2016 Published by Elsevier Korea LLC.</copyright-statement><copyright-year>2016</copyright-year><copyright-holder></copyright-holder><license><license-p>Since January 2020 Elsevier has created a COVID-19 resource centre with free information in English and Mandarin on the novel coronavirus COVID-19. The COVID-19 resource centre is hosted on Elsevier Connect, the company's public news and information website. Elsevier hereby grants permission to make all its COVID-19-related research that is available on the COVID-19 resource centre - including this research content - immediately available in PubMed Central and other publicly funded repositories, such as the WHO COVID database with rights for unrestricted research re-use and analyses in any form or by any means with acknowledgement of the original source. These permissions are granted for free by Elsevier for as long as the COVID-19 resource centre remains active.</license-p></license></permissions><abstract id="abs0010"><sec><title>Objectives</title><p>The outbreak of Middle Eastern respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) was one of the major events in South Korea in 2015. In particular, this study pays attention to formulating a mathematical model for MERS transmission dynamics and estimating transmission rates.</p></sec><sec><title>Methods</title><p>Incidence data of MERS-CoV from the government authority was analyzed for the first aim and a mathematical model was built and analyzed for the second aim of the study. A mathematical model for MERS-CoV transmission dynamics is used to estimate the transmission rates in two periods due to the implementation of intensive interventions.</p></sec><sec><title>Results</title><p>Using the estimates of the transmission rates, the basic reproduction number was estimated in two periods. Due to the superspreader, the basic reproduction number was very large in the first period; however, the basic reproduction number of the second period has reduced significantly after intensive interventions.</p></sec><sec><title>Conclusion</title><p>It turned out to be the intensive isolation and quarantine interventions that were the most critical factors that prevented the spread of the MERS outbreak. The results are expected to be useful to devise more efficient intervention strategies in the future.</p></sec></abstract><kwd-group id="kwrds0010"><title>Keywords</title><kwd>basic reproduction number</kwd><kwd>mathematical transmission model</kwd><kwd>Middle Eastern respiratory syndrome, coronavirus</kwd><kwd>parameter estimation</kwd></kwd-group></article-meta></front></pmc><affiliations><list><country><li>Corée du Sud</li></country></list><tree><country name="Corée du Sud"><noRegion><name sortKey="Kim, Yunhwan" sort="Kim, Yunhwan" uniqKey="Kim Y" first="Yunhwan" last="Kim">Yunhwan Kim</name></noRegion><name sortKey="Choe, Seoyun" sort="Choe, Seoyun" uniqKey="Choe S" first="Seoyun" last="Choe">Seoyun Choe</name><name sortKey="Chu, Chaeshin" sort="Chu, Chaeshin" uniqKey="Chu C" first="Chaeshin" last="Chu">Chaeshin Chu</name><name sortKey="Hong, Saeme" sort="Hong, Saeme" uniqKey="Hong S" first="Saeme" last="Hong">Saeme Hong</name><name sortKey="Lee, Sunmi" sort="Lee, Sunmi" uniqKey="Lee S" first="Sunmi" last="Lee">Sunmi Lee</name><name sortKey="Shin, Youngseo" sort="Shin, Youngseo" uniqKey="Shin Y" first="Youngseo" last="Shin">Youngseo Shin</name></country></tree></affiliations></record>Pour manipuler ce document sous Unix (Dilib)
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