Mathematical model of infection kinetics and its analysis for COVID-19, SARS and MERS
Identifieur interne : 002741 ( Ncbi/Merge ); précédent : 002740; suivant : 002742Mathematical model of infection kinetics and its analysis for COVID-19, SARS and MERS
Auteurs : Kaihao LiangSource :
- Infection, Genetics and Evolution [ 1567-1348 ] ; 2020.
Abstract
The purpose of this paper is to reveal the spread rules of the three pneumonia: COVID-19, SARS and MERS. We compare the new spread characteristics of COVID-19 with those of SARS and MERS. By considering the growth rate and inhibition constant of infectious diseases, their propagation growth model is established. The parameters of the three coronavirus transmission growth models are obtained by nonlinear fitting. Parametric analysis shows that the growth rate of COVID-19 is about twice that of the SARS and MERS, and the COVID-19 doubling cycle is two to three days, suggesting that the number of COVID-19 patients would double in two to three days without human intervention. The infection inhibition constant in Hubei is two orders of magnitude lower than in other regions, which reasonably explains the situation of the COVID-19 outbreak in Hubei.
Url:
DOI: 10.1016/j.meegid.2020.104306
PubMed: 32278147
PubMed Central: 7141629
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<front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en"><p>The purpose of this paper is to reveal the spread rules of the three pneumonia: COVID-19, SARS and MERS. We compare the new spread characteristics of COVID-19 with those of SARS and MERS. By considering the growth rate and inhibition constant of infectious diseases, their propagation growth model is established. The parameters of the three coronavirus transmission growth models are obtained by nonlinear fitting. Parametric analysis shows that the growth rate of COVID-19 is about twice that of the SARS and MERS, and the COVID-19 doubling cycle is two to three days, suggesting that the number of COVID-19 patients would double in two to three days without human intervention. The infection inhibition constant in Hubei is two orders of magnitude lower than in other regions, which reasonably explains the situation of the COVID-19 outbreak in Hubei.</p>
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<front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en"><p>The purpose of this paper is to reveal the spread rules of the three pneumonia: COVID-19, SARS and MERS. We compare the new spread characteristics of COVID-19 with those of SARS and MERS. By considering the growth rate and inhibition constant of infectious diseases, their propagation growth model is established. The parameters of the three coronavirus transmission growth models are obtained by nonlinear fitting. Parametric analysis shows that the growth rate of COVID-19 is about twice that of the SARS and MERS, and the COVID-19 doubling cycle is two to three days, suggesting that the number of COVID-19 patients would double in two to three days without human intervention. The infection inhibition constant in Hubei is two orders of magnitude lower than in other regions, which reasonably explains the situation of the COVID-19 outbreak in Hubei.</p>
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<author><name sortKey="Liang, Kaihao" sort="Liang, Kaihao" uniqKey="Liang K" first="Kaihao" last="Liang">Kaihao Liang</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>College of Computational Science, Zhongkai University of Agriculture and Engineering, Guangzhou 510225, China. Electronic address: karman03@126.com.</nlm:affiliation>
<country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country>
<wicri:regionArea>College of Computational Science, Zhongkai University of Agriculture and Engineering, Guangzhou 510225</wicri:regionArea>
<placeName><settlement type="city">Jiangmen</settlement>
<region type="province">Guangdong</region>
</placeName>
</affiliation>
</author>
</analytic>
<series><title level="j">Infection, genetics and evolution : journal of molecular epidemiology and evolutionary genetics in infectious diseases</title>
<idno type="eISSN">1567-7257</idno>
<imprint><date when="2020" type="published">2020</date>
</imprint>
</series>
</biblStruct>
</sourceDesc>
</fileDesc>
<profileDesc><textClass></textClass>
</profileDesc>
</teiHeader>
<front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en">The purpose of this paper is to reveal the spread rules of the three pneumonia: COVID-19, SARS and MERS. We compare the new spread characteristics of COVID-19 with those of SARS and MERS. By considering the growth rate and inhibition constant of infectious diseases, their propagation growth model is established. The parameters of the three coronavirus transmission growth models are obtained by nonlinear fitting. Parametric analysis shows that the growth rate of COVID-19 is about twice that of the SARS and MERS, and the COVID-19 doubling cycle is two to three days, suggesting that the number of COVID-19 patients would double in two to three days without human intervention. The infection inhibition constant in Hubei is two orders of magnitude lower than in other regions, which reasonably explains the situation of the COVID-19 outbreak in Hubei.</div>
</front>
</TEI>
</pubmed>
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