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Mathematical model of infection kinetics and its analysis for COVID-19, SARS and MERS.

Identifieur interne : 000050 ( PubMed/Corpus ); précédent : 000049; suivant : 000051

Mathematical model of infection kinetics and its analysis for COVID-19, SARS and MERS.

Source :

Infection, genetics and evolution : journal of molecular epidemiology and evolutionary genetics in infectious diseases [ 1567-7257 ] ; 2020.

RBID : pubmed:32278147

Abstract

The purpose of this paper is to reveal the spread rules of the three pneumonia: COVID-19, SARS and MERS. We compare the new spread characteristics of COVID-19 with those of SARS and MERS. By considering the growth rate and inhibition constant of infectious diseases, their propagation growth model is established. The parameters of the three coronavirus transmission growth models are obtained by nonlinear fitting. Parametric analysis shows that the growth rate of COVID-19 is about twice that of the SARS and MERS, and the COVID-19 doubling cycle is two to three days, suggesting that the number of COVID-19 patients would double in two to three days without human intervention. The infection inhibition constant in Hubei is two orders of magnitude lower than in other regions, which reasonably explains the situation of the COVID-19 outbreak in Hubei.

DOI: 10.1016/j.meegid.2020.104306
PubMed: 32278147

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pubmed:32278147

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<author><name sortKey="Liang, Kaihao" sort="Liang, Kaihao" uniqKey="Liang K" first="Kaihao" last="Liang">Kaihao Liang</name>
<affiliation><nlm:affiliation>College of Computational Science, Zhongkai University of Agriculture and Engineering, Guangzhou 510225, China. Electronic address: karman03@126.com.</nlm:affiliation>
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<author><name sortKey="Liang, Kaihao" sort="Liang, Kaihao" uniqKey="Liang K" first="Kaihao" last="Liang">Kaihao Liang</name>
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<series><title level="j">Infection, genetics and evolution : journal of molecular epidemiology and evolutionary genetics in infectious diseases</title>
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<front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en">The purpose of this paper is to reveal the spread rules of the three pneumonia: COVID-19, SARS and MERS. We compare the new spread characteristics of COVID-19 with those of SARS and MERS. By considering the growth rate and inhibition constant of infectious diseases, their propagation growth model is established. The parameters of the three coronavirus transmission growth models are obtained by nonlinear fitting. Parametric analysis shows that the growth rate of COVID-19 is about twice that of the SARS and MERS, and the COVID-19 doubling cycle is two to three days, suggesting that the number of COVID-19 patients would double in two to three days without human intervention. The infection inhibition constant in Hubei is two orders of magnitude lower than in other regions, which reasonably explains the situation of the COVID-19 outbreak in Hubei.</div>
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<DateRevised><Year>2020</Year>
<Month>04</Month>
<Day>17</Day>
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<Title>Infection, genetics and evolution : journal of molecular epidemiology and evolutionary genetics in infectious diseases</Title>
<ISOAbbreviation>Infect. Genet. Evol.</ISOAbbreviation>
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<Abstract><AbstractText>The purpose of this paper is to reveal the spread rules of the three pneumonia: COVID-19, SARS and MERS. We compare the new spread characteristics of COVID-19 with those of SARS and MERS. By considering the growth rate and inhibition constant of infectious diseases, their propagation growth model is established. The parameters of the three coronavirus transmission growth models are obtained by nonlinear fitting. Parametric analysis shows that the growth rate of COVID-19 is about twice that of the SARS and MERS, and the COVID-19 doubling cycle is two to three days, suggesting that the number of COVID-19 patients would double in two to three days without human intervention. The infection inhibition constant in Hubei is two orders of magnitude lower than in other regions, which reasonably explains the situation of the COVID-19 outbreak in Hubei.</AbstractText>
<CopyrightInformation>Copyright © 2020. Published by Elsevier B.V.</CopyrightInformation>
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<AuthorList CompleteYN="Y"><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Liang</LastName>
<ForeName>Kaihao</ForeName>
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<MedlineJournalInfo><Country>Netherlands</Country>
<MedlineTA>Infect Genet Evol</MedlineTA>
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<KeywordList Owner="NOTNLM"><Keyword MajorTopicYN="N">2008 MSC: R181.2</Keyword>
<Keyword MajorTopicYN="N">COVID-19</Keyword>
<Keyword MajorTopicYN="N">Coronavirus</Keyword>
<Keyword MajorTopicYN="N">Infectious kinetics</Keyword>
<Keyword MajorTopicYN="N">MERS</Keyword>
<Keyword MajorTopicYN="N">SARS</Keyword>
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<CoiStatement>Declaration of Competing Interest The authors declared that they have no conflicts of interest to this work.</CoiStatement>
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Mathematical model of infection kinetics and its analysis for COVID-19, SARS and MERS.

Mathematical model of infection kinetics and its analysis for COVID-19, SARS and MERS.

Source :

Abstract

Links to Exploration step

Le document en format XML

Pour manipuler ce document sous Unix (Dilib)

Pour mettre un lien sur cette page dans le réseau Wicri

Pour générer des pages wiki