Quantifying spatiotemporal heterogeneity of MERS-CoV transmission in the Middle East region: A combined modelling approach
Identifieur interne : 001612 ( Main/Merge ); précédent : 001611; suivant : 001613Quantifying spatiotemporal heterogeneity of MERS-CoV transmission in the Middle East region: A combined modelling approach
Auteurs : Chiara Poletto [France] ; Vittoria Colizza [France, Italie] ; Pierre-Yves Boëlle [France]Source :
- Epidemics [ 1755-4365 ] ; 2015.
Descripteurs français
- KwdFr :
- MESH :
English descriptors
- KwdEn :
- MESH :
- epidemiology : Coronavirus Infections, Middle East.
- transmission : Coronavirus Infections.
- Epidemics, Humans, Incidence, Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus, Spatio-Temporal Analysis, Stochastic Processes.
- mix :
Abstract
We modelled MERS epidemic in the Middle East region up to September 2014. We assessed spatiotemporal variation in zoonotic and human transmission. Spring 2014 wave showed a 17-fold and 3-fold increase in the above transmissions. Zoonotic transmission has a larger spatial heterogeneity than human transmission. Human transmission is more frequent than expected (75% of cases vs. 34%).
Url:
DOI: 10.1016/j.epidem.2015.12.001
PubMed: 27266844
PubMed Central: 7104927
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PMC:7104927Le document en format XML
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UPMC Univ Paris 06, INSERM, Institut Pierre Louis d’épidémiologie et de Santé Publique (IPLESP UMRS 1136), F75012, 27 rue Chaligny, Paris 75012, France</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">France</country><wicri:regionArea>Sorbonne Universités, UPMC Univ Paris 06, INSERM, Institut Pierre Louis d’épidémiologie et de Santé Publique (IPLESP UMRS 1136), F75012, 27 rue Chaligny, Paris 75012</wicri:regionArea><placeName><region type="region" nuts="2">Île-de-France</region></placeName></affiliation><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff0010">Institute for Scientific Interchange Foundation, via Alassio 11/c, Torino 10126, Italy</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">Italie</country><wicri:regionArea>Institute for Scientific Interchange Foundation, via Alassio 11/c, Torino 10126</wicri:regionArea><placeName><settlement type="city">Turin</settlement><region type="région" nuts="2">Piémont</region></placeName></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Boelle, Pierre Yves" sort="Boelle, Pierre Yves" uniqKey="Boelle P" first="Pierre-Yves" last="Boëlle">Pierre-Yves Boëlle</name><affiliation wicri:level="3"><nlm:aff id="aff0005">Sorbonne Universités, UPMC Univ Paris 06, INSERM, Institut Pierre Louis d’épidémiologie et de Santé Publique (IPLESP UMRS 1136), F75012, 27 rue Chaligny, Paris 75012, France</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">France</country><wicri:regionArea>Sorbonne Universités, UPMC Univ Paris 06, INSERM, Institut Pierre Louis d’épidémiologie et de Santé Publique (IPLESP UMRS 1136), F75012, 27 rue Chaligny, Paris 75012</wicri:regionArea><placeName><region type="region" nuts="2">Île-de-France</region></placeName></affiliation></author></analytic><series><title level="j">Epidemics</title><idno type="ISSN">1755-4365</idno><idno type="eISSN">1878-0067</idno><imprint><date when="2015">2015</date></imprint></series></biblStruct></sourceDesc></fileDesc><profileDesc><textClass><keywords scheme="KwdEn" xml:lang="en"><term>Coronavirus Infections (epidemiology)</term><term>Coronavirus Infections (transmission)</term><term>Epidemics</term><term>Humans</term><term>Incidence</term><term>Middle East (epidemiology)</term><term>Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus</term><term>Spatio-Temporal Analysis</term><term>Stochastic Processes</term></keywords><keywords scheme="KwdFr" xml:lang="fr"><term>Analyse spatio-temporelle</term><term>Coronavirus du syndrome respiratoire du Moyen-Orient</term><term>Humains</term><term>Incidence</term><term>Infections à coronavirus (transmission)</term><term>Infections à coronavirus (épidémiologie)</term><term>Moyen Orient (épidémiologie)</term><term>Processus stochastiques</term><term>Épidémies</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="epidemiology" xml:lang="en"><term>Coronavirus Infections</term><term>Middle East</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="transmission" xml:lang="en"><term>Coronavirus Infections</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="épidémiologie" xml:lang="fr"><term>Infections à coronavirus</term><term>Moyen Orient</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" xml:lang="en"><term>Epidemics</term><term>Humans</term><term>Incidence</term><term>Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus</term><term>Spatio-Temporal Analysis</term><term>Stochastic Processes</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" xml:lang="fr"><term>Analyse spatio-temporelle</term><term>Coronavirus du syndrome respiratoire du Moyen-Orient</term><term>Humains</term><term>Incidence</term><term>Processus stochastiques</term><term>Épidémies</term></keywords><keywords scheme="mix" xml:lang="en"><term>Middle East respiratory syndrome</term><term>Multi-mode transmission</term><term>Outbreak analysis</term><term>Spatiotemporal heterogeneity</term></keywords></textClass></profileDesc></teiHeader><front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en"><title>Highlights</title><p><list list-type="simple" id="lis0005"><list-item id="lsti0005"><label>•</label><p id="par0005">We modelled MERS epidemic in the Middle East region up to September 2014.</p></list-item><list-item id="lsti0010"><label>•</label><p id="par0010">We assessed spatiotemporal variation in zoonotic and human transmission.</p></list-item><list-item id="lsti0015"><label>•</label><p id="par0015">Spring 2014 wave showed a 17-fold and 3-fold increase in the above transmissions.</p></list-item><list-item id="lsti0020"><label>•</label><p id="par0020">Zoonotic transmission has a larger spatial heterogeneity than human transmission.</p></list-item><list-item id="lsti0025"><label>•</label><p id="par0025">Human transmission is more frequent than expected (75% of cases vs. 34%).</p></list-item></list></p></div></front><back><div1 type="bibliography"><listBibl><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Alagaili, A N" uniqKey="Alagaili A">A.N. 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Lau</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct></biblStruct><biblStruct></biblStruct></listBibl></div1></back></TEI><double doi="10.1016/j.epidem.2015.12.001"><HAL><TEI><teiHeader><fileDesc><titleStmt><title xml:lang="en">Quantifying spatiotemporal heterogeneity of MERS-CoV transmission in the Middle East region: a combined modelling approach</title><author><name sortKey="Poletto, Chiara" sort="Poletto, Chiara" uniqKey="Poletto C" first="Chiara" last="Poletto">Chiara Poletto</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><hal:affiliation type="laboratory" xml:id="struct-267618" status="OLD"> <idno type="RNSR">201420917E</idno> <orgName>Institut Pierre Louis d'Epidémiologie et de Santé Publique</orgName> <orgName type="acronym">iPLESP</orgName> <desc> <address> <addrLine>56, boulevard Vincent Auriol - CS 81393 - 75646 Paris Cedex 13</addrLine> <country key="FR"></country> </address> <ref type="url">https://www.iplesp.upmc.fr/</ref> </desc> <listRelation> <relation active="#struct-93591" type="direct"></relation> <relation name="U1136" active="#struct-303623" type="direct"></relation> </listRelation> <tutelles><tutelle active="#struct-93591" type="direct"><org type="institution" xml:id="struct-93591" status="OLD"> <orgName>Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6</orgName> <orgName type="acronym">UPMC</orgName> <date type="end">2017-12-31</date> <desc> <address> <addrLine>4 place Jussieu - 75005 Paris</addrLine> <country key="FR"></country> </address> <ref type="url">http://www.upmc.fr/</ref> </desc> </org></tutelle><tutelle name="U1136" active="#struct-303623" type="direct"><org type="institution" xml:id="struct-303623" status="VALID"> <idno type="IdRef">026388278</idno> <orgName>Institut National de la Santé et de la Recherche Médicale</orgName> <orgName type="acronym">INSERM</orgName> <desc> <address> <addrLine>101, rue de Tolbiac, 75013 Paris </addrLine> <country key="FR"></country> </address> <ref type="url">http://www.inserm.fr</ref> </desc> </org></tutelle></tutelles></hal:affiliation><country>France</country></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Colizza, Vittoria" sort="Colizza, Vittoria" uniqKey="Colizza V" first="Vittoria" last="Colizza">Vittoria Colizza</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><hal:affiliation type="laboratory" xml:id="struct-178560" status="INCOMING"> <orgName>Institute for Scientific Interchange (ISI) Foundation</orgName> <desc> <address> <country key="IT"></country> </address> </desc> <listRelation> <relation active="#struct-342173" type="direct"></relation> </listRelation> <tutelles><tutelle active="#struct-342173" type="direct"><org type="institution" xml:id="struct-342173" status="INCOMING"> <orgName>Institute for Scientific Interchange (ISI) Foundation</orgName> <desc> <address> <country key="FR"></country> </address> </desc> </org></tutelle></tutelles></hal:affiliation><country>Italie</country></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Boelle, Pierre Yves" sort="Boelle, Pierre Yves" uniqKey="Boelle P" first="Pierre-Yves" last="Boëlle">Pierre-Yves Boëlle</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><hal:affiliation type="laboratory" xml:id="struct-267618" status="OLD"> <idno type="RNSR">201420917E</idno> <orgName>Institut Pierre Louis d'Epidémiologie et de Santé Publique</orgName> <orgName type="acronym">iPLESP</orgName> <desc> <address> <addrLine>56, boulevard Vincent Auriol - CS 81393 - 75646 Paris Cedex 13</addrLine> <country key="FR"></country> </address> <ref type="url">https://www.iplesp.upmc.fr/</ref> </desc> <listRelation> <relation active="#struct-93591" type="direct"></relation> <relation name="U1136" active="#struct-303623" type="direct"></relation> </listRelation> <tutelles><tutelle active="#struct-93591" type="direct"><org type="institution" xml:id="struct-93591" status="OLD"> <orgName>Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6</orgName> <orgName type="acronym">UPMC</orgName> <date type="end">2017-12-31</date> <desc> <address> <addrLine>4 place Jussieu - 75005 Paris</addrLine> <country key="FR"></country> </address> <ref type="url">http://www.upmc.fr/</ref> </desc> </org></tutelle><tutelle name="U1136" active="#struct-303623" type="direct"><org type="institution" xml:id="struct-303623" status="VALID"> <idno type="IdRef">026388278</idno> <orgName>Institut National de la Santé et de la Recherche Médicale</orgName> <orgName type="acronym">INSERM</orgName> <desc> <address> <addrLine>101, rue de Tolbiac, 75013 Paris </addrLine> <country key="FR"></country> </address> <ref type="url">http://www.inserm.fr</ref> </desc> </org></tutelle></tutelles></hal:affiliation><country>France</country></affiliation></author></titleStmt><publicationStmt><idno type="wicri:source">HAL</idno><idno type="RBID">Hal:hal-01246336</idno><idno type="halId">hal-01246336</idno><idno type="halUri">https://hal.sorbonne-universite.fr/hal-01246336</idno><idno type="url">https://hal.sorbonne-universite.fr/hal-01246336</idno><idno type="doi">10.1016/j.epidem.2015.12.001</idno><date when="2016-06">2016-06</date><idno type="wicri:Area/Hal/Corpus">000018</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/Hal/Curation">000018</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/Hal/Checkpoint">000014</idno><idno type="wicri:explorRef" wicri:stream="Hal" wicri:step="Checkpoint">000014</idno><idno type="wicri:doubleKey">1755-4365:2016:Poletto C:quantifying:spatiotemporal:heterogeneity</idno></publicationStmt><sourceDesc><biblStruct><analytic><title xml:lang="en">Quantifying spatiotemporal heterogeneity of MERS-CoV transmission in the Middle East region: a combined modelling approach</title><author><name sortKey="Poletto, Chiara" sort="Poletto, Chiara" uniqKey="Poletto C" first="Chiara" last="Poletto">Chiara Poletto</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><hal:affiliation type="laboratory" xml:id="struct-267618" status="OLD"> <idno type="RNSR">201420917E</idno> <orgName>Institut Pierre Louis d'Epidémiologie et de Santé Publique</orgName> <orgName type="acronym">iPLESP</orgName> <desc> <address> <addrLine>56, boulevard Vincent Auriol - CS 81393 - 75646 Paris Cedex 13</addrLine> <country key="FR"></country> </address> <ref type="url">https://www.iplesp.upmc.fr/</ref> </desc> <listRelation> <relation active="#struct-93591" type="direct"></relation> <relation name="U1136" active="#struct-303623" type="direct"></relation> </listRelation> <tutelles><tutelle active="#struct-93591" type="direct"><org type="institution" xml:id="struct-93591" status="OLD"> <orgName>Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6</orgName> <orgName type="acronym">UPMC</orgName> <date type="end">2017-12-31</date> <desc> <address> <addrLine>4 place Jussieu - 75005 Paris</addrLine> <country key="FR"></country> </address> <ref type="url">http://www.upmc.fr/</ref> </desc> </org></tutelle><tutelle name="U1136" active="#struct-303623" type="direct"><org type="institution" xml:id="struct-303623" status="VALID"> <idno type="IdRef">026388278</idno> <orgName>Institut National de la Santé et de la Recherche Médicale</orgName> <orgName type="acronym">INSERM</orgName> <desc> <address> <addrLine>101, rue de Tolbiac, 75013 Paris </addrLine> <country key="FR"></country> </address> <ref type="url">http://www.inserm.fr</ref> </desc> </org></tutelle></tutelles></hal:affiliation><country>France</country></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Colizza, Vittoria" sort="Colizza, Vittoria" uniqKey="Colizza V" first="Vittoria" last="Colizza">Vittoria Colizza</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><hal:affiliation type="laboratory" xml:id="struct-178560" status="INCOMING"> <orgName>Institute for Scientific Interchange (ISI) Foundation</orgName> <desc> <address> <country key="IT"></country> </address> </desc> <listRelation> <relation active="#struct-342173" type="direct"></relation> </listRelation> <tutelles><tutelle active="#struct-342173" type="direct"><org type="institution" xml:id="struct-342173" status="INCOMING"> <orgName>Institute for Scientific Interchange (ISI) Foundation</orgName> <desc> <address> <country key="FR"></country> </address> </desc> </org></tutelle></tutelles></hal:affiliation><country>Italie</country></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Boelle, Pierre Yves" sort="Boelle, Pierre Yves" uniqKey="Boelle P" first="Pierre-Yves" last="Boëlle">Pierre-Yves Boëlle</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><hal:affiliation type="laboratory" xml:id="struct-267618" status="OLD"> <idno type="RNSR">201420917E</idno> <orgName>Institut Pierre Louis d'Epidémiologie et de Santé Publique</orgName> <orgName type="acronym">iPLESP</orgName> <desc> <address> <addrLine>56, boulevard Vincent Auriol - CS 81393 - 75646 Paris Cedex 13</addrLine> <country key="FR"></country> </address> <ref type="url">https://www.iplesp.upmc.fr/</ref> </desc> <listRelation> <relation active="#struct-93591" type="direct"></relation> <relation name="U1136" active="#struct-303623" type="direct"></relation> </listRelation> <tutelles><tutelle active="#struct-93591" type="direct"><org type="institution" xml:id="struct-93591" status="OLD"> <orgName>Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6</orgName> <orgName type="acronym">UPMC</orgName> <date type="end">2017-12-31</date> <desc> <address> <addrLine>4 place Jussieu - 75005 Paris</addrLine> <country key="FR"></country> </address> <ref type="url">http://www.upmc.fr/</ref> </desc> </org></tutelle><tutelle name="U1136" active="#struct-303623" type="direct"><org type="institution" xml:id="struct-303623" status="VALID"> <idno type="IdRef">026388278</idno> <orgName>Institut National de la Santé et de la Recherche Médicale</orgName> <orgName type="acronym">INSERM</orgName> <desc> <address> <addrLine>101, rue de Tolbiac, 75013 Paris </addrLine> <country key="FR"></country> </address> <ref type="url">http://www.inserm.fr</ref> </desc> </org></tutelle></tutelles></hal:affiliation><country>France</country></affiliation></author></analytic><idno type="DOI">10.1016/j.epidem.2015.12.001</idno><series><title level="j">Epidemics</title><idno type="ISSN">1755-4365</idno><imprint><date type="datePub">2016-06</date></imprint></series></biblStruct></sourceDesc></fileDesc><profileDesc><textClass><keywords scheme="mix" xml:lang="en"><term>Middle East respiratory syndrome</term><term>Multi-mode transmission</term><term>Outbreak analysis</term><term>Spatiotemporal heterogeneity</term></keywords></textClass></profileDesc></teiHeader><front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en"> <p>MERS coronavirus cases notified in the Middle East region since the identification of the virus in 2012 have displayed variations in time and across geography. Through a combined modelling approach, we estimate the rates of generation of cases along the zoonotic and human-to-human transmission routes and assess their spatiotemporal heterogeneity. We consider all cases notified to WHO from March 2012 to mid-September 2014. We use a stochastic modelling of the time series of case incidence in the Middle East region to estimate time- and space-dependent zoonotic and human-to-human transmission parameters. The model also accounts for possible lack of identification of secondary transmissions among notified cases. This approach is combined with the analysis of imported cases out of the region to assess the rate of underreporting of cases. Out of a total of 32 possible models, based on different parameterization and scenario considered, the best-fit model is characterized by a large heterogeneity in time and across space for both zoonotic and human-to-human transmission. The variation in time that occurred during Spring 2014 led to a 17-fold and 3-fold increase in the two transmissions, respectively, bringing the reproductive rate to values above 1 during that period for all regions under study. The model suggests that 75% of MERS-CoV cases are secondary cases (human-to-human transmission), which is substantially higher than the 34% of reported cases with an epidemiological link to another case. Overall, estimated reporting rate is 0.26. Our findings show a higher level of spatial heterogeneity in zoonotic transmission compared to human-to-human, highlighting the strong environmental component of the epidemic. Since sporadic introductions are predicted to be a small proportion of notified cases and are responsible for triggering secondary transmissions, a more comprehensive understanding of zoonotic source and path of transmission could be critical to limit the epidemic spread.</p> </div></front></TEI></HAL><PMC><TEI><teiHeader><fileDesc><titleStmt><title xml:lang="en">Quantifying spatiotemporal heterogeneity of MERS-CoV transmission in the Middle East region: A combined modelling approach</title><author><name sortKey="Poletto, Chiara" sort="Poletto, Chiara" uniqKey="Poletto C" first="Chiara" last="Poletto">Chiara Poletto</name><affiliation wicri:level="3"><nlm:aff id="aff0005">Sorbonne Universités, UPMC Univ Paris 06, INSERM, Institut Pierre Louis d’épidémiologie et de Santé Publique (IPLESP UMRS 1136), F75012, 27 rue Chaligny, Paris 75012, France</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">France</country><wicri:regionArea>Sorbonne Universités, UPMC Univ Paris 06, INSERM, Institut Pierre Louis d’épidémiologie et de Santé Publique (IPLESP UMRS 1136), F75012, 27 rue Chaligny, Paris 75012</wicri:regionArea><placeName><region type="region" nuts="2">Île-de-France</region></placeName></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Colizza, Vittoria" sort="Colizza, Vittoria" uniqKey="Colizza V" first="Vittoria" last="Colizza">Vittoria Colizza</name><affiliation wicri:level="3"><nlm:aff id="aff0005">Sorbonne Universités, UPMC Univ Paris 06, INSERM, Institut Pierre Louis d’épidémiologie et de Santé Publique (IPLESP UMRS 1136), F75012, 27 rue Chaligny, Paris 75012, France</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">France</country><wicri:regionArea>Sorbonne Universités, UPMC Univ Paris 06, INSERM, Institut Pierre Louis d’épidémiologie et de Santé Publique (IPLESP UMRS 1136), F75012, 27 rue Chaligny, Paris 75012</wicri:regionArea><placeName><region type="region" nuts="2">Île-de-France</region></placeName></affiliation><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff0010">Institute for Scientific Interchange Foundation, via Alassio 11/c, Torino 10126, Italy</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">Italie</country><wicri:regionArea>Institute for Scientific Interchange Foundation, via Alassio 11/c, Torino 10126</wicri:regionArea><placeName><settlement type="city">Turin</settlement><region type="région" nuts="2">Piémont</region></placeName></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Boelle, Pierre Yves" sort="Boelle, Pierre Yves" uniqKey="Boelle P" first="Pierre-Yves" last="Boëlle">Pierre-Yves Boëlle</name><affiliation wicri:level="3"><nlm:aff id="aff0005">Sorbonne Universités, UPMC Univ Paris 06, INSERM, Institut Pierre Louis d’épidémiologie et de Santé Publique (IPLESP UMRS 1136), F75012, 27 rue Chaligny, Paris 75012, France</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">France</country><wicri:regionArea>Sorbonne Universités, UPMC Univ Paris 06, INSERM, Institut Pierre Louis d’épidémiologie et de Santé Publique (IPLESP UMRS 1136), F75012, 27 rue Chaligny, Paris 75012</wicri:regionArea><placeName><region type="region" nuts="2">Île-de-France</region></placeName></affiliation></author></titleStmt><publicationStmt><idno type="wicri:source">PMC</idno><idno type="pmid">27266844</idno><idno type="pmc">7104927</idno><idno type="url">http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7104927</idno><idno type="RBID">PMC:7104927</idno><idno type="doi">10.1016/j.epidem.2015.12.001</idno><date when="2015">2015</date><idno type="wicri:Area/Pmc/Corpus">000C42</idno><idno type="wicri:explorRef" wicri:stream="Pmc" wicri:step="Corpus" wicri:corpus="PMC">000C42</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/Pmc/Curation">000C42</idno><idno type="wicri:explorRef" wicri:stream="Pmc" wicri:step="Curation">000C42</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/Pmc/Checkpoint">000D38</idno><idno type="wicri:explorRef" wicri:stream="Pmc" wicri:step="Checkpoint">000D38</idno><idno type="wicri:source">PubMed</idno><idno type="RBID">pubmed:27266844</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/PubMed/Corpus">001095</idno><idno type="wicri:explorRef" wicri:stream="PubMed" wicri:step="Corpus" wicri:corpus="PubMed">001095</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/PubMed/Curation">001095</idno><idno type="wicri:explorRef" wicri:stream="PubMed" wicri:step="Curation">001095</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/PubMed/Checkpoint">000F30</idno><idno type="wicri:explorRef" wicri:stream="Checkpoint" wicri:step="PubMed">000F30</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/Ncbi/Merge">001649</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/Ncbi/Curation">001649</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/Ncbi/Checkpoint">001649</idno><idno type="wicri:doubleKey">1755-4365:2015:Poletto C:quantifying:spatiotemporal:heterogeneity</idno></publicationStmt><sourceDesc><biblStruct><analytic><title xml:lang="en" level="a" type="main">Quantifying spatiotemporal heterogeneity of MERS-CoV transmission in the Middle East region: A combined modelling approach</title><author><name sortKey="Poletto, Chiara" sort="Poletto, Chiara" uniqKey="Poletto C" first="Chiara" last="Poletto">Chiara Poletto</name><affiliation wicri:level="3"><nlm:aff id="aff0005">Sorbonne Universités, UPMC Univ Paris 06, INSERM, Institut Pierre Louis d’épidémiologie et de Santé Publique (IPLESP UMRS 1136), F75012, 27 rue Chaligny, Paris 75012, France</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">France</country><wicri:regionArea>Sorbonne Universités, UPMC Univ Paris 06, INSERM, Institut Pierre Louis d’épidémiologie et de Santé Publique (IPLESP UMRS 1136), F75012, 27 rue Chaligny, Paris 75012</wicri:regionArea><placeName><region type="region" nuts="2">Île-de-France</region></placeName></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Colizza, Vittoria" sort="Colizza, Vittoria" uniqKey="Colizza V" first="Vittoria" last="Colizza">Vittoria Colizza</name><affiliation wicri:level="3"><nlm:aff id="aff0005">Sorbonne Universités, UPMC Univ Paris 06, INSERM, Institut Pierre Louis d’épidémiologie et de Santé Publique (IPLESP UMRS 1136), F75012, 27 rue Chaligny, Paris 75012, France</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">France</country><wicri:regionArea>Sorbonne Universités, UPMC Univ Paris 06, INSERM, Institut Pierre Louis d’épidémiologie et de Santé Publique (IPLESP UMRS 1136), F75012, 27 rue Chaligny, Paris 75012</wicri:regionArea><placeName><region type="region" nuts="2">Île-de-France</region></placeName></affiliation><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff0010">Institute for Scientific Interchange Foundation, via Alassio 11/c, Torino 10126, Italy</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">Italie</country><wicri:regionArea>Institute for Scientific Interchange Foundation, via Alassio 11/c, Torino 10126</wicri:regionArea><placeName><settlement type="city">Turin</settlement><region type="région" nuts="2">Piémont</region></placeName></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Boelle, Pierre Yves" sort="Boelle, Pierre Yves" uniqKey="Boelle P" first="Pierre-Yves" last="Boëlle">Pierre-Yves Boëlle</name><affiliation wicri:level="3"><nlm:aff id="aff0005">Sorbonne Universités, UPMC Univ Paris 06, INSERM, Institut Pierre Louis d’épidémiologie et de Santé Publique (IPLESP UMRS 1136), F75012, 27 rue Chaligny, Paris 75012, France</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">France</country><wicri:regionArea>Sorbonne Universités, UPMC Univ Paris 06, INSERM, Institut Pierre Louis d’épidémiologie et de Santé Publique (IPLESP UMRS 1136), F75012, 27 rue Chaligny, Paris 75012</wicri:regionArea><placeName><region type="region" nuts="2">Île-de-France</region></placeName></affiliation></author></analytic><series><title level="j">Epidemics</title><idno type="ISSN">1755-4365</idno><idno type="eISSN">1878-0067</idno><imprint><date when="2015">2015</date></imprint></series></biblStruct></sourceDesc></fileDesc><profileDesc><textClass><keywords scheme="KwdEn" xml:lang="en"><term>Coronavirus Infections (epidemiology)</term><term>Coronavirus Infections (transmission)</term><term>Epidemics</term><term>Humans</term><term>Incidence</term><term>Middle East (epidemiology)</term><term>Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus</term><term>Spatio-Temporal Analysis</term><term>Stochastic Processes</term></keywords><keywords scheme="KwdFr" xml:lang="fr"><term>Analyse spatio-temporelle</term><term>Coronavirus du syndrome respiratoire du Moyen-Orient</term><term>Humains</term><term>Incidence</term><term>Infections à coronavirus (transmission)</term><term>Infections à coronavirus (épidémiologie)</term><term>Moyen Orient (épidémiologie)</term><term>Processus stochastiques</term><term>Épidémies</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="epidemiology" xml:lang="en"><term>Coronavirus Infections</term><term>Middle East</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="transmission" xml:lang="en"><term>Coronavirus Infections</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="épidémiologie" xml:lang="fr"><term>Infections à coronavirus</term><term>Moyen Orient</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" xml:lang="en"><term>Epidemics</term><term>Humans</term><term>Incidence</term><term>Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus</term><term>Spatio-Temporal Analysis</term><term>Stochastic Processes</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" xml:lang="fr"><term>Analyse spatio-temporelle</term><term>Coronavirus du syndrome respiratoire du Moyen-Orient</term><term>Humains</term><term>Incidence</term><term>Processus stochastiques</term><term>Épidémies</term></keywords></textClass></profileDesc></teiHeader><front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en"><title>Highlights</title><p><list list-type="simple" id="lis0005"><list-item id="lsti0005"><label>•</label><p id="par0005">We modelled MERS epidemic in the Middle East region up to September 2014.</p></list-item><list-item id="lsti0010"><label>•</label><p id="par0010">We assessed spatiotemporal variation in zoonotic and human transmission.</p></list-item><list-item id="lsti0015"><label>•</label><p id="par0015">Spring 2014 wave showed a 17-fold and 3-fold increase in the above transmissions.</p></list-item><list-item id="lsti0020"><label>•</label><p id="par0020">Zoonotic transmission has a larger spatial heterogeneity than human transmission.</p></list-item><list-item id="lsti0025"><label>•</label><p id="par0025">Human transmission is more frequent than expected (75% of cases vs. 34%).</p></list-item></list></p></div></front><back><div1 type="bibliography"><listBibl><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Alagaili, A N" uniqKey="Alagaili A">A.N. 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Pelat</name></author><author><name sortKey="Levy Bruhl, D" uniqKey="Levy Bruhl D">D. Levy-Bruhl</name></author><author><name sortKey="Yazdanpanah, Y" uniqKey="Yazdanpanah Y">Y. Yazdanpanah</name></author><author><name sortKey="Boelle, P Y" uniqKey="Boelle P">P.-Y. Boëlle</name></author><author><name sortKey="Colizza, V" uniqKey="Colizza V">V. Colizza</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Rambaut, A" uniqKey="Rambaut A">A. Rambaut</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Saad, M" uniqKey="Saad M">M. Saad</name></author><author><name sortKey="Omrani, A S" uniqKey="Omrani A">A.S. Omrani</name></author><author><name sortKey="Baig, K" uniqKey="Baig K">K. Baig</name></author><author><name sortKey="Bahloul, A" uniqKey="Bahloul A">A. Bahloul</name></author><author><name sortKey="Elzein, F" uniqKey="Elzein F">F. Elzein</name></author><author><name sortKey="Matin, M A" uniqKey="Matin M">M.A. Matin</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="The Who Mers Cov Research Group" uniqKey="The Who Mers Cov Research Group">The WHO MERS-CoV Research Group</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Wallinga, J" uniqKey="Wallinga J">J. Wallinga</name></author><author><name sortKey="Teunis, P" uniqKey="Teunis P">P. Teunis</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Wernery, U" uniqKey="Wernery U">U. Wernery</name></author><author><name sortKey="Corman, V M" uniqKey="Corman V">V.M. Corman</name></author><author><name sortKey="Wong, E Y M" uniqKey="Wong E">E.Y.M. Wong</name></author><author><name sortKey="Tsang, A K L" uniqKey="Tsang A">A.K.L. Tsang</name></author><author><name sortKey="Muth, D" uniqKey="Muth D">D. Muth</name></author><author><name sortKey="Lau, S K P" uniqKey="Lau S">S.K.P. Lau</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct></biblStruct><biblStruct></biblStruct></listBibl></div1></back></TEI></PMC></double></record>Pour manipuler ce document sous Unix (Dilib)
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