Quantifying spatiotemporal heterogeneity of MERS-CoV transmission in the Middle East region: A combined modelling approach
Identifieur interne : 000C42 ( Pmc/Curation ); précédent : 000C41; suivant : 000C43Quantifying spatiotemporal heterogeneity of MERS-CoV transmission in the Middle East region: A combined modelling approach
Auteurs : Chiara Poletto [France] ; Vittoria Colizza [France, Italie] ; Pierre-Yves Boëlle [France]Source :
- Epidemics [ 1755-4365 ] ; 2015.
Abstract
We modelled MERS epidemic in the Middle East region up to September 2014. We assessed spatiotemporal variation in zoonotic and human transmission. Spring 2014 wave showed a 17-fold and 3-fold increase in the above transmissions. Zoonotic transmission has a larger spatial heterogeneity than human transmission. Human transmission is more frequent than expected (75% of cases vs. 34%).
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DOI: 10.1016/j.epidem.2015.12.001
PubMed: 27266844
PubMed Central: 7104927
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type="wicri:explorRef" wicri:stream="Pmc" wicri:step="Curation">000C42</idno></publicationStmt><sourceDesc><biblStruct><analytic><title xml:lang="en" level="a" type="main">Quantifying spatiotemporal heterogeneity of MERS-CoV transmission in the Middle East region: A combined modelling approach</title><author><name sortKey="Poletto, Chiara" sort="Poletto, Chiara" uniqKey="Poletto C" first="Chiara" last="Poletto">Chiara Poletto</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff0005">Sorbonne Universités, UPMC Univ Paris 06, INSERM, Institut Pierre Louis d’épidémiologie et de Santé Publique (IPLESP UMRS 1136), F75012, 27 rue Chaligny, Paris 75012, France</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">France</country><wicri:regionArea>Sorbonne Universités, UPMC Univ Paris 06, INSERM, Institut Pierre Louis d’épidémiologie et de Santé Publique (IPLESP UMRS 1136), F75012, 27 rue Chaligny, Paris 75012</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Colizza, Vittoria" sort="Colizza, Vittoria" uniqKey="Colizza V" first="Vittoria" last="Colizza">Vittoria Colizza</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff0005">Sorbonne Universités, UPMC Univ Paris 06, INSERM, Institut Pierre Louis d’épidémiologie et de Santé Publique (IPLESP UMRS 1136), F75012, 27 rue Chaligny, Paris 75012, France</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">France</country><wicri:regionArea>Sorbonne Universités, UPMC Univ Paris 06, INSERM, Institut Pierre Louis d’épidémiologie et de Santé Publique (IPLESP UMRS 1136), F75012, 27 rue Chaligny, Paris 75012</wicri:regionArea></affiliation><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff0010">Institute for Scientific Interchange Foundation, via Alassio 11/c, Torino 10126, Italy</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">Italie</country><wicri:regionArea>Institute for Scientific Interchange Foundation, via Alassio 11/c, Torino 10126</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Boelle, Pierre Yves" sort="Boelle, Pierre Yves" uniqKey="Boelle P" first="Pierre-Yves" last="Boëlle">Pierre-Yves Boëlle</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff0005">Sorbonne Universités, UPMC Univ Paris 06, INSERM, Institut Pierre Louis d’épidémiologie et de Santé Publique (IPLESP UMRS 1136), F75012, 27 rue Chaligny, Paris 75012, France</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">France</country><wicri:regionArea>Sorbonne Universités, UPMC Univ Paris 06, INSERM, Institut Pierre Louis d’épidémiologie et de Santé Publique (IPLESP UMRS 1136), F75012, 27 rue Chaligny, Paris 75012</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author></analytic><series><title level="j">Epidemics</title><idno type="ISSN">1755-4365</idno><idno type="eISSN">1878-0067</idno><imprint><date when="2015">2015</date></imprint></series></biblStruct></sourceDesc></fileDesc><profileDesc><textClass></textClass></profileDesc></teiHeader><front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en"><title>Highlights</title><p><list list-type="simple" id="lis0005"><list-item id="lsti0005"><label>•</label><p id="par0005">We modelled MERS epidemic in the Middle East region up to September 2014.</p></list-item><list-item id="lsti0010"><label>•</label><p id="par0010">We assessed spatiotemporal variation in zoonotic and human transmission.</p></list-item><list-item id="lsti0015"><label>•</label><p id="par0015">Spring 2014 wave showed a 17-fold and 3-fold increase in the above transmissions.</p></list-item><list-item id="lsti0020"><label>•</label><p id="par0020">Zoonotic transmission has a larger spatial heterogeneity than human transmission.</p></list-item><list-item id="lsti0025"><label>•</label><p id="par0025">Human transmission is more frequent than expected (75% of cases vs. 34%).</p></list-item></list></p></div></front><back><div1 type="bibliography"><listBibl><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Alagaili, A N" uniqKey="Alagaili A">A.N. 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<front><journal-meta><journal-id journal-id-type="nlm-ta">Epidemics</journal-id><journal-id journal-id-type="iso-abbrev">Epidemics</journal-id><journal-title-group><journal-title>Epidemics</journal-title></journal-title-group><issn pub-type="ppub">1755-4365</issn><issn pub-type="epub">1878-0067</issn><publisher><publisher-name>The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V.</publisher-name></publisher></journal-meta><article-meta><article-id pub-id-type="pmid">27266844</article-id><article-id pub-id-type="pmc">7104927</article-id><article-id pub-id-type="publisher-id">S1755-4365(15)00096-1</article-id><article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.1016/j.epidem.2015.12.001</article-id><article-categories><subj-group subj-group-type="heading"><subject>Article</subject></subj-group></article-categories><title-group><article-title>Quantifying spatiotemporal heterogeneity of MERS-CoV transmission in the Middle East region: A combined modelling approach</article-title></title-group><contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author" id="aut0005"><name><surname>Poletto</surname><given-names>Chiara</given-names></name><email>chiara.poletto@inserm.fr</email><xref rid="aff0005" ref-type="aff">a</xref><xref rid="cor0005" ref-type="corresp">⁎</xref></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author" id="aut0010"><name><surname>Colizza</surname><given-names>Vittoria</given-names></name><xref rid="aff0005" ref-type="aff">a</xref><xref rid="aff0010" ref-type="aff">b</xref></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author" id="aut0015"><name><surname>Boëlle</surname><given-names>Pierre-Yves</given-names></name><xref rid="aff0005" ref-type="aff">a</xref></contrib></contrib-group><aff id="aff0005"><label>a</label>Sorbonne Universités, UPMC Univ Paris 06, INSERM, Institut Pierre Louis d’épidémiologie et de Santé Publique (IPLESP UMRS 1136), F75012, 27 rue Chaligny, Paris 75012, France</aff><aff id="aff0010"><label>b</label>Institute for Scientific Interchange Foundation, via Alassio 11/c, Torino 10126, Italy</aff><author-notes><corresp id="cor0005"><label>⁎</label>Corresponding author. Tel.: +33 144738436. <email>chiara.poletto@inserm.fr</email></corresp></author-notes><pub-date pub-type="pmc-release"><day>17</day><month>12</month><year>2015</year></pub-date><pmc-comment> PMC Release delay is 0 months and 0 days and was based on .</pmc-comment>
<pub-date pub-type="ppub"><month>6</month><year>2016</year></pub-date><pub-date pub-type="epub"><day>17</day><month>12</month><year>2015</year></pub-date><volume>15</volume><fpage>1</fpage><lpage>9</lpage><history><date date-type="received"><day>9</day><month>7</month><year>2015</year></date><date date-type="rev-recd"><day>28</day><month>10</month><year>2015</year></date><date date-type="accepted"><day>9</day><month>12</month><year>2015</year></date></history><permissions><copyright-statement>© 2015 The Authors</copyright-statement><copyright-year>2015</copyright-year><license><license-p>Since January 2020 Elsevier has created a COVID-19 resource centre with free information in English and Mandarin on the novel coronavirus COVID-19. The COVID-19 resource centre is hosted on Elsevier Connect, the company's public news and information website. Elsevier hereby grants permission to make all its COVID-19-related research that is available on the COVID-19 resource centre - including this research content - immediately available in PubMed Central and other publicly funded repositories, such as the WHO COVID database with rights for unrestricted research re-use and analyses in any form or by any means with acknowledgement of the original source. These permissions are granted for free by Elsevier for as long as the COVID-19 resource centre remains active.</license-p></license></permissions><abstract abstract-type="author-highlights" id="abs0005"><title>Highlights</title><p><list list-type="simple" id="lis0005"><list-item id="lsti0005"><label>•</label><p id="par0005">We modelled MERS epidemic in the Middle East region up to September 2014.</p></list-item><list-item id="lsti0010"><label>•</label><p id="par0010">We assessed spatiotemporal variation in zoonotic and human transmission.</p></list-item><list-item id="lsti0015"><label>•</label><p id="par0015">Spring 2014 wave showed a 17-fold and 3-fold increase in the above transmissions.</p></list-item><list-item id="lsti0020"><label>•</label><p id="par0020">Zoonotic transmission has a larger spatial heterogeneity than human transmission.</p></list-item><list-item id="lsti0025"><label>•</label><p id="par0025">Human transmission is more frequent than expected (75% of cases vs. 34%).</p></list-item></list></p></abstract><abstract id="abs0010"><p>MERS coronavirus cases notified in the Middle East region since the identification of the virus in 2012 have displayed variations in time and across geography. Through a combined modelling approach, we estimate the rates of generation of cases along the zoonotic and human-to-human transmission routes and assess their spatiotemporal heterogeneity. We consider all cases notified to WHO from March 2012 to mid-September 2014. We use a stochastic modelling of the time series of case incidence in the Middle East region to estimate time- and space-dependent zoonotic and human-to-human transmission parameters. The model also accounts for possible lack of identification of secondary transmissions among notified cases. This approach is combined with the analysis of imported cases out of the region to assess the rate of underreporting of cases. Out of a total of 32 possible models, based on different parameterisation and scenario considered, the best-fit model is characterised by a large heterogeneity in time and across space for both zoonotic and human-to-human transmission. The variation in time that occurred during Spring 2014 led to a 17-fold and 3-fold increase in the two transmissions, respectively, bringing the reproductive rate to values above 1 during that period for all regions under study. The model suggests that 75% of MERS-CoV cases are secondary cases (human-to-human transmission), which is substantially higher than the 34% of reported cases with an epidemiological link to another case. Overall, estimated reporting rate is 0.26. Our findings show a higher level of spatial heterogeneity in zoonotic transmission compared to human-to-human, highlighting the strong environmental component of the epidemic. Since sporadic introductions are predicted to be a small proportion of notified cases and are responsible for triggering secondary transmissions, a more comprehensive understanding of zoonotic source and path of transmission could be critical to limit the epidemic spread.</p></abstract><kwd-group id="kwd0005"><title>Keywords</title><kwd>Middle East respiratory syndrome</kwd><kwd>Spatiotemporal heterogeneity</kwd><kwd>Outbreak analysis</kwd><kwd>Multi-mode transmission</kwd></kwd-group></article-meta></front></pmc></record>Pour manipuler ce document sous Unix (Dilib)
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