Drivers of airborne human-to-human pathogen transmission
Identifieur interne : 001296 ( Main/Merge ); précédent : 001295; suivant : 001297Drivers of airborne human-to-human pathogen transmission
Auteurs : Sander Herfst [Pays-Bas] ; Michael Böhringer [Allemagne] ; Basel Karo [Allemagne] ; Philip Lawrence [France] ; Nicola S. Lewis [Royaume-Uni] ; Michael J. Mina [États-Unis] ; Charles J. Russell [États-Unis] ; John Steel [États-Unis] ; Rik L. De Swart [Pays-Bas] ; Christian Menge [Allemagne]Source :
- Current Opinion in Virology [ 1879-6257 ] ; 2016.
Descripteurs français
- KwdFr :
- MESH :
English descriptors
- KwdEn :
- MESH :
- chemical : Aerosols.
- transmission : Bacterial Infections, Virus Diseases.
- Air Microbiology, Disease Transmission, Infectious, Humans.
- mix :
Abstract
Chain of pathogen transmission between individual donor and recipient is modeled. Related pairs of efficient and inefficient ‘airborne’ pathogens are contrasted. Drivers operate on tissue, individual, community, country, and global levels. Pandemic risk is heightened by pathogen evolution and changes in host interaction. Ultimate drivers include socio-economic developments and climate changes.
Url:
DOI: 10.1016/j.coviro.2016.11.006
PubMed: 27918958
PubMed Central: 7102691
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PMC:7102691Le document en format XML
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uniqKey="Bohringer M" first="Michael" last="Böhringer">Michael Böhringer</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff0010">Friedrich-Loeffler-Institut, Institute of Bacterial Infections and Zoonoses, Naumburger Str. 96a, 07743 Jena, Germany</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">Allemagne</country><wicri:regionArea>Friedrich-Loeffler-Institut, Institute of Bacterial Infections and Zoonoses, Naumburger Str. 96a, 07743 Jena</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>07743 Jena</wicri:noRegion><wicri:noRegion>07743 Jena</wicri:noRegion><wicri:noRegion>07743 Jena</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Karo, Basel" sort="Karo, Basel" uniqKey="Karo B" first="Basel" last="Karo">Basel Karo</name><affiliation wicri:level="3"><nlm:aff id="aff3">Robert Koch Institut, Department for Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Seestr. 10, 13353 Berlin, Germany</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">Allemagne</country><wicri:regionArea>Robert Koch Institut, Department for Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Seestr. 10, 13353 Berlin</wicri:regionArea><placeName><region type="land" nuts="3">Berlin</region><settlement type="city">Berlin</settlement></placeName></affiliation><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff0015">PhD Programme “Epidemiology”, Braunschweig-Hannover, Germany</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">Allemagne</country><wicri:regionArea>PhD Programme “Epidemiology”, Braunschweig-Hannover</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Braunschweig-Hannover</wicri:noRegion><wicri:noRegion>Braunschweig-Hannover</wicri:noRegion><wicri:noRegion>Braunschweig-Hannover</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Lawrence, Philip" sort="Lawrence, Philip" uniqKey="Lawrence P" first="Philip" last="Lawrence">Philip Lawrence</name><affiliation wicri:level="3"><nlm:aff id="aff0020">Université de Lyon, UMRS 449, Laboratoire de Biologie Générale, Université Catholique de Lyon – EPHE, Lyon 69288, France</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">France</country><wicri:regionArea>Université de Lyon, UMRS 449, Laboratoire de Biologie Générale, Université Catholique de Lyon – EPHE, Lyon 69288</wicri:regionArea><placeName><region type="region" nuts="2">Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes</region><region type="old region" nuts="2">Rhône-Alpes</region></placeName></affiliation><affiliation wicri:level="3"><nlm:aff id="aff0025">Molecular Basis of Viral Pathogenicity, International Centre for Research in Infectiology (CIRI), INSERM U1111 – CNRS UMR5308, Université Lyon 1, Ecole Normale Supérieure de Lyon, Lyon 69007, France</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">France</country><wicri:regionArea>Molecular Basis of Viral Pathogenicity, International Centre for Research in Infectiology (CIRI), INSERM U1111 – CNRS UMR5308, Université Lyon 1, Ecole Normale Supérieure de Lyon, Lyon 69007</wicri:regionArea><placeName><region type="region" nuts="2">Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes</region><region type="old region" nuts="2">Rhône-Alpes</region></placeName></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Lewis, Nicola S" sort="Lewis, Nicola S" uniqKey="Lewis N" first="Nicola S" last="Lewis">Nicola S. Lewis</name><affiliation wicri:level="4"><nlm:aff id="aff0030">Centre for Pathogen Evolution, Department of Zoology, University of Cambridge, Downing Street, Cambridge, United Kingdom</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">Royaume-Uni</country><wicri:regionArea>Centre for Pathogen Evolution, Department of Zoology, University of Cambridge, Downing Street, Cambridge</wicri:regionArea><orgName type="university">Université de Cambridge</orgName><placeName><settlement type="city">Cambridge</settlement><region type="country">Angleterre</region><region type="région" nuts="1">Angleterre de l'Est</region></placeName></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Mina, Michael J" sort="Mina, Michael J" uniqKey="Mina M" first="Michael J" last="Mina">Michael J. Mina</name><affiliation wicri:level="4"><nlm:aff id="aff0035">Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08544, USA</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country><wicri:regionArea>Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08544</wicri:regionArea><placeName><region type="state">New Jersey</region><settlement type="city">Princeton (New Jersey)</settlement></placeName><orgName type="university">Université de Princeton</orgName></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Russell, Charles J" sort="Russell, Charles J" uniqKey="Russell C" first="Charles J" last="Russell">Charles J. Russell</name><affiliation wicri:level="2"><nlm:aff id="aff0040">Department of Infectious Diseases, St. Jude Children's Research Hospital, Memphis, TN 38105, USA</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country><wicri:regionArea>Department of Infectious Diseases, St. Jude Children's Research Hospital, Memphis, TN 38105</wicri:regionArea><placeName><region type="state">Tennessee</region></placeName></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Steel, John" sort="Steel, John" uniqKey="Steel J" first="John" last="Steel">John Steel</name><affiliation wicri:level="2"><nlm:aff id="aff0045">Department of Microbiology and Immunology, Emory University School of Medicine, Atlanta, GA 30322, USA</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country><wicri:regionArea>Department of Microbiology and Immunology, Emory University School of Medicine, Atlanta, GA 30322</wicri:regionArea><placeName><region type="state">Géorgie (États-Unis)</region></placeName></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="De Swart, Rik L" sort="De Swart, Rik L" uniqKey="De Swart R" first="Rik L" last="De Swart">Rik L. De Swart</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff0005">Department of Viroscience, Postgraduate School of Molecular Medicine, Erasmus MC, Wytemaweg 80, 3015 CN Rotterdam, The Netherlands</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">Pays-Bas</country><wicri:regionArea>Department of Viroscience, Postgraduate School of Molecular Medicine, Erasmus MC, Wytemaweg 80, 3015 CN Rotterdam</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>3015 CN Rotterdam</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Menge, Christian" sort="Menge, Christian" uniqKey="Menge C" first="Christian" last="Menge">Christian Menge</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff0050">Friedrich-Loeffler-Institut, Institute of Molecular Pathogenesis, Naumburger Str. 96a, 07743 Jena, Germany</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">Allemagne</country><wicri:regionArea>Friedrich-Loeffler-Institut, Institute of Molecular Pathogenesis, Naumburger Str. 96a, 07743 Jena</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>07743 Jena</wicri:noRegion><wicri:noRegion>07743 Jena</wicri:noRegion><wicri:noRegion>07743 Jena</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author></analytic><series><title level="j">Current Opinion in Virology</title><idno type="ISSN">1879-6257</idno><idno type="eISSN">1879-6265</idno><imprint><date when="2016">2016</date></imprint></series></biblStruct></sourceDesc></fileDesc><profileDesc><textClass><keywords scheme="KwdEn" xml:lang="en"><term>Aerosols</term><term>Air Microbiology</term><term>Bacterial Infections (transmission)</term><term>Disease Transmission, Infectious</term><term>Humans</term><term>Virus Diseases (transmission)</term></keywords><keywords scheme="KwdFr" xml:lang="fr"><term>Aérosols</term><term>Humains</term><term>Infections bactériennes (transmission)</term><term>Maladies virales (transmission)</term><term>Microbiologie de l'air</term><term>Transmission de maladie infectieuse</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" type="chemical" xml:lang="en"><term>Aerosols</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="transmission" xml:lang="en"><term>Bacterial Infections</term><term>Virus Diseases</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" xml:lang="en"><term>Air Microbiology</term><term>Disease Transmission, Infectious</term><term>Humans</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" xml:lang="fr"><term>Aérosols</term><term>Humains</term><term>Infections bactériennes</term><term>Maladies virales</term><term>Microbiologie de l'air</term><term>Transmission de maladie infectieuse</term></keywords><keywords scheme="mix" xml:lang="en"><term>Aerosols</term><term>Air Microbiology</term><term>Bacterial Infections</term><term>Disease Transmission</term><term>Humans</term><term>Infectious</term><term>Virus Diseases</term></keywords></textClass></profileDesc></teiHeader><front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en"><title>Highlights</title><p><list list-type="simple" id="lis0005"><list-item id="lsti0005"><label>•</label><p id="par0005">Chain of pathogen transmission between individual donor and recipient is modeled.</p></list-item><list-item id="lsti0010"><label>•</label><p id="par0010">Related pairs of efficient and inefficient ‘airborne’ pathogens are contrasted.</p></list-item><list-item id="lsti0015"><label>•</label><p id="par0015">Drivers operate on tissue, individual, community, country, and global levels.</p></list-item><list-item id="lsti0020"><label>•</label><p id="par0020">Pandemic risk is heightened by pathogen evolution and changes in host interaction.</p></list-item><list-item id="lsti0025"><label>•</label><p id="par0025">Ultimate drivers include socio-economic developments and climate changes.</p></list-item></list></p></div></front><back><div1 type="bibliography"><listBibl><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Linster, M" uniqKey="Linster M">M. Linster</name></author><author><name sortKey="Van Boheemen, S" uniqKey="Van Boheemen S">S. van Boheemen</name></author><author><name sortKey="De Graaf, M" uniqKey="De Graaf M">M. de Graaf</name></author><author><name sortKey="Schrauwen, E J A" uniqKey="Schrauwen E">E.J.A. Schrauwen</name></author><author><name sortKey="Lexmond, P" uniqKey="Lexmond P">P. Lexmond</name></author><author><name sortKey="M Nz, B" uniqKey="M Nz B">B. Mänz</name></author><author><name sortKey="Bestebroer, T M" uniqKey="Bestebroer T">T.M. Bestebroer</name></author><author><name sortKey="Baumann, J" uniqKey="Baumann J">J. Baumann</name></author><author><name sortKey="Van Riel, D" uniqKey="Van Riel D">D. van Riel</name></author><author><name sortKey="Rimmelzwaan, G F" uniqKey="Rimmelzwaan G">G.F. Rimmelzwaan</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Coker, R" uniqKey="Coker R">R. Coker</name></author><author><name sortKey="Rushton, J" uniqKey="Rushton J">J. 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Parkhill</name></author></analytic></biblStruct></listBibl></div1></back></TEI><double doi="10.1016/j.coviro.2016.11.006"><HAL><TEI><teiHeader><fileDesc><titleStmt><title xml:lang="en">Drivers of airborne human-to-human pathogen transmission</title><author><name sortKey="Herfst, Sander" sort="Herfst, Sander" uniqKey="Herfst S" first="Sander" last="Herfst">Sander Herfst</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><hal:affiliation type="laboratory" xml:id="struct-480493" status="INCOMING"> <orgName>Department of Viroscience [Rotterdam, The Netherlands]</orgName> <desc> <address> <country key="NL"></country> </address> </desc> <listRelation> <relation active="#struct-308157" type="direct"></relation> </listRelation> <tutelles><tutelle active="#struct-308157" type="direct"><org type="institution" xml:id="struct-308157" status="VALID"> <orgName>Erasmus University Medical Center [Rotterdam]</orgName> <orgName type="acronym">Erasmus MC</orgName> <desc> <address> <addrLine>Rotterdam</addrLine> <country key="NL"></country> </address> <ref type="url">http://www.erasmusmc.nl</ref> </desc> </org></tutelle></tutelles></hal:affiliation><country>Pays-Bas</country></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Bohringer, Michael" sort="Bohringer, Michael" uniqKey="Bohringer M" first="Michael" last="Böhringer">Michael Böhringer</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><hal:affiliation type="laboratory" xml:id="struct-131656" status="VALID"> <orgName>Institute of Bacterial Infections and Zoonoses</orgName> <orgName type="acronym">IBIZ</orgName> <desc> <address> <addrLine>Institut für bakterielle Infektionen und ZoonosenNaumburger Str. 96a;07743;Jena</addrLine> <country key="DE"></country> </address> </desc> <listRelation> <relation active="#struct-322700" type="direct"></relation> </listRelation> <tutelles><tutelle active="#struct-322700" type="direct"><org type="institution" xml:id="struct-322700" status="VALID"> <orgName>Friedrich-Loeffler-Institut</orgName> <orgName type="acronym">FLI</orgName> <desc> <address> <addrLine>Federal Research Institute for Animal HealthSüdufer 10D-17493 Greifswald - 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CS 30122, 69361 Lyon Cedex 07</addrLine> <country key="FR"></country> </address> <ref type="url">https://www.universite-lyon.fr/</ref> </desc> </org></tutelle><tutelle name="UMR5308" active="#struct-441569" type="indirect"><org type="institution" xml:id="struct-441569" status="VALID"> <idno type="ISNI">0000000122597504</idno> <idno type="IdRef">02636817X</idno> <orgName>Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique</orgName> <orgName type="acronym">CNRS</orgName> <date type="start">1939-10-19</date> <desc> <address> <country key="FR"></country> </address> <ref type="url">http://www.cnrs.fr/</ref> </desc> </org></tutelle></tutelles></hal:affiliation><country>France</country><placeName><settlement type="city">Lyon</settlement><region type="region" nuts="2">Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes</region><region type="old region" nuts="2">Rhône-Alpes</region></placeName><orgName type="university">Université Claude Bernard Lyon 1</orgName><orgName type="institution" wicri:auto="newGroup">Université de Lyon</orgName></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Lewis, Nicola S" sort="Lewis, Nicola S" uniqKey="Lewis N" first="Nicola S." last="Lewis">Nicola S. Lewis</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><hal:affiliation type="laboratory" xml:id="struct-57513" status="VALID"> <orgName>Department of Zoology [Cambridge]</orgName> <desc> <address> <addrLine>University of Cambridge, Downing Street, Cambridge CB2 3EJ, United Kingdom</addrLine> <country key="GB"></country> </address> </desc> <listRelation> <relation active="#struct-237843" type="direct"></relation> </listRelation> <tutelles><tutelle active="#struct-237843" type="direct"><org type="institution" xml:id="struct-237843" status="VALID"> <orgName>University of Cambridge [UK]</orgName> <orgName type="acronym">CAM</orgName> <desc> <address> <addrLine>The Old Schools, Trinity Lane, Cambridge CB2 1TN</addrLine> <country key="GB"></country> </address> <ref type="url">http://www.cam.ac.uk/</ref> </desc> </org></tutelle></tutelles></hal:affiliation><country>Royaume-Uni</country></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Mina, Michael J" sort="Mina, Michael J" uniqKey="Mina M" first="Michael J." last="Mina">Michael J. 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Swart</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><hal:affiliation type="laboratory" xml:id="struct-480493" status="INCOMING"> <orgName>Department of Viroscience [Rotterdam, The Netherlands]</orgName> <desc> <address> <country key="NL"></country> </address> </desc> <listRelation> <relation active="#struct-308157" type="direct"></relation> </listRelation> <tutelles><tutelle active="#struct-308157" type="direct"><org type="institution" xml:id="struct-308157" status="VALID"> <orgName>Erasmus University Medical Center [Rotterdam]</orgName> <orgName type="acronym">Erasmus MC</orgName> <desc> <address> <addrLine>Rotterdam</addrLine> <country key="NL"></country> </address> <ref type="url">http://www.erasmusmc.nl</ref> </desc> </org></tutelle></tutelles></hal:affiliation><country>Pays-Bas</country></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Menge, Christian" sort="Menge, Christian" uniqKey="Menge C" first="Christian" last="Menge">Christian Menge</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><hal:affiliation type="institution" xml:id="struct-322700" status="VALID"> <orgName>Friedrich-Loeffler-Institut</orgName> <orgName type="acronym">FLI</orgName> <desc> <address> <addrLine>Federal Research Institute for Animal HealthSüdufer 10D-17493 Greifswald - 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UMR</orgName> <orgName type="acronym">CIRI</orgName> <date type="start">2013-01-01</date> <desc> <address> <addrLine>21 avenue Tony Garnier 69365 Lyon Cedex 07</addrLine> <country key="FR"></country> </address> <ref type="url">http://ciri.inserm.fr/</ref> </desc> <listRelation> <relation name="U1111" active="#struct-303623" type="direct"></relation> <relation active="#struct-6818" type="direct"></relation> <relation active="#struct-194495" type="direct"></relation> <relation active="#struct-301088" type="indirect"></relation> <relation name="UMR5308" active="#struct-441569" type="direct"></relation> </listRelation> </org></tutelle><tutelle name="U1111" active="#struct-303623" type="indirect"><org type="institution" xml:id="struct-303623" status="VALID"> <idno type="IdRef">026388278</idno> <orgName>Institut National de la Santé et de la Recherche Médicale</orgName> <orgName type="acronym">INSERM</orgName> <desc> <address> <addrLine>101, rue de Tolbiac, 75013 Paris </addrLine> <country key="FR"></country> </address> <ref type="url">http://www.inserm.fr</ref> </desc> </org></tutelle><tutelle active="#struct-6818" type="indirect"><org type="institution" xml:id="struct-6818" status="VALID"> <idno type="IdRef">149154992</idno> <orgName>École normale supérieure - Lyon</orgName> <orgName type="acronym">ENS Lyon</orgName> <desc> <address> <addrLine>15 parvis René Descartes - BP 7000 - 69342 Lyon Cedex 07</addrLine> <country key="FR"></country> </address> <ref type="url">http://www.ens-lyon.eu/</ref> </desc> </org></tutelle><tutelle active="#struct-194495" type="indirect"><org type="institution" xml:id="struct-194495" status="VALID"> <idno type="IdRef">026402823</idno> <idno type="ISNI">0000000121686185</idno> <orgName>Université Claude Bernard Lyon 1</orgName> <orgName type="acronym">UCBL</orgName> <desc> <address> <addrLine>43, boulevard du 11 novembre 1918, 69622 Villeurbanne cedex</addrLine> <country key="FR"></country> </address> <ref type="url">http://www.univ-lyon1.fr/</ref> </desc> <listRelation> <relation active="#struct-301088" type="direct"></relation> </listRelation> </org></tutelle><tutelle active="#struct-301088" type="indirect"><org type="regroupinstitution" xml:id="struct-301088" status="VALID"> <orgName>Université de Lyon</orgName> <desc> <address> <addrLine>92 rue Pasteur - CS 30122, 69361 Lyon Cedex 07</addrLine> <country key="FR"></country> </address> <ref type="url">https://www.universite-lyon.fr/</ref> </desc> </org></tutelle><tutelle name="UMR5308" active="#struct-441569" type="indirect"><org type="institution" xml:id="struct-441569" status="VALID"> <idno type="ISNI">0000000122597504</idno> <idno type="IdRef">02636817X</idno> <orgName>Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique</orgName> <orgName type="acronym">CNRS</orgName> <date type="start">1939-10-19</date> <desc> <address> <country key="FR"></country> </address> <ref type="url">http://www.cnrs.fr/</ref> </desc> </org></tutelle></tutelles></hal:affiliation><country>France</country><placeName><settlement type="city">Lyon</settlement><region type="region" nuts="2">Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes</region><region type="old region" nuts="2">Rhône-Alpes</region></placeName><orgName type="university">Université Claude Bernard Lyon 1</orgName><orgName type="institution" wicri:auto="newGroup">Université de Lyon</orgName></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Lewis, Nicola S" sort="Lewis, Nicola S" uniqKey="Lewis N" first="Nicola S." last="Lewis">Nicola S. Lewis</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><hal:affiliation type="laboratory" xml:id="struct-57513" status="VALID"> <orgName>Department of Zoology [Cambridge]</orgName> <desc> <address> <addrLine>University of Cambridge, Downing Street, Cambridge CB2 3EJ, United Kingdom</addrLine> <country key="GB"></country> </address> </desc> <listRelation> <relation active="#struct-237843" type="direct"></relation> </listRelation> <tutelles><tutelle active="#struct-237843" type="direct"><org type="institution" xml:id="struct-237843" status="VALID"> <orgName>University of Cambridge [UK]</orgName> <orgName type="acronym">CAM</orgName> <desc> <address> <addrLine>The Old Schools, Trinity Lane, Cambridge CB2 1TN</addrLine> <country key="GB"></country> </address> <ref type="url">http://www.cam.ac.uk/</ref> </desc> </org></tutelle></tutelles></hal:affiliation><country>Royaume-Uni</country></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Mina, Michael J" sort="Mina, Michael J" uniqKey="Mina M" first="Michael J." last="Mina">Michael J. Mina</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><hal:affiliation type="laboratory" xml:id="struct-18894" status="VALID"> <orgName>Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology [Princeton]</orgName> <desc> <address> <addrLine>106A Guyot Hall, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08544-2016 U.S.A.</addrLine> <country key="US"></country> </address> <ref type="url">http://www.princeton.edu/eeb/</ref> </desc> <listRelation> <relation active="#struct-46584" type="direct"></relation> </listRelation> <tutelles><tutelle active="#struct-46584" type="direct"><org type="institution" xml:id="struct-46584" status="VALID"> <orgName>Princeton University </orgName> <desc> <address> <addrLine>Princeton, NJ 08544 USA</addrLine> <country key="US"></country> </address> <ref type="url">http://www.princeton.edu/main/</ref> </desc> </org></tutelle></tutelles></hal:affiliation><country>États-Unis</country></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Russell, Charles J" sort="Russell, Charles J" uniqKey="Russell C" first="Charles J." last="Russell">Charles J. Russell</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><hal:affiliation type="institution" xml:id="struct-489322" status="VALID"> <orgName>St Jude Children's Research Hospital</orgName> <desc> <address> <addrLine>Memphis, TN 38105-3678</addrLine> <country key="US"></country> </address> <ref type="url">https://www.stjude.org/</ref> </desc> </hal:affiliation><country>États-Unis</country></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Steel, John" sort="Steel, John" uniqKey="Steel J" first="John" last="Steel">John Steel</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><hal:affiliation type="laboratory" xml:id="struct-142636" status="VALID"> <orgName>Emory University School of Medicine</orgName> <desc> <address> <country key="US"></country> </address> <ref type="url">https://med.emory.edu/education/programs/md/</ref> </desc> <listRelation> <relation active="#struct-301506" type="direct"></relation> </listRelation> <tutelles><tutelle active="#struct-301506" type="direct"><org type="institution" xml:id="struct-301506" status="VALID"> <orgName>Emory University [Atlanta, GA]</orgName> <desc> <address> <addrLine>201 Dowman Dr, Atlanta, GA 30322</addrLine> <country key="US"></country> </address> <ref type="url">http://www.emory.edu</ref> </desc> </org></tutelle></tutelles></hal:affiliation><country>États-Unis</country></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Swart, Rik L" sort="Swart, Rik L" uniqKey="Swart R" first="Rik L." last="Swart">Rik L. Swart</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><hal:affiliation type="laboratory" xml:id="struct-480493" status="INCOMING"> <orgName>Department of Viroscience [Rotterdam, The Netherlands]</orgName> <desc> <address> <country key="NL"></country> </address> </desc> <listRelation> <relation active="#struct-308157" type="direct"></relation> </listRelation> <tutelles><tutelle active="#struct-308157" type="direct"><org type="institution" xml:id="struct-308157" status="VALID"> <orgName>Erasmus University Medical Center [Rotterdam]</orgName> <orgName type="acronym">Erasmus MC</orgName> <desc> <address> <addrLine>Rotterdam</addrLine> <country key="NL"></country> </address> <ref type="url">http://www.erasmusmc.nl</ref> </desc> </org></tutelle></tutelles></hal:affiliation><country>Pays-Bas</country></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Menge, Christian" sort="Menge, Christian" uniqKey="Menge C" first="Christian" last="Menge">Christian Menge</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><hal:affiliation type="institution" xml:id="struct-322700" status="VALID"> <orgName>Friedrich-Loeffler-Institut</orgName> <orgName type="acronym">FLI</orgName> <desc> <address> <addrLine>Federal Research Institute for Animal HealthSüdufer 10D-17493 Greifswald - Insel Riems</addrLine> <country key="DE"></country> </address> <ref type="url">https://www.fli.de</ref> </desc> </hal:affiliation><country>Allemagne</country></affiliation></author></analytic><idno type="DOI">10.1016/j.coviro.2016.11.006</idno><series><title level="j">Current Opinion in Virology</title><idno type="ISSN">1879-6257</idno><imprint><date type="datePub">2017</date></imprint></series></biblStruct></sourceDesc></fileDesc><profileDesc><textClass><keywords scheme="mix" xml:lang="en"><term>Aerosols</term><term>Air Microbiology</term><term>Bacterial Infections</term><term>Disease Transmission</term><term>Humans</term><term>Infectious</term><term>Virus Diseases</term></keywords></textClass></profileDesc></teiHeader><front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en"> <p>Airborne pathogens - either transmitted via aerosol or droplets - include a wide variety of highly infectious and dangerous microbes such as variola virus, measles virus, influenza A viruses, Mycobacterium tuberculosis, Streptococcus pneumoniae, and Bordetella pertussis. Emerging zoonotic pathogens, for example, MERS coronavirus, avian influenza viruses, Coxiella, and Francisella, would have pandemic potential were they to acquire efficient human-to-human transmissibility. Here, we synthesize insights from microbiological, medical, social, and economic sciences to provide known mechanisms of aerosolized transmissibility and identify knowledge gaps that limit emergency preparedness plans. In particular, we propose a framework of drivers facilitating human-to-human transmission with the airspace between individuals as an intermediate stage. The model is expected to enhance identification and risk assessment of novel pathogens.</p> </div></front></TEI></HAL><PMC><TEI><teiHeader><fileDesc><titleStmt><title xml:lang="en">Drivers of airborne human-to-human pathogen transmission</title><author><name sortKey="Herfst, Sander" sort="Herfst, Sander" uniqKey="Herfst S" first="Sander" last="Herfst">Sander Herfst</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff0005">Department of Viroscience, Postgraduate School of Molecular Medicine, Erasmus MC, Wytemaweg 80, 3015 CN Rotterdam, The Netherlands</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">Pays-Bas</country><wicri:regionArea>Department of Viroscience, Postgraduate School of Molecular Medicine, Erasmus MC, Wytemaweg 80, 3015 CN Rotterdam</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>3015 CN Rotterdam</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Bohringer, Michael" sort="Bohringer, Michael" uniqKey="Bohringer M" first="Michael" last="Böhringer">Michael Böhringer</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff0010">Friedrich-Loeffler-Institut, Institute of Bacterial Infections and Zoonoses, Naumburger Str. 96a, 07743 Jena, Germany</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">Allemagne</country><wicri:regionArea>Friedrich-Loeffler-Institut, Institute of Bacterial Infections and Zoonoses, Naumburger Str. 96a, 07743 Jena</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>07743 Jena</wicri:noRegion><wicri:noRegion>07743 Jena</wicri:noRegion><wicri:noRegion>07743 Jena</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Karo, Basel" sort="Karo, Basel" uniqKey="Karo B" first="Basel" last="Karo">Basel Karo</name><affiliation wicri:level="3"><nlm:aff id="aff3">Robert Koch Institut, Department for Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Seestr. 10, 13353 Berlin, Germany</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">Allemagne</country><wicri:regionArea>Robert Koch Institut, Department for Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Seestr. 10, 13353 Berlin</wicri:regionArea><placeName><region type="land" nuts="3">Berlin</region><settlement type="city">Berlin</settlement></placeName></affiliation><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff0015">PhD Programme “Epidemiology”, Braunschweig-Hannover, Germany</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">Allemagne</country><wicri:regionArea>PhD Programme “Epidemiology”, Braunschweig-Hannover</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Braunschweig-Hannover</wicri:noRegion><wicri:noRegion>Braunschweig-Hannover</wicri:noRegion><wicri:noRegion>Braunschweig-Hannover</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Lawrence, Philip" sort="Lawrence, Philip" uniqKey="Lawrence P" first="Philip" last="Lawrence">Philip Lawrence</name><affiliation wicri:level="3"><nlm:aff id="aff0020">Université de Lyon, UMRS 449, Laboratoire de Biologie Générale, Université Catholique de Lyon – EPHE, Lyon 69288, France</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">France</country><wicri:regionArea>Université de Lyon, UMRS 449, Laboratoire de Biologie Générale, Université Catholique de Lyon – EPHE, Lyon 69288</wicri:regionArea><placeName><region type="region" nuts="2">Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes</region><region type="old region" nuts="2">Rhône-Alpes</region></placeName></affiliation><affiliation wicri:level="3"><nlm:aff id="aff0025">Molecular Basis of Viral Pathogenicity, International Centre for Research in Infectiology (CIRI), INSERM U1111 – CNRS UMR5308, Université Lyon 1, Ecole Normale Supérieure de Lyon, Lyon 69007, France</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">France</country><wicri:regionArea>Molecular Basis of Viral Pathogenicity, International Centre for Research in Infectiology (CIRI), INSERM U1111 – CNRS UMR5308, Université Lyon 1, Ecole Normale Supérieure de Lyon, Lyon 69007</wicri:regionArea><placeName><region type="region" nuts="2">Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes</region><region type="old region" nuts="2">Rhône-Alpes</region></placeName></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Lewis, Nicola S" sort="Lewis, Nicola S" uniqKey="Lewis N" first="Nicola S" last="Lewis">Nicola S. Lewis</name><affiliation wicri:level="4"><nlm:aff id="aff0030">Centre for Pathogen Evolution, Department of Zoology, University of Cambridge, Downing Street, Cambridge, United Kingdom</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">Royaume-Uni</country><wicri:regionArea>Centre for Pathogen Evolution, Department of Zoology, University of Cambridge, Downing Street, Cambridge</wicri:regionArea><orgName type="university">Université de Cambridge</orgName><placeName><settlement type="city">Cambridge</settlement><region type="country">Angleterre</region><region type="région" nuts="1">Angleterre de l'Est</region></placeName></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Mina, Michael J" sort="Mina, Michael J" uniqKey="Mina M" first="Michael J" last="Mina">Michael J. Mina</name><affiliation wicri:level="4"><nlm:aff id="aff0035">Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08544, USA</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country><wicri:regionArea>Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08544</wicri:regionArea><placeName><region type="state">New Jersey</region><settlement type="city">Princeton (New Jersey)</settlement></placeName><orgName type="university">Université de Princeton</orgName></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Russell, Charles J" sort="Russell, Charles J" uniqKey="Russell C" first="Charles J" last="Russell">Charles J. Russell</name><affiliation wicri:level="2"><nlm:aff id="aff0040">Department of Infectious Diseases, St. Jude Children's Research Hospital, Memphis, TN 38105, USA</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country><wicri:regionArea>Department of Infectious Diseases, St. Jude Children's Research Hospital, Memphis, TN 38105</wicri:regionArea><placeName><region type="state">Tennessee</region></placeName></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Steel, John" sort="Steel, John" uniqKey="Steel J" first="John" last="Steel">John Steel</name><affiliation wicri:level="2"><nlm:aff id="aff0045">Department of Microbiology and Immunology, Emory University School of Medicine, Atlanta, GA 30322, USA</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country><wicri:regionArea>Department of Microbiology and Immunology, Emory University School of Medicine, Atlanta, GA 30322</wicri:regionArea><placeName><region type="state">Géorgie (États-Unis)</region></placeName></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="De Swart, Rik L" sort="De Swart, Rik L" uniqKey="De Swart R" first="Rik L" last="De Swart">Rik L. De Swart</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff0005">Department of Viroscience, Postgraduate School of Molecular Medicine, Erasmus MC, Wytemaweg 80, 3015 CN Rotterdam, The Netherlands</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">Pays-Bas</country><wicri:regionArea>Department of Viroscience, Postgraduate School of Molecular Medicine, Erasmus MC, Wytemaweg 80, 3015 CN Rotterdam</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>3015 CN Rotterdam</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Menge, Christian" sort="Menge, Christian" uniqKey="Menge C" first="Christian" last="Menge">Christian Menge</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff0050">Friedrich-Loeffler-Institut, Institute of Molecular Pathogenesis, Naumburger Str. 96a, 07743 Jena, Germany</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">Allemagne</country><wicri:regionArea>Friedrich-Loeffler-Institut, Institute of Molecular Pathogenesis, Naumburger Str. 96a, 07743 Jena</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>07743 Jena</wicri:noRegion><wicri:noRegion>07743 Jena</wicri:noRegion><wicri:noRegion>07743 Jena</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author></titleStmt><publicationStmt><idno type="wicri:source">PMC</idno><idno type="pmid">27918958</idno><idno type="pmc">7102691</idno><idno type="url">http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7102691</idno><idno type="RBID">PMC:7102691</idno><idno type="doi">10.1016/j.coviro.2016.11.006</idno><date when="2016">2016</date><idno type="wicri:Area/Pmc/Corpus">001308</idno><idno type="wicri:explorRef" wicri:stream="Pmc" wicri:step="Corpus" wicri:corpus="PMC">001308</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/Pmc/Curation">001308</idno><idno type="wicri:explorRef" wicri:stream="Pmc" wicri:step="Curation">001308</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/Pmc/Checkpoint">000B93</idno><idno type="wicri:explorRef" wicri:stream="Pmc" wicri:step="Checkpoint">000B93</idno><idno type="wicri:source">PubMed</idno><idno type="RBID">pubmed:27918958</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/PubMed/Corpus">000E64</idno><idno type="wicri:explorRef" wicri:stream="PubMed" wicri:step="Corpus" wicri:corpus="PubMed">000E64</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/PubMed/Curation">000E64</idno><idno type="wicri:explorRef" wicri:stream="PubMed" wicri:step="Curation">000E64</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/PubMed/Checkpoint">000D34</idno><idno type="wicri:explorRef" wicri:stream="Checkpoint" wicri:step="PubMed">000D34</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/Ncbi/Merge">001870</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/Ncbi/Curation">001870</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/Ncbi/Checkpoint">001870</idno><idno type="wicri:doubleKey">1879-6257:2016:Herfst S:drivers:of:airborne</idno></publicationStmt><sourceDesc><biblStruct><analytic><title xml:lang="en" level="a" type="main">Drivers of airborne human-to-human pathogen transmission</title><author><name sortKey="Herfst, Sander" sort="Herfst, Sander" uniqKey="Herfst S" first="Sander" last="Herfst">Sander Herfst</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff0005">Department of Viroscience, Postgraduate School of Molecular Medicine, Erasmus MC, Wytemaweg 80, 3015 CN Rotterdam, The Netherlands</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">Pays-Bas</country><wicri:regionArea>Department of Viroscience, Postgraduate School of Molecular Medicine, Erasmus MC, Wytemaweg 80, 3015 CN Rotterdam</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>3015 CN Rotterdam</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Bohringer, Michael" sort="Bohringer, Michael" uniqKey="Bohringer M" first="Michael" last="Böhringer">Michael Böhringer</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff0010">Friedrich-Loeffler-Institut, Institute of Bacterial Infections and Zoonoses, Naumburger Str. 96a, 07743 Jena, Germany</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">Allemagne</country><wicri:regionArea>Friedrich-Loeffler-Institut, Institute of Bacterial Infections and Zoonoses, Naumburger Str. 96a, 07743 Jena</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>07743 Jena</wicri:noRegion><wicri:noRegion>07743 Jena</wicri:noRegion><wicri:noRegion>07743 Jena</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Karo, Basel" sort="Karo, Basel" uniqKey="Karo B" first="Basel" last="Karo">Basel Karo</name><affiliation wicri:level="3"><nlm:aff id="aff3">Robert Koch Institut, Department for Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Seestr. 10, 13353 Berlin, Germany</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">Allemagne</country><wicri:regionArea>Robert Koch Institut, Department for Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Seestr. 10, 13353 Berlin</wicri:regionArea><placeName><region type="land" nuts="3">Berlin</region><settlement type="city">Berlin</settlement></placeName></affiliation><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff0015">PhD Programme “Epidemiology”, Braunschweig-Hannover, Germany</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">Allemagne</country><wicri:regionArea>PhD Programme “Epidemiology”, Braunschweig-Hannover</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Braunschweig-Hannover</wicri:noRegion><wicri:noRegion>Braunschweig-Hannover</wicri:noRegion><wicri:noRegion>Braunschweig-Hannover</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Lawrence, Philip" sort="Lawrence, Philip" uniqKey="Lawrence P" first="Philip" last="Lawrence">Philip Lawrence</name><affiliation wicri:level="3"><nlm:aff id="aff0020">Université de Lyon, UMRS 449, Laboratoire de Biologie Générale, Université Catholique de Lyon – EPHE, Lyon 69288, France</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">France</country><wicri:regionArea>Université de Lyon, UMRS 449, Laboratoire de Biologie Générale, Université Catholique de Lyon – EPHE, Lyon 69288</wicri:regionArea><placeName><region type="region" nuts="2">Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes</region><region type="old region" nuts="2">Rhône-Alpes</region></placeName></affiliation><affiliation wicri:level="3"><nlm:aff id="aff0025">Molecular Basis of Viral Pathogenicity, International Centre for Research in Infectiology (CIRI), INSERM U1111 – CNRS UMR5308, Université Lyon 1, Ecole Normale Supérieure de Lyon, Lyon 69007, France</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">France</country><wicri:regionArea>Molecular Basis of Viral Pathogenicity, International Centre for Research in Infectiology (CIRI), INSERM U1111 – CNRS UMR5308, Université Lyon 1, Ecole Normale Supérieure de Lyon, Lyon 69007</wicri:regionArea><placeName><region type="region" nuts="2">Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes</region><region type="old region" nuts="2">Rhône-Alpes</region></placeName></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Lewis, Nicola S" sort="Lewis, Nicola S" uniqKey="Lewis N" first="Nicola S" last="Lewis">Nicola S. Lewis</name><affiliation wicri:level="4"><nlm:aff id="aff0030">Centre for Pathogen Evolution, Department of Zoology, University of Cambridge, Downing Street, Cambridge, United Kingdom</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">Royaume-Uni</country><wicri:regionArea>Centre for Pathogen Evolution, Department of Zoology, University of Cambridge, Downing Street, Cambridge</wicri:regionArea><orgName type="university">Université de Cambridge</orgName><placeName><settlement type="city">Cambridge</settlement><region type="country">Angleterre</region><region type="région" nuts="1">Angleterre de l'Est</region></placeName></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Mina, Michael J" sort="Mina, Michael J" uniqKey="Mina M" first="Michael J" last="Mina">Michael J. Mina</name><affiliation wicri:level="4"><nlm:aff id="aff0035">Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08544, USA</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country><wicri:regionArea>Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08544</wicri:regionArea><placeName><region type="state">New Jersey</region><settlement type="city">Princeton (New Jersey)</settlement></placeName><orgName type="university">Université de Princeton</orgName></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Russell, Charles J" sort="Russell, Charles J" uniqKey="Russell C" first="Charles J" last="Russell">Charles J. Russell</name><affiliation wicri:level="2"><nlm:aff id="aff0040">Department of Infectious Diseases, St. Jude Children's Research Hospital, Memphis, TN 38105, USA</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country><wicri:regionArea>Department of Infectious Diseases, St. Jude Children's Research Hospital, Memphis, TN 38105</wicri:regionArea><placeName><region type="state">Tennessee</region></placeName></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Steel, John" sort="Steel, John" uniqKey="Steel J" first="John" last="Steel">John Steel</name><affiliation wicri:level="2"><nlm:aff id="aff0045">Department of Microbiology and Immunology, Emory University School of Medicine, Atlanta, GA 30322, USA</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country><wicri:regionArea>Department of Microbiology and Immunology, Emory University School of Medicine, Atlanta, GA 30322</wicri:regionArea><placeName><region type="state">Géorgie (États-Unis)</region></placeName></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="De Swart, Rik L" sort="De Swart, Rik L" uniqKey="De Swart R" first="Rik L" last="De Swart">Rik L. De Swart</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff0005">Department of Viroscience, Postgraduate School of Molecular Medicine, Erasmus MC, Wytemaweg 80, 3015 CN Rotterdam, The Netherlands</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">Pays-Bas</country><wicri:regionArea>Department of Viroscience, Postgraduate School of Molecular Medicine, Erasmus MC, Wytemaweg 80, 3015 CN Rotterdam</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>3015 CN Rotterdam</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Menge, Christian" sort="Menge, Christian" uniqKey="Menge C" first="Christian" last="Menge">Christian Menge</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff0050">Friedrich-Loeffler-Institut, Institute of Molecular Pathogenesis, Naumburger Str. 96a, 07743 Jena, Germany</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">Allemagne</country><wicri:regionArea>Friedrich-Loeffler-Institut, Institute of Molecular Pathogenesis, Naumburger Str. 96a, 07743 Jena</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>07743 Jena</wicri:noRegion><wicri:noRegion>07743 Jena</wicri:noRegion><wicri:noRegion>07743 Jena</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author></analytic><series><title level="j">Current Opinion in Virology</title><idno type="ISSN">1879-6257</idno><idno type="eISSN">1879-6265</idno><imprint><date when="2016">2016</date></imprint></series></biblStruct></sourceDesc></fileDesc><profileDesc><textClass><keywords scheme="KwdEn" xml:lang="en"><term>Aerosols</term><term>Air Microbiology</term><term>Bacterial Infections (transmission)</term><term>Disease Transmission, Infectious</term><term>Humans</term><term>Virus Diseases (transmission)</term></keywords><keywords scheme="KwdFr" xml:lang="fr"><term>Aérosols</term><term>Humains</term><term>Infections bactériennes (transmission)</term><term>Maladies virales (transmission)</term><term>Microbiologie de l'air</term><term>Transmission de maladie infectieuse</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" type="chemical" xml:lang="en"><term>Aerosols</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="transmission" xml:lang="en"><term>Bacterial Infections</term><term>Virus Diseases</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" xml:lang="en"><term>Air Microbiology</term><term>Disease Transmission, Infectious</term><term>Humans</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" xml:lang="fr"><term>Aérosols</term><term>Humains</term><term>Infections bactériennes</term><term>Maladies virales</term><term>Microbiologie de l'air</term><term>Transmission de maladie infectieuse</term></keywords></textClass></profileDesc></teiHeader><front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en"><title>Highlights</title><p><list list-type="simple" id="lis0005"><list-item id="lsti0005"><label>•</label><p id="par0005">Chain of pathogen transmission between individual donor and recipient is modeled.</p></list-item><list-item id="lsti0010"><label>•</label><p id="par0010">Related pairs of efficient and inefficient ‘airborne’ pathogens are contrasted.</p></list-item><list-item id="lsti0015"><label>•</label><p id="par0015">Drivers operate on tissue, individual, community, country, and global levels.</p></list-item><list-item id="lsti0020"><label>•</label><p id="par0020">Pandemic risk is heightened by pathogen evolution and changes in host interaction.</p></list-item><list-item id="lsti0025"><label>•</label><p id="par0025">Ultimate drivers include socio-economic developments and climate changes.</p></list-item></list></p></div></front><back><div1 type="bibliography"><listBibl><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Linster, M" uniqKey="Linster M">M. 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