Estimation of basic reproduction number of the Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) during the outbreak in South Korea, 2015
Identifieur interne : 000D97 ( Main/Exploration ); précédent : 000D96; suivant : 000D98Estimation of basic reproduction number of the Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) during the outbreak in South Korea, 2015
Auteurs : Hyuk-Jun ChangSource :
- BioMedical Engineering OnLine [ 1475-925X ] ; 2017.
Descripteurs français
- KwdFr :
- MESH :
- physiologie : Coronavirus du syndrome respiratoire du Moyen-Orient.
- épidémiologie : Infections à coronavirus, République de Corée.
- Flambées de maladies, Humains, Modèles statistiques, Nombre de reproduction de base.
English descriptors
- KwdEn :
- MESH :
- epidemiology : Coronavirus Infections, Republic of Korea.
- physiology : Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus.
- Basic Reproduction Number, Disease Outbreaks, Humans, Models, Statistical.
Abstract
In South Korea, an outbreak of Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS) occurred in 2015. It was the second largest MERS outbreak. As a result of the outbreak in South Korea, 186 infections were reported, and 36 patients died. At least 16,693 people were isolated with suspicious symptoms. This paper estimates the basic reproduction number of the MERS coronavirus (CoV), using data on the spread of MERS in South Korea.
The basic reproduction number of an epidemic is defined as the average number of secondary cases that an infected subject produces over its infectious period in a susceptible and uninfected population. To estimate the basic reproduction number of the MERS-CoV, we employ data from the 2015 South Korea MERS outbreak and the susceptible-infected-removed (SIR) model, a mathematical model that uses a set of ordinary differential equations (ODEs).
We fit the model to the epidemic data of the South Korea outbreak minimizing the sum of the squared errors to identify model parameters. Also we derive the basic reproductive number as the terms of the parameters of the SIR model. Then we determine the basic reproduction number of the MERS-CoV in South Korea in 2015 as 8.0977. It is worth comparing with the basic reproductive number of the 2014 Ebola outbreak in West Africa including Guinea, Sierra Leone, and Liberia, which had values of 1.5–2.5.
There was no intervention to control the infection in the early phase of the outbreak, thus the data used here provide the best conditions to evaluate the epidemic characteristics of MERS, such as the basic reproduction number. An evaluation of basic reproduction number using epidemic data could be problematic if there are stochastic fluctuations in the early phase of the outbreak, or if the report is not accurate and there is bias in the data. Such problems are not relevant to this study because the data used here were precisely reported and verified by Korea Hospital Association.
Url:
DOI: 10.1186/s12938-017-0370-7
PubMed: 28610609
PubMed Central: 5470331
Affiliations:
Links toward previous steps (curation, corpus...)
- to stream Pmc, to step Corpus: 000340
- to stream Pmc, to step Curation: 000340
- to stream Pmc, to step Checkpoint: 000862
- to stream PubMed, to step Corpus: 000C63
- to stream PubMed, to step Curation: 000C63
- to stream PubMed, to step Checkpoint: 000D13
- to stream Ncbi, to step Merge: 001A71
- to stream Ncbi, to step Curation: 001A71
- to stream Ncbi, to step Checkpoint: 001A71
- to stream Main, to step Merge: 000E00
- to stream Main, to step Curation: 000D97
Le document en format XML
<record><TEI><teiHeader><fileDesc><titleStmt><title xml:lang="en">Estimation of basic reproduction number of the Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) during the outbreak in South Korea, 2015</title>
<author><name sortKey="Chang, Hyuk Jun" sort="Chang, Hyuk Jun" uniqKey="Chang H" first="Hyuk-Jun" last="Chang">Hyuk-Jun Chang</name>
<affiliation><nlm:aff id="Aff1"></nlm:aff>
</affiliation>
</author>
</titleStmt>
<publicationStmt><idno type="wicri:source">PMC</idno>
<idno type="pmid">28610609</idno>
<idno type="pmc">5470331</idno>
<idno type="url">http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5470331</idno>
<idno type="RBID">PMC:5470331</idno>
<idno type="doi">10.1186/s12938-017-0370-7</idno>
<date when="2017">2017</date>
<idno type="wicri:Area/Pmc/Corpus">000340</idno>
<idno type="wicri:explorRef" wicri:stream="Pmc" wicri:step="Corpus" wicri:corpus="PMC">000340</idno>
<idno type="wicri:Area/Pmc/Curation">000340</idno>
<idno type="wicri:explorRef" wicri:stream="Pmc" wicri:step="Curation">000340</idno>
<idno type="wicri:Area/Pmc/Checkpoint">000862</idno>
<idno type="wicri:explorRef" wicri:stream="Pmc" wicri:step="Checkpoint">000862</idno>
<idno type="wicri:source">PubMed</idno>
<idno type="RBID">pubmed:28610609</idno>
<idno type="wicri:Area/PubMed/Corpus">000C63</idno>
<idno type="wicri:explorRef" wicri:stream="PubMed" wicri:step="Corpus" wicri:corpus="PubMed">000C63</idno>
<idno type="wicri:Area/PubMed/Curation">000C63</idno>
<idno type="wicri:explorRef" wicri:stream="PubMed" wicri:step="Curation">000C63</idno>
<idno type="wicri:Area/PubMed/Checkpoint">000D13</idno>
<idno type="wicri:explorRef" wicri:stream="Checkpoint" wicri:step="PubMed">000D13</idno>
<idno type="wicri:Area/Ncbi/Merge">001A71</idno>
<idno type="wicri:Area/Ncbi/Curation">001A71</idno>
<idno type="wicri:Area/Ncbi/Checkpoint">001A71</idno>
<idno type="wicri:Area/Main/Merge">000E00</idno>
<idno type="wicri:Area/Main/Curation">000D97</idno>
<idno type="wicri:Area/Main/Exploration">000D97</idno>
</publicationStmt>
<sourceDesc><biblStruct><analytic><title xml:lang="en" level="a" type="main">Estimation of basic reproduction number of the Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) during the outbreak in South Korea, 2015</title>
<author><name sortKey="Chang, Hyuk Jun" sort="Chang, Hyuk Jun" uniqKey="Chang H" first="Hyuk-Jun" last="Chang">Hyuk-Jun Chang</name>
<affiliation><nlm:aff id="Aff1"></nlm:aff>
</affiliation>
</author>
</analytic>
<series><title level="j">BioMedical Engineering OnLine</title>
<idno type="eISSN">1475-925X</idno>
<imprint><date when="2017">2017</date>
</imprint>
</series>
</biblStruct>
</sourceDesc>
</fileDesc>
<profileDesc><textClass><keywords scheme="KwdEn" xml:lang="en"><term>Basic Reproduction Number</term>
<term>Coronavirus Infections (epidemiology)</term>
<term>Disease Outbreaks</term>
<term>Humans</term>
<term>Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus (physiology)</term>
<term>Models, Statistical</term>
<term>Republic of Korea (epidemiology)</term>
</keywords>
<keywords scheme="KwdFr" xml:lang="fr"><term>Coronavirus du syndrome respiratoire du Moyen-Orient (physiologie)</term>
<term>Flambées de maladies</term>
<term>Humains</term>
<term>Infections à coronavirus (épidémiologie)</term>
<term>Modèles statistiques</term>
<term>Nombre de reproduction de base</term>
<term>République de Corée (épidémiologie)</term>
</keywords>
<keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="epidemiology" xml:lang="en"><term>Coronavirus Infections</term>
<term>Republic of Korea</term>
</keywords>
<keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="physiologie" xml:lang="fr"><term>Coronavirus du syndrome respiratoire du Moyen-Orient</term>
</keywords>
<keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="physiology" xml:lang="en"><term>Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus</term>
</keywords>
<keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="épidémiologie" xml:lang="fr"><term>Infections à coronavirus</term>
<term>République de Corée</term>
</keywords>
<keywords scheme="MESH" xml:lang="en"><term>Basic Reproduction Number</term>
<term>Disease Outbreaks</term>
<term>Humans</term>
<term>Models, Statistical</term>
</keywords>
<keywords scheme="MESH" xml:lang="fr"><term>Flambées de maladies</term>
<term>Humains</term>
<term>Modèles statistiques</term>
<term>Nombre de reproduction de base</term>
</keywords>
</textClass>
</profileDesc>
</teiHeader>
<front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en"><sec><title>Background</title>
<p>In South Korea, an outbreak of Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS) occurred in 2015. It was the second largest MERS outbreak. As a result of the outbreak in South Korea, 186 infections were reported, and 36 patients died. At least 16,693 people were isolated with suspicious symptoms. This paper estimates the basic reproduction number of the MERS coronavirus (CoV), using data on the spread of MERS in South Korea.</p>
</sec>
<sec><title>Methods</title>
<p>The basic reproduction number of an epidemic is defined as the average number of secondary cases that an infected subject produces over its infectious period in a susceptible and uninfected population. To estimate the basic reproduction number of the MERS-CoV, we employ data from the 2015 South Korea MERS outbreak and the susceptible-infected-removed (SIR) model, a mathematical model that uses a set of ordinary differential equations (ODEs).</p>
</sec>
<sec><title>Results</title>
<p>We fit the model to the epidemic data of the South Korea outbreak minimizing the sum of the squared errors to identify model parameters. Also we derive the basic reproductive number as the terms of the parameters of the SIR model. Then we determine the basic reproduction number of the MERS-CoV in South Korea in 2015 as 8.0977. It is worth comparing with the basic reproductive number of the 2014 Ebola outbreak in West Africa including Guinea, Sierra Leone, and Liberia, which had values of 1.5–2.5.</p>
</sec>
<sec><title>Conclusions</title>
<p>There was no intervention to control the infection in the early phase of the outbreak, thus the data used here provide the best conditions to evaluate the epidemic characteristics of MERS, such as the basic reproduction number. An evaluation of basic reproduction number using epidemic data could be problematic if there are stochastic fluctuations in the early phase of the outbreak, or if the report is not accurate and there is bias in the data. Such problems are not relevant to this study because the data used here were precisely reported and verified by Korea Hospital Association.</p>
</sec>
</div>
</front>
<back><div1 type="bibliography"><listBibl><biblStruct></biblStruct>
<biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Su, S" uniqKey="Su S">S Su</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Wong, G" uniqKey="Wong G">G Wong</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Liu, Y" uniqKey="Liu Y">Y Liu</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Gao, Gf" uniqKey="Gao G">GF Gao</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Li, S" uniqKey="Li S">S Li</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Bi, Y" uniqKey="Bi Y">Y Bi</name>
</author>
</analytic>
</biblStruct>
<biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Hyun, Mh" uniqKey="Hyun M">MH Hyun</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Park, Y" uniqKey="Park Y">Y Park</name>
</author>
</analytic>
</biblStruct>
<biblStruct></biblStruct>
<biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Anderson, Rm" uniqKey="Anderson R">RM Anderson</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="May, Rm" uniqKey="May R">RM May</name>
</author>
</analytic>
</biblStruct>
<biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Diekmann, O" uniqKey="Diekmann O">O Diekmann</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Heesterbeek, Jap" uniqKey="Heesterbeek J">JAP Heesterbeek</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Metz, Jaj" uniqKey="Metz J">JAJ Metz</name>
</author>
</analytic>
</biblStruct>
<biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Heesterbeek, Jap" uniqKey="Heesterbeek J">JAP Heesterbeek</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Dietz, K" uniqKey="Dietz K">K Dietz</name>
</author>
</analytic>
</biblStruct>
<biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Diekmann, O" uniqKey="Diekmann O">O Diekmann</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Heesterbeek, Jap" uniqKey="Heesterbeek J">JAP Heesterbeek</name>
</author>
</analytic>
</biblStruct>
<biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Van Den Driessche, P" uniqKey="Van Den Driessche P">P van den Driessche</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Watmough, J" uniqKey="Watmough J">J Watmough</name>
</author>
</analytic>
</biblStruct>
<biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Heesterbeek, Jap" uniqKey="Heesterbeek J">JAP Heesterbeek</name>
</author>
</analytic>
</biblStruct>
<biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Heffernan, Jm" uniqKey="Heffernan J">JM Heffernan</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Smith, Rj" uniqKey="Smith R">RJ Smith</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Wahl, Lm" uniqKey="Wahl L">LM Wahl</name>
</author>
</analytic>
</biblStruct>
<biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Chowell, G" uniqKey="Chowell G">G Chowell</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Blumberg, S" uniqKey="Blumberg S">S Blumberg</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Simonsen, L" uniqKey="Simonsen L">L Simonsen</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Miller, Ma" uniqKey="Miller M">MA Miller</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Viboud, C" uniqKey="Viboud C">C Viboud</name>
</author>
</analytic>
</biblStruct>
<biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Distefano, J" uniqKey="Distefano J">J DiStefano</name>
</author>
</analytic>
</biblStruct>
<biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Yashima, K" uniqKey="Yashima K">K Yashima</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Sasaki, A" uniqKey="Sasaki A">A Sasaki</name>
</author>
</analytic>
</biblStruct>
<biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Anderson, Rm" uniqKey="Anderson R">RM Anderson</name>
</author>
</analytic>
</biblStruct>
<biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Weiss, H" uniqKey="Weiss H">H Weiss</name>
</author>
</analytic>
</biblStruct>
<biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Cowling, Bj" uniqKey="Cowling B">BJ Cowling</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Park, M" uniqKey="Park M">M Park</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Fang, Vj" uniqKey="Fang V">VJ Fang</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Wu, P" uniqKey="Wu P">P Wu</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Leung, Gm" uniqKey="Leung G">GM Leung</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Wu, Jt" uniqKey="Wu J">JT Wu</name>
</author>
</analytic>
</biblStruct>
<biblStruct></biblStruct>
<biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Wallinga, J" uniqKey="Wallinga J">J Wallinga</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Teunis, P" uniqKey="Teunis P">P Teunis</name>
</author>
</analytic>
</biblStruct>
<biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Mills, Ce" uniqKey="Mills C">CE Mills</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Robins, Jm" uniqKey="Robins J">JM Robins</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Lipsitch, M" uniqKey="Lipsitch M">M Lipsitch</name>
</author>
</analytic>
</biblStruct>
<biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Althaus, Cl" uniqKey="Althaus C">CL Althaus</name>
</author>
</analytic>
</biblStruct>
<biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Chowell, G" uniqKey="Chowell G">G Chowell</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Hengartner, Nw" uniqKey="Hengartner N">NW Hengartner</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Castillo Chavez, C" uniqKey="Castillo Chavez C">C Castillo-Chavez</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Fenimore, Pw" uniqKey="Fenimore P">PW Fenimore</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Hyman, Jm" uniqKey="Hyman J">JM Hyman</name>
</author>
</analytic>
</biblStruct>
<biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Smith, Dl" uniqKey="Smith D">DL Smith</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Mckenzie, Fe" uniqKey="Mckenzie F">FE McKenzie</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Snow, Rw" uniqKey="Snow R">RW Snow</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Hay, Si" uniqKey="Hay S">SI Hay</name>
</author>
</analytic>
</biblStruct>
<biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Ejima, K" uniqKey="Ejima K">K Ejima</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Aihara, K" uniqKey="Aihara K">K Aihara</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Nishiura, H" uniqKey="Nishiura H">H Nishiura</name>
</author>
</analytic>
</biblStruct>
<biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Ha, K M" uniqKey="Ha K">K-M Ha</name>
</author>
</analytic>
</biblStruct>
<biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Assiri, A" uniqKey="Assiri A">A Assiri</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Mcgeer, A" uniqKey="Mcgeer A">A McGeer</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Perl, Tm" uniqKey="Perl T">TM Perl</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Price, Cs" uniqKey="Price C">CS Price</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Al Rabeeah, Aa" uniqKey="Al Rabeeah A">AA Al Rabeeah</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Cummings, Dat" uniqKey="Cummings D">DAT Cummings</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Alabdullatif, Zn" uniqKey="Alabdullatif Z">ZN Alabdullatif</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Assad, M" uniqKey="Assad M">M Assad</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Almulhim, A" uniqKey="Almulhim A">A Almulhim</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Makhdoom, H" uniqKey="Makhdoom H">H Makhdoom</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Madani, H" uniqKey="Madani H">H Madani</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Alhakeem, R" uniqKey="Alhakeem R">R Alhakeem</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Al Tawfiq, Ja" uniqKey="Al Tawfiq J">JA Al-Tawfiq</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Cotten, M" uniqKey="Cotten M">M Cotten</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Watson, Sj" uniqKey="Watson S">SJ Watson</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Kellam, P" uniqKey="Kellam P">P Kellam</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Zumla, Ai" uniqKey="Zumla A">AI Zumla</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Memish, Za" uniqKey="Memish Z">ZA Memish</name>
</author>
</analytic>
</biblStruct>
<biblStruct></biblStruct>
<biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Area, I" uniqKey="Area I">I Area</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Batarfi, H" uniqKey="Batarfi H">H Batarfi</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Losada, J" uniqKey="Losada J">J Losada</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Nieto, Jj" uniqKey="Nieto J">JJ Nieto</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Shammakh, W" uniqKey="Shammakh W">W Shammakh</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Torres, A" uniqKey="Torres A">Á Torres</name>
</author>
</analytic>
</biblStruct>
<biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Nishiura, H" uniqKey="Nishiura H">H Nishiura</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Ejima, K" uniqKey="Ejima K">K Ejima</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Mizumoto, K" uniqKey="Mizumoto K">K Mizumoto</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Nakaoka, S" uniqKey="Nakaoka S">S Nakaoka</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Inaba, H" uniqKey="Inaba H">H Inaba</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Imoto, S" uniqKey="Imoto S">S Imoto</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Yamaguchi, R" uniqKey="Yamaguchi R">R Yamaguchi</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Saito, M" uniqKey="Saito M">M Saito</name>
</author>
</analytic>
</biblStruct>
</listBibl>
</div1>
</back>
</TEI>
<affiliations><list></list>
<tree><noCountry><name sortKey="Chang, Hyuk Jun" sort="Chang, Hyuk Jun" uniqKey="Chang H" first="Hyuk-Jun" last="Chang">Hyuk-Jun Chang</name>
</noCountry>
</tree>
</affiliations>
</record>
Pour manipuler ce document sous Unix (Dilib)
EXPLOR_STEP=$WICRI_ROOT/Sante/explor/MersV1/Data/Main/Exploration
HfdSelect -h $EXPLOR_STEP/biblio.hfd -nk 000D97 | SxmlIndent | more
Ou
HfdSelect -h $EXPLOR_AREA/Data/Main/Exploration/biblio.hfd -nk 000D97 | SxmlIndent | more
Pour mettre un lien sur cette page dans le réseau Wicri
{{Explor lien |wiki= Sante |area= MersV1 |flux= Main |étape= Exploration |type= RBID |clé= PMC:5470331 |texte= Estimation of basic reproduction number of the Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) during the outbreak in South Korea, 2015 }}
Pour générer des pages wiki
HfdIndexSelect -h $EXPLOR_AREA/Data/Main/Exploration/RBID.i -Sk "pubmed:28610609" \ | HfdSelect -Kh $EXPLOR_AREA/Data/Main/Exploration/biblio.hfd \ | NlmPubMed2Wicri -a MersV1
![]() | This area was generated with Dilib version V0.6.33. | ![]() |