Estimation of basic reproduction number of the Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) during the outbreak in South Korea, 2015
Identifieur interne : 001A71 ( Ncbi/Merge ); précédent : 001A70; suivant : 001A72Estimation of basic reproduction number of the Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) during the outbreak in South Korea, 2015
Auteurs : Hyuk-Jun ChangSource :
- BioMedical Engineering OnLine [ 1475-925X ] ; 2017.
Descripteurs français
- KwdFr :
- MESH :
- physiologie : Coronavirus du syndrome respiratoire du Moyen-Orient.
- épidémiologie : Infections à coronavirus, République de Corée.
- Flambées de maladies, Humains, Modèles statistiques, Nombre de reproduction de base.
English descriptors
- KwdEn :
- MESH :
- epidemiology : Coronavirus Infections, Republic of Korea.
- physiology : Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus.
- Basic Reproduction Number, Disease Outbreaks, Humans, Models, Statistical.
Abstract
In South Korea, an outbreak of Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS) occurred in 2015. It was the second largest MERS outbreak. As a result of the outbreak in South Korea, 186 infections were reported, and 36 patients died. At least 16,693 people were isolated with suspicious symptoms. This paper estimates the basic reproduction number of the MERS coronavirus (CoV), using data on the spread of MERS in South Korea.
The basic reproduction number of an epidemic is defined as the average number of secondary cases that an infected subject produces over its infectious period in a susceptible and uninfected population. To estimate the basic reproduction number of the MERS-CoV, we employ data from the 2015 South Korea MERS outbreak and the susceptible-infected-removed (SIR) model, a mathematical model that uses a set of ordinary differential equations (ODEs).
We fit the model to the epidemic data of the South Korea outbreak minimizing the sum of the squared errors to identify model parameters. Also we derive the basic reproductive number as the terms of the parameters of the SIR model. Then we determine the basic reproduction number of the MERS-CoV in South Korea in 2015 as 8.0977. It is worth comparing with the basic reproductive number of the 2014 Ebola outbreak in West Africa including Guinea, Sierra Leone, and Liberia, which had values of 1.5–2.5.
There was no intervention to control the infection in the early phase of the outbreak, thus the data used here provide the best conditions to evaluate the epidemic characteristics of MERS, such as the basic reproduction number. An evaluation of basic reproduction number using epidemic data could be problematic if there are stochastic fluctuations in the early phase of the outbreak, or if the report is not accurate and there is bias in the data. Such problems are not relevant to this study because the data used here were precisely reported and verified by Korea Hospital Association.
Url:
DOI: 10.1186/s12938-017-0370-7
PubMed: 28610609
PubMed Central: 5470331
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PMC:5470331Le document en format XML
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<sourceDesc><biblStruct><analytic><title xml:lang="en" level="a" type="main">Estimation of basic reproduction number of the Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) during the outbreak in South Korea, 2015</title>
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<term>Disease Outbreaks</term>
<term>Humans</term>
<term>Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus (physiology)</term>
<term>Models, Statistical</term>
<term>Republic of Korea (epidemiology)</term>
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<keywords scheme="KwdFr" xml:lang="fr"><term>Coronavirus du syndrome respiratoire du Moyen-Orient (physiologie)</term>
<term>Flambées de maladies</term>
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<term>Infections à coronavirus (épidémiologie)</term>
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<term>République de Corée (épidémiologie)</term>
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<front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en"><sec><title>Background</title>
<p>In South Korea, an outbreak of Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS) occurred in 2015. It was the second largest MERS outbreak. As a result of the outbreak in South Korea, 186 infections were reported, and 36 patients died. At least 16,693 people were isolated with suspicious symptoms. This paper estimates the basic reproduction number of the MERS coronavirus (CoV), using data on the spread of MERS in South Korea.</p>
</sec>
<sec><title>Methods</title>
<p>The basic reproduction number of an epidemic is defined as the average number of secondary cases that an infected subject produces over its infectious period in a susceptible and uninfected population. To estimate the basic reproduction number of the MERS-CoV, we employ data from the 2015 South Korea MERS outbreak and the susceptible-infected-removed (SIR) model, a mathematical model that uses a set of ordinary differential equations (ODEs).</p>
</sec>
<sec><title>Results</title>
<p>We fit the model to the epidemic data of the South Korea outbreak minimizing the sum of the squared errors to identify model parameters. Also we derive the basic reproductive number as the terms of the parameters of the SIR model. Then we determine the basic reproduction number of the MERS-CoV in South Korea in 2015 as 8.0977. It is worth comparing with the basic reproductive number of the 2014 Ebola outbreak in West Africa including Guinea, Sierra Leone, and Liberia, which had values of 1.5–2.5.</p>
</sec>
<sec><title>Conclusions</title>
<p>There was no intervention to control the infection in the early phase of the outbreak, thus the data used here provide the best conditions to evaluate the epidemic characteristics of MERS, such as the basic reproduction number. An evaluation of basic reproduction number using epidemic data could be problematic if there are stochastic fluctuations in the early phase of the outbreak, or if the report is not accurate and there is bias in the data. Such problems are not relevant to this study because the data used here were precisely reported and verified by Korea Hospital Association.</p>
</sec>
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<front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en"><sec><title>Background</title>
<p>In South Korea, an outbreak of Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS) occurred in 2015. It was the second largest MERS outbreak. As a result of the outbreak in South Korea, 186 infections were reported, and 36 patients died. At least 16,693 people were isolated with suspicious symptoms. This paper estimates the basic reproduction number of the MERS coronavirus (CoV), using data on the spread of MERS in South Korea.</p>
</sec>
<sec><title>Methods</title>
<p>The basic reproduction number of an epidemic is defined as the average number of secondary cases that an infected subject produces over its infectious period in a susceptible and uninfected population. To estimate the basic reproduction number of the MERS-CoV, we employ data from the 2015 South Korea MERS outbreak and the susceptible-infected-removed (SIR) model, a mathematical model that uses a set of ordinary differential equations (ODEs).</p>
</sec>
<sec><title>Results</title>
<p>We fit the model to the epidemic data of the South Korea outbreak minimizing the sum of the squared errors to identify model parameters. Also we derive the basic reproductive number as the terms of the parameters of the SIR model. Then we determine the basic reproduction number of the MERS-CoV in South Korea in 2015 as 8.0977. It is worth comparing with the basic reproductive number of the 2014 Ebola outbreak in West Africa including Guinea, Sierra Leone, and Liberia, which had values of 1.5–2.5.</p>
</sec>
<sec><title>Conclusions</title>
<p>There was no intervention to control the infection in the early phase of the outbreak, thus the data used here provide the best conditions to evaluate the epidemic characteristics of MERS, such as the basic reproduction number. An evaluation of basic reproduction number using epidemic data could be problematic if there are stochastic fluctuations in the early phase of the outbreak, or if the report is not accurate and there is bias in the data. Such problems are not relevant to this study because the data used here were precisely reported and verified by Korea Hospital Association.</p>
</sec>
</div>
</front>
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<pubmed><TEI><teiHeader><fileDesc><titleStmt><title xml:lang="en">Estimation of basic reproduction number of the Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) during the outbreak in South Korea, 2015.</title>
<author><name sortKey="Chang, Hyuk Jun" sort="Chang, Hyuk Jun" uniqKey="Chang H" first="Hyuk-Jun" last="Chang">Hyuk-Jun Chang</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="3"><nlm:affiliation>School of Electrical Engineering, Kookmin University, 77 Jeongneung-ro, Seongbuk-gu, 136-702, Seoul, Korea. hchang@kookmin.ac.kr.</nlm:affiliation>
<country xml:lang="fr">Corée du Sud</country>
<wicri:regionArea>School of Electrical Engineering, Kookmin University, 77 Jeongneung-ro, Seongbuk-gu, 136-702, Seoul</wicri:regionArea>
<placeName><settlement type="city">Séoul</settlement>
<region type="capital">Région capitale de Séoul</region>
</placeName>
</affiliation>
</author>
</titleStmt>
<publicationStmt><idno type="wicri:source">PubMed</idno>
<date when="2017">2017</date>
<idno type="RBID">pubmed:28610609</idno>
<idno type="pmid">28610609</idno>
<idno type="doi">10.1186/s12938-017-0370-7</idno>
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<sourceDesc><biblStruct><analytic><title xml:lang="en">Estimation of basic reproduction number of the Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) during the outbreak in South Korea, 2015.</title>
<author><name sortKey="Chang, Hyuk Jun" sort="Chang, Hyuk Jun" uniqKey="Chang H" first="Hyuk-Jun" last="Chang">Hyuk-Jun Chang</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="3"><nlm:affiliation>School of Electrical Engineering, Kookmin University, 77 Jeongneung-ro, Seongbuk-gu, 136-702, Seoul, Korea. hchang@kookmin.ac.kr.</nlm:affiliation>
<country xml:lang="fr">Corée du Sud</country>
<wicri:regionArea>School of Electrical Engineering, Kookmin University, 77 Jeongneung-ro, Seongbuk-gu, 136-702, Seoul</wicri:regionArea>
<placeName><settlement type="city">Séoul</settlement>
<region type="capital">Région capitale de Séoul</region>
</placeName>
</affiliation>
</author>
</analytic>
<series><title level="j">Biomedical engineering online</title>
<idno type="eISSN">1475-925X</idno>
<imprint><date when="2017" type="published">2017</date>
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<profileDesc><textClass><keywords scheme="KwdEn" xml:lang="en"><term>Basic Reproduction Number</term>
<term>Coronavirus Infections (epidemiology)</term>
<term>Disease Outbreaks</term>
<term>Humans</term>
<term>Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus (physiology)</term>
<term>Models, Statistical</term>
<term>Republic of Korea (epidemiology)</term>
</keywords>
<keywords scheme="KwdFr" xml:lang="fr"><term>Coronavirus du syndrome respiratoire du Moyen-Orient (physiologie)</term>
<term>Flambées de maladies</term>
<term>Humains</term>
<term>Infections à coronavirus (épidémiologie)</term>
<term>Modèles statistiques</term>
<term>Nombre de reproduction de base</term>
<term>République de Corée (épidémiologie)</term>
</keywords>
<keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="epidemiology" xml:lang="en"><term>Coronavirus Infections</term>
<term>Republic of Korea</term>
</keywords>
<keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="physiologie" xml:lang="fr"><term>Coronavirus du syndrome respiratoire du Moyen-Orient</term>
</keywords>
<keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="physiology" xml:lang="en"><term>Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus</term>
</keywords>
<keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="épidémiologie" xml:lang="fr"><term>Infections à coronavirus</term>
<term>République de Corée</term>
</keywords>
<keywords scheme="MESH" xml:lang="en"><term>Basic Reproduction Number</term>
<term>Disease Outbreaks</term>
<term>Humans</term>
<term>Models, Statistical</term>
</keywords>
<keywords scheme="MESH" xml:lang="fr"><term>Flambées de maladies</term>
<term>Humains</term>
<term>Modèles statistiques</term>
<term>Nombre de reproduction de base</term>
</keywords>
</textClass>
</profileDesc>
</teiHeader>
<front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en">In South Korea, an outbreak of Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS) occurred in 2015. It was the second largest MERS outbreak. As a result of the outbreak in South Korea, 186 infections were reported, and 36 patients died. At least 16,693 people were isolated with suspicious symptoms. This paper estimates the basic reproduction number of the MERS coronavirus (CoV), using data on the spread of MERS in South Korea.</div>
</front>
</TEI>
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