Detecting Differential Transmissibilities That Affect the Size of Self-Limited Outbreaks
Identifieur interne : 001C85 ( Main/Curation ); précédent : 001C84; suivant : 001C86Detecting Differential Transmissibilities That Affect the Size of Self-Limited Outbreaks
Auteurs : Seth Blumberg [États-Unis] ; Sebastian Funk [Royaume-Uni, États-Unis] ; Juliet R. C. Pulliam [États-Unis]Source :
- PLoS Pathogens [ 1553-7366 ] ; 2014.
Descripteurs français
- KwdFr :
- Amérique du Nord (épidémiologie), Coronavirus du syndrome respiratoire du Moyen-Orient, Europe (épidémiologie), Flambées de maladies, Humains, Infections à coronavirus (), Infections à coronavirus (transmission), Infections à coronavirus (épidémiologie), Modèles biologiques, Moyen Orient (épidémiologie), Orthopoxvirose simienne (), Orthopoxvirose simienne (transmission), Orthopoxvirose simienne (épidémiologie), Processus stochastiques, Rougeole (), Rougeole (transmission), Rougeole (épidémiologie), République démocratique du Congo (épidémiologie), Vaccination, Variole (), Variole (transmission), Variole (épidémiologie).
- MESH :
- épidémiologie : Amérique du Nord, Europe, Infections à coronavirus, Moyen Orient, Orthopoxvirose simienne, Rougeole, République démocratique du Congo, Variole.
- Coronavirus du syndrome respiratoire du Moyen-Orient, Flambées de maladies, Humains, Infections à coronavirus, Modèles biologiques, Orthopoxvirose simienne, Processus stochastiques, Rougeole, Vaccination, Variole.
English descriptors
- KwdEn :
- Coronavirus Infections (epidemiology), Coronavirus Infections (prevention & control), Coronavirus Infections (transmission), Democratic Republic of the Congo (epidemiology), Disease Outbreaks, Europe (epidemiology), Humans, Measles (epidemiology), Measles (prevention & control), Measles (transmission), Middle East (epidemiology), Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus, Models, Biological, Monkeypox (epidemiology), Monkeypox (prevention & control), Monkeypox (transmission), North America (epidemiology), Smallpox (epidemiology), Smallpox (prevention & control), Smallpox (transmission), Stochastic Processes, Vaccination.
- MESH :
- geographic , epidemiology : Democratic Republic of the Congo, Europe, Middle East, North America.
- epidemiology : Coronavirus Infections, Measles, Monkeypox, Smallpox.
- prevention & control : Coronavirus Infections, Measles, Monkeypox, Smallpox.
- transmission : Coronavirus Infections, Measles, Monkeypox, Smallpox.
- Disease Outbreaks, Humans, Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus, Models, Biological, Stochastic Processes, Vaccination.
Abstract
Our ability to respond appropriately to infectious diseases is enhanced by identifying differences in the potential for transmitting infection between individuals. Here, we identify epidemiological traits of self-limited infections (i.e. infections with an effective reproduction number satisfying
Url:
DOI: 10.1371/journal.ppat.1004452
PubMed: 25356657
PubMed Central: 4214794
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PMC:4214794Le document en format XML
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<front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en"><p>Our ability to respond appropriately to infectious diseases is enhanced by identifying differences in the potential for transmitting infection between individuals. Here, we identify epidemiological traits of self-limited infections (i.e. infections with an effective reproduction number satisfying <inline-formula><inline-graphic xlink:href="ppat.1004452.e001.jpg"></inline-graphic>
</inline-formula>
) that correlate with transmissibility. Our analysis is based on a branching process model that permits statistical comparison of both the strength and heterogeneity of transmission for two distinct types of cases. Our approach provides insight into a variety of scenarios, including the transmission of Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus (MERS-CoV) in the Arabian peninsula, measles in North America, pre-eradication smallpox in Europe, and human monkeypox in the Democratic Republic of the Congo. When applied to chain size data for MERS-CoV transmission before 2014, our method indicates that despite an apparent trend towards improved control, there is not enough statistical evidence to indicate that <inline-formula><inline-graphic xlink:href="ppat.1004452.e002.jpg"></inline-graphic>
</inline-formula>
has declined with time. Meanwhile, chain size data for measles in the United States and Canada reveal statistically significant geographic variation in <inline-formula><inline-graphic xlink:href="ppat.1004452.e003.jpg"></inline-graphic>
</inline-formula>
, suggesting that the timing and coverage of national vaccination programs, as well as contact tracing procedures, may shape the size distribution of observed infection clusters. Infection source data for smallpox suggests that primary cases transmitted more than secondary cases, and provides a quantitative assessment of the effectiveness of control interventions. Human monkeypox, on the other hand, does not show evidence of differential transmission between animals in contact with humans, primary cases, or secondary cases, which assuages the concern that social mixing can amplify transmission by secondary cases. Lastly, we evaluate surveillance requirements for detecting a change in the human-to-human transmission of monkeypox since the cessation of cross-protective smallpox vaccination. Our studies lay the foundation for future investigations regarding how infection source, vaccination status or other putative transmissibility traits may affect self-limited transmission.</p>
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