Lockdown timing and efficacy in controlling COVID-19 using mobile phone tracking.
Identifieur interne : 001A08 ( Main/Corpus ); précédent : 001A07; suivant : 001A09Lockdown timing and efficacy in controlling COVID-19 using mobile phone tracking.
Auteurs : Marco Vinceti ; Tommaso Filippini ; Kenneth J. Rothman ; Fabrizio Ferrari ; Alessia Goffi ; Giuseppe Maffeis ; Nicola OrsiniSource :
- EClinicalMedicine [ 2589-5370 ] ; 2020.
Abstract
Background
Italy's severe COVID-19 outbreak was addressed by a lockdown that gradually increased in space, time and intensity. The effectiveness of the lockdown has not been precisely assessed with respect to the intensity of mobility restriction and the time until the outbreak receded.
Methods
We used processed mobile phone tracking data to measure mobility restriction, and related those data to the number of new SARS-CoV-2 positive cases detected on a daily base in the three most affected Italian regions, Lombardy, Veneto and Emilia-Romagna, from February 1 through April 6, 2020, when two subsequent lockdowns with increasing intensity were implemented by the Italian government.
Findings
During the study period, mobility restriction was inversely related to the daily number of newly diagnosed SARS-CoV-2 positive cases only after the second, more effective lockdown, with a peak in the curve of diagnosed cases of infection occurring 14 to 18 days from lockdown in the three regions and 9 to 25 days in the included provinces. An effective reduction in transmission must have occurred nearly immediately after the tighter lockdown, given the lag time of around 10 days from asymptomatic infection to diagnosis. The period from lockdown to peak was shorter in the areas with the highest prevalence of the infection. This effect was seen within slightly more than one week in the most severely affected areas.
Interpretation
It appears that the less rigid lockdown led to an insufficient decrease in mobility to reverse an outbreak such as COVID-19. With a tighter lockdown, mobility decreased enough to bring down transmission promptly below the level needed to sustain the epidemic.
Funding
No funding sources have been used for this work.
DOI: 10.1016/j.eclinm.2020.100457
PubMed: 32838234
PubMed Central: PMC7355328
Links to Exploration step
pubmed:32838234Le document en format XML
<record><TEI><teiHeader><fileDesc><titleStmt><title xml:lang="en">Lockdown timing and efficacy in controlling COVID-19 using mobile phone tracking.</title><author><name sortKey="Vinceti, Marco" sort="Vinceti, Marco" uniqKey="Vinceti M" first="Marco" last="Vinceti">Marco Vinceti</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Environmental, Genetic and Nutritional Epidemiology Research Center (CREAGEN), Section of Public Health, Department of Biomedical, Metabolic and Neural Sciences, University of Modena and Reggio Emilia, Via Campi 287, 41125 Modena, Italy.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Department of Epidemiology, Boston University School of Public Health, 715 Albany St, Boston, MA 02118, United States.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Filippini, Tommaso" sort="Filippini, Tommaso" uniqKey="Filippini T" first="Tommaso" last="Filippini">Tommaso Filippini</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Environmental, Genetic and Nutritional Epidemiology Research Center (CREAGEN), Section of Public Health, Department of Biomedical, Metabolic and Neural Sciences, University of Modena and Reggio Emilia, Via Campi 287, 41125 Modena, Italy.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Rothman, Kenneth J" sort="Rothman, Kenneth J" uniqKey="Rothman K" first="Kenneth J" last="Rothman">Kenneth J. Rothman</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Department of Epidemiology, Boston University School of Public Health, 715 Albany St, Boston, MA 02118, United States.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>RTI Health Solutions, 3040 E Cornwallis Rd, Research Triangle Park, NC 27709, United States.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Ferrari, Fabrizio" sort="Ferrari, Fabrizio" uniqKey="Ferrari F" first="Fabrizio" last="Ferrari">Fabrizio Ferrari</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Terraria, Via Melchiorre Gioia, 132, 20125 Milan, Italy.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Goffi, Alessia" sort="Goffi, Alessia" uniqKey="Goffi A" first="Alessia" last="Goffi">Alessia Goffi</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Terraria, Via Melchiorre Gioia, 132, 20125 Milan, Italy.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Maffeis, Giuseppe" sort="Maffeis, Giuseppe" uniqKey="Maffeis G" first="Giuseppe" last="Maffeis">Giuseppe Maffeis</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Terraria, Via Melchiorre Gioia, 132, 20125 Milan, Italy.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Orsini, Nicola" sort="Orsini, Nicola" uniqKey="Orsini N" first="Nicola" last="Orsini">Nicola Orsini</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Department of Global Public Health, Karolinska Institutet, Solnavägen 1 E, 11365 Stockholm, Sweden.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author></titleStmt><publicationStmt><idno type="wicri:source">PubMed</idno><date when="2020">2020</date><idno type="RBID">pubmed:32838234</idno><idno type="pmid">32838234</idno><idno type="doi">10.1016/j.eclinm.2020.100457</idno><idno type="pmc">PMC7355328</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/Main/Corpus">001A08</idno><idno type="wicri:explorRef" wicri:stream="Main" wicri:step="Corpus" wicri:corpus="PubMed">001A08</idno></publicationStmt><sourceDesc><biblStruct><analytic><title xml:lang="en">Lockdown timing and efficacy in controlling COVID-19 using mobile phone tracking.</title><author><name sortKey="Vinceti, Marco" sort="Vinceti, Marco" uniqKey="Vinceti M" first="Marco" last="Vinceti">Marco Vinceti</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Environmental, Genetic and Nutritional Epidemiology Research Center (CREAGEN), Section of Public Health, Department of Biomedical, Metabolic and Neural Sciences, University of Modena and Reggio Emilia, Via Campi 287, 41125 Modena, Italy.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Department of Epidemiology, Boston University School of Public Health, 715 Albany St, Boston, MA 02118, United States.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Filippini, Tommaso" sort="Filippini, Tommaso" uniqKey="Filippini T" first="Tommaso" last="Filippini">Tommaso Filippini</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Environmental, Genetic and Nutritional Epidemiology Research Center (CREAGEN), Section of Public Health, Department of Biomedical, Metabolic and Neural Sciences, University of Modena and Reggio Emilia, Via Campi 287, 41125 Modena, Italy.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Rothman, Kenneth J" sort="Rothman, Kenneth J" uniqKey="Rothman K" first="Kenneth J" last="Rothman">Kenneth J. Rothman</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Department of Epidemiology, Boston University School of Public Health, 715 Albany St, Boston, MA 02118, United States.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>RTI Health Solutions, 3040 E Cornwallis Rd, Research Triangle Park, NC 27709, United States.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Ferrari, Fabrizio" sort="Ferrari, Fabrizio" uniqKey="Ferrari F" first="Fabrizio" last="Ferrari">Fabrizio Ferrari</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Terraria, Via Melchiorre Gioia, 132, 20125 Milan, Italy.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Goffi, Alessia" sort="Goffi, Alessia" uniqKey="Goffi A" first="Alessia" last="Goffi">Alessia Goffi</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Terraria, Via Melchiorre Gioia, 132, 20125 Milan, Italy.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Maffeis, Giuseppe" sort="Maffeis, Giuseppe" uniqKey="Maffeis G" first="Giuseppe" last="Maffeis">Giuseppe Maffeis</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Terraria, Via Melchiorre Gioia, 132, 20125 Milan, Italy.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Orsini, Nicola" sort="Orsini, Nicola" uniqKey="Orsini N" first="Nicola" last="Orsini">Nicola Orsini</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Department of Global Public Health, Karolinska Institutet, Solnavägen 1 E, 11365 Stockholm, Sweden.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author></analytic><series><title level="j">EClinicalMedicine</title><idno type="eISSN">2589-5370</idno><imprint><date when="2020" type="published">2020</date></imprint></series></biblStruct></sourceDesc></fileDesc><profileDesc><textClass></textClass></profileDesc></teiHeader><front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en"><p><b>Background</b></p><p>Italy's severe COVID-19 outbreak was addressed by a lockdown that gradually increased in space, time and intensity. The effectiveness of the lockdown has not been precisely assessed with respect to the intensity of mobility restriction and the time until the outbreak receded.</p></div><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en"><p><b>Methods</b></p><p>We used processed mobile phone tracking data to measure mobility restriction, and related those data to the number of new SARS-CoV-2 positive cases detected on a daily base in the three most affected Italian regions, Lombardy, Veneto and Emilia-Romagna, from February 1 through April 6, 2020, when two subsequent lockdowns with increasing intensity were implemented by the Italian government.</p></div><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en"><p><b>Findings</b></p><p>During the study period, mobility restriction was inversely related to the daily number of newly diagnosed SARS-CoV-2 positive cases only after the second, more effective lockdown, with a peak in the curve of diagnosed cases of infection occurring 14 to 18 days from lockdown in the three regions and 9 to 25 days in the included provinces. An effective reduction in transmission must have occurred nearly immediately after the tighter lockdown, given the lag time of around 10 days from asymptomatic infection to diagnosis. The period from lockdown to peak was shorter in the areas with the highest prevalence of the infection. This effect was seen within slightly more than one week in the most severely affected areas.</p></div><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en"><p><b>Interpretation</b></p><p>It appears that the less rigid lockdown led to an insufficient decrease in mobility to reverse an outbreak such as COVID-19. With a tighter lockdown, mobility decreased enough to bring down transmission promptly below the level needed to sustain the epidemic.</p></div><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en"><p><b>Funding</b></p><p>No funding sources have been used for this work.</p></div></front></TEI><pubmed><MedlineCitation Status="PubMed-not-MEDLINE" Owner="NLM"><PMID Version="1">32838234</PMID><DateRevised><Year>2021</Year><Month>01</Month><Day>27</Day></DateRevised><Article PubModel="Print-Electronic"><Journal><ISSN IssnType="Electronic">2589-5370</ISSN><JournalIssue CitedMedium="Internet"><Volume>25</Volume><PubDate><Year>2020</Year><Month>Aug</Month></PubDate></JournalIssue><Title>EClinicalMedicine</Title><ISOAbbreviation>EClinicalMedicine</ISOAbbreviation></Journal><ArticleTitle>Lockdown timing and efficacy in controlling COVID-19 using mobile phone tracking.</ArticleTitle><Pagination><MedlinePgn>100457</MedlinePgn></Pagination><ELocationID EIdType="doi" ValidYN="Y">10.1016/j.eclinm.2020.100457</ELocationID><Abstract><AbstractText Label="Background" NlmCategory="UNASSIGNED">Italy's severe COVID-19 outbreak was addressed by a lockdown that gradually increased in space, time and intensity. The effectiveness of the lockdown has not been precisely assessed with respect to the intensity of mobility restriction and the time until the outbreak receded.</AbstractText><AbstractText Label="Methods" NlmCategory="UNASSIGNED">We used processed mobile phone tracking data to measure mobility restriction, and related those data to the number of new SARS-CoV-2 positive cases detected on a daily base in the three most affected Italian regions, Lombardy, Veneto and Emilia-Romagna, from February 1 through April 6, 2020, when two subsequent lockdowns with increasing intensity were implemented by the Italian government.</AbstractText><AbstractText Label="Findings" NlmCategory="UNASSIGNED">During the study period, mobility restriction was inversely related to the daily number of newly diagnosed SARS-CoV-2 positive cases only after the second, more effective lockdown, with a peak in the curve of diagnosed cases of infection occurring 14 to 18 days from lockdown in the three regions and 9 to 25 days in the included provinces. An effective reduction in transmission must have occurred nearly immediately after the tighter lockdown, given the lag time of around 10 days from asymptomatic infection to diagnosis. The period from lockdown to peak was shorter in the areas with the highest prevalence of the infection. This effect was seen within slightly more than one week in the most severely affected areas.</AbstractText><AbstractText Label="Interpretation" NlmCategory="UNASSIGNED">It appears that the less rigid lockdown led to an insufficient decrease in mobility to reverse an outbreak such as COVID-19. With a tighter lockdown, mobility decreased enough to bring down transmission promptly below the level needed to sustain the epidemic.</AbstractText><AbstractText Label="Funding" NlmCategory="UNASSIGNED">No funding sources have been used for this work.</AbstractText><CopyrightInformation>© 2020 The Authors.</CopyrightInformation></Abstract><AuthorList CompleteYN="Y"><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Vinceti</LastName><ForeName>Marco</ForeName><Initials>M</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Environmental, Genetic and Nutritional Epidemiology Research Center (CREAGEN), Section of Public Health, Department of Biomedical, Metabolic and Neural Sciences, University of Modena and Reggio Emilia, Via Campi 287, 41125 Modena, Italy.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Department of Epidemiology, Boston University School of Public Health, 715 Albany St, Boston, MA 02118, United States.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Filippini</LastName><ForeName>Tommaso</ForeName><Initials>T</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Environmental, Genetic and Nutritional Epidemiology Research Center (CREAGEN), Section of Public Health, Department of Biomedical, Metabolic and Neural Sciences, University of Modena and Reggio Emilia, Via Campi 287, 41125 Modena, Italy.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Rothman</LastName><ForeName>Kenneth J</ForeName><Initials>KJ</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Department of Epidemiology, Boston University School of Public Health, 715 Albany St, Boston, MA 02118, United States.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>RTI Health Solutions, 3040 E Cornwallis Rd, Research Triangle Park, NC 27709, United States.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Ferrari</LastName><ForeName>Fabrizio</ForeName><Initials>F</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Terraria, Via Melchiorre Gioia, 132, 20125 Milan, Italy.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Goffi</LastName><ForeName>Alessia</ForeName><Initials>A</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Terraria, Via Melchiorre Gioia, 132, 20125 Milan, Italy.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Maffeis</LastName><ForeName>Giuseppe</ForeName><Initials>G</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Terraria, Via Melchiorre Gioia, 132, 20125 Milan, Italy.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Orsini</LastName><ForeName>Nicola</ForeName><Initials>N</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Department of Global Public Health, Karolinska Institutet, Solnavägen 1 E, 11365 Stockholm, Sweden.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author></AuthorList><Language>eng</Language><PublicationTypeList><PublicationType UI="D016428">Journal Article</PublicationType></PublicationTypeList><ArticleDate DateType="Electronic"><Year>2020</Year><Month>07</Month><Day>13</Day></ArticleDate></Article><MedlineJournalInfo><Country>England</Country><MedlineTA>EClinicalMedicine</MedlineTA><NlmUniqueID>101733727</NlmUniqueID><ISSNLinking>2589-5370</ISSNLinking></MedlineJournalInfo><KeywordList Owner="NOTNLM"><Keyword MajorTopicYN="N">COVID-19</Keyword><Keyword MajorTopicYN="N">Cellphone</Keyword><Keyword MajorTopicYN="N">Epidemiology</Keyword><Keyword MajorTopicYN="N">Lockdown</Keyword><Keyword MajorTopicYN="N">Outbreak</Keyword><Keyword MajorTopicYN="N">Peak</Keyword><Keyword MajorTopicYN="N">SARS-CoV-2</Keyword><Keyword MajorTopicYN="N">Time trend</Keyword></KeywordList><CoiStatement>The authors have no conflict of interests to disclose.</CoiStatement></MedlineCitation><PubmedData><History><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="received"><Year>2020</Year><Month>05</Month><Day>18</Day></PubMedPubDate><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="revised"><Year>2020</Year><Month>06</Month><Day>20</Day></PubMedPubDate><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="accepted"><Year>2020</Year><Month>06</Month><Day>25</Day></PubMedPubDate><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="pubmed"><Year>2020</Year><Month>8</Month><Day>25</Day><Hour>6</Hour><Minute>0</Minute></PubMedPubDate><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="medline"><Year>2020</Year><Month>8</Month><Day>25</Day><Hour>6</Hour><Minute>1</Minute></PubMedPubDate><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="entrez"><Year>2020</Year><Month>8</Month><Day>25</Day><Hour>6</Hour><Minute>0</Minute></PubMedPubDate></History><PublicationStatus>ppublish</PublicationStatus><ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">32838234</ArticleId><ArticleId IdType="doi">10.1016/j.eclinm.2020.100457</ArticleId><ArticleId IdType="pii">S2589-5370(20)30201-7</ArticleId><ArticleId IdType="pii">100457</ArticleId><ArticleId IdType="pmc">PMC7355328</ArticleId></ArticleIdList><pmc-dir>pmcsd</pmc-dir>
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