Using the COVID-19 to influenza ratio to estimate early pandemic spread in Wuhan, China and Seattle, US.
Identifieur interne : 001A07 ( Main/Corpus ); précédent : 001A06; suivant : 001A08Using the COVID-19 to influenza ratio to estimate early pandemic spread in Wuhan, China and Seattle, US.
Auteurs : Zhanwei Du ; Emily Javan ; Ciara Nugent ; Benjamin J. Cowling ; Lauren Ancel MeyersSource :
- EClinicalMedicine [ 2589-5370 ] ; 2020.
Abstract
Background
Pandemic SARS-CoV-2 was first reported in Wuhan, China on December 31, 2019. Twenty-one days later, the US identified its first case--a man who had traveled from Wuhan to the state of Washington. Recent studies in the Wuhan and Seattle metropolitan areas retrospectively tested samples taken from patients with COVID-like symptoms. In the Wuhan study, there were 4 SARS-CoV-2 positives and 7 influenza positives out of 26 adults outpatients who sought care for influenza-like-illness at two central hospitals prior to January 12, 2020. The Seattle study reported 25 SARS-CoV-2 positives and 442 influenza positives out of 2353 children and adults who reported acute respiratory illness prior to March 9, 2020. Here, we use these findings to extrapolate the early prevalence of symptomatic COVID-19 in Wuhan and Seattle.
Methods
For each city, we estimate the ratio of COVID-19 to influenza infections from the retrospective testing data and estimate the age-specific prevalence of influenza from surveillance reports during the same time period. Combining these, we approximate the total number of symptomatic COVID-19 infections.
Findings
In Wuhan, there were an estimated 1386 [95% CrI: 420-3793] symptomatic cases over 30 of COVID-19 between December 30, 2019 and January 12, 2020. In Seattle, we estimate that 2268 [95% CrI: 498, 6069] children under 18 and 4367 [95% CrI: 2776, 6526] adults were symptomatically infected between February 24 and March 9, 2020. We also find that the initial pandemic wave in Wuhan likely originated with a single infected case who developed symptoms sometime between October 26 and December 13, 2019; in Seattle, the seeding likely occurred between December 25, 2019 and January 15, 2020.
Interpretation
The spread of COVID-19 in Wuhan and Seattle was far more extensive than initially reported. The virus likely spread for months in Wuhan before the lockdown. Given that COVID-19 appears to be overwhelmingly mild in children, our high estimate for symptomatic pediatric cases in Seattle suggests that there may have been thousands more mild cases at the time.
DOI: 10.1016/j.eclinm.2020.100479
PubMed: 32838239
PubMed Central: PMC7422814
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<record><TEI><teiHeader><fileDesc><titleStmt><title xml:lang="en">Using the COVID-19 to influenza ratio to estimate early pandemic spread in Wuhan, China and Seattle, US.</title><author><name sortKey="Du, Zhanwei" sort="Du, Zhanwei" uniqKey="Du Z" first="Zhanwei" last="Du">Zhanwei Du</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>The University of Texas at Austin, Austin, TX 78712, United States.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Javan, Emily" sort="Javan, Emily" uniqKey="Javan E" first="Emily" last="Javan">Emily Javan</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>The University of Texas at Austin, Austin, TX 78712, United States.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Nugent, Ciara" sort="Nugent, Ciara" uniqKey="Nugent C" first="Ciara" last="Nugent">Ciara Nugent</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>The University of Texas at Austin, Austin, TX 78712, United States.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Cowling, Benjamin J" sort="Cowling, Benjamin J" uniqKey="Cowling B" first="Benjamin J" last="Cowling">Benjamin J. Cowling</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>The University of Hong Kong, 7 Sassoon Rd, Hong Kong SAR, China.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Meyers, Lauren Ancel" sort="Meyers, Lauren Ancel" uniqKey="Meyers L" first="Lauren Ancel" last="Meyers">Lauren Ancel Meyers</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>The University of Texas at Austin, Austin, TX 78712, United States.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Santa Fe Institute, Santa Fe, NM, United States.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author></titleStmt><publicationStmt><idno type="wicri:source">PubMed</idno><date when="2020">2020</date><idno type="RBID">pubmed:32838239</idno><idno type="pmid">32838239</idno><idno type="doi">10.1016/j.eclinm.2020.100479</idno><idno type="pmc">PMC7422814</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/Main/Corpus">001A07</idno><idno type="wicri:explorRef" wicri:stream="Main" wicri:step="Corpus" wicri:corpus="PubMed">001A07</idno></publicationStmt><sourceDesc><biblStruct><analytic><title xml:lang="en">Using the COVID-19 to influenza ratio to estimate early pandemic spread in Wuhan, China and Seattle, US.</title><author><name sortKey="Du, Zhanwei" sort="Du, Zhanwei" uniqKey="Du Z" first="Zhanwei" last="Du">Zhanwei Du</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>The University of Texas at Austin, Austin, TX 78712, United States.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Javan, Emily" sort="Javan, Emily" uniqKey="Javan E" first="Emily" last="Javan">Emily Javan</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>The University of Texas at Austin, Austin, TX 78712, United States.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Nugent, Ciara" sort="Nugent, Ciara" uniqKey="Nugent C" first="Ciara" last="Nugent">Ciara Nugent</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>The University of Texas at Austin, Austin, TX 78712, United States.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Cowling, Benjamin J" sort="Cowling, Benjamin J" uniqKey="Cowling B" first="Benjamin J" last="Cowling">Benjamin J. Cowling</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>The University of Hong Kong, 7 Sassoon Rd, Hong Kong SAR, China.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Meyers, Lauren Ancel" sort="Meyers, Lauren Ancel" uniqKey="Meyers L" first="Lauren Ancel" last="Meyers">Lauren Ancel Meyers</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>The University of Texas at Austin, Austin, TX 78712, United States.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Santa Fe Institute, Santa Fe, NM, United States.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author></analytic><series><title level="j">EClinicalMedicine</title><idno type="eISSN">2589-5370</idno><imprint><date when="2020" type="published">2020</date></imprint></series></biblStruct></sourceDesc></fileDesc><profileDesc><textClass></textClass></profileDesc></teiHeader><front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en"><p><b>Background</b></p><p>Pandemic SARS-CoV-2 was first reported in Wuhan, China on December 31, 2019. Twenty-one days later, the US identified its first case--a man who had traveled from Wuhan to the state of Washington. Recent studies in the Wuhan and Seattle metropolitan areas retrospectively tested samples taken from patients with COVID-like symptoms. In the Wuhan study, there were 4 SARS-CoV-2 positives and 7 influenza positives out of 26 adults outpatients who sought care for influenza-like-illness at two central hospitals prior to January 12, 2020. The Seattle study reported 25 SARS-CoV-2 positives and 442 influenza positives out of 2353 children and adults who reported acute respiratory illness prior to March 9, 2020. Here, we use these findings to extrapolate the early prevalence of symptomatic COVID-19 in Wuhan and Seattle.</p></div><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en"><p><b>Methods</b></p><p>For each city, we estimate the ratio of COVID-19 to influenza infections from the retrospective testing data and estimate the age-specific prevalence of influenza from surveillance reports during the same time period. Combining these, we approximate the total number of symptomatic COVID-19 infections.</p></div><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en"><p><b>Findings</b></p><p>In Wuhan, there were an estimated 1386 [95% CrI: 420-3793] symptomatic cases over 30 of COVID-19 between December 30, 2019 and January 12, 2020. In Seattle, we estimate that 2268 [95% CrI: 498, 6069] children under 18 and 4367 [95% CrI: 2776, 6526] adults were symptomatically infected between February 24 and March 9, 2020. We also find that the initial pandemic wave in Wuhan likely originated with a single infected case who developed symptoms sometime between October 26 and December 13, 2019; in Seattle, the seeding likely occurred between December 25, 2019 and January 15, 2020.</p></div><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en"><p><b>Interpretation</b></p><p>The spread of COVID-19 in Wuhan and Seattle was far more extensive than initially reported. The virus likely spread for months in Wuhan before the lockdown. Given that COVID-19 appears to be overwhelmingly mild in children, our high estimate for symptomatic pediatric cases in Seattle suggests that there may have been thousands more mild cases at the time.</p></div></front></TEI><pubmed><MedlineCitation Status="PubMed-not-MEDLINE" Owner="NLM"><PMID Version="1">32838239</PMID><DateRevised><Year>2020</Year><Month>10</Month><Day>13</Day></DateRevised><Article PubModel="Print-Electronic"><Journal><ISSN IssnType="Electronic">2589-5370</ISSN><JournalIssue CitedMedium="Internet"><Volume>26</Volume><PubDate><Year>2020</Year><Month>Sep</Month></PubDate></JournalIssue><Title>EClinicalMedicine</Title><ISOAbbreviation>EClinicalMedicine</ISOAbbreviation></Journal><ArticleTitle>Using the COVID-19 to influenza ratio to estimate early pandemic spread in Wuhan, China and Seattle, US.</ArticleTitle><Pagination><MedlinePgn>100479</MedlinePgn></Pagination><ELocationID EIdType="doi" ValidYN="Y">10.1016/j.eclinm.2020.100479</ELocationID><Abstract><AbstractText Label="Background" NlmCategory="UNASSIGNED">Pandemic SARS-CoV-2 was first reported in Wuhan, China on December 31, 2019. Twenty-one days later, the US identified its first case--a man who had traveled from Wuhan to the state of Washington. Recent studies in the Wuhan and Seattle metropolitan areas retrospectively tested samples taken from patients with COVID-like symptoms. In the Wuhan study, there were 4 SARS-CoV-2 positives and 7 influenza positives out of 26 adults outpatients who sought care for influenza-like-illness at two central hospitals prior to January 12, 2020. The Seattle study reported 25 SARS-CoV-2 positives and 442 influenza positives out of 2353 children and adults who reported acute respiratory illness prior to March 9, 2020. Here, we use these findings to extrapolate the early prevalence of symptomatic COVID-19 in Wuhan and Seattle.</AbstractText><AbstractText Label="Methods" NlmCategory="UNASSIGNED">For each city, we estimate the ratio of COVID-19 to influenza infections from the retrospective testing data and estimate the age-specific prevalence of influenza from surveillance reports during the same time period. Combining these, we approximate the total number of symptomatic COVID-19 infections.</AbstractText><AbstractText Label="Findings" NlmCategory="UNASSIGNED">In Wuhan, there were an estimated 1386 [95% CrI: 420-3793] symptomatic cases over 30 of COVID-19 between December 30, 2019 and January 12, 2020. In Seattle, we estimate that 2268 [95% CrI: 498, 6069] children under 18 and 4367 [95% CrI: 2776, 6526] adults were symptomatically infected between February 24 and March 9, 2020. We also find that the initial pandemic wave in Wuhan likely originated with a single infected case who developed symptoms sometime between October 26 and December 13, 2019; in Seattle, the seeding likely occurred between December 25, 2019 and January 15, 2020.</AbstractText><AbstractText Label="Interpretation" NlmCategory="UNASSIGNED">The spread of COVID-19 in Wuhan and Seattle was far more extensive than initially reported. The virus likely spread for months in Wuhan before the lockdown. Given that COVID-19 appears to be overwhelmingly mild in children, our high estimate for symptomatic pediatric cases in Seattle suggests that there may have been thousands more mild cases at the time.</AbstractText><CopyrightInformation>© 2020 Published by Elsevier Ltd.</CopyrightInformation></Abstract><AuthorList CompleteYN="Y"><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Du</LastName><ForeName>Zhanwei</ForeName><Initials>Z</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>The University of Texas at Austin, Austin, TX 78712, United States.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Javan</LastName><ForeName>Emily</ForeName><Initials>E</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>The University of Texas at Austin, Austin, TX 78712, United States.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Nugent</LastName><ForeName>Ciara</ForeName><Initials>C</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>The University of Texas at Austin, Austin, TX 78712, United States.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Cowling</LastName><ForeName>Benjamin J</ForeName><Initials>BJ</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>The University of Hong Kong, 7 Sassoon Rd, Hong Kong SAR, China.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Meyers</LastName><ForeName>Lauren Ancel</ForeName><Initials>LA</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>The University of Texas at Austin, Austin, TX 78712, United States.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Santa Fe Institute, Santa Fe, NM, United States.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author></AuthorList><Language>eng</Language><PublicationTypeList><PublicationType UI="D016428">Journal Article</PublicationType></PublicationTypeList><ArticleDate DateType="Electronic"><Year>2020</Year><Month>08</Month><Day>12</Day></ArticleDate></Article><MedlineJournalInfo><Country>England</Country><MedlineTA>EClinicalMedicine</MedlineTA><NlmUniqueID>101733727</NlmUniqueID><ISSNLinking>2589-5370</ISSNLinking></MedlineJournalInfo><CommentsCorrectionsList><CommentsCorrections RefType="UpdateOf"><RefSource>medRxiv. 2020 May 01;:</RefSource><PMID Version="1">32511598</PMID></CommentsCorrections></CommentsCorrectionsList><KeywordList Owner="NOTNLM"><Keyword MajorTopicYN="N">Adult infections</Keyword><Keyword MajorTopicYN="N">COVID-19</Keyword><Keyword MajorTopicYN="N">Influenza</Keyword><Keyword MajorTopicYN="N">Pediatric infections</Keyword><Keyword MajorTopicYN="N">Seattle</Keyword><Keyword MajorTopicYN="N">Wuhan</Keyword></KeywordList><CoiStatement>We declare no competing interests.</CoiStatement></MedlineCitation><PubmedData><History><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="received"><Year>2020</Year><Month>06</Month><Day>03</Day></PubMedPubDate><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="revised"><Year>2020</Year><Month>07</Month><Day>14</Day></PubMedPubDate><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="accepted"><Year>2020</Year><Month>07</Month><Day>14</Day></PubMedPubDate><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="pubmed"><Year>2020</Year><Month>8</Month><Day>25</Day><Hour>6</Hour><Minute>0</Minute></PubMedPubDate><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="medline"><Year>2020</Year><Month>8</Month><Day>25</Day><Hour>6</Hour><Minute>1</Minute></PubMedPubDate><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="entrez"><Year>2020</Year><Month>8</Month><Day>25</Day><Hour>6</Hour><Minute>0</Minute></PubMedPubDate></History><PublicationStatus>ppublish</PublicationStatus><ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">32838239</ArticleId><ArticleId IdType="doi">10.1016/j.eclinm.2020.100479</ArticleId><ArticleId IdType="pii">100479</ArticleId><ArticleId IdType="pmc">PMC7422814</ArticleId></ArticleIdList><pmc-dir>pmcsd</pmc-dir>
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