Population Serologic Immunity to Human and Avian H2N2 Viruses in the United States and Hong Kong for Pandemic Risk Assessment
Identifieur interne : 000630 ( Pmc/Curation ); précédent : 000629; suivant : 000631Population Serologic Immunity to Human and Avian H2N2 Viruses in the United States and Hong Kong for Pandemic Risk Assessment
Auteurs : Tara M. Babu [États-Unis] ; Ranawaka A P M. Perera ; Joseph T. Wu ; Theresa Fitzgerald [États-Unis] ; Carolyn Nolan [États-Unis] ; Benjamin J. Cowling ; Scott Krauss [États-Unis] ; John J. Treanor [États-Unis] ; Malik PeirisSource :
- The Journal of Infectious Diseases [ 0022-1899 ] ; 2018.
Abstract
Influenza A pandemics cause significant mortality and morbidity. H2N2 viruses have caused a prior pandemic, and are circulating in avian reservoirs. The age-related frequency of current population immunity to H2 viruses was evaluated.
Hemagglutinin inhibition (HAI) assays against historical human and recent avian influenza A(H2N2) viruses were performed across age groups in Rochester, New York, and Hong Kong, China. The impact of existing cross-reactive HAI immunity on the effective reproduction number was modeled.
One hundred fifty individual sera from Rochester and 295 from Hong Kong were included. Eighty-five percent of patients born in Rochester and Hong Kong before 1968 had HAI titers ≥1:40 against A/Singapore/1/57, and >50% had titers ≥1:40 against A/Berkeley/1/68. The frequency of titers ≥1:40 to avian H2N2 A/mallard/England/727/06 and A/mallard/Netherlands/14/07 in subjects born before 1957 was 62% and 24%, respectively. There were no H2 HAI titers >1:40 in individuals born after 1968. These levels of seroprevalence reduce the initial reproduction number of A/Singapore/1/1957 or A/Berkeley/1/68 by 15%–20%. A basic reproduction number (R0) of the emerging transmissible virus <1.2 predicts a preventable pandemic.
Population immunity to H2 viruses is insufficient to block epidemic spread of H2 virus. An H2N2 pandemic would have lower impact in those born before 1968.
Url:
DOI: 10.1093/infdis/jiy291
PubMed: 29762672
PubMed Central: 6107991
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Ranawaka A P M. Perera<affiliation><nlm:aff id="AF0002">School of Public Health, The University of Hong Kong</nlm:aff>
<wicri:noCountry code="subfield">The University of Hong Kong</wicri:noCountry>
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<affiliation><nlm:aff id="AF0002">School of Public Health, The University of Hong Kong</nlm:aff>
<wicri:noCountry code="subfield">The University of Hong Kong</wicri:noCountry>
</affiliation>
<affiliation><nlm:aff id="AF0002">School of Public Health, The University of Hong Kong</nlm:aff>
<wicri:noCountry code="subfield">The University of Hong Kong</wicri:noCountry>
</affiliation>
<affiliation><nlm:aff id="AF0002">School of Public Health, The University of Hong Kong</nlm:aff>
<wicri:noCountry code="subfield">The University of Hong Kong</wicri:noCountry>
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Le document en format XML
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<sourceDesc><biblStruct><analytic><title xml:lang="en" level="a" type="main">Population Serologic Immunity to Human and Avian H2N2 Viruses in the United States and Hong Kong for Pandemic Risk Assessment</title>
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<author><name sortKey="Wu, Joseph T" sort="Wu, Joseph T" uniqKey="Wu J" first="Joseph T" last="Wu">Joseph T. Wu</name>
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<wicri:noCountry code="subfield">The University of Hong Kong</wicri:noCountry>
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<author><name sortKey="Treanor, John J" sort="Treanor, John J" uniqKey="Treanor J" first="John J" last="Treanor">John J. Treanor</name>
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<series><title level="j">The Journal of Infectious Diseases</title>
<idno type="ISSN">0022-1899</idno>
<idno type="eISSN">1537-6613</idno>
<imprint><date when="2018">2018</date>
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<front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en"><title>Abstract</title>
<sec id="s1"><title>Background</title>
<p>Influenza A pandemics cause significant mortality and morbidity. H2N2 viruses have caused a prior pandemic, and are circulating in avian reservoirs. The age-related frequency of current population immunity to H2 viruses was evaluated.</p>
</sec>
<sec id="s2"><title>Methods</title>
<p>Hemagglutinin inhibition (HAI) assays against historical human and recent avian influenza A(H2N2) viruses were performed across age groups in Rochester, New York, and Hong Kong, China. The impact of existing cross-reactive HAI immunity on the effective reproduction number was modeled.</p>
</sec>
<sec id="s3"><title>Results</title>
<p>One hundred fifty individual sera from Rochester and 295 from Hong Kong were included. Eighty-five percent of patients born in Rochester and Hong Kong before 1968 had HAI titers ≥1:40 against A/Singapore/1/57, and >50% had titers ≥1:40 against A/Berkeley/1/68. The frequency of titers ≥1:40 to avian H2N2 A/mallard/England/727/06 and A/mallard/Netherlands/14/07 in subjects born before 1957 was 62% and 24%, respectively. There were no H2 HAI titers >1:40 in individuals born after 1968. These levels of seroprevalence reduce the initial reproduction number of A/Singapore/1/1957 or A/Berkeley/1/68 by 15%–20%. A basic reproduction number (R<sub>0</sub>
) of the emerging transmissible virus <1.2 predicts a preventable pandemic.</p>
</sec>
<sec id="s4"><title>Conclusions</title>
<p>Population immunity to H2 viruses is insufficient to block epidemic spread of H2 virus. An H2N2 pandemic would have lower impact in those born before 1968.</p>
</sec>
</div>
</front>
</TEI>
<pmc article-type="research-article"><pmc-comment>The publisher of this article does not allow downloading of the full text in XML form.</pmc-comment>
<front><journal-meta><journal-id journal-id-type="nlm-ta">J Infect Dis</journal-id>
<journal-id journal-id-type="iso-abbrev">J. Infect. Dis</journal-id>
<journal-id journal-id-type="publisher-id">jid</journal-id>
<journal-title-group><journal-title>The Journal of Infectious Diseases</journal-title>
</journal-title-group>
<issn pub-type="ppub">0022-1899</issn>
<issn pub-type="epub">1537-6613</issn>
<publisher><publisher-name>Oxford University Press</publisher-name>
<publisher-loc>US</publisher-loc>
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<article-meta><article-id pub-id-type="pmid">29762672</article-id>
<article-id pub-id-type="pmc">6107991</article-id>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.1093/infdis/jiy291</article-id>
<article-id pub-id-type="publisher-id">jiy291</article-id>
<article-categories><subj-group subj-group-type="heading"><subject>Major Articles and Brief Reports</subject>
<subj-group subj-group-type="category-toc-heading"><subject>Viruses</subject>
</subj-group>
</subj-group>
</article-categories>
<title-group><article-title>Population Serologic Immunity to Human and Avian H2N2 Viruses in the United States and Hong Kong for Pandemic Risk Assessment</article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Babu</surname>
<given-names>Tara M</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="AF0001">1</xref>
<xref ref-type="author-notes" rid="fn-0001"></xref>
<xref ref-type="corresp" rid="c1"></xref>
<pmc-comment>tara_babu@urmc.rochester.edu </pmc-comment>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Perera</surname>
<given-names>Ranawaka A P M</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="AF0002">2</xref>
<xref ref-type="author-notes" rid="fn-0001"></xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Wu</surname>
<given-names>Joseph T</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="AF0002">2</xref>
<xref ref-type="author-notes" rid="fn-0001"></xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Fitzgerald</surname>
<given-names>Theresa</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="AF0001">1</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Nolan</surname>
<given-names>Carolyn</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="AF0001">1</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Cowling</surname>
<given-names>Benjamin J</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="AF0002">2</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Krauss</surname>
<given-names>Scott</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="AF0003">3</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Treanor</surname>
<given-names>John J</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="AF0001">1</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Peiris</surname>
<given-names>Malik</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="AF0002">2</xref>
</contrib>
</contrib-group>
<aff id="AF0001"><label>1</label>
Department of Infectious Diseases, University of Rochester Medical Center, New York</aff>
<aff id="AF0002"><label>2</label>
School of Public Health, The University of Hong Kong</aff>
<aff id="AF0003"><label>3</label>
Department of Infectious Diseases, St Jude Children’s Research Hospital, Memphis, Tennessee</aff>
<author-notes><fn id="fn-0001"><p>T. M. B., R. A. P. M. P., and J. T. W. contributed equally to this work.</p>
</fn>
<corresp id="c1">Correspondence: T. Babu, MD, University of Rochester Medical Center, Department of Infectious Diseases, 601 Elmwood Ave, Rochester, NY 14642 (<email>tara_babu@urmc.rochester.edu</email>
).</corresp>
</author-notes>
<pub-date pub-type="ppub"><day>01</day>
<month>10</month>
<year>2018</year>
</pub-date>
<pub-date pub-type="epub" iso-8601-date="2018-05-12"><day>12</day>
<month>5</month>
<year>2018</year>
</pub-date>
<pub-date pub-type="pmc-release"><day>24</day>
<month>8</month>
<year>2019</year>
</pub-date>
<pmc-comment> PMC Release delay is 12 months and
0 days and was based on the . </pmc-comment>
<volume>218</volume>
<issue>7</issue>
<fpage>1054</fpage>
<lpage>1060</lpage>
<history><date date-type="received"><day>23</day>
<month>3</month>
<year>2018</year>
</date>
<date date-type="accepted"><day>11</day>
<month>5</month>
<year>2018</year>
</date>
</history>
<permissions><copyright-statement>© The Author(s) 2018. Published by Oxford University Press for the Infectious Diseases Society of America. All rights reserved. For permissions, e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.</copyright-statement>
<copyright-year>2018</copyright-year>
<license license-type="oup-standard" xlink:href="https://academic.oup.com/journals/pages/open_access/funder_policies/chorus/standard_publication_model"><license-p>This article is published and distributed under the terms of the Oxford University Press, Standard Journals Publication Model (<ext-link ext-link-type="uri" xlink:href="https://academic.oup.com/journals/pages/open_access/funder_policies/chorus/standard_publication_model">https://academic.oup.com/journals/pages/open_access/funder_policies/chorus/standard_publication_model</ext-link>
)</license-p>
</license>
</permissions>
<self-uri xlink:href="jiy291.pdf"></self-uri>
<abstract><title>Abstract</title>
<sec id="s1"><title>Background</title>
<p>Influenza A pandemics cause significant mortality and morbidity. H2N2 viruses have caused a prior pandemic, and are circulating in avian reservoirs. The age-related frequency of current population immunity to H2 viruses was evaluated.</p>
</sec>
<sec id="s2"><title>Methods</title>
<p>Hemagglutinin inhibition (HAI) assays against historical human and recent avian influenza A(H2N2) viruses were performed across age groups in Rochester, New York, and Hong Kong, China. The impact of existing cross-reactive HAI immunity on the effective reproduction number was modeled.</p>
</sec>
<sec id="s3"><title>Results</title>
<p>One hundred fifty individual sera from Rochester and 295 from Hong Kong were included. Eighty-five percent of patients born in Rochester and Hong Kong before 1968 had HAI titers ≥1:40 against A/Singapore/1/57, and >50% had titers ≥1:40 against A/Berkeley/1/68. The frequency of titers ≥1:40 to avian H2N2 A/mallard/England/727/06 and A/mallard/Netherlands/14/07 in subjects born before 1957 was 62% and 24%, respectively. There were no H2 HAI titers >1:40 in individuals born after 1968. These levels of seroprevalence reduce the initial reproduction number of A/Singapore/1/1957 or A/Berkeley/1/68 by 15%–20%. A basic reproduction number (R<sub>0</sub>
) of the emerging transmissible virus <1.2 predicts a preventable pandemic.</p>
</sec>
<sec id="s4"><title>Conclusions</title>
<p>Population immunity to H2 viruses is insufficient to block epidemic spread of H2 virus. An H2N2 pandemic would have lower impact in those born before 1968.</p>
</sec>
</abstract>
<abstract abstract-type="teaser"><p>Mathematical modeling was performed, using population immunity against candidate pandemic H2 influenza strains, to predict risk for pandemic infection. Population immunity is insufficient to block epidemic spread of H2 virus, but would have lower impact in those born before 1968.</p>
</abstract>
<kwd-group><kwd>H2</kwd>
<kwd>influenza</kwd>
<kwd>serology</kwd>
<kwd>effective reproduction number</kwd>
<kwd>pandemic risk assessment</kwd>
</kwd-group>
<funding-group><award-group award-type="grant"><funding-source><named-content content-type="funder-name">National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases</named-content>
<named-content content-type="funder-identifier">10.13039/100000060</named-content>
</funding-source>
<award-id>HHSN272201400006C</award-id>
</award-group>
<award-group award-type="grant"><funding-source><named-content content-type="funder-name">National Institutes of Health</named-content>
<named-content content-type="funder-identifier">10.13039/100000002</named-content>
</funding-source>
</award-group>
<award-group award-type="grant"><funding-source><named-content content-type="funder-name">National Institute of General Medical Sciences</named-content>
<named-content content-type="funder-identifier">10.13039/100000057</named-content>
</funding-source>
<award-id>U54GM088558</award-id>
</award-group>
</funding-group>
<counts><page-count count="7"></page-count>
</counts>
</article-meta>
</front>
</pmc>
</record>
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