Estimates of the reproduction number for seasonal, pandemic, and zoonotic influenza: a systematic review of the literature
Identifieur interne : 000160 ( Pmc/Curation ); précédent : 000159; suivant : 000161Estimates of the reproduction number for seasonal, pandemic, and zoonotic influenza: a systematic review of the literature
Auteurs : Matthew Biggerstaff [Géorgie (pays)] ; Simon Cauchemez [France] ; Carrie Reed [Géorgie (pays)] ; Manoj Gambhir [Géorgie (pays)] ; Lyn Finelli [Géorgie (pays)]Source :
- BMC Infectious Diseases [ 1471-2334 ] ; 2014.
Abstract
The potential impact of an influenza pandemic can be assessed by calculating a set of transmissibility parameters, the most important being the reproduction number (R), which is defined as the average number of secondary cases generated per typical infectious case.
We conducted a systematic review to summarize published estimates of R for pandemic or seasonal influenza and for novel influenza viruses (e.g. H5N1). We retained and summarized papers that estimated R for pandemic or seasonal influenza or for human infections with novel influenza viruses.
The search yielded 567 papers. Ninety-one papers were retained, and an additional twenty papers were identified from the references of the retained papers. Twenty-four studies reported 51 R values for the 1918 pandemic. The median R value for 1918 was 1.80 (interquartile range [IQR]: 1.47–2.27). Six studies reported seven 1957 pandemic R values. The median R value for 1957 was 1.65 (IQR: 1.53–1.70). Four studies reported seven 1968 pandemic R values. The median R value for 1968 was 1.80 (IQR: 1.56–1.85). Fifty-seven studies reported 78 2009 pandemic R values. The median R value for 2009 was 1.46 (IQR: 1.30–1.70) and was similar across the two waves of illness: 1.46 for the first wave and 1.48 for the second wave. Twenty-four studies reported 47 seasonal epidemic R values. The median R value for seasonal influenza was 1.28 (IQR: 1.19–1.37). Four studies reported six novel influenza R values. Four out of six R values were <1.
These R values represent the difference between epidemics that are controllable and cause moderate illness and those causing a significant number of illnesses and requiring intensive mitigation strategies to control. Continued monitoring of R during seasonal and novel influenza outbreaks is needed to document its variation before the next pandemic.
The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/1471-2334-14-480) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.
Url:
DOI: 10.1186/1471-2334-14-480
PubMed: 25186370
PubMed Central: 4169819
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<front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en"><sec><title>Background</title>
<p>The potential impact of an influenza pandemic can be assessed by calculating a set of transmissibility parameters, the most important being the reproduction number (R), which is defined as the average number of secondary cases generated per typical infectious case.</p>
</sec>
<sec><title>Methods</title>
<p>We conducted a systematic review to summarize published estimates of R for pandemic or seasonal influenza and for novel influenza viruses (e.g. H5N1). We retained and summarized papers that estimated R for pandemic or seasonal influenza or for human infections with novel influenza viruses.</p>
</sec>
<sec><title>Results</title>
<p>The search yielded 567 papers. Ninety-one papers were retained, and an additional twenty papers were identified from the references of the retained papers. Twenty-four studies reported 51 R values for the 1918 pandemic. The median R value for 1918 was 1.80 (interquartile range [IQR]: 1.47–2.27). Six studies reported seven 1957 pandemic R values. The median R value for 1957 was 1.65 (IQR: 1.53–1.70). Four studies reported seven 1968 pandemic R values. The median R value for 1968 was 1.80 (IQR: 1.56–1.85). Fifty-seven studies reported 78 2009 pandemic R values. The median R value for 2009 was 1.46 (IQR: 1.30–1.70) and was similar across the two waves of illness: 1.46 for the first wave and 1.48 for the second wave. Twenty-four studies reported 47 seasonal epidemic R values. The median R value for seasonal influenza was 1.28 (IQR: 1.19–1.37). Four studies reported six novel influenza R values. Four out of six R values were <1.</p>
</sec>
<sec><title>Conclusions</title>
<p>These R values represent the difference between epidemics that are controllable and cause moderate illness and those causing a significant number of illnesses and requiring intensive mitigation strategies to control. Continued monitoring of R during seasonal and novel influenza outbreaks is needed to document its variation before the next pandemic.</p>
</sec>
<sec><title>Electronic supplementary material</title>
<p>The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/1471-2334-14-480) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.</p>
</sec>
</div>
</front>
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<pmc article-type="research-article"><pmc-dir>properties open_access</pmc-dir>
<front><journal-meta><journal-id journal-id-type="nlm-ta">BMC Infect Dis</journal-id>
<journal-id journal-id-type="iso-abbrev">BMC Infect. Dis</journal-id>
<journal-title-group><journal-title>BMC Infectious Diseases</journal-title>
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<issn pub-type="epub">1471-2334</issn>
<publisher><publisher-name>BioMed Central</publisher-name>
<publisher-loc>London</publisher-loc>
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<article-meta><article-id pub-id-type="pmid">25186370</article-id>
<article-id pub-id-type="pmc">4169819</article-id>
<article-id pub-id-type="publisher-id">3799</article-id>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.1186/1471-2334-14-480</article-id>
<article-categories><subj-group subj-group-type="heading"><subject>Research Article</subject>
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</article-categories>
<title-group><article-title>Estimates of the reproduction number for seasonal, pandemic, and zoonotic influenza: a systematic review of the literature</article-title>
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<contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes"><name><surname>Biggerstaff</surname>
<given-names>Matthew</given-names>
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<given-names>Simon</given-names>
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<address><email>simon.cauchemez@pasteur.fr</email>
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<given-names>Carrie</given-names>
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<aff id="Aff1"><label></label>
Epidemiology and Prevention Branch, Influenza Division, National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, 1600 Clifton Road NE, MS A-32, Atlanta, 30333 Georgia</aff>
<aff id="Aff2"><label></label>
Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases Unit, Institut Pasteur, Paris, France</aff>
<aff id="Aff3"><label></label>
National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases, CDC, Atlanta, Georgia</aff>
</contrib-group>
<pub-date pub-type="epub"><day>4</day>
<month>9</month>
<year>2014</year>
</pub-date>
<pub-date pub-type="pmc-release"><day>4</day>
<month>9</month>
<year>2014</year>
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<pub-date pub-type="collection"><year>2014</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>14</volume>
<elocation-id>480</elocation-id>
<history><date date-type="received"><day>11</day>
<month>4</month>
<year>2014</year>
</date>
<date date-type="accepted"><day>28</day>
<month>8</month>
<year>2014</year>
</date>
</history>
<permissions><copyright-statement>© Biggerstaff et al.; licensee BioMed Central Ltd. 2014</copyright-statement>
<license license-type="open-access"><license-p>This article is published under license to BioMed Central Ltd. This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (<ext-link ext-link-type="uri" xlink:href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0">http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0</ext-link>
), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly credited. The Creative Commons Public Domain Dedication waiver (<ext-link ext-link-type="uri" xlink:href="http://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/">http://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/</ext-link>
) applies to the data made available in this article, unless otherwise stated.</license-p>
</license>
</permissions>
<abstract id="Abs1"><sec><title>Background</title>
<p>The potential impact of an influenza pandemic can be assessed by calculating a set of transmissibility parameters, the most important being the reproduction number (R), which is defined as the average number of secondary cases generated per typical infectious case.</p>
</sec>
<sec><title>Methods</title>
<p>We conducted a systematic review to summarize published estimates of R for pandemic or seasonal influenza and for novel influenza viruses (e.g. H5N1). We retained and summarized papers that estimated R for pandemic or seasonal influenza or for human infections with novel influenza viruses.</p>
</sec>
<sec><title>Results</title>
<p>The search yielded 567 papers. Ninety-one papers were retained, and an additional twenty papers were identified from the references of the retained papers. Twenty-four studies reported 51 R values for the 1918 pandemic. The median R value for 1918 was 1.80 (interquartile range [IQR]: 1.47–2.27). Six studies reported seven 1957 pandemic R values. The median R value for 1957 was 1.65 (IQR: 1.53–1.70). Four studies reported seven 1968 pandemic R values. The median R value for 1968 was 1.80 (IQR: 1.56–1.85). Fifty-seven studies reported 78 2009 pandemic R values. The median R value for 2009 was 1.46 (IQR: 1.30–1.70) and was similar across the two waves of illness: 1.46 for the first wave and 1.48 for the second wave. Twenty-four studies reported 47 seasonal epidemic R values. The median R value for seasonal influenza was 1.28 (IQR: 1.19–1.37). Four studies reported six novel influenza R values. Four out of six R values were <1.</p>
</sec>
<sec><title>Conclusions</title>
<p>These R values represent the difference between epidemics that are controllable and cause moderate illness and those causing a significant number of illnesses and requiring intensive mitigation strategies to control. Continued monitoring of R during seasonal and novel influenza outbreaks is needed to document its variation before the next pandemic.</p>
</sec>
<sec><title>Electronic supplementary material</title>
<p>The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/1471-2334-14-480) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.</p>
</sec>
</abstract>
<kwd-group xml:lang="en"><title>Keywords</title>
<kwd>Reproductive number</kwd>
<kwd>Influenza</kwd>
<kwd>Pandemics</kwd>
<kwd>Zoonotic influenza</kwd>
</kwd-group>
<custom-meta-group><custom-meta><meta-name>issue-copyright-statement</meta-name>
<meta-value>© The Author(s) 2014</meta-value>
</custom-meta>
</custom-meta-group>
</article-meta>
</front>
</pmc>
</record>
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