Initial human transmission dynamics of the pandemic (H1N1) 2009 virus in North America
Identifieur interne : 000066 ( Pmc/Curation ); précédent : 000065; suivant : 000067Initial human transmission dynamics of the pandemic (H1N1) 2009 virus in North America
Auteurs : Babak Pourbohloul ; Armando Ahued ; Bahman Davoudi ; Rafael Meza ; Lauren A. Meyers ; Danuta M. Skowronski ; Ignacio Villase Or ; Fernando Galván ; Patricia Cravioto ; David J. D. Earn ; Jonathan Dushoff ; David Fisman ; W. John Edmunds ; Nathaniel Hupert ; Samuel V. Scarpino ; Jesús Trujillo ; Miguel Lutzow ; Jorge Morales ; Ada Contreras ; Carolina Chávez ; David M. Patrick ; Robert C. BrunhamSource :
- Influenza and Other Respiratory Viruses [ 1750-2640 ] ; 2009.
Abstract
Url:
DOI: 10.1111/j.1750-2659.2009.00100.x
PubMed: 19702583
PubMed Central: 3122129
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<author><name sortKey="Fisman, David" sort="Fisman, David" uniqKey="Fisman D" first="David" last="Fisman">David Fisman</name>
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<author><name sortKey="Scarpino, Samuel V" sort="Scarpino, Samuel V" uniqKey="Scarpino S" first="Samuel V." last="Scarpino">Samuel V. Scarpino</name>
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<author><name sortKey="Trujillo, Jesus" sort="Trujillo, Jesus" uniqKey="Trujillo J" first="Jesús" last="Trujillo">Jesús Trujillo</name>
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<author><name sortKey="Morales, Jorge" sort="Morales, Jorge" uniqKey="Morales J" first="Jorge" last="Morales">Jorge Morales</name>
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<author><name sortKey="Contreras, Ada" sort="Contreras, Ada" uniqKey="Contreras A" first="Ada" last="Contreras">Ada Contreras</name>
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<author><name sortKey="Chavez, Carolina" sort="Chavez, Carolina" uniqKey="Chavez C" first="Carolina" last="Chávez">Carolina Chávez</name>
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<sourceDesc><biblStruct><analytic><title xml:lang="en" level="a" type="main">Initial human transmission dynamics of the pandemic (H1N1) 2009 virus in North America</title>
<author><name sortKey="Pourbohloul, Babak" sort="Pourbohloul, Babak" uniqKey="Pourbohloul B" first="Babak" last="Pourbohloul">Babak Pourbohloul</name>
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<author><name sortKey="Ahued, Armando" sort="Ahued, Armando" uniqKey="Ahued A" first="Armando" last="Ahued">Armando Ahued</name>
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<author><name sortKey="Davoudi, Bahman" sort="Davoudi, Bahman" uniqKey="Davoudi B" first="Bahman" last="Davoudi">Bahman Davoudi</name>
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<author><name sortKey="Meza, Rafael" sort="Meza, Rafael" uniqKey="Meza R" first="Rafael" last="Meza">Rafael Meza</name>
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<author><name sortKey="Meyers, Lauren A" sort="Meyers, Lauren A" uniqKey="Meyers L" first="Lauren A." last="Meyers">Lauren A. Meyers</name>
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</affiliation>
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<author><name sortKey="Skowronski, Danuta M" sort="Skowronski, Danuta M" uniqKey="Skowronski D" first="Danuta M." last="Skowronski">Danuta M. Skowronski</name>
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</affiliation>
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<author><name sortKey="Villase Or, Ignacio" sort="Villase Or, Ignacio" uniqKey="Villase Or I" first="Ignacio" last="Villase Or">Ignacio Villase Or</name>
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</affiliation>
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<author><name sortKey="Galvan, Fernando" sort="Galvan, Fernando" uniqKey="Galvan F" first="Fernando" last="Galván">Fernando Galván</name>
<affiliation><nlm:aff id="a6"></nlm:aff>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Cravioto, Patricia" sort="Cravioto, Patricia" uniqKey="Cravioto P" first="Patricia" last="Cravioto">Patricia Cravioto</name>
<affiliation><nlm:aff id="a3"></nlm:aff>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Earn, David J D" sort="Earn, David J D" uniqKey="Earn D" first="David J. D." last="Earn">David J. D. Earn</name>
<affiliation><nlm:aff id="a7"></nlm:aff>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Dushoff, Jonathan" sort="Dushoff, Jonathan" uniqKey="Dushoff J" first="Jonathan" last="Dushoff">Jonathan Dushoff</name>
<affiliation><nlm:aff id="a7"></nlm:aff>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Fisman, David" sort="Fisman, David" uniqKey="Fisman D" first="David" last="Fisman">David Fisman</name>
<affiliation><nlm:aff id="a8"></nlm:aff>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Edmunds, W John" sort="Edmunds, W John" uniqKey="Edmunds W" first="W. John" last="Edmunds">W. John Edmunds</name>
<affiliation><nlm:aff id="a9"></nlm:aff>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Hupert, Nathaniel" sort="Hupert, Nathaniel" uniqKey="Hupert N" first="Nathaniel" last="Hupert">Nathaniel Hupert</name>
<affiliation><nlm:aff id="a10"></nlm:aff>
</affiliation>
<affiliation><nlm:aff id="a11"></nlm:aff>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Scarpino, Samuel V" sort="Scarpino, Samuel V" uniqKey="Scarpino S" first="Samuel V." last="Scarpino">Samuel V. Scarpino</name>
<affiliation><nlm:aff id="a4"></nlm:aff>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Trujillo, Jesus" sort="Trujillo, Jesus" uniqKey="Trujillo J" first="Jesús" last="Trujillo">Jesús Trujillo</name>
<affiliation><nlm:aff id="a3"></nlm:aff>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Lutzow, Miguel" sort="Lutzow, Miguel" uniqKey="Lutzow M" first="Miguel" last="Lutzow">Miguel Lutzow</name>
<affiliation><nlm:aff id="a3"></nlm:aff>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Morales, Jorge" sort="Morales, Jorge" uniqKey="Morales J" first="Jorge" last="Morales">Jorge Morales</name>
<affiliation><nlm:aff id="a3"></nlm:aff>
</affiliation>
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<author><name sortKey="Contreras, Ada" sort="Contreras, Ada" uniqKey="Contreras A" first="Ada" last="Contreras">Ada Contreras</name>
<affiliation><nlm:aff id="a3"></nlm:aff>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Chavez, Carolina" sort="Chavez, Carolina" uniqKey="Chavez C" first="Carolina" last="Chávez">Carolina Chávez</name>
<affiliation><nlm:aff id="a3"></nlm:aff>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Patrick, David M" sort="Patrick, David M" uniqKey="Patrick D" first="David M." last="Patrick">David M. Patrick</name>
<affiliation><nlm:aff id="a5"></nlm:aff>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Brunham, Robert C" sort="Brunham, Robert C" uniqKey="Brunham R" first="Robert C." last="Brunham">Robert C. Brunham</name>
<affiliation><nlm:aff id="a1"></nlm:aff>
</affiliation>
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</analytic>
<series><title level="j">Influenza and Other Respiratory Viruses</title>
<idno type="ISSN">1750-2640</idno>
<idno type="eISSN">1750-2659</idno>
<imprint><date when="2009">2009</date>
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<front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en"><p><bold>Background </bold>
Between 5 and 25 April 2009, pandemic (H1N1) 2009 caused a substantial, severe outbreak in Mexico, and subsequently developed into the first global pandemic in 41 years. We determined the reproduction number of pandemic (H1N1) 2009 by analyzing the dynamics of the complete case series in Mexico City during this early period.</p>
<p><bold>Methods </bold>
We analyzed three mutually exclusive datasets from Mexico City <italic>Distrito Federal</italic>
which constituted all suspect cases from 15 March to 25 April: confirmed pandemic (H1N1) 2009 infections, non‐pandemic influenza A infections and patients who tested negative for influenza. We estimated the initial reproduction number from 497 suspect cases identified prior to 20 April, using a novel contact network methodology incorporating dates of symptom onset and hospitalization, variation in contact rates, extrinsic sociological factors, and uncertainties in underreporting and disease progression. We tested the robustness of this estimate using both the subset of laboratory‐confirmed pandemic (H1N1) 2009 infections and an extended case series through 25 April, adjusted for suspected ascertainment bias.</p>
<p><bold>Results </bold>
The initial reproduction number (95% confidence interval range) for this novel virus is 1·51 (1·32–1·71) based on suspected cases and 1·43 (1·29–1·57) based on confirmed cases before 20 April. The longer time series (through 25 April) yielded a higher estimate of 2·04 (1·84–2·25), which reduced to 1·44 (1·38–1·51) after correction for ascertainment bias.</p>
<p><bold>Conclusions </bold>
The estimated transmission characteristics of pandemic (H1N1) 2009 suggest that pharmaceutical and non‐pharmaceutical mitigation measures may appreciably limit its spread prior the development of an effective vaccine.</p>
</div>
</front>
<back><div1 type="bibliography"><listBibl><biblStruct></biblStruct>
<biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Nicholson, Kg" uniqKey="Nicholson K">KG Nicholson</name>
</author>
</analytic>
</biblStruct>
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<biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Nicholson, Kg" uniqKey="Nicholson K">KG Nicholson</name>
</author>
</analytic>
</biblStruct>
<biblStruct></biblStruct>
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<pmc article-type="research-article"><pmc-dir>properties open_access</pmc-dir>
<front><journal-meta><journal-id journal-id-type="nlm-ta">Influenza Other Respir Viruses</journal-id>
<journal-id journal-id-type="iso-abbrev">Influenza Other Respir Viruses</journal-id>
<journal-id journal-id-type="doi">10.1111/(ISSN)1750-2659</journal-id>
<journal-id journal-id-type="publisher-id">IRV</journal-id>
<journal-title-group><journal-title>Influenza and Other Respiratory Viruses</journal-title>
</journal-title-group>
<issn pub-type="ppub">1750-2640</issn>
<issn pub-type="epub">1750-2659</issn>
<publisher><publisher-name>Blackwell Publishing Ltd</publisher-name>
<publisher-loc>Oxford, UK</publisher-loc>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta><article-id pub-id-type="pmid">19702583</article-id>
<article-id pub-id-type="pmc">3122129</article-id>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.1111/j.1750-2659.2009.00100.x</article-id>
<article-id pub-id-type="publisher-id">IRV100</article-id>
<article-categories><subj-group subj-group-type="heading"><subject>Original Articles</subject>
</subj-group>
</article-categories>
<title-group><article-title>Initial human transmission dynamics of the pandemic (H1N1) 2009 virus in North America</article-title>
<alt-title alt-title-type="left-running-head">Pourbohloul <italic>et al.</italic>
</alt-title>
<alt-title alt-title-type="right-running-head">Pandemic (H1N1) 2009 Transmission Dynamics</alt-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group><contrib id="cr1" contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Pourbohloul</surname>
<given-names>Babak</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="a1"><sup>1</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="a2"><sup>2</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib id="cr2" contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Ahued</surname>
<given-names>Armando</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="a3"><sup>3</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib id="cr3" contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Davoudi</surname>
<given-names>Bahman</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="a1"><sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib id="cr4" contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Meza</surname>
<given-names>Rafael</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="a1"><sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib id="cr5" contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Meyers</surname>
<given-names>Lauren A.</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="a4"><sup>4</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib id="cr6" contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Skowronski</surname>
<given-names>Danuta M.</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="a5"><sup>5</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib id="cr7" contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Villaseñor</surname>
<given-names>Ignacio</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="a3"><sup>3</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib id="cr8" contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Galván</surname>
<given-names>Fernando</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="a6"><sup>6</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib id="cr9" contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Cravioto</surname>
<given-names>Patricia</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="a3"><sup>3</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib id="cr10" contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Earn</surname>
<given-names>David J. D.</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="a7"><sup>7</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib id="cr11" contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Dushoff</surname>
<given-names>Jonathan</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="a7"><sup>7</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib id="cr12" contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Fisman</surname>
<given-names>David</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="a8"><sup>8</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib id="cr13" contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Edmunds</surname>
<given-names>W. John</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="a9"><sup>9</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib id="cr14" contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Hupert</surname>
<given-names>Nathaniel</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="a10"><sup>10</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="a11"><sup>11</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib id="cr15" contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Scarpino</surname>
<given-names>Samuel V.</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="a4"><sup>4</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib id="cr16" contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Trujillo</surname>
<given-names>Jesús</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="a3"><sup>3</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib id="cr17" contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Lutzow</surname>
<given-names>Miguel</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="a3"><sup>3</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib id="cr18" contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Morales</surname>
<given-names>Jorge</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="a3"><sup>3</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib id="cr19" contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Contreras</surname>
<given-names>Ada</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="a3"><sup>3</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib id="cr20" contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Chávez</surname>
<given-names>Carolina</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="a3"><sup>3</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib id="cr21" contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Patrick</surname>
<given-names>David M.</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="a5"><sup>5</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib id="cr22" contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Brunham</surname>
<given-names>Robert C.</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="a1"><sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
</contrib-group>
<aff id="a1"><label><sup>1</sup>
</label>
Division of Mathematical Modeling, British Columbia Centre for Disease Control, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada</aff>
<aff id="a2"><label><sup>2</sup>
</label>
School of Population & Public Health, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada</aff>
<aff id="a3"><label><sup>3</sup>
</label>
Secretaría de Salud del Distrito Federal, D.F., México</aff>
<aff id="a4"><label><sup>4</sup>
</label>
Section of Integrative Biology, University of Texas at Austin, Austin, TX, USA</aff>
<aff id="a5"><label><sup>5</sup>
</label>
Division of Epidemiology Services, British Columbia Centre for Disease Control, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada</aff>
<aff id="a6"><label><sup>6</sup>
</label>
General Directorate of Epidemiology, Secretaria de Salud, México</aff>
<aff id="a7"><label><sup>7</sup>
</label>
Department of Mathematics & Statistics, McMaster University, Hamilton, Ontario, Canada</aff>
<aff id="a8"><label><sup>8</sup>
</label>
University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario, Canada</aff>
<aff id="a9"><label><sup>9</sup>
</label>
London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, University of London, London, UK</aff>
<aff id="a10"><label><sup>10</sup>
</label>
Weill Cornell Medical College, New York, NY, USA</aff>
<aff id="a11"><label><sup>11</sup>
</label>
Preparedness Modeling Unit, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, GA, USA</aff>
<author-notes><corresp id="correspondenceTo">Babak Pourbohloul, PhD, Division of Mathematical Modeling, British Columbia Centre for Disease Control, 655 West 12th Avenue, Vancouver, BC, Canada V5Z 4R4. E‐mail: <email>babak.pourbohloul@bccdc.ca</email>
</corresp>
</author-notes>
<pub-date pub-type="epub"><day>18</day>
<month>8</month>
<year>2009</year>
</pub-date>
<pub-date pub-type="ppub"><month>9</month>
<year>2009</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>3</volume>
<issue>5</issue>
<issue-id pub-id-type="doi">10.1111/irv.2009.3.issue-5</issue-id>
<fpage>215</fpage>
<lpage>222</lpage>
<history>Accepted 26 July 2009. Published Online 18 August 2009.</history>
<permissions><copyright-statement content-type="article-copyright">© 2009 Blackwell Publishing Ltd</copyright-statement>
</permissions>
<self-uri content-type="pdf" xlink:type="simple" xlink:href="file:IRV-3-215.pdf"></self-uri>
<abstract><p><bold>Background </bold>
Between 5 and 25 April 2009, pandemic (H1N1) 2009 caused a substantial, severe outbreak in Mexico, and subsequently developed into the first global pandemic in 41 years. We determined the reproduction number of pandemic (H1N1) 2009 by analyzing the dynamics of the complete case series in Mexico City during this early period.</p>
<p><bold>Methods </bold>
We analyzed three mutually exclusive datasets from Mexico City <italic>Distrito Federal</italic>
which constituted all suspect cases from 15 March to 25 April: confirmed pandemic (H1N1) 2009 infections, non‐pandemic influenza A infections and patients who tested negative for influenza. We estimated the initial reproduction number from 497 suspect cases identified prior to 20 April, using a novel contact network methodology incorporating dates of symptom onset and hospitalization, variation in contact rates, extrinsic sociological factors, and uncertainties in underreporting and disease progression. We tested the robustness of this estimate using both the subset of laboratory‐confirmed pandemic (H1N1) 2009 infections and an extended case series through 25 April, adjusted for suspected ascertainment bias.</p>
<p><bold>Results </bold>
The initial reproduction number (95% confidence interval range) for this novel virus is 1·51 (1·32–1·71) based on suspected cases and 1·43 (1·29–1·57) based on confirmed cases before 20 April. The longer time series (through 25 April) yielded a higher estimate of 2·04 (1·84–2·25), which reduced to 1·44 (1·38–1·51) after correction for ascertainment bias.</p>
<p><bold>Conclusions </bold>
The estimated transmission characteristics of pandemic (H1N1) 2009 suggest that pharmaceutical and non‐pharmaceutical mitigation measures may appreciably limit its spread prior the development of an effective vaccine.</p>
</abstract>
<kwd-group><kwd id="k1">Epidemiologic methods</kwd>
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<kwd id="k4">initial reproduction number</kwd>
<kwd id="k5">pandemic</kwd>
</kwd-group>
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