H2N2V1, PascalFrancis, Curation, bibRecord, 000041

An exploratory method for estimating the changing speed of epidemic waves from historical data : Communicable disease

Identifieur interne : 000041 ( PascalFrancis/Curation ); précédent : 000040; suivant : 000042

An exploratory method for estimating the changing speed of epidemic waves from historical data : Communicable disease

Auteurs : Andrew D. Cliff [Royaume-Uni] ; Peter Haggett [Royaume-Uni] ; Matthew Smallman-Raynor [Royaume-Uni]

Source :

International journal of epidemiology [ 0300-5771 ] ; 2008.

RBID : Pascal:08-0163570

Descripteurs français

Pascal (Inist)
- Grippe, Epidémiologie, Vitesse propagation, Islande, Historique, Méthode, Estimation, Homme, Pandémie.
Wicri :
- geographic : Islande.
- topic : Historique, Homme.

English descriptors

KwdEn :
- Case history, Epidemiology, Estimation, Human, Iceland, Influenza, Method, Pandemic, Propagation velocity.

Abstract

Background Historical data are necessary to establish long-term trends in disease incidence but pose analytical problems since their accuracy and reliability may be poorly specified. Methods A robust measure of the spatial velocity, R_0A, of epidemic waves from space-time series is proposed using binary data. The method was applied to the historical records of influenza morbidity for the island of Iceland over a 61-year period of influenza seasons from 1915-16 to 1975-76. Results The onset of influenza waves tended to speed up over the period studied and the three pandemic waves associated with viral shifts in influenza A [Spanish influenza H₁N₁ (1918-19), Asian influenza H₂N₂ (1957-58) and Hong Kong influenza H₃N₂ (1968-69)] spread more rapidly around the island and struck earlier in the influenza season than did inter-pandemic waves, even when the latter were equally intensive as measured by total number of cases and case incidence. Discussion The potential for using R_0A in a real-time context is explored using French influenza data. Conclusions The new measure of wave velocity appears to be applicable to those historical time series where breakdown into regional or local areas is available. The study is being extended to (i) other countries where similar influenza time series are available and (ii) to other diseases within Iceland.

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C01	`01`		`ENG`	@0 Background Historical data are necessary to establish long-term trends in disease incidence but pose analytical problems since their accuracy and reliability may be poorly specified. Methods A robust measure of the spatial velocity, R_0A, of epidemic waves from space-time series is proposed using binary data. The method was applied to the historical records of influenza morbidity for the island of Iceland over a 61-year period of influenza seasons from 1915-16 to 1975-76. Results The onset of influenza waves tended to speed up over the period studied and the three pandemic waves associated with viral shifts in influenza A [Spanish influenza H₁N₁ (1918-19), Asian influenza H₂N₂ (1957-58) and Hong Kong influenza H₃N₂ (1968-69)] spread more rapidly around the island and struck earlier in the influenza season than did inter-pandemic waves, even when the latter were equally intensive as measured by total number of cases and case incidence. Discussion The potential for using R_0A in a real-time context is explored using French influenza data. Conclusions The new measure of wave velocity appears to be applicable to those historical time series where breakdown into regional or local areas is available. The study is being extended to (i) other countries where similar influenza time series are available and (ii) to other diseases within Iceland.
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<front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en">Background Historical data are necessary to establish long-term trends in disease incidence but pose analytical problems since their accuracy and reliability may be poorly specified. Methods A robust measure of the spatial velocity, R<sub>0A</sub>
, of epidemic waves from space-time series is proposed using binary data. The method was applied to the historical records of influenza morbidity for the island of Iceland over a 61-year period of influenza seasons from 1915-16 to 1975-76. Results The onset of influenza waves tended to speed up over the period studied and the three pandemic waves associated with viral shifts in influenza A [Spanish influenza H<sub>1</sub>
N<sub>1</sub>
 (1918-19), Asian influenza H<sub>2</sub>
N<sub>2</sub>
 (1957-58) and Hong Kong influenza H<sub>3</sub>
N<sub>2</sub>
 (1968-69)] spread more rapidly around the island and struck earlier in the influenza season than did inter-pandemic waves, even when the latter were equally intensive as measured by total number of cases and case incidence. Discussion The potential for using R<sub>0A</sub>
 in a real-time context is explored using French influenza data. Conclusions The new measure of wave velocity appears to be applicable to those historical time series where breakdown into regional or local areas is available. The study is being extended to (i) other countries where similar influenza time series are available and (ii) to other diseases within Iceland.</div>
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N<sub>1</sub>
 (1918-19), Asian influenza H<sub>2</sub>
N<sub>2</sub>
 (1957-58) and Hong Kong influenza H<sub>3</sub>
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 (1968-69)] spread more rapidly around the island and struck earlier in the influenza season than did inter-pandemic waves, even when the latter were equally intensive as measured by total number of cases and case incidence. Discussion The potential for using R<sub>0A</sub>
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An exploratory method for estimating the changing speed of epidemic waves from historical data : Communicable disease

An exploratory method for estimating the changing speed of epidemic waves from historical data : Communicable disease

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