Transmissibility of 1918 pandemic influenza
Identifieur interne : 000116 ( Ncbi/Curation ); précédent : 000115; suivant : 000117Transmissibility of 1918 pandemic influenza
Auteurs : Christina E. Mills [États-Unis] ; James M. Robins [États-Unis] ; Marc Lipsitch [États-Unis]Source :
- Nature [ 0028-0836 ] ; 2004.
Abstract
The 1918 influenza pandemic killed 20–40 million people worldwide
The online version of this article (doi:10.1038/nature03063) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.
Url:
DOI: 10.1038/nature03063
PubMed: 15602562
PubMed Central: 7095078
Links toward previous steps (curation, corpus...)
- to stream Pmc, to step Corpus: Pour aller vers cette notice dans l'étape Curation :000190
- to stream Pmc, to step Curation: Pour aller vers cette notice dans l'étape Curation :000190
- to stream Pmc, to step Checkpoint: Pour aller vers cette notice dans l'étape Curation :000C38
- to stream Ncbi, to step Merge: Pour aller vers cette notice dans l'étape Curation :000116
Links to Exploration step
PMC:7095078Le document en format XML
<record><TEI><teiHeader><fileDesc><titleStmt><title xml:lang="en">Transmissibility of 1918 pandemic influenza</title><author><name sortKey="Mills, Christina E" sort="Mills, Christina E" uniqKey="Mills C" first="Christina E." last="Mills">Christina E. Mills</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="Aff1"><institution-wrap><institution-id institution-id-type="GRID">grid.38142.3c</institution-id><institution-id institution-id-type="ISNI">000000041936754X</institution-id><institution>Department of Epidemiology,</institution><institution>Harvard School of Public Health,</institution></institution-wrap>677 Huntington Avenue, Massachusetts 02115 Boston, USA</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country><wicri:regionArea>677 Huntington Avenue, Massachusetts 02115 Boston</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Massachusetts 02115 Boston</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Robins, James M" sort="Robins, James M" uniqKey="Robins J" first="James M." last="Robins">James M. Robins</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="Aff1"><institution-wrap><institution-id institution-id-type="GRID">grid.38142.3c</institution-id><institution-id institution-id-type="ISNI">000000041936754X</institution-id><institution>Department of Epidemiology,</institution><institution>Harvard School of Public Health,</institution></institution-wrap>677 Huntington Avenue, Massachusetts 02115 Boston, USA</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country><wicri:regionArea>677 Huntington Avenue, Massachusetts 02115 Boston</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Massachusetts 02115 Boston</wicri:noRegion></affiliation><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="Aff2"><institution-wrap><institution-id institution-id-type="GRID">grid.38142.3c</institution-id><institution-id institution-id-type="ISNI">000000041936754X</institution-id><institution>Department of Biostatistics,</institution><institution>Harvard School of Public Health,</institution></institution-wrap>677 Huntington Avenue, Massachusetts 02115 Boston, USA</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country><wicri:regionArea>677 Huntington Avenue, Massachusetts 02115 Boston</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Massachusetts 02115 Boston</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Lipsitch, Marc" sort="Lipsitch, Marc" uniqKey="Lipsitch M" first="Marc" last="Lipsitch">Marc Lipsitch</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="Aff1"><institution-wrap><institution-id institution-id-type="GRID">grid.38142.3c</institution-id><institution-id institution-id-type="ISNI">000000041936754X</institution-id><institution>Department of Epidemiology,</institution><institution>Harvard School of Public Health,</institution></institution-wrap>677 Huntington Avenue, Massachusetts 02115 Boston, USA</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country><wicri:regionArea>677 Huntington Avenue, Massachusetts 02115 Boston</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Massachusetts 02115 Boston</wicri:noRegion></affiliation><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="Aff3"><institution-wrap><institution-id institution-id-type="GRID">grid.38142.3c</institution-id><institution-id institution-id-type="ISNI">000000041936754X</institution-id><institution>Department of Immunology and Infectious Diseases,</institution><institution>Harvard School of Public Health,</institution></institution-wrap>677 Huntington Avenue, Massachusetts 02115 Boston, USA</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country><wicri:regionArea>677 Huntington Avenue, Massachusetts 02115 Boston</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Massachusetts 02115 Boston</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author></titleStmt><publicationStmt><idno type="wicri:source">PMC</idno><idno type="pmid">15602562</idno><idno type="pmc">7095078</idno><idno type="url">http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7095078</idno><idno type="RBID">PMC:7095078</idno><idno type="doi">10.1038/nature03063</idno><date when="2004">2004</date><idno type="wicri:Area/Pmc/Corpus">000190</idno><idno type="wicri:explorRef" wicri:stream="Pmc" wicri:step="Corpus" wicri:corpus="PMC">000190</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/Pmc/Curation">000190</idno><idno type="wicri:explorRef" wicri:stream="Pmc" wicri:step="Curation">000190</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/Pmc/Checkpoint">000C38</idno><idno type="wicri:explorRef" wicri:stream="Pmc" wicri:step="Checkpoint">000C38</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/Ncbi/Merge">000116</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/Ncbi/Curation">000116</idno></publicationStmt><sourceDesc><biblStruct><analytic><title xml:lang="en" level="a" type="main">Transmissibility of 1918 pandemic influenza</title><author><name sortKey="Mills, Christina E" sort="Mills, Christina E" uniqKey="Mills C" first="Christina E." last="Mills">Christina E. Mills</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="Aff1"><institution-wrap><institution-id institution-id-type="GRID">grid.38142.3c</institution-id><institution-id institution-id-type="ISNI">000000041936754X</institution-id><institution>Department of Epidemiology,</institution><institution>Harvard School of Public Health,</institution></institution-wrap>677 Huntington Avenue, Massachusetts 02115 Boston, USA</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country><wicri:regionArea>677 Huntington Avenue, Massachusetts 02115 Boston</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Massachusetts 02115 Boston</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Robins, James M" sort="Robins, James M" uniqKey="Robins J" first="James M." last="Robins">James M. Robins</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="Aff1"><institution-wrap><institution-id institution-id-type="GRID">grid.38142.3c</institution-id><institution-id institution-id-type="ISNI">000000041936754X</institution-id><institution>Department of Epidemiology,</institution><institution>Harvard School of Public Health,</institution></institution-wrap>677 Huntington Avenue, Massachusetts 02115 Boston, USA</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country><wicri:regionArea>677 Huntington Avenue, Massachusetts 02115 Boston</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Massachusetts 02115 Boston</wicri:noRegion></affiliation><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="Aff2"><institution-wrap><institution-id institution-id-type="GRID">grid.38142.3c</institution-id><institution-id institution-id-type="ISNI">000000041936754X</institution-id><institution>Department of Biostatistics,</institution><institution>Harvard School of Public Health,</institution></institution-wrap>677 Huntington Avenue, Massachusetts 02115 Boston, USA</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country><wicri:regionArea>677 Huntington Avenue, Massachusetts 02115 Boston</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Massachusetts 02115 Boston</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Lipsitch, Marc" sort="Lipsitch, Marc" uniqKey="Lipsitch M" first="Marc" last="Lipsitch">Marc Lipsitch</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="Aff1"><institution-wrap><institution-id institution-id-type="GRID">grid.38142.3c</institution-id><institution-id institution-id-type="ISNI">000000041936754X</institution-id><institution>Department of Epidemiology,</institution><institution>Harvard School of Public Health,</institution></institution-wrap>677 Huntington Avenue, Massachusetts 02115 Boston, USA</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country><wicri:regionArea>677 Huntington Avenue, Massachusetts 02115 Boston</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Massachusetts 02115 Boston</wicri:noRegion></affiliation><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="Aff3"><institution-wrap><institution-id institution-id-type="GRID">grid.38142.3c</institution-id><institution-id institution-id-type="ISNI">000000041936754X</institution-id><institution>Department of Immunology and Infectious Diseases,</institution><institution>Harvard School of Public Health,</institution></institution-wrap>677 Huntington Avenue, Massachusetts 02115 Boston, USA</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country><wicri:regionArea>677 Huntington Avenue, Massachusetts 02115 Boston</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Massachusetts 02115 Boston</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author></analytic><series><title level="j">Nature</title><idno type="ISSN">0028-0836</idno><idno type="eISSN">1476-4687</idno><imprint><date when="2004">2004</date></imprint></series></biblStruct></sourceDesc></fileDesc><profileDesc><textClass></textClass></profileDesc></teiHeader><front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en"><p id="Par1">The 1918 influenza pandemic killed 20–40 million people worldwide<sup><xref ref-type="bibr" rid="CR1">1</xref></sup>, and is seen as a worst-case scenario for pandemic planning. Like other pandemic influenza strains, the 1918 A/H1N1 strain spread extremely rapidly. A measure of transmissibility and of the stringency of control measures required to stop an epidemic is the reproductive number, which is the number of secondary cases produced by each primary case<sup><xref ref-type="bibr" rid="CR2">2</xref></sup>. Here we obtained an estimate of the reproductive number for 1918 influenza by fitting a deterministic SEIR (susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered) model to pneumonia and influenza death epidemic curves from 45 US cities: the median value is less than three. The estimated proportion of the population with A/H1N1 immunity before September 1918 implies a median basic reproductive number of less than four. These results strongly suggest that the reproductive number for 1918 pandemic influenza is not large relative to many other infectious diseases<sup><xref ref-type="bibr" rid="CR2">2</xref></sup>. In theory, a similar novel influenza subtype could be controlled. But because influenza is frequently transmitted before a specific diagnosis is possible and there is a dearth of global antiviral and vaccine stores, aggressive transmission reducing measures will probably be required.</p><sec><title>Supplementary information</title><p>The online version of this article (doi:10.1038/nature03063) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.</p></sec></div></front><back><div1 type="bibliography"><listBibl><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Patterson, Kd" uniqKey="Patterson K">KD Patterson</name></author><author><name sortKey="Pyle, Gf" uniqKey="Pyle G">GF Pyle</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Anderson, Rm" uniqKey="Anderson R">RM Anderson</name></author><author><name sortKey="May, Rm" uniqKey="May R">RM May</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Webby, Rj" uniqKey="Webby R">RJ Webby</name></author><author><name sortKey="Webster, Rg" uniqKey="Webster R">RG Webster</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Nicholson, K" uniqKey="Nicholson K">K Nicholson</name></author><author><name sortKey="Webster, Rg" uniqKey="Webster R">RG Webster</name></author><author><name sortKey="Hay, Aj" uniqKey="Hay A">AJ Hay</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Webster, Rg" uniqKey="Webster R">RG Webster</name></author><author><name sortKey="Bean, Wj" uniqKey="Bean W">WJ Bean</name></author><author><name sortKey="Gorman, Ot" uniqKey="Gorman O">OT Gorman</name></author><author><name sortKey="Chambers, Tm" uniqKey="Chambers T">TM Chambers</name></author><author><name sortKey="Kawaoka, Y" uniqKey="Kawaoka Y">Y Kawaoka</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Simonsen, L" uniqKey="Simonsen L">L Simonsen</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Frost, Wh" uniqKey="Frost W">WH Frost</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Longini, Im" uniqKey="Longini I">IM Longini</name></author><author><name sortKey="Halloran, Me" uniqKey="Halloran M">ME Halloran</name></author><author><name sortKey="Nizam, A" uniqKey="Nizam A">A Nizam</name></author><author><name sortKey="Yang, Y" uniqKey="Yang Y">Y Yang</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Gog, Jr" uniqKey="Gog J">JR Gog</name></author><author><name sortKey="Rimmelzwaan, Gf" uniqKey="Rimmelzwaan G">GF Rimmelzwaan</name></author><author><name sortKey="Osterhaus, Ad" uniqKey="Osterhaus A">AD Osterhaus</name></author><author><name sortKey="Grenfell, Bt" uniqKey="Grenfell B">BT Grenfell</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Spicer, Cc" uniqKey="Spicer C">CC Spicer</name></author><author><name sortKey="Lawrence, Cj" uniqKey="Lawrence C">CJ Lawrence</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Rvachev, La" uniqKey="Rvachev L">LA Rvachev</name></author><author><name sortKey="Longini, Im" uniqKey="Longini I">IM Longini</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Fraser, C" uniqKey="Fraser C">C Fraser</name></author><author><name sortKey="Riley, S" uniqKey="Riley S">S Riley</name></author><author><name sortKey="Anderson, Rm" uniqKey="Anderson R">RM Anderson</name></author><author><name sortKey="Ferguson, Nm" uniqKey="Ferguson N">NM Ferguson</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Jordan, Eo" uniqKey="Jordan E">EO Jordan</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Wolbach, Sb" uniqKey="Wolbach S">SB Wolbach</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Maccallum, Wg" uniqKey="Maccallum W">WG MacCallum</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Klotz, O" uniqKey="Klotz O">O Klotz</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Collins, Sd" uniqKey="Collins S">SD Collins</name></author><author><name sortKey="Frost, Wh" uniqKey="Frost W">WH Frost</name></author><author><name sortKey="Gover, M" uniqKey="Gover M">M Gover</name></author><author><name sortKey="Sydenstricker, E" uniqKey="Sydenstricker E">E Sydenstricker</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct></biblStruct><biblStruct></biblStruct><biblStruct></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Pearl, R" uniqKey="Pearl R">R Pearl</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Frost, Wh" uniqKey="Frost W">WH Frost</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Olson, Dr" uniqKey="Olson D">DR Olson</name></author><author><name sortKey="Simonsen, L" uniqKey="Simonsen L">L Simonsen</name></author><author><name sortKey="Edelson, Pj" uniqKey="Edelson P">PJ Edelson</name></author><author><name sortKey="Morse, Ss" uniqKey="Morse S">SS Morse</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Stanley, Ll" uniqKey="Stanley L">LL Stanley</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Hill, An" uniqKey="Hill A">AN Hill</name></author><author><name sortKey="Longini, Im" uniqKey="Longini I">IM Longini</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Riley, S" uniqKey="Riley S">S Riley</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Lipsitch, M" uniqKey="Lipsitch M">M Lipsitch</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Wallinga, J" uniqKey="Wallinga J">J Wallinga</name></author><author><name sortKey="Teunis, P" uniqKey="Teunis P">P Teunis</name></author></analytic></biblStruct></listBibl></div1></back></TEI></record>Pour manipuler ce document sous Unix (Dilib)
EXPLOR_STEP=$WICRI_ROOT/Sante/explor/H2N2V1/Data/Ncbi/Curation
HfdSelect -h $EXPLOR_STEP/biblio.hfd -nk 000116 | SxmlIndent | more
Ou
HfdSelect -h $EXPLOR_AREA/Data/Ncbi/Curation/biblio.hfd -nk 000116 | SxmlIndent | more
Pour mettre un lien sur cette page dans le réseau Wicri
{{Explor lien
|wiki= Sante
|area= H2N2V1
|flux= Ncbi
|étape= Curation
|type= RBID
|clé= PMC:7095078
|texte= Transmissibility of 1918 pandemic influenza
}}
Pour générer des pages wiki
HfdIndexSelect -h $EXPLOR_AREA/Data/Ncbi/Curation/RBID.i -Sk "pubmed:15602562" \
| HfdSelect -Kh $EXPLOR_AREA/Data/Ncbi/Curation/biblio.hfd \
| NlmPubMed2Wicri -a H2N2V1
| This area was generated with Dilib version V0.6.33. |  |