Projections of U.S. Edentulism prevalence following 5 decades of decline.
Identifieur interne : 000680 ( PubMed/Curation ); précédent : 000679; suivant : 000681Projections of U.S. Edentulism prevalence following 5 decades of decline.
Auteurs : G D Slade [États-Unis] ; A A Akinkugbe [États-Unis] ; A E Sanders [États-Unis]Source :
- Journal of dental research [ 1544-0591 ] ; 2014.
Descripteurs français
- KwdFr :
- Adolescent, Adulte, Afro-Américains (), Américain origine asiatique (), Bouche édentée (épidémiologie), Croissance démographique, Dynamique des populations, Facteurs de l'âge, Femelle, Géographie, Hispano-américain (), Humains, Incidence, Jeune adulte, Mâle, Pauvreté (), Population d'origine européenne (), Prévalence, Revenu (), Sujet âgé, Sujet âgé de 80 ans ou plus, Système de surveillance des facteurs de risques comportementaux, États-Unis d'Amérique (épidémiologie), Études de cohortes, Études transversales.
- MESH :
- épidémiologie : Bouche édentée, États-Unis d'Amérique.
- Adolescent, Adulte, Afro-Américains, Américain origine asiatique, Croissance démographique, Dynamique des populations, Facteurs de l'âge, Femelle, Géographie, Hispano-américain, Humains, Incidence, Jeune adulte, Mâle, Pauvreté, Population d'origine européenne, Prévalence, Revenu, Sujet âgé, Sujet âgé de 80 ans ou plus, Système de surveillance des facteurs de risques comportementaux, Études de cohortes, Études transversales.
- Wicri :
- geographic : États-Unis.
English descriptors
- KwdEn :
- Adolescent, Adult, African Americans (statistics & numerical data), Age Factors, Aged, Aged, 80 and over, Asian Americans (statistics & numerical data), Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System, Cohort Studies, Cross-Sectional Studies, European Continental Ancestry Group (statistics & numerical data), Female, Geography, Hispanic Americans (statistics & numerical data), Humans, Incidence, Income (statistics & numerical data), Male, Mouth, Edentulous (epidemiology), Population Dynamics, Population Growth, Poverty (statistics & numerical data), Prevalence, United States (epidemiology), Young Adult.
- MESH :
- geographic , epidemiology : United States.
- epidemiology : Mouth, Edentulous.
- statistics & numerical data : African Americans, Asian Americans, European Continental Ancestry Group, Hispanic Americans, Income, Poverty.
- Adolescent, Adult, Age Factors, Aged, Aged, 80 and over, Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System, Cohort Studies, Cross-Sectional Studies, Female, Geography, Humans, Incidence, Male, Population Dynamics, Population Growth, Prevalence, Young Adult.
Abstract
After decades of decline in prevalence of complete tooth loss (edentulism), the trend continues to be misinterpreted, producing flawed projections and misdirected health goals. We investigated population trends in edentulism among U.S. adults aged ≥ 15 yr by creating time-series data from 5 national cross-sectional health surveys: 1957-1958 (n ≈ 100,000 adults), 1971-1975 (n = 14,655 adults), 1988-1998 (n = 18,011 adults), 1999-2002 (n = 12,336 adults), and 2009-2012 (n = 10,522 adults). Birth cohort analysis was used to isolate age and cohort effects. Geographic and sociodemographic variation in prevalence was investigated with a sixth U.S. survey of 432,519 adults conducted in 2010. Prevalence through 2050 was projected with age-cohort regression models using Monte-Carlo simulation of prediction intervals. Across the 5-decade observation period, edentulism prevalence declined from 18.9% in 1957-1958 (95% confidence limits: 18.4%, 19.4%) to 4.9% in 2009-2012 (95% confidence limits: 4.0%, 5.8%). The most influential determinant of the decline was the passing of generations born before the 1940s, whose rate of edentulism incidence (5%-6% per decade of age) far exceeded later cohorts (1%-3% per decade of age). High-income households experienced a greater relative decline, although a smaller absolute decline, than low-income households. By 2010, edentulism was a rare condition in high-income households, and it had contracted geographically to states with disproportionately high poverty. With the passing of generations born in the mid-20th century, the rate of decline in edentulism is projected to slow, reaching 2.6% (95% prediction limits: 2.1%, 3.1%) by 2050. The continuing decline will be offset only partially by population growth and population aging such that the predicted number of edentulous people in 2050 (8.6 million; 95% prediction limits: 6.8 million, 10.3 million) will be 30% lower than the 12.2 million edentulous people in 2010.
DOI: 10.1177/0022034514546165
PubMed: 25146182
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We investigated population trends in edentulism among U.S. adults aged ≥ 15 yr by creating time-series data from 5 national cross-sectional health surveys: 1957-1958 (n ≈ 100,000 adults), 1971-1975 (n = 14,655 adults), 1988-1998 (n = 18,011 adults), 1999-2002 (n = 12,336 adults), and 2009-2012 (n = 10,522 adults). Birth cohort analysis was used to isolate age and cohort effects. Geographic and sociodemographic variation in prevalence was investigated with a sixth U.S. survey of 432,519 adults conducted in 2010. Prevalence through 2050 was projected with age-cohort regression models using Monte-Carlo simulation of prediction intervals. Across the 5-decade observation period, edentulism prevalence declined from 18.9% in 1957-1958 (95% confidence limits: 18.4%, 19.4%) to 4.9% in 2009-2012 (95% confidence limits: 4.0%, 5.8%). The most influential determinant of the decline was the passing of generations born before the 1940s, whose rate of edentulism incidence (5%-6% per decade of age) far exceeded later cohorts (1%-3% per decade of age). High-income households experienced a greater relative decline, although a smaller absolute decline, than low-income households. By 2010, edentulism was a rare condition in high-income households, and it had contracted geographically to states with disproportionately high poverty. With the passing of generations born in the mid-20th century, the rate of decline in edentulism is projected to slow, reaching 2.6% (95% prediction limits: 2.1%, 3.1%) by 2050. The continuing decline will be offset only partially by population growth and population aging such that the predicted number of edentulous people in 2050 (8.6 million; 95% prediction limits: 6.8 million, 10.3 million) will be 30% lower than the 12.2 million edentulous people in 2010.</div></front></TEI><pubmed><MedlineCitation Status="MEDLINE" Owner="NLM"><PMID Version="1">25146182</PMID><DateCompleted><Year>2015</Year><Month>01</Month><Day>09</Day></DateCompleted><DateRevised><Year>2017</Year><Month>02</Month><Day>20</Day></DateRevised><Article PubModel="Print-Electronic"><Journal><ISSN IssnType="Electronic">1544-0591</ISSN><JournalIssue CitedMedium="Internet"><Volume>93</Volume><Issue>10</Issue><PubDate><Year>2014</Year><Month>Oct</Month></PubDate></JournalIssue><Title>Journal of dental research</Title><ISOAbbreviation>J. Dent. Res.</ISOAbbreviation></Journal><ArticleTitle>Projections of U.S. Edentulism prevalence following 5 decades of decline.</ArticleTitle><Pagination><MedlinePgn>959-65</MedlinePgn></Pagination><ELocationID EIdType="doi" ValidYN="Y">10.1177/0022034514546165</ELocationID><Abstract><AbstractText>After decades of decline in prevalence of complete tooth loss (edentulism), the trend continues to be misinterpreted, producing flawed projections and misdirected health goals. We investigated population trends in edentulism among U.S. adults aged ≥ 15 yr by creating time-series data from 5 national cross-sectional health surveys: 1957-1958 (n ≈ 100,000 adults), 1971-1975 (n = 14,655 adults), 1988-1998 (n = 18,011 adults), 1999-2002 (n = 12,336 adults), and 2009-2012 (n = 10,522 adults). Birth cohort analysis was used to isolate age and cohort effects. Geographic and sociodemographic variation in prevalence was investigated with a sixth U.S. survey of 432,519 adults conducted in 2010. Prevalence through 2050 was projected with age-cohort regression models using Monte-Carlo simulation of prediction intervals. Across the 5-decade observation period, edentulism prevalence declined from 18.9% in 1957-1958 (95% confidence limits: 18.4%, 19.4%) to 4.9% in 2009-2012 (95% confidence limits: 4.0%, 5.8%). The most influential determinant of the decline was the passing of generations born before the 1940s, whose rate of edentulism incidence (5%-6% per decade of age) far exceeded later cohorts (1%-3% per decade of age). High-income households experienced a greater relative decline, although a smaller absolute decline, than low-income households. By 2010, edentulism was a rare condition in high-income households, and it had contracted geographically to states with disproportionately high poverty. With the passing of generations born in the mid-20th century, the rate of decline in edentulism is projected to slow, reaching 2.6% (95% prediction limits: 2.1%, 3.1%) by 2050. The continuing decline will be offset only partially by population growth and population aging such that the predicted number of edentulous people in 2050 (8.6 million; 95% prediction limits: 6.8 million, 10.3 million) will be 30% lower than the 12.2 million edentulous people in 2010.</AbstractText><CopyrightInformation>© International & American Associations for Dental Research.</CopyrightInformation></Abstract><AuthorList CompleteYN="Y"><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Slade</LastName><ForeName>G D</ForeName><Initials>GD</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Department of Dental Ecology, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, USA gary_slade@dentistry.unc.edu.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Akinkugbe</LastName><ForeName>A A</ForeName><Initials>AA</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Department of Dental Ecology, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, USA.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Sanders</LastName><ForeName>A E</ForeName><Initials>AE</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Department of Dental Ecology, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, USA.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author></AuthorList><Language>eng</Language><GrantList CompleteYN="Y"><Grant><GrantID>T90 DE021986</GrantID><Acronym>DE</Acronym><Agency>NIDCR NIH HHS</Agency><Country>United States</Country></Grant><Grant><GrantID>5T90DE021986-03</GrantID><Acronym>DE</Acronym><Agency>NIDCR NIH HHS</Agency><Country>United States</Country></Grant></GrantList><PublicationTypeList><PublicationType UI="D016428">Journal Article</PublicationType><PublicationType UI="D052061">Research Support, N.I.H., Extramural</PublicationType></PublicationTypeList><ArticleDate DateType="Electronic"><Year>2014</Year><Month>08</Month><Day>21</Day></ArticleDate></Article><MedlineJournalInfo><Country>United States</Country><MedlineTA>J Dent Res</MedlineTA><NlmUniqueID>0354343</NlmUniqueID><ISSNLinking>0022-0345</ISSNLinking></MedlineJournalInfo><CitationSubset>D</CitationSubset><CitationSubset>IM</CitationSubset><CommentsCorrectionsList><CommentsCorrections RefType="Cites"><RefSource>Milbank Q. 2010 Mar;88(1):4-29</RefSource><PMID Version="1">20377756</PMID></CommentsCorrections><CommentsCorrections RefType="Cites"><RefSource>J Am Dent Assoc. 2004 Aug;135(8):1154-62; quiz 1165</RefSource><PMID Version="1">15387055</PMID></CommentsCorrections><CommentsCorrections RefType="Cites"><RefSource>J Am Dent Assoc. 1951 Jun;42(6):615-97</RefSource><PMID Version="1">14831976</PMID></CommentsCorrections><CommentsCorrections RefType="Cites"><RefSource>Aust N Z J Public Health. 2004 Dec;28(6):549-54</RefSource><PMID Version="1">15707204</PMID></CommentsCorrections><CommentsCorrections RefType="Cites"><RefSource>Am J Public Health. 2014 May;104(5):e85-91</RefSource><PMID 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Version="1">3629047</PMID></CommentsCorrections><CommentsCorrections RefType="Cites"><RefSource>J Public Health Dent. 1978 Fall;38(4):272-88</RefSource><PMID Version="1">366130</PMID></CommentsCorrections><CommentsCorrections RefType="Cites"><RefSource>Int Dent J. 2003 Oct;53(5):285-8</RefSource><PMID Version="1">14560802</PMID></CommentsCorrections><CommentsCorrections RefType="Cites"><RefSource>Br Dent J. 2012 Nov;213(10):523-7</RefSource><PMID Version="1">23175081</PMID></CommentsCorrections></CommentsCorrectionsList><MeshHeadingList><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D000293" MajorTopicYN="N">Adolescent</DescriptorName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D000328" MajorTopicYN="N">Adult</DescriptorName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D001741" MajorTopicYN="N">African Americans</DescriptorName><QualifierName UI="Q000706" MajorTopicYN="N">statistics & numerical data</QualifierName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D000367" MajorTopicYN="N">Age 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