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Prediction of Epidemic Spread of the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Driven by Spring Festival Transportation in China: A Population-Based Study.

Identifieur interne : 000436 ( PubMed/Checkpoint ); précédent : 000435; suivant : 000437

Prediction of Epidemic Spread of the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Driven by Spring Festival Transportation in China: A Population-Based Study.

Auteurs : Changyu Fan [République populaire de Chine] ; Linping Liu [République populaire de Chine] ; Wei Guo [République populaire de Chine] ; Anuo Yang [République populaire de Chine] ; Chenchen Ye [République populaire de Chine] ; Maitixirepu Jilili [République populaire de Chine] ; Meina Ren [République populaire de Chine] ; Peng Xu [République populaire de Chine] ; Hexing Long [République populaire de Chine] ; Yufan Wang [République populaire de Chine]

Source :

International journal of environmental research and public health [ 1660-4601 ] ; 2020.

RBID : pubmed:32143519

Descripteurs français

KwdFr :
- Adulte, Adulte d'âge moyen, Caractéristiques familiales, Chine (épidémiologie), Commémorations et événements particuliers, Coronavirus, Femelle, Humains, Infections à coronavirus (transmission), Infections à coronavirus (épidémiologie), Jeune adulte, Mâle, Pneumopathie virale (transmission), Pneumopathie virale (épidémiologie), Population rurale, Prévision, Saisons, Santé de la famille, Sujet âgé, Vacances, Villes, Émigration et immigration, Épidémies.
MESH :
- épidémiologie : Chine, Infections à coronavirus, Pneumopathie virale.
- Adulte, Adulte d'âge moyen, Caractéristiques familiales, Commémorations et événements particuliers, Coronavirus, Femelle, Humains, Jeune adulte, Mâle, Population rurale, Prévision, Saisons, Santé de la famille, Sujet âgé, Vacances, Villes, Émigration et immigration, Épidémies.
Wicri :
- geographic : République populaire de Chine.

English descriptors

KwdEn :
- Adult, Aged, Anniversaries and Special Events, Betacoronavirus (isolation & purification), Betacoronavirus (pathogenicity), China (epidemiology), Cities, Coronavirus, Coronavirus Infections (epidemiology), Coronavirus Infections (transmission), Emigration and Immigration, Epidemics, Family Characteristics, Family Health, Female, Forecasting, Holidays, Humans, Male, Middle Aged, Pneumonia, Viral (epidemiology), Pneumonia, Viral (transmission), Rural Population, Seasons, Young Adult.
MESH :
- geographic , epidemiology : China.
- epidemiology : Coronavirus Infections, Pneumonia, Viral.
- isolation & purification : Betacoronavirus.
- pathogenicity : Betacoronavirus.
- transmission : Coronavirus Infections, Pneumonia, Viral.
- Adult, Aged, Anniversaries and Special Events, Cities, Coronavirus, Emigration and Immigration, Epidemics, Family Characteristics, Family Health, Female, Forecasting, Holidays, Humans, Male, Middle Aged, Rural Population, Seasons, Young Adult.

Abstract

After the 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) outbreak, we estimated the distribution and scale of more than 5 million migrants residing in Wuhan after they returned to their hometown communities in Hubei Province or other provinces at the end of 2019 by using the data from the 2013-2018 China Migrants Dynamic Survey (CMDS). We found that the distribution of Wuhan's migrants is centred in Hubei Province (approximately 75%) at a provincial level, gradually decreasing in the surrounding provinces in layers, with obvious spatial characteristics of circle layers and echelons. The scale of Wuhan's migrants, whose origins in Hubei Province give rise to a gradient reduction from east to west within the province, and account for 66% of Wuhan's total migrants, are from the surrounding prefectural-level cities of Wuhan. The distribution comprises 94 districts and counties in Hubei Province, and the cumulative percentage of the top 30 districts and counties exceeds 80%. Wuhan's migrants have a large proportion of middle-aged and high-risk individuals. Their social characteristics include nuclear family migration (84%), migration with families of 3-4 members (71%), a rural household registration (85%), and working or doing business (84%) as the main reason for migration. Using a quasi-experimental analysis framework, we found that the size of Wuhan's migrants was highly correlated with the daily number of confirmed cases. Furthermore, we compared the epidemic situation in different regions and found that the number of confirmed cases in some provinces and cities in Hubei Province may be underestimated, while the epidemic situation in some regions has increased rapidly. The results are conducive to monitoring the epidemic prevention and control in various regions.

DOI: 10.3390/ijerph17051679
PubMed: 32143519

Affiliations:

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<front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en">After the 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) outbreak, we estimated the distribution and scale of more than 5 million migrants residing in Wuhan after they returned to their hometown communities in Hubei Province or other provinces at the end of 2019 by using the data from the 2013-2018 China Migrants Dynamic Survey (CMDS). We found that the distribution of Wuhan's migrants is centred in Hubei Province (approximately 75%) at a provincial level, gradually decreasing in the surrounding provinces in layers, with obvious spatial characteristics of circle layers and echelons. The scale of Wuhan's migrants, whose origins in Hubei Province give rise to a gradient reduction from east to west within the province, and account for 66% of Wuhan's total migrants, are from the surrounding prefectural-level cities of Wuhan. The distribution comprises 94 districts and counties in Hubei Province, and the cumulative percentage of the top 30 districts and counties exceeds 80%. Wuhan's migrants have a large proportion of middle-aged and high-risk individuals. Their social characteristics include nuclear family migration (84%), migration with families of 3-4 members (71%), a rural household registration (85%), and working or doing business (84%) as the main reason for migration. Using a quasi-experimental analysis framework, we found that the size of Wuhan's migrants was highly correlated with the daily number of confirmed cases. Furthermore, we compared the epidemic situation in different regions and found that the number of confirmed cases in some provinces and cities in Hubei Province may be underestimated, while the epidemic situation in some regions has increased rapidly. The results are conducive to monitoring the epidemic prevention and control in various regions.</div>
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<Abstract><AbstractText>After the 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) outbreak, we estimated the distribution and scale of more than 5 million migrants residing in Wuhan after they returned to their hometown communities in Hubei Province or other provinces at the end of 2019 by using the data from the 2013-2018 China Migrants Dynamic Survey (CMDS). We found that the distribution of Wuhan's migrants is centred in Hubei Province (approximately 75%) at a provincial level, gradually decreasing in the surrounding provinces in layers, with obvious spatial characteristics of circle layers and echelons. The scale of Wuhan's migrants, whose origins in Hubei Province give rise to a gradient reduction from east to west within the province, and account for 66% of Wuhan's total migrants, are from the surrounding prefectural-level cities of Wuhan. The distribution comprises 94 districts and counties in Hubei Province, and the cumulative percentage of the top 30 districts and counties exceeds 80%. Wuhan's migrants have a large proportion of middle-aged and high-risk individuals. Their social characteristics include nuclear family migration (84%), migration with families of 3-4 members (71%), a rural household registration (85%), and working or doing business (84%) as the main reason for migration. Using a quasi-experimental analysis framework, we found that the size of Wuhan's migrants was highly correlated with the daily number of confirmed cases. Furthermore, we compared the epidemic situation in different regions and found that the number of confirmed cases in some provinces and cities in Hubei Province may be underestimated, while the epidemic situation in some regions has increased rapidly. The results are conducive to monitoring the epidemic prevention and control in various regions.</AbstractText>
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Prediction of Epidemic Spread of the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Driven by Spring Festival Transportation in China: A Population-Based Study.

Prediction of Epidemic Spread of the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Driven by Spring Festival Transportation in China: A Population-Based Study.

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