Prediction of Epidemic Spread of the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Driven by Spring Festival Transportation in China: A Population-Based Study.
Identifieur interne : 000762 ( PubMed/Corpus ); précédent : 000761; suivant : 000763Prediction of Epidemic Spread of the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Driven by Spring Festival Transportation in China: A Population-Based Study.
Auteurs : Changyu Fan ; Linping Liu ; Wei Guo ; Anuo Yang ; Chenchen Ye ; Maitixirepu Jilili ; Meina Ren ; Peng Xu ; Hexing Long ; Yufan WangSource :
- International journal of environmental research and public health [ 1660-4601 ] ; 2020.
English descriptors
- KwdEn :
- Adult, Aged, Anniversaries and Special Events, Betacoronavirus (isolation & purification), Betacoronavirus (pathogenicity), China (epidemiology), Cities, Coronavirus, Coronavirus Infections (epidemiology), Coronavirus Infections (transmission), Emigration and Immigration, Epidemics, Family Characteristics, Family Health, Female, Forecasting, Holidays, Humans, Male, Middle Aged, Pneumonia, Viral (epidemiology), Pneumonia, Viral (transmission), Rural Population, Seasons, Young Adult.
- MESH :
- geographic , epidemiology : China.
- epidemiology : Coronavirus Infections, Pneumonia, Viral.
- isolation & purification : Betacoronavirus.
- pathogenicity : Betacoronavirus.
- transmission : Coronavirus Infections, Pneumonia, Viral.
- Adult, Aged, Anniversaries and Special Events, Cities, Coronavirus, Emigration and Immigration, Epidemics, Family Characteristics, Family Health, Female, Forecasting, Holidays, Humans, Male, Middle Aged, Rural Population, Seasons, Young Adult.
Abstract
After the 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) outbreak, we estimated the distribution and scale of more than 5 million migrants residing in Wuhan after they returned to their hometown communities in Hubei Province or other provinces at the end of 2019 by using the data from the 2013-2018 China Migrants Dynamic Survey (CMDS). We found that the distribution of Wuhan's migrants is centred in Hubei Province (approximately 75%) at a provincial level, gradually decreasing in the surrounding provinces in layers, with obvious spatial characteristics of circle layers and echelons. The scale of Wuhan's migrants, whose origins in Hubei Province give rise to a gradient reduction from east to west within the province, and account for 66% of Wuhan's total migrants, are from the surrounding prefectural-level cities of Wuhan. The distribution comprises 94 districts and counties in Hubei Province, and the cumulative percentage of the top 30 districts and counties exceeds 80%. Wuhan's migrants have a large proportion of middle-aged and high-risk individuals. Their social characteristics include nuclear family migration (84%), migration with families of 3-4 members (71%), a rural household registration (85%), and working or doing business (84%) as the main reason for migration. Using a quasi-experimental analysis framework, we found that the size of Wuhan's migrants was highly correlated with the daily number of confirmed cases. Furthermore, we compared the epidemic situation in different regions and found that the number of confirmed cases in some provinces and cities in Hubei Province may be underestimated, while the epidemic situation in some regions has increased rapidly. The results are conducive to monitoring the epidemic prevention and control in various regions.
DOI: 10.3390/ijerph17051679
PubMed: 32143519
Links to Exploration step
pubmed:32143519Le document en format XML
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first="Linping" last="Liu">Linping Liu</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>School of Public Administration, Hangzhou Normal University, Hangzhou 311121, Zhejiang Province, China.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Guo, Wei" sort="Guo, Wei" uniqKey="Guo W" first="Wei" last="Guo">Wei Guo</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>School of Social and Behavioral Sciences, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210046, Jiangsu Province, China.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Yang, Anuo" sort="Yang, Anuo" uniqKey="Yang A" first="Anuo" last="Yang">Anuo Yang</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>School of Social and Behavioral Sciences, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210046, Jiangsu Province, China.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Ye, Chenchen" sort="Ye, Chenchen" uniqKey="Ye C" first="Chenchen" last="Ye">Chenchen Ye</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>School of Social and Behavioral Sciences, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210046, Jiangsu Province, China.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Jilili, Maitixirepu" sort="Jilili, Maitixirepu" uniqKey="Jilili M" first="Maitixirepu" last="Jilili">Maitixirepu Jilili</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>School of Social and Behavioral Sciences, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210046, Jiangsu Province, China.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Ren, Meina" sort="Ren, Meina" uniqKey="Ren M" first="Meina" last="Ren">Meina Ren</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>School of Social and Behavioral Sciences, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210046, Jiangsu Province, China.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Xu, Peng" sort="Xu, Peng" uniqKey="Xu P" first="Peng" last="Xu">Peng Xu</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>School of Sociology, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430072, Hubei Province, China.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Long, Hexing" sort="Long, Hexing" uniqKey="Long H" first="Hexing" last="Long">Hexing Long</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>School of Economics, Minzu University of China, Beijing 100081, China.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Wang, Yufan" sort="Wang, Yufan" uniqKey="Wang Y" first="Yufan" last="Wang">Yufan Wang</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>School of Sociology, Central China Normal University, Wuhan 430079, Hubei Province, China.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author></analytic><series><title level="j">International journal of environmental research and public health</title><idno type="eISSN">1660-4601</idno><imprint><date when="2020" type="published">2020</date></imprint></series></biblStruct></sourceDesc></fileDesc><profileDesc><textClass><keywords scheme="KwdEn" xml:lang="en"><term>Adult</term><term>Aged</term><term>Anniversaries and Special Events</term><term>Betacoronavirus (isolation & purification)</term><term>Betacoronavirus (pathogenicity)</term><term>China (epidemiology)</term><term>Cities</term><term>Coronavirus</term><term>Coronavirus Infections (epidemiology)</term><term>Coronavirus Infections (transmission)</term><term>Emigration and Immigration</term><term>Epidemics</term><term>Family Characteristics</term><term>Family Health</term><term>Female</term><term>Forecasting</term><term>Holidays</term><term>Humans</term><term>Male</term><term>Middle Aged</term><term>Pneumonia, Viral (epidemiology)</term><term>Pneumonia, Viral (transmission)</term><term>Rural Population</term><term>Seasons</term><term>Young Adult</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" type="geographic" qualifier="epidemiology" xml:lang="en"><term>China</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="epidemiology" xml:lang="en"><term>Coronavirus Infections</term><term>Pneumonia, Viral</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="isolation & purification" xml:lang="en"><term>Betacoronavirus</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="pathogenicity" xml:lang="en"><term>Betacoronavirus</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="transmission" xml:lang="en"><term>Coronavirus Infections</term><term>Pneumonia, Viral</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" xml:lang="en"><term>Adult</term><term>Aged</term><term>Anniversaries and Special Events</term><term>Cities</term><term>Coronavirus</term><term>Emigration and Immigration</term><term>Epidemics</term><term>Family Characteristics</term><term>Family Health</term><term>Female</term><term>Forecasting</term><term>Holidays</term><term>Humans</term><term>Male</term><term>Middle Aged</term><term>Rural Population</term><term>Seasons</term><term>Young Adult</term></keywords></textClass></profileDesc></teiHeader><front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en">After the 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) outbreak, we estimated the distribution and scale of more than 5 million migrants residing in Wuhan after they returned to their hometown communities in Hubei Province or other provinces at the end of 2019 by using the data from the 2013-2018 China Migrants Dynamic Survey (CMDS). We found that the distribution of Wuhan's migrants is centred in Hubei Province (approximately 75%) at a provincial level, gradually decreasing in the surrounding provinces in layers, with obvious spatial characteristics of circle layers and echelons. The scale of Wuhan's migrants, whose origins in Hubei Province give rise to a gradient reduction from east to west within the province, and account for 66% of Wuhan's total migrants, are from the surrounding prefectural-level cities of Wuhan. The distribution comprises 94 districts and counties in Hubei Province, and the cumulative percentage of the top 30 districts and counties exceeds 80%. Wuhan's migrants have a large proportion of middle-aged and high-risk individuals. Their social characteristics include nuclear family migration (84%), migration with families of 3-4 members (71%), a rural household registration (85%), and working or doing business (84%) as the main reason for migration. Using a quasi-experimental analysis framework, we found that the size of Wuhan's migrants was highly correlated with the daily number of confirmed cases. Furthermore, we compared the epidemic situation in different regions and found that the number of confirmed cases in some provinces and cities in Hubei Province may be underestimated, while the epidemic situation in some regions has increased rapidly. The results are conducive to monitoring the epidemic prevention and control in various regions.</div></front></TEI><pubmed><MedlineCitation Status="MEDLINE" IndexingMethod="Curated" Owner="NLM"><PMID Version="1">32143519</PMID><DateCompleted><Year>2020</Year><Month>03</Month><Day>18</Day></DateCompleted><DateRevised><Year>2020</Year><Month>03</Month><Day>25</Day></DateRevised><Article PubModel="Electronic"><Journal><ISSN IssnType="Electronic">1660-4601</ISSN><JournalIssue CitedMedium="Internet"><Volume>17</Volume><Issue>5</Issue><PubDate><Year>2020</Year><Month>03</Month><Day>04</Day></PubDate></JournalIssue><Title>International journal of environmental research and public health</Title><ISOAbbreviation>Int J Environ Res Public Health</ISOAbbreviation></Journal><ArticleTitle>Prediction of Epidemic Spread of the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Driven by Spring Festival Transportation in China: A Population-Based Study.</ArticleTitle><ELocationID EIdType="pii" ValidYN="Y">E1679</ELocationID><ELocationID EIdType="doi" ValidYN="Y">10.3390/ijerph17051679</ELocationID><Abstract><AbstractText>After the 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) outbreak, we estimated the distribution and scale of more than 5 million migrants residing in Wuhan after they returned to their hometown communities in Hubei Province or other provinces at the end of 2019 by using the data from the 2013-2018 China Migrants Dynamic Survey (CMDS). We found that the distribution of Wuhan's migrants is centred in Hubei Province (approximately 75%) at a provincial level, gradually decreasing in the surrounding provinces in layers, with obvious spatial characteristics of circle layers and echelons. The scale of Wuhan's migrants, whose origins in Hubei Province give rise to a gradient reduction from east to west within the province, and account for 66% of Wuhan's total migrants, are from the surrounding prefectural-level cities of Wuhan. The distribution comprises 94 districts and counties in Hubei Province, and the cumulative percentage of the top 30 districts and counties exceeds 80%. Wuhan's migrants have a large proportion of middle-aged and high-risk individuals. Their social characteristics include nuclear family migration (84%), migration with families of 3-4 members (71%), a rural household registration (85%), and working or doing business (84%) as the main reason for migration. Using a quasi-experimental analysis framework, we found that the size of Wuhan's migrants was highly correlated with the daily number of confirmed cases. Furthermore, we compared the epidemic situation in different regions and found that the number of confirmed cases in some provinces and cities in Hubei Province may be underestimated, while the epidemic situation in some regions has increased rapidly. The results are conducive to monitoring the epidemic prevention and control in various regions.</AbstractText></Abstract><AuthorList CompleteYN="Y"><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Fan</LastName><ForeName>Changyu</ForeName><Initials>C</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>School of Sociology, Central China Normal University, Wuhan 430079, Hubei Province, China.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Liu</LastName><ForeName>Linping</ForeName><Initials>L</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>School of Public Administration, Hangzhou Normal University, Hangzhou 311121, Zhejiang Province, China.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>School of Social and Behavioral Sciences, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210046, Jiangsu Province, China.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Guo</LastName><ForeName>Wei</ForeName><Initials>W</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>School of Social and Behavioral Sciences, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210046, Jiangsu Province, China.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Yang</LastName><ForeName>Anuo</ForeName><Initials>A</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>School of Social and Behavioral Sciences, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210046, Jiangsu Province, China.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Ye</LastName><ForeName>Chenchen</ForeName><Initials>C</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>School of Social and Behavioral Sciences, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210046, Jiangsu Province, China.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Jilili</LastName><ForeName>Maitixirepu</ForeName><Initials>M</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>School of Social and Behavioral Sciences, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210046, Jiangsu Province, China.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Ren</LastName><ForeName>Meina</ForeName><Initials>M</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>School of Social and Behavioral Sciences, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210046, Jiangsu Province, China.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Xu</LastName><ForeName>Peng</ForeName><Initials>P</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>School of Sociology, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430072, Hubei Province, China.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Long</LastName><ForeName>Hexing</ForeName><Initials>H</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>School of Economics, Minzu University of China, Beijing 100081, China.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Wang</LastName><ForeName>Yufan</ForeName><Initials>Y</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>School of Sociology, Central China Normal University, Wuhan 430079, Hubei Province, China.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author></AuthorList><Language>eng</Language><PublicationTypeList><PublicationType UI="D016428">Journal Article</PublicationType><PublicationType UI="D013485">Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't</PublicationType></PublicationTypeList><ArticleDate DateType="Electronic"><Year>2020</Year><Month>03</Month><Day>04</Day></ArticleDate></Article><MedlineJournalInfo><Country>Switzerland</Country><MedlineTA>Int J Environ Res Public Health</MedlineTA><NlmUniqueID>101238455</NlmUniqueID><ISSNLinking>1660-4601</ISSNLinking></MedlineJournalInfo><SupplMeshList><SupplMeshName Type="Disease" UI="C000657245">COVID-19</SupplMeshName><SupplMeshName Type="Organism" UI="C000656484">severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2</SupplMeshName></SupplMeshList><CitationSubset>IM</CitationSubset><MeshHeadingList><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D000328" MajorTopicYN="N">Adult</DescriptorName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D000368" MajorTopicYN="N">Aged</DescriptorName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D000846" MajorTopicYN="N">Anniversaries and Special Events</DescriptorName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D000073640" MajorTopicYN="Y">Betacoronavirus</DescriptorName><QualifierName UI="Q000302" MajorTopicYN="N">isolation & purification</QualifierName><QualifierName UI="Q000472" MajorTopicYN="N">pathogenicity</QualifierName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D002681" MajorTopicYN="N" Type="Geographic">China</DescriptorName><QualifierName UI="Q000453" MajorTopicYN="N">epidemiology</QualifierName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D002947" MajorTopicYN="N" Type="Geographic">Cities</DescriptorName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D017934" MajorTopicYN="N">Coronavirus</DescriptorName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D018352" MajorTopicYN="N">Coronavirus Infections</DescriptorName><QualifierName UI="Q000453" MajorTopicYN="Y">epidemiology</QualifierName><QualifierName UI="Q000635" MajorTopicYN="N">transmission</QualifierName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D004641" MajorTopicYN="Y">Emigration and Immigration</DescriptorName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D058872" MajorTopicYN="Y">Epidemics</DescriptorName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D005191" MajorTopicYN="N">Family Characteristics</DescriptorName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D005192" MajorTopicYN="N">Family Health</DescriptorName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D005260" MajorTopicYN="N">Female</DescriptorName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D005544" MajorTopicYN="N">Forecasting</DescriptorName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D006693" MajorTopicYN="N">Holidays</DescriptorName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D006801" MajorTopicYN="N">Humans</DescriptorName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D008297" MajorTopicYN="N">Male</DescriptorName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D008875" MajorTopicYN="N">Middle Aged</DescriptorName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D011024" MajorTopicYN="N">Pneumonia, Viral</DescriptorName><QualifierName UI="Q000453" MajorTopicYN="Y">epidemiology</QualifierName><QualifierName UI="Q000635" MajorTopicYN="N">transmission</QualifierName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D012424" MajorTopicYN="N">Rural Population</DescriptorName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D012621" MajorTopicYN="N">Seasons</DescriptorName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D055815" MajorTopicYN="N">Young Adult</DescriptorName></MeshHeading></MeshHeadingList><KeywordList Owner="NOTNLM"><Keyword MajorTopicYN="Y">2019 novel coronavirus</Keyword><Keyword MajorTopicYN="Y">population size</Keyword><Keyword MajorTopicYN="Y">quasi-experimental approach</Keyword><Keyword MajorTopicYN="Y">social characteristics of floating population</Keyword><Keyword MajorTopicYN="Y">the origins of Wuhan's migrants</Keyword></KeywordList><CoiStatement>The authors declare no conflict of interest.</CoiStatement></MedlineCitation><PubmedData><History><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="received"><Year>2020</Year><Month>02</Month><Day>07</Day></PubMedPubDate><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="revised"><Year>2020</Year><Month>02</Month><Day>22</Day></PubMedPubDate><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="accepted"><Year>2020</Year><Month>02</Month><Day>29</Day></PubMedPubDate><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="entrez"><Year>2020</Year><Month>3</Month><Day>8</Day><Hour>6</Hour><Minute>0</Minute></PubMedPubDate><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="pubmed"><Year>2020</Year><Month>3</Month><Day>8</Day><Hour>6</Hour><Minute>0</Minute></PubMedPubDate><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="medline"><Year>2020</Year><Month>3</Month><Day>19</Day><Hour>6</Hour><Minute>0</Minute></PubMedPubDate></History><PublicationStatus>epublish</PublicationStatus><ArticleIdList><ArticleId 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