A Scenario-Based Evaluation of the Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus and the Hajj
Identifieur interne : 000456 ( Ncbi/Curation ); précédent : 000455; suivant : 000457A Scenario-Based Evaluation of the Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus and the Hajj
Auteurs : Lauren M. Gardner ; David Rey ; Anita E. Heywood ; Renin Toms ; James Wood ; S. Travis Waller ; C. Raina MacintyreSource :
- Risk Analysis [ 0272-4332 ] ; 2014.
Abstract
Between April 2012 and June 2014, 820 laboratory-confirmed cases of the Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) have been reported in the Arabian Peninsula, Europe, North Africa, Southeast Asia, the Middle East, and the United States. The observed epidemiology is different to SARS, which showed a classic epidemic curve and was over in eight months. The much longer persistence of MERS-CoV in the population, with a lower reproductive number, some evidence of human-to-human transmission but an otherwise sporadic pattern, is difficult to explain. Using available epidemiological data, we implemented mathematical models to explore the transmission dynamics of MERS-CoV in the context of mass gatherings such as the Hajj pilgrimage, and found a discrepancy between the observed and expected epidemiology. The fact that no epidemic occurred in returning Hajj pilgrims in either 2012 or 2013 contradicts the long persistence of the virus in human populations. The explanations for this discrepancy include an ongoing, repeated nonhuman/sporadic source, a large proportion of undetected or unreported human-to-human cases, or a combination of the two. Furthermore, MERS-CoV is occurring in a region that is a major global transport hub and hosts significant mass gatherings, making it imperative to understand the source and means of the yet unexplained and puzzling ongoing persistence of the virus in the human population.
Url:
DOI: 10.1111/risa.12253
PubMed: 25041625
PubMed Central: 4238841
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<record><TEI><teiHeader><fileDesc><titleStmt><title xml:lang="en">A Scenario-Based Evaluation of the Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus and the Hajj</title><author><name sortKey="Gardner, Lauren M" sort="Gardner, Lauren M" uniqKey="Gardner L" first="Lauren M" last="Gardner">Lauren M. Gardner</name><affiliation><nlm:aff>NONE</nlm:aff></affiliation><affiliation><nlm:aff>NONE</nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Rey, David" sort="Rey, David" uniqKey="Rey D" first="David" last="Rey">David Rey</name><affiliation><nlm:aff>NONE</nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Heywood, Anita E" sort="Heywood, Anita E" uniqKey="Heywood A" first="Anita E" last="Heywood">Anita E. 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Travis Waller</name><affiliation><nlm:aff>NONE</nlm:aff></affiliation><affiliation><nlm:aff>NONE</nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Raina Macintyre, C" sort="Raina Macintyre, C" uniqKey="Raina Macintyre C" first="C" last="Raina Macintyre">C. Raina Macintyre</name><affiliation><nlm:aff>NONE</nlm:aff></affiliation></author></analytic><series><title level="j">Risk Analysis</title><idno type="ISSN">0272-4332</idno><idno type="eISSN">1539-6924</idno><imprint><date when="2014">2014</date></imprint></series></biblStruct></sourceDesc></fileDesc><profileDesc><textClass></textClass></profileDesc></teiHeader><front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en"><p>Between April 2012 and June 2014, 820 laboratory-confirmed cases of the Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) have been reported in the Arabian Peninsula, Europe, North Africa, Southeast Asia, the Middle East, and the United States. The observed epidemiology is different to SARS, which showed a classic epidemic curve and was over in eight months. The much longer persistence of MERS-CoV in the population, with a lower reproductive number, some evidence of human-to-human transmission but an otherwise sporadic pattern, is difficult to explain. Using available epidemiological data, we implemented mathematical models to explore the transmission dynamics of MERS-CoV in the context of mass gatherings such as the Hajj pilgrimage, and found a discrepancy between the observed and expected epidemiology. The fact that no epidemic occurred in returning Hajj pilgrims in either 2012 or 2013 contradicts the long persistence of the virus in human populations. The explanations for this discrepancy include an ongoing, repeated nonhuman/sporadic source, a large proportion of undetected or unreported human-to-human cases, or a combination of the two. Furthermore, MERS-CoV is occurring in a region that is a major global transport hub and hosts significant mass gatherings, making it imperative to understand the source and means of the yet unexplained and puzzling ongoing persistence of the virus in the human population.</p></div></front><back><div1 type="bibliography"><listBibl><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Zaki, Am" uniqKey="Zaki A">AM Zaki</name></author><author><name sortKey="Van Boheemen, S" uniqKey="Van Boheemen S">S van Boheemen</name></author><author><name sortKey="Bestebroer, Tm" uniqKey="Bestebroer T">TM Bestebroer</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Cauchemez, S" uniqKey="Cauchemez S">S Cauchemez</name></author><author><name sortKey="Fraser, C" uniqKey="Fraser C">C Fraser</name></author><author><name sortKey="Van Kerkhove, Md" uniqKey="Van Kerkhove M">MD Van Kerkhove</name></author><author><name sortKey="Donnelly, Ca" uniqKey="Donnelly 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Riou</name></author><author><name sortKey="Fontanet, A" uniqKey="Fontanet A">A Fontanet</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Brown, C" uniqKey="Brown C">C Brown</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct></biblStruct><biblStruct></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Khan, K" uniqKey="Khan K">K Khan</name></author><author><name sortKey="Sears, J" uniqKey="Sears J">J Sears</name></author><author><name sortKey="Wei Hu, V" uniqKey="Wei Hu V">V Wei Hu</name></author><author><name sortKey="Brownstein, Js" uniqKey="Brownstein J">JS Brownstein</name></author><author><name sortKey="Hay, S" uniqKey="Hay S">S Hay</name></author><author><name sortKey="Kossowsky, D" uniqKey="Kossowsky D">D Kossowsky</name></author><author><name sortKey="Eckhardt, R" uniqKey="Eckhardt R">R Eckhardt</name></author><author><name sortKey="Chim, T" uniqKey="Chim T">T Chim</name></author><author><name sortKey="Berry, I" uniqKey="Berry I">I Berry</name></author><author><name sortKey="Bogoch, I" uniqKey="Bogoch I">I Bogoch</name></author><author><name sortKey="Cetron, M" uniqKey="Cetron M">M Cetron</name></author></analytic></biblStruct></listBibl></div1></back></TEI></record>Pour manipuler ce document sous Unix (Dilib)
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