A Scenario-Based Evaluation of the Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus and the Hajj
Identifieur interne : 000662 ( Pmc/Checkpoint ); précédent : 000661; suivant : 000663A Scenario-Based Evaluation of the Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus and the Hajj
Auteurs : Lauren M. Gardner ; David Rey ; Anita E. Heywood ; Renin Toms ; James Wood ; S. Travis Waller ; C. Raina MacintyreSource :
- Risk Analysis [ 0272-4332 ] ; 2014.
Abstract
Between April 2012 and June 2014, 820 laboratory-confirmed cases of the Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) have been reported in the Arabian Peninsula, Europe, North Africa, Southeast Asia, the Middle East, and the United States. The observed epidemiology is different to SARS, which showed a classic epidemic curve and was over in eight months. The much longer persistence of MERS-CoV in the population, with a lower reproductive number, some evidence of human-to-human transmission but an otherwise sporadic pattern, is difficult to explain. Using available epidemiological data, we implemented mathematical models to explore the transmission dynamics of MERS-CoV in the context of mass gatherings such as the Hajj pilgrimage, and found a discrepancy between the observed and expected epidemiology. The fact that no epidemic occurred in returning Hajj pilgrims in either 2012 or 2013 contradicts the long persistence of the virus in human populations. The explanations for this discrepancy include an ongoing, repeated nonhuman/sporadic source, a large proportion of undetected or unreported human-to-human cases, or a combination of the two. Furthermore, MERS-CoV is occurring in a region that is a major global transport hub and hosts significant mass gatherings, making it imperative to understand the source and means of the yet unexplained and puzzling ongoing persistence of the virus in the human population.
Url:
DOI: 10.1111/risa.12253
PubMed: 25041625
PubMed Central: 4238841
Affiliations:
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<record><TEI><teiHeader><fileDesc><titleStmt><title xml:lang="en">A Scenario-Based Evaluation of the Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus and the Hajj</title><author><name sortKey="Gardner, Lauren M" sort="Gardner, Lauren M" uniqKey="Gardner L" first="Lauren M" last="Gardner">Lauren M. Gardner</name><affiliation><nlm:aff>NONE</nlm:aff></affiliation><affiliation><nlm:aff>NONE</nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Rey, David" sort="Rey, David" uniqKey="Rey D" first="David" last="Rey">David Rey</name><affiliation><nlm:aff>NONE</nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Heywood, Anita E" sort="Heywood, Anita E" uniqKey="Heywood A" first="Anita E" last="Heywood">Anita E. Heywood</name><affiliation><nlm:aff>NONE</nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Toms, Renin" sort="Toms, Renin" uniqKey="Toms R" first="Renin" last="Toms">Renin Toms</name><affiliation><nlm:aff>NONE</nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Wood, James" sort="Wood, James" uniqKey="Wood J" first="James" last="Wood">James Wood</name><affiliation><nlm:aff>NONE</nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Travis Waller, S" sort="Travis Waller, S" uniqKey="Travis Waller S" first="S" last="Travis Waller">S. Travis Waller</name><affiliation><nlm:aff>NONE</nlm:aff></affiliation><affiliation><nlm:aff>NONE</nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Raina Macintyre, C" sort="Raina Macintyre, C" uniqKey="Raina Macintyre C" first="C" last="Raina Macintyre">C. Raina Macintyre</name><affiliation><nlm:aff>NONE</nlm:aff></affiliation></author></titleStmt><publicationStmt><idno type="wicri:source">PMC</idno><idno type="pmid">25041625</idno><idno type="pmc">4238841</idno><idno type="url">http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4238841</idno><idno type="RBID">PMC:4238841</idno><idno type="doi">10.1111/risa.12253</idno><date when="2014">2014</date><idno type="wicri:Area/Pmc/Corpus">000A35</idno><idno type="wicri:explorRef" wicri:stream="Pmc" wicri:step="Corpus" wicri:corpus="PMC">000A35</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/Pmc/Curation">000A35</idno><idno type="wicri:explorRef" wicri:stream="Pmc" wicri:step="Curation">000A35</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/Pmc/Checkpoint">000662</idno><idno type="wicri:explorRef" wicri:stream="Pmc" wicri:step="Checkpoint">000662</idno></publicationStmt><sourceDesc><biblStruct><analytic><title xml:lang="en" level="a" type="main">A Scenario-Based Evaluation of the Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus and the Hajj</title><author><name sortKey="Gardner, Lauren M" sort="Gardner, Lauren M" uniqKey="Gardner L" first="Lauren M" last="Gardner">Lauren M. Gardner</name><affiliation><nlm:aff>NONE</nlm:aff></affiliation><affiliation><nlm:aff>NONE</nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Rey, David" sort="Rey, David" uniqKey="Rey D" first="David" last="Rey">David Rey</name><affiliation><nlm:aff>NONE</nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Heywood, Anita E" sort="Heywood, Anita E" uniqKey="Heywood A" first="Anita E" last="Heywood">Anita E. Heywood</name><affiliation><nlm:aff>NONE</nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Toms, Renin" sort="Toms, Renin" uniqKey="Toms R" first="Renin" last="Toms">Renin Toms</name><affiliation><nlm:aff>NONE</nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Wood, James" sort="Wood, James" uniqKey="Wood J" first="James" last="Wood">James Wood</name><affiliation><nlm:aff>NONE</nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Travis Waller, S" sort="Travis Waller, S" uniqKey="Travis Waller S" first="S" last="Travis Waller">S. Travis Waller</name><affiliation><nlm:aff>NONE</nlm:aff></affiliation><affiliation><nlm:aff>NONE</nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Raina Macintyre, C" sort="Raina Macintyre, C" uniqKey="Raina Macintyre C" first="C" last="Raina Macintyre">C. Raina Macintyre</name><affiliation><nlm:aff>NONE</nlm:aff></affiliation></author></analytic><series><title level="j">Risk Analysis</title><idno type="ISSN">0272-4332</idno><idno type="eISSN">1539-6924</idno><imprint><date when="2014">2014</date></imprint></series></biblStruct></sourceDesc></fileDesc><profileDesc><textClass></textClass></profileDesc></teiHeader><front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en"><p>Between April 2012 and June 2014, 820 laboratory-confirmed cases of the Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) have been reported in the Arabian Peninsula, Europe, North Africa, Southeast Asia, the Middle East, and the United States. The observed epidemiology is different to SARS, which showed a classic epidemic curve and was over in eight months. The much longer persistence of MERS-CoV in the population, with a lower reproductive number, some evidence of human-to-human transmission but an otherwise sporadic pattern, is difficult to explain. Using available epidemiological data, we implemented mathematical models to explore the transmission dynamics of MERS-CoV in the context of mass gatherings such as the Hajj pilgrimage, and found a discrepancy between the observed and expected epidemiology. The fact that no epidemic occurred in returning Hajj pilgrims in either 2012 or 2013 contradicts the long persistence of the virus in human populations. The explanations for this discrepancy include an ongoing, repeated nonhuman/sporadic source, a large proportion of undetected or unreported human-to-human cases, or a combination of the two. Furthermore, MERS-CoV is occurring in a region that is a major global transport hub and hosts significant mass gatherings, making it imperative to understand the source and means of the yet unexplained and puzzling ongoing persistence of the virus in the human population.</p></div></front><back><div1 type="bibliography"><listBibl><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Zaki, Am" uniqKey="Zaki A">AM Zaki</name></author><author><name sortKey="Van Boheemen, S" uniqKey="Van Boheemen S">S van Boheemen</name></author><author><name sortKey="Bestebroer, Tm" uniqKey="Bestebroer T">TM Bestebroer</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Cauchemez, S" uniqKey="Cauchemez S">S Cauchemez</name></author><author><name sortKey="Fraser, C" uniqKey="Fraser C">C Fraser</name></author><author><name sortKey="Van Kerkhove, Md" uniqKey="Van Kerkhove M">MD Van Kerkhove</name></author><author><name sortKey="Donnelly, Ca" uniqKey="Donnelly 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<front><journal-meta><journal-id journal-id-type="nlm-ta">Risk Anal</journal-id><journal-id journal-id-type="iso-abbrev">Risk Anal</journal-id><journal-id journal-id-type="publisher-id">risa</journal-id><journal-title-group><journal-title>Risk Analysis</journal-title></journal-title-group><issn pub-type="ppub">0272-4332</issn><issn pub-type="epub">1539-6924</issn><publisher><publisher-name>BlackWell Publishing Ltd</publisher-name><publisher-loc>Oxford, UK</publisher-loc></publisher></journal-meta><article-meta><article-id pub-id-type="pmid">25041625</article-id><article-id pub-id-type="pmc">4238841</article-id><article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.1111/risa.12253</article-id><article-categories><subj-group subj-group-type="heading"><subject>Original Research Articles</subject></subj-group></article-categories><title-group><article-title>A Scenario-Based Evaluation of the Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus and the Hajj</article-title></title-group><contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Gardner</surname><given-names>Lauren M</given-names></name><xref ref-type="aff" rid="au1"></xref><xref ref-type="aff" rid="au2"></xref><xref ref-type="corresp" rid="cor1"></xref></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Rey</surname><given-names>David</given-names></name><xref ref-type="aff" rid="au1"></xref></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Heywood</surname><given-names>Anita E</given-names></name><xref ref-type="aff" rid="au3"></xref></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Toms</surname><given-names>Renin</given-names></name><xref ref-type="aff" rid="au3"></xref></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Wood</surname><given-names>James</given-names></name><xref ref-type="aff" rid="au3"></xref></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Travis Waller</surname><given-names>S</given-names></name><xref ref-type="aff" rid="au1"></xref><xref ref-type="aff" rid="au2"></xref></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Raina MacIntyre</surname><given-names>C</given-names></name><xref ref-type="aff" rid="au3"></xref></contrib><aff id="au1"><label>1</label><institution>School of Civil and Environmental Engineering, The University of New South Wales</institution><addr-line>Sydney, NSW, 2052, Australia</addr-line></aff><aff id="au2"><label>2</label><institution>NICTA</institution><addr-line>Sydney, NSW, 2052, Australia</addr-line></aff><aff id="au3"><label>3</label><institution>School of Public Health and Community Medicine, Faculty of Medicine, University of New South Wales</institution><addr-line>Sydney, NSW, 2052, Australia</addr-line></aff></contrib-group><author-notes><corresp id="cor1">Address correspondence to Lauren M. Gardner, School of Civil and Environmental Engineering, The University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW 2052, Australia; <email>l.gardner@unsw.edu.au</email>.
</corresp></author-notes><pub-date pub-type="ppub"><month>1</month><year>2014</year></pub-date><pub-date pub-type="epub"><day>01</day><month>1</month><year>2014</year></pub-date><volume>34</volume><issue>8</issue><fpage>1391</fpage><lpage>1400</lpage><permissions><copyright-statement>© 2014 Society for Risk Analysis</copyright-statement><copyright-year>2014</copyright-year><license license-type="open-access" xlink:href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0/"><license-p>This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivs License, which permits use and distribution in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited, the use is non-commercial and no modifications or adaptations are made.</license-p></license></permissions><abstract><p>Between April 2012 and June 2014, 820 laboratory-confirmed cases of the Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) have been reported in the Arabian Peninsula, Europe, North Africa, Southeast Asia, the Middle East, and the United States. The observed epidemiology is different to SARS, which showed a classic epidemic curve and was over in eight months. The much longer persistence of MERS-CoV in the population, with a lower reproductive number, some evidence of human-to-human transmission but an otherwise sporadic pattern, is difficult to explain. Using available epidemiological data, we implemented mathematical models to explore the transmission dynamics of MERS-CoV in the context of mass gatherings such as the Hajj pilgrimage, and found a discrepancy between the observed and expected epidemiology. The fact that no epidemic occurred in returning Hajj pilgrims in either 2012 or 2013 contradicts the long persistence of the virus in human populations. The explanations for this discrepancy include an ongoing, repeated nonhuman/sporadic source, a large proportion of undetected or unreported human-to-human cases, or a combination of the two. Furthermore, MERS-CoV is occurring in a region that is a major global transport hub and hosts significant mass gatherings, making it imperative to understand the source and means of the yet unexplained and puzzling ongoing persistence of the virus in the human population.</p></abstract><kwd-group><kwd>Epidemiology</kwd><kwd>Hajj</kwd><kwd>mass gatherings</kwd><kwd>MERS-CoV</kwd><kwd>models</kwd></kwd-group></article-meta></front></pmc><affiliations><list></list><tree><noCountry><name sortKey="Gardner, Lauren M" sort="Gardner, Lauren M" uniqKey="Gardner L" first="Lauren M" last="Gardner">Lauren M. Gardner</name><name sortKey="Heywood, Anita E" sort="Heywood, Anita E" uniqKey="Heywood A" first="Anita E" last="Heywood">Anita E. Heywood</name><name sortKey="Raina Macintyre, C" sort="Raina Macintyre, C" uniqKey="Raina Macintyre C" first="C" last="Raina Macintyre">C. Raina Macintyre</name><name sortKey="Rey, David" sort="Rey, David" uniqKey="Rey D" first="David" last="Rey">David Rey</name><name sortKey="Toms, Renin" sort="Toms, Renin" uniqKey="Toms R" first="Renin" last="Toms">Renin Toms</name><name sortKey="Travis Waller, S" sort="Travis Waller, S" uniqKey="Travis Waller S" first="S" last="Travis Waller">S. Travis Waller</name><name sortKey="Wood, James" sort="Wood, James" uniqKey="Wood J" first="James" last="Wood">James Wood</name></noCountry></tree></affiliations></record>Pour manipuler ce document sous Unix (Dilib)
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