Risk Assessment of Novel Coronavirus COVID-19 Outbreaks Outside China.
Identifieur interne : 000923 ( Ncbi/Merge ); précédent : 000922; suivant : 000924Risk Assessment of Novel Coronavirus COVID-19 Outbreaks Outside China.
Auteurs : Péter Boldog [Hongrie] ; Tamás Tekeli [Hongrie] ; Zsolt Vizi [Hongrie] ; Attila Dénes [Hongrie] ; Ferenc A. Bartha [Hongrie] ; Gergely Röst [Hongrie]Source :
- Journal of clinical medicine [ 2077-0383 ] ; 2020.
Abstract
We developed a computational tool to assess the risks of novel coronavirus outbreaks outside of China. We estimate the dependence of the risk of a major outbreak in a country from imported cases on key parameters such as: (i) the evolution of the cumulative number of cases in mainland China outside the closed areas; (ii) the connectivity of the destination country with China, including baseline travel frequencies, the effect of travel restrictions, and the efficacy of entry screening at destination; and (iii) the efficacy of control measures in the destination country (expressed by the local reproduction number R loc ). We found that in countries with low connectivity to China but with relatively high R loc , the most beneficial control measure to reduce the risk of outbreaks is a further reduction in their importation number either by entry screening or travel restrictions. Countries with high connectivity but low R loc benefit the most from policies that further reduce R loc . Countries in the middle should consider a combination of such policies. Risk assessments were illustrated for selected groups of countries from America, Asia, and Europe. We investigated how their risks depend on those parameters, and how the risk is increasing in time as the number of cases in China is growing.
DOI: 10.3390/jcm9020571
PubMed: 32093043
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Bartha</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>Bolyai Institute, University of Szeged, H-6720 Szeged, Hungary.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">Hongrie</country><wicri:regionArea>Bolyai Institute, University of Szeged, H-6720 Szeged</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>H-6720 Szeged</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Rost, Gergely" sort="Rost, Gergely" uniqKey="Rost G" first="Gergely" last="Röst">Gergely Röst</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>Bolyai Institute, University of Szeged, H-6720 Szeged, Hungary.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">Hongrie</country><wicri:regionArea>Bolyai Institute, University of Szeged, H-6720 Szeged</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>H-6720 Szeged</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author></analytic><series><title level="j">Journal of clinical medicine</title><idno type="ISSN">2077-0383</idno><imprint><date when="2020" type="published">2020</date></imprint></series></biblStruct></sourceDesc></fileDesc><profileDesc><textClass></textClass></profileDesc></teiHeader><front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en">We developed a computational tool to assess the risks of novel coronavirus outbreaks outside of China. We estimate the dependence of the risk of a major outbreak in a country from imported cases on key parameters such as: (i) the evolution of the cumulative number of cases in mainland China outside the closed areas; (ii) the connectivity of the destination country with China, including baseline travel frequencies, the effect of travel restrictions, and the efficacy of entry screening at destination; and (iii) the efficacy of control measures in the destination country (expressed by the local reproduction number R loc ). We found that in countries with low connectivity to China but with relatively high R loc , the most beneficial control measure to reduce the risk of outbreaks is a further reduction in their importation number either by entry screening or travel restrictions. Countries with high connectivity but low R loc benefit the most from policies that further reduce R loc . Countries in the middle should consider a combination of such policies. Risk assessments were illustrated for selected groups of countries from America, Asia, and Europe. We investigated how their risks depend on those parameters, and how the risk is increasing in time as the number of cases in China is growing.</div></front></TEI><pubmed><MedlineCitation Status="PubMed-not-MEDLINE" Owner="NLM"><PMID Version="1">32093043</PMID><DateRevised><Year>2020</Year><Month>02</Month><Day>25</Day></DateRevised><Article PubModel="Electronic"><Journal><ISSN IssnType="Print">2077-0383</ISSN><JournalIssue CitedMedium="Print"><Volume>9</Volume><Issue>2</Issue><PubDate><Year>2020</Year><Month>Feb</Month><Day>19</Day></PubDate></JournalIssue><Title>Journal of clinical medicine</Title><ISOAbbreviation>J Clin Med</ISOAbbreviation></Journal><ArticleTitle>Risk Assessment of Novel Coronavirus COVID-19 Outbreaks Outside China.</ArticleTitle><ELocationID EIdType="pii" ValidYN="Y">E571</ELocationID><ELocationID EIdType="doi" ValidYN="Y">10.3390/jcm9020571</ELocationID><Abstract><AbstractText>We developed a computational tool to assess the risks of novel coronavirus outbreaks outside of China. We estimate the dependence of the risk of a major outbreak in a country from imported cases on key parameters such as: (i) the evolution of the cumulative number of cases in mainland China outside the closed areas; (ii) the connectivity of the destination country with China, including baseline travel frequencies, the effect of travel restrictions, and the efficacy of entry screening at destination; and (iii) the efficacy of control measures in the destination country (expressed by the local reproduction number R loc ). We found that in countries with low connectivity to China but with relatively high R loc , the most beneficial control measure to reduce the risk of outbreaks is a further reduction in their importation number either by entry screening or travel restrictions. Countries with high connectivity but low R loc benefit the most from policies that further reduce R loc . Countries in the middle should consider a combination of such policies. Risk assessments were illustrated for selected groups of countries from America, Asia, and Europe. We investigated how their risks depend on those parameters, and how the risk is increasing in time as the number of cases in China is growing.</AbstractText></Abstract><AuthorList CompleteYN="Y"><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Boldog</LastName><ForeName>Péter</ForeName><Initials>P</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Bolyai Institute, University of Szeged, H-6720 Szeged, Hungary.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Tekeli</LastName><ForeName>Tamás</ForeName><Initials>T</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Bolyai Institute, University of Szeged, H-6720 Szeged, Hungary.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Vizi</LastName><ForeName>Zsolt</ForeName><Initials>Z</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Bolyai Institute, University of Szeged, H-6720 Szeged, Hungary.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Dénes</LastName><ForeName>Attila</ForeName><Initials>A</Initials><Identifier Source="ORCID">0000-0003-1827-7932</Identifier><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Bolyai Institute, University of Szeged, H-6720 Szeged, Hungary.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Bartha</LastName><ForeName>Ferenc A</ForeName><Initials>FA</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Bolyai Institute, University of Szeged, H-6720 Szeged, Hungary.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Röst</LastName><ForeName>Gergely</ForeName><Initials>G</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Bolyai Institute, University of Szeged, H-6720 Szeged, Hungary.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author></AuthorList><Language>eng</Language><GrantList CompleteYN="Y"><Grant><GrantID>KKP 129877</GrantID><Agency>Nemzeti Kutatási Fejlesztési és Innovációs Hivatal</Agency><Country></Country></Grant><Grant><GrantID>FK 124016</GrantID><Agency>Nemzeti Kutatási Fejlesztési és Innovációs Hivatal</Agency><Country></Country></Grant><Grant><GrantID>PD 128363</GrantID><Agency>Nemzeti Kutatási Fejlesztési és Innovációs Hivatal</Agency><Country></Country></Grant><Grant><GrantID>János Bolyai Research Scholarship</GrantID><Agency>Magyar Tudományos Akadémia</Agency><Country></Country></Grant><Grant><GrantID>20391-3/2018/FEKUSTRAT</GrantID><Agency>Emberi Eroforrások Minisztériuma</Agency><Country></Country></Grant><Grant><GrantID>EFOP-3.6.1-16-2016-00008</GrantID><Agency>Emberi Eroforrások Minisztériuma</Agency><Country></Country></Grant></GrantList><PublicationTypeList><PublicationType UI="D016428">Journal Article</PublicationType></PublicationTypeList><ArticleDate DateType="Electronic"><Year>2020</Year><Month>02</Month><Day>19</Day></ArticleDate></Article><MedlineJournalInfo><Country>Switzerland</Country><MedlineTA>J Clin Med</MedlineTA><NlmUniqueID>101606588</NlmUniqueID><ISSNLinking>2077-0383</ISSNLinking></MedlineJournalInfo><KeywordList Owner="NOTNLM"><Keyword MajorTopicYN="N">COVID-19</Keyword><Keyword MajorTopicYN="N">branching process</Keyword><Keyword MajorTopicYN="N">compartmental model</Keyword><Keyword MajorTopicYN="N">interventions</Keyword><Keyword MajorTopicYN="N">novel coronavirus</Keyword><Keyword MajorTopicYN="N">outbreak</Keyword><Keyword MajorTopicYN="N">risk assessment</Keyword><Keyword MajorTopicYN="N">transmission</Keyword><Keyword MajorTopicYN="N">travel</Keyword></KeywordList></MedlineCitation><PubmedData><History><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="received"><Year>2020</Year><Month>02</Month><Day>05</Day></PubMedPubDate><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="revised"><Year>2020</Year><Month>02</Month><Day>13</Day></PubMedPubDate><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="accepted"><Year>2020</Year><Month>02</Month><Day>14</Day></PubMedPubDate><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="entrez"><Year>2020</Year><Month>2</Month><Day>26</Day><Hour>6</Hour><Minute>0</Minute></PubMedPubDate><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="pubmed"><Year>2020</Year><Month>2</Month><Day>26</Day><Hour>6</Hour><Minute>0</Minute></PubMedPubDate><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="medline"><Year>2020</Year><Month>2</Month><Day>26</Day><Hour>6</Hour><Minute>1</Minute></PubMedPubDate></History><PublicationStatus>epublish</PublicationStatus><ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">32093043</ArticleId><ArticleId IdType="pii">jcm9020571</ArticleId><ArticleId IdType="doi">10.3390/jcm9020571</ArticleId></ArticleIdList></PubmedData></pubmed><affiliations><list><country><li>Hongrie</li></country></list><tree><country name="Hongrie"><noRegion><name sortKey="Boldog, Peter" sort="Boldog, Peter" uniqKey="Boldog P" first="Péter" last="Boldog">Péter Boldog</name></noRegion><name sortKey="Bartha, Ferenc A" sort="Bartha, Ferenc A" uniqKey="Bartha F" first="Ferenc A" last="Bartha">Ferenc A. Bartha</name><name sortKey="Denes, Attila" sort="Denes, Attila" uniqKey="Denes A" first="Attila" last="Dénes">Attila Dénes</name><name sortKey="Rost, Gergely" sort="Rost, Gergely" uniqKey="Rost G" first="Gergely" last="Röst">Gergely Röst</name><name sortKey="Tekeli, Tamas" sort="Tekeli, Tamas" uniqKey="Tekeli T" first="Tamás" last="Tekeli">Tamás Tekeli</name><name sortKey="Vizi, Zsolt" sort="Vizi, Zsolt" uniqKey="Vizi Z" first="Zsolt" last="Vizi">Zsolt Vizi</name></country></tree></affiliations></record>Pour manipuler ce document sous Unix (Dilib)
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