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Understanding the Risk of an Avian Flu Pandemic: Rational Waiting or Precautionary Failure?

Identifieur interne : 000F46 ( Main/Curation ); précédent : 000F45; suivant : 000F47

Understanding the Risk of an Avian Flu Pandemic: Rational Waiting or Precautionary Failure?

Auteurs : Marcello Basili [Italie] ; Maurizio Franzini

Source :

Risk Analysis [ 0272-4332 ] ; 2006-06.

RBID : ISTEX:B4589CD6C32B4B9BABF2A5CD43081C529538AC70

English descriptors

Teeft :
- Actual cost, Adequate quantities, Agency costs, Agency problems, Agriculture organization, Ambiguity, Ambiguity attitude, Antiviral, Antiviral drug, Antiviral drugs, Antiviral stockpiling, Available information, Aventis pasteur, Avian, Avian viruses, Basili, Best strategy, Catastrophic consequences, Chiron corporation, Compensation scheme, Compound probability, Crucial feature, Decision tree, Decisional framework, Direct contact, Discount rate, Disease control, Early warnings, Economia politica, Economic studies, Effort level, Equivalent strategies, European commission, Extreme risks, Franzini, Full certainty, Good reasons, High effort, Hong kong, Human beings, Incentive problems, Incomplete contracts, Incomplete knowledge, Lottery, Maximization problem, Monetary transfer, More information, Next pandemic, Nonmarket failures, Optimal strategy, Oseltamivir, Other hand, Other things, Outbreak, Pandemic, Pharmaceutical, Possible outbreak, Possible pandemic, Precautionary, Precautionary attitude, Precautionary course, Precautionary failure, Precautionary principle, Rational approach, Rational course, Rational decisions, Rationality, Relenza, Relevant data, Reliable probability, Reservation utility level, Risk analysis, Scenario, Side effects, Similar cases, Stockpiling, Stockpiling drugs, Strong version, Therapeutic treatment, Utility function, Vaccine, Virus, Weak version.

Abstract

The precautionary principle (PP) has been proposed as the proper guide for the decision‐making criteria to be adopted in the face of the new catastrophic risks that have arisen in the last decades. This article puts forward a workable definition of the PP based on the so‐called α‐maximin expected utility approach, applying it to the possible outbreak of the avian flu disease among humans. Moreover, it shows how the shortage and/or lack of effective drugs against the infection of the virus A(H5N1) among humans can be considered a precautionary failure.

Url:

https://api.istex.fr/ark:/67375/WNG-S3RBQTC7-L/fulltext.pdf

DOI: 10.1111/j.1539-6924.2006.00761.x

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ISTEX:B4589CD6C32B4B9BABF2A5CD43081C529538AC70

Le document en format XML

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<term>Ambiguity attitude</term>
<term>Antiviral</term>
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<term>Avian viruses</term>
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Understanding the Risk of an Avian Flu Pandemic: Rational Waiting or Precautionary Failure?

Understanding the Risk of an Avian Flu Pandemic: Rational Waiting or Precautionary Failure?

Source :

English descriptors

Abstract

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Links to Exploration step

Le document en format XML

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