Understanding the Risk of an Avian Flu Pandemic: Rational Waiting or Precautionary Failure?
Identifieur interne : 000869 ( Istex/Corpus ); précédent : 000868; suivant : 000870Understanding the Risk of an Avian Flu Pandemic: Rational Waiting or Precautionary Failure?
Auteurs : Marcello Basili ; Maurizio FranziniSource :
- Risk Analysis [ 0272-4332 ] ; 2006-06.
English descriptors
- Teeft :
- Actual cost, Adequate quantities, Agency costs, Agency problems, Agriculture organization, Ambiguity, Ambiguity attitude, Antiviral, Antiviral drug, Antiviral drugs, Antiviral stockpiling, Available information, Aventis pasteur, Avian, Avian viruses, Basili, Best strategy, Catastrophic consequences, Chiron corporation, Compensation scheme, Compound probability, Crucial feature, Decision tree, Decisional framework, Direct contact, Discount rate, Disease control, Early warnings, Economia politica, Economic studies, Effort level, Equivalent strategies, European commission, Extreme risks, Franzini, Full certainty, Good reasons, High effort, Hong kong, Human beings, Incentive problems, Incomplete contracts, Incomplete knowledge, Lottery, Maximization problem, Monetary transfer, More information, Next pandemic, Nonmarket failures, Optimal strategy, Oseltamivir, Other hand, Other things, Outbreak, Pandemic, Pharmaceutical, Possible outbreak, Possible pandemic, Precautionary, Precautionary attitude, Precautionary course, Precautionary failure, Precautionary principle, Rational approach, Rational course, Rational decisions, Rationality, Relenza, Relevant data, Reliable probability, Reservation utility level, Risk analysis, Scenario, Side effects, Similar cases, Stockpiling, Stockpiling drugs, Strong version, Therapeutic treatment, Utility function, Vaccine, Virus, Weak version.
Abstract
The precautionary principle (PP) has been proposed as the proper guide for the decision‐making criteria to be adopted in the face of the new catastrophic risks that have arisen in the last decades. This article puts forward a workable definition of the PP based on the so‐called α‐maximin expected utility approach, applying it to the possible outbreak of the avian flu disease among humans. Moreover, it shows how the shortage and/or lack of effective drugs against the infection of the virus A(H5N1) among humans can be considered a precautionary failure.
Url:
DOI: 10.1111/j.1539-6924.2006.00761.x
Links to Exploration step
ISTEX:B4589CD6C32B4B9BABF2A5CD43081C529538AC70Le document en format XML
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*Address correspondence to Marcello Basili, Dipartimento di Economia Politica, Facoltà di Economia R. Goodwin, Università di Siena, Piazza San Francesco 7, 53100 Siena, Italy; <email>basili@unisi.it</email>.</correspondenceTo><objectNameGroup><objectName elementName="appendix">Appendix</objectName></objectNameGroup><linkGroup><link type="toTypesetVersion" href="file:RISA.RISA761.pdf"></link></linkGroup></publicationMeta><contentMeta><countGroup><count type="figureTotal" number="3"></count><count type="tableTotal" number="0"></count><count type="formulaTotal" number="57"></count><count type="referenceTotal" number="26"></count><count type="linksCrossRef" number="81"></count></countGroup><titleGroup><title type="main">Understanding the Risk of an Avian Flu Pandemic: Rational Waiting or Precautionary Failure?</title><title type="shortAuthors"><b>Basili and Franzini</b></title><title type="short"><b>Understanding the Risk of an Avian Flu Pandemic</b></title></titleGroup><creators><creator creatorRole="author" xml:id="cr1" noteRef="#fn1" corresponding="yes"><personName><givenNames>Marcello</givenNames><familyName>Basili</familyName></personName></creator><creator creatorRole="author" xml:id="cr2" noteRef="#fn2"><personName><givenNames>Maurizio</givenNames><familyName>Franzini</familyName></personName></creator></creators><affiliationGroup><affiliation xml:id="fn1"><unparsedAffiliation>Dipartimento di Economia Politica, Facoltà di Economia R. Goodwin, Università di Siena, Piazza San Francesco 7, 53100 Siena, Italy.</unparsedAffiliation></affiliation><affiliation xml:id="fn2" countryCode="IT"><unparsedAffiliation>Dipartimento di Economia Pubblica, Università di Roma La Sapienza, Via Castro Laurenziano 9, Roma, Italy.</unparsedAffiliation></affiliation></affiliationGroup><keywordGroup xml:lang="en"><keyword xml:id="k1">Ambiguity</keyword><keyword xml:id="k2">avian flu</keyword><keyword xml:id="k3">multiple priors</keyword><keyword xml:id="k4">precautionary principle</keyword></keywordGroup><abstractGroup><abstract type="main" xml:lang="en"><p>The precautionary principle (PP) has been proposed as the proper guide for the decision‐making criteria to be adopted in the face of the new catastrophic risks that have arisen in the last decades. This article puts forward a workable definition of the PP based on the so‐called α‐maximin expected utility approach, applying it to the possible outbreak of the avian flu disease among humans. Moreover, it shows how the shortage and/or lack of effective drugs against the infection of the virus A(H5N1) among humans can be considered a precautionary failure.</p></abstract></abstractGroup></contentMeta></header></component></istex:document></istex:metadataXml><mods version="3.6"><titleInfo lang="en"><title>Understanding the Risk of an Avian Flu Pandemic: Rational Waiting or Precautionary Failure?</title></titleInfo><titleInfo type="abbreviated" lang="en"><title>Understanding the Risk of an Avian Flu Pandemic</title></titleInfo><titleInfo type="alternative" contentType="CDATA" lang="en"><title>Understanding the Risk of an Avian Flu Pandemic: Rational Waiting or Precautionary Failure?</title></titleInfo><name type="personal"><namePart type="given">Marcello</namePart><namePart type="family">Basili</namePart><affiliation>E-mail: basili@unisi.it</affiliation><role><roleTerm type="text">author</roleTerm></role></name><name type="personal"><namePart type="given">Maurizio</namePart><namePart type="family">Franzini</namePart><role><roleTerm type="text">author</roleTerm></role></name><typeOfResource>text</typeOfResource><genre type="article" displayLabel="article" authority="ISTEX" authorityURI="https://content-type.data.istex.fr" valueURI="https://content-type.data.istex.fr/ark:/67375/XTP-6N5SZHKN-D">article</genre><originInfo><publisher>Blackwell Publishing Inc</publisher><place><placeTerm type="text">Malden, USA</placeTerm></place><dateIssued encoding="w3cdtf">2006-06</dateIssued><copyrightDate encoding="w3cdtf">2006</copyrightDate></originInfo><language><languageTerm type="code" authority="rfc3066">en</languageTerm><languageTerm type="code" authority="iso639-2b">eng</languageTerm></language><physicalDescription><extent unit="figures">3</extent><extent unit="tables">0</extent><extent unit="formulas">57</extent><extent unit="references">26</extent><extent unit="linksCrossRef">81</extent></physicalDescription><abstract lang="en">The precautionary principle (PP) has been proposed as the proper guide for the decision‐making criteria to be adopted in the face of the new catastrophic risks that have arisen in the last decades. This article puts forward a workable definition of the PP based on the so‐called α‐maximin expected utility approach, applying it to the possible outbreak of the avian flu disease among humans. 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