Effects of age-targeted sequestration for COVID-19.
Identifieur interne : 000620 ( Main/Exploration ); précédent : 000619; suivant : 000621Effects of age-targeted sequestration for COVID-19.
Auteurs : Alastair Jamieson-Lane [Allemagne] ; Eric Cytrynbaum [Canada]Source :
- Journal of biological dynamics [ 1751-3766 ] ; 2020.
Descripteurs français
- KwdFr :
- Adolescent (MeSH), Adulte (MeSH), Adulte d'âge moyen (MeSH), Betacoronavirus (MeSH), Contrôle des maladies transmissibles (méthodes), Enfant (MeSH), Enfant d'âge préscolaire (MeSH), Facteurs de risque (MeSH), Facteurs âges (MeSH), Femelle (MeSH), Hospitalisation (MeSH), Humains (MeSH), Infections à coronavirus (prévention et contrôle), Infections à coronavirus (transmission), Infections à coronavirus (épidémiologie), Isolement du patient (méthodes), Jeune adulte (MeSH), Modèles biologiques (MeSH), Mâle (MeSH), Nourrisson (MeSH), Nouveau-né (MeSH), Nouvelle-Zélande (épidémiologie), Pandémies (prévention et contrôle), Pneumopathie virale (prévention et contrôle), Pneumopathie virale (transmission), Pneumopathie virale (épidémiologie), Quarantaine (méthodes), Simulation numérique (MeSH), Soins de réanimation (MeSH), Sujet âgé (MeSH), Sujet âgé de 80 ans ou plus (MeSH), Unités de soins intensifs (ressources et distribution).
- MESH :
- méthodes : Contrôle des maladies transmissibles, Isolement du patient, Quarantaine.
- prévention et contrôle : Infections à coronavirus, Pandémies, Pneumopathie virale.
- ressources et distribution : Unités de soins intensifs.
- épidémiologie : Infections à coronavirus, Nouvelle-Zélande, Pneumopathie virale.
- Adolescent, Adulte, Adulte d'âge moyen, Betacoronavirus, Enfant, Enfant d'âge préscolaire, Facteurs de risque, Facteurs âges, Femelle, Hospitalisation, Humains, Jeune adulte, Modèles biologiques, Mâle, Nourrisson, Nouveau-né, Simulation numérique, Soins de réanimation, Sujet âgé, Sujet âgé de 80 ans ou plus.
- Wicri :
- geographic : Nouvelle-Zélande.
English descriptors
- KwdEn :
- Adolescent (MeSH), Adult (MeSH), Age Factors (MeSH), Aged (MeSH), Aged, 80 and over (MeSH), Betacoronavirus (MeSH), Child (MeSH), Child, Preschool (MeSH), Communicable Disease Control (methods), Computer Simulation (MeSH), Coronavirus Infections (epidemiology), Coronavirus Infections (prevention & control), Coronavirus Infections (transmission), Critical Care (MeSH), Female (MeSH), Hospitalization (MeSH), Humans (MeSH), Infant (MeSH), Infant, Newborn (MeSH), Intensive Care Units (supply & distribution), Male (MeSH), Middle Aged (MeSH), Models, Biological (MeSH), New Zealand (epidemiology), Pandemics (prevention & control), Patient Isolation (methods), Pneumonia, Viral (epidemiology), Pneumonia, Viral (prevention & control), Pneumonia, Viral (transmission), Quarantine (methods), Risk Factors (MeSH), Young Adult (MeSH).
- MESH :
- geographic , epidemiology : New Zealand.
- epidemiology : Coronavirus Infections, Pneumonia, Viral.
- methods : Communicable Disease Control, Patient Isolation, Quarantine.
- prevention & control : Coronavirus Infections, Pandemics, Pneumonia, Viral.
- supply & distribution : Intensive Care Units.
- transmission : Coronavirus Infections, Pneumonia, Viral.
- Adolescent, Adult, Age Factors, Aged, Aged, 80 and over, Betacoronavirus, Child, Child, Preschool, Computer Simulation, Critical Care, Female, Hospitalization, Humans, Infant, Infant, Newborn, Male, Middle Aged, Models, Biological, Risk Factors, Young Adult.
Abstract
We model the extent to which age-targeted protective sequestration can be used to reduce ICU admissions caused by novel coronavirus COVID-19. Using demographic data from New Zealand, we demonstrate that lowering the age threshold to 50 years of age reduces ICU admissions drastically and show that for sufficiently strict isolation protocols, sequestering one-third of the countries population for a total of 8 months is sufficient to avoid overwhelming ICU capacity throughout the entire course of the epidemic. Similar results are expected to hold for other countries, though some minor adaption will be required based on local age demographics and hospital facilities.
DOI: 10.1080/17513758.2020.1795285
PubMed: 32715932
Affiliations:
Links toward previous steps (curation, corpus...)
Le document en format XML
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<term>Aged, 80 and over (MeSH)</term>
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<term>Pneumopathie virale (épidémiologie)</term>
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<term>Adult</term>
<term>Age Factors</term>
<term>Aged</term>
<term>Aged, 80 and over</term>
<term>Betacoronavirus</term>
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<front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en">We model the extent to which age-targeted protective sequestration can be used to reduce ICU admissions caused by novel coronavirus COVID-19. Using demographic data from New Zealand, we demonstrate that lowering the age threshold to 50 years of age reduces ICU admissions drastically and show that for sufficiently strict isolation protocols, sequestering one-third of the countries population for a total of 8 months is sufficient to avoid overwhelming ICU capacity throughout the entire course of the epidemic. Similar results are expected to hold for other countries, though some minor adaption will be required based on local age demographics and hospital facilities.</div>
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