Developing a COVID-19 mortality risk prediction model when individual-level data are not available.
Identifieur interne : 000319 ( Main/Corpus ); précédent : 000318; suivant : 000320Developing a COVID-19 mortality risk prediction model when individual-level data are not available.
Auteurs : Noam Barda ; Dan Riesel ; Amichay Akriv ; Joseph Levy ; Uriah Finkel ; Gal Yona ; Daniel Greenfeld ; Shimon Sheiba ; Jonathan Somer ; Eitan Bachmat ; Guy N. Rothblum ; Uri Shalit ; Doron Netzer ; Ran Balicer ; Noa DaganSource :
- Nature communications [ 2041-1723 ] ; 2020.
English descriptors
- KwdEn :
- Adolescent (MeSH), Adult (MeSH), Aged (MeSH), Aged, 80 and over (MeSH), Betacoronavirus (isolation & purification), Child (MeSH), Cohort Studies (MeSH), Coronavirus Infections (mortality), Coronavirus Infections (virology), Female (MeSH), Forecasting (MeSH), Humans (MeSH), Israel (epidemiology), Male (MeSH), Middle Aged (MeSH), Models, Statistical (MeSH), Pandemics (MeSH), Pneumonia, Viral (mortality), Pneumonia, Viral (virology), ROC Curve (MeSH), Retrospective Studies (MeSH), Risk Factors (MeSH), Young Adult (MeSH).
- MESH :
- geographic , epidemiology : Israel.
- isolation & purification : Betacoronavirus.
- mortality : Coronavirus Infections, Pneumonia, Viral.
- virology : Coronavirus Infections, Pneumonia, Viral.
- Adolescent, Adult, Aged, Aged, 80 and over, Child, Cohort Studies, Female, Forecasting, Humans, Male, Middle Aged, Models, Statistical, Pandemics, ROC Curve, Retrospective Studies, Risk Factors, Young Adult.
Abstract
At the COVID-19 pandemic onset, when individual-level data of COVID-19 patients were not yet available, there was already a need for risk predictors to support prevention and treatment decisions. Here, we report a hybrid strategy to create such a predictor, combining the development of a baseline severe respiratory infection risk predictor and a post-processing method to calibrate the predictions to reported COVID-19 case-fatality rates. With the accumulation of a COVID-19 patient cohort, this predictor is validated to have good discrimination (area under the receiver-operating characteristics curve of 0.943) and calibration (markedly improved compared to that of the baseline predictor). At a 5% risk threshold, 15% of patients are marked as high-risk, achieving a sensitivity of 88%. We thus demonstrate that even at the onset of a pandemic, shrouded in epidemiologic fog of war, it is possible to provide a useful risk predictor, now widely used in a large healthcare organization.
DOI: 10.1038/s41467-020-18297-9
PubMed: 32895375
PubMed Central: PMC7477233
Links to Exploration step
pubmed:32895375Le document en format XML
<record><TEI><teiHeader><fileDesc><titleStmt><title xml:lang="en">Developing a COVID-19 mortality risk prediction model when individual-level data are not available.</title>
<author><name sortKey="Barda, Noam" sort="Barda, Noam" uniqKey="Barda N" first="Noam" last="Barda">Noam Barda</name>
<affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Clalit Research Institute, Innovation Division, Clalit Health Services, Toval 40, Ramat-Gan, Israel.</nlm:affiliation>
</affiliation>
<affiliation><nlm:affiliation>School of Public Health, Faculty of Health Sciences, Ben Gurion University of the Negev, Ben-Gurion blvd. 1, Be'er Sheva, Israel.</nlm:affiliation>
</affiliation>
<affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Department of Computer Science, Ben Gurion University of the Negev, Ben-Gurion blvd. 1, Be'er Sheva, Israel.</nlm:affiliation>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Riesel, Dan" sort="Riesel, Dan" uniqKey="Riesel D" first="Dan" last="Riesel">Dan Riesel</name>
<affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Clalit Research Institute, Innovation Division, Clalit Health Services, Toval 40, Ramat-Gan, Israel.</nlm:affiliation>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Akriv, Amichay" sort="Akriv, Amichay" uniqKey="Akriv A" first="Amichay" last="Akriv">Amichay Akriv</name>
<affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Clalit Research Institute, Innovation Division, Clalit Health Services, Toval 40, Ramat-Gan, Israel.</nlm:affiliation>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Levy, Joseph" sort="Levy, Joseph" uniqKey="Levy J" first="Joseph" last="Levy">Joseph Levy</name>
<affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Clalit Research Institute, Innovation Division, Clalit Health Services, Toval 40, Ramat-Gan, Israel.</nlm:affiliation>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Finkel, Uriah" sort="Finkel, Uriah" uniqKey="Finkel U" first="Uriah" last="Finkel">Uriah Finkel</name>
<affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Clalit Research Institute, Innovation Division, Clalit Health Services, Toval 40, Ramat-Gan, Israel.</nlm:affiliation>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Yona, Gal" sort="Yona, Gal" uniqKey="Yona G" first="Gal" last="Yona">Gal Yona</name>
<affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Department of Computer Science and Applied Mathematics, Weizmann Institute of Science, Herzl 234, Rehovot, Israel.</nlm:affiliation>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Greenfeld, Daniel" sort="Greenfeld, Daniel" uniqKey="Greenfeld D" first="Daniel" last="Greenfeld">Daniel Greenfeld</name>
<affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Faculty of Industrial Engineering and Management, Technion University, Haifa, Israel.</nlm:affiliation>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Sheiba, Shimon" sort="Sheiba, Shimon" uniqKey="Sheiba S" first="Shimon" last="Sheiba">Shimon Sheiba</name>
<affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Faculty of Industrial Engineering and Management, Technion University, Haifa, Israel.</nlm:affiliation>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Somer, Jonathan" sort="Somer, Jonathan" uniqKey="Somer J" first="Jonathan" last="Somer">Jonathan Somer</name>
<affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Faculty of Industrial Engineering and Management, Technion University, Haifa, Israel.</nlm:affiliation>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Bachmat, Eitan" sort="Bachmat, Eitan" uniqKey="Bachmat E" first="Eitan" last="Bachmat">Eitan Bachmat</name>
<affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Department of Computer Science, Ben Gurion University of the Negev, Ben-Gurion blvd. 1, Be'er Sheva, Israel.</nlm:affiliation>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Rothblum, Guy N" sort="Rothblum, Guy N" uniqKey="Rothblum G" first="Guy N" last="Rothblum">Guy N. Rothblum</name>
<affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Department of Computer Science and Applied Mathematics, Weizmann Institute of Science, Herzl 234, Rehovot, Israel.</nlm:affiliation>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Shalit, Uri" sort="Shalit, Uri" uniqKey="Shalit U" first="Uri" last="Shalit">Uri Shalit</name>
<affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Faculty of Industrial Engineering and Management, Technion University, Haifa, Israel.</nlm:affiliation>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Netzer, Doron" sort="Netzer, Doron" uniqKey="Netzer D" first="Doron" last="Netzer">Doron Netzer</name>
<affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Community Medical Services Division, Clalit Health Services, Arlozorov 101, Tel Aviv, Israel.</nlm:affiliation>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Balicer, Ran" sort="Balicer, Ran" uniqKey="Balicer R" first="Ran" last="Balicer">Ran Balicer</name>
<affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Clalit Research Institute, Innovation Division, Clalit Health Services, Toval 40, Ramat-Gan, Israel.</nlm:affiliation>
</affiliation>
<affiliation><nlm:affiliation>School of Public Health, Faculty of Health Sciences, Ben Gurion University of the Negev, Ben-Gurion blvd. 1, Be'er Sheva, Israel.</nlm:affiliation>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Dagan, Noa" sort="Dagan, Noa" uniqKey="Dagan N" first="Noa" last="Dagan">Noa Dagan</name>
<affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Clalit Research Institute, Innovation Division, Clalit Health Services, Toval 40, Ramat-Gan, Israel. noada@clalit.org.il.</nlm:affiliation>
</affiliation>
<affiliation><nlm:affiliation>School of Public Health, Faculty of Health Sciences, Ben Gurion University of the Negev, Ben-Gurion blvd. 1, Be'er Sheva, Israel. noada@clalit.org.il.</nlm:affiliation>
</affiliation>
<affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Department of Computer Science, Ben Gurion University of the Negev, Ben-Gurion blvd. 1, Be'er Sheva, Israel. noada@clalit.org.il.</nlm:affiliation>
</affiliation>
</author>
</titleStmt>
<publicationStmt><idno type="wicri:source">PubMed</idno>
<date when="2020">2020</date>
<idno type="RBID">pubmed:32895375</idno>
<idno type="pmid">32895375</idno>
<idno type="doi">10.1038/s41467-020-18297-9</idno>
<idno type="pmc">PMC7477233</idno>
<idno type="wicri:Area/Main/Corpus">000319</idno>
<idno type="wicri:explorRef" wicri:stream="Main" wicri:step="Corpus" wicri:corpus="PubMed">000319</idno>
</publicationStmt>
<sourceDesc><biblStruct><analytic><title xml:lang="en">Developing a COVID-19 mortality risk prediction model when individual-level data are not available.</title>
<author><name sortKey="Barda, Noam" sort="Barda, Noam" uniqKey="Barda N" first="Noam" last="Barda">Noam Barda</name>
<affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Clalit Research Institute, Innovation Division, Clalit Health Services, Toval 40, Ramat-Gan, Israel.</nlm:affiliation>
</affiliation>
<affiliation><nlm:affiliation>School of Public Health, Faculty of Health Sciences, Ben Gurion University of the Negev, Ben-Gurion blvd. 1, Be'er Sheva, Israel.</nlm:affiliation>
</affiliation>
<affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Department of Computer Science, Ben Gurion University of the Negev, Ben-Gurion blvd. 1, Be'er Sheva, Israel.</nlm:affiliation>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Riesel, Dan" sort="Riesel, Dan" uniqKey="Riesel D" first="Dan" last="Riesel">Dan Riesel</name>
<affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Clalit Research Institute, Innovation Division, Clalit Health Services, Toval 40, Ramat-Gan, Israel.</nlm:affiliation>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Akriv, Amichay" sort="Akriv, Amichay" uniqKey="Akriv A" first="Amichay" last="Akriv">Amichay Akriv</name>
<affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Clalit Research Institute, Innovation Division, Clalit Health Services, Toval 40, Ramat-Gan, Israel.</nlm:affiliation>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Levy, Joseph" sort="Levy, Joseph" uniqKey="Levy J" first="Joseph" last="Levy">Joseph Levy</name>
<affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Clalit Research Institute, Innovation Division, Clalit Health Services, Toval 40, Ramat-Gan, Israel.</nlm:affiliation>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Finkel, Uriah" sort="Finkel, Uriah" uniqKey="Finkel U" first="Uriah" last="Finkel">Uriah Finkel</name>
<affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Clalit Research Institute, Innovation Division, Clalit Health Services, Toval 40, Ramat-Gan, Israel.</nlm:affiliation>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Yona, Gal" sort="Yona, Gal" uniqKey="Yona G" first="Gal" last="Yona">Gal Yona</name>
<affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Department of Computer Science and Applied Mathematics, Weizmann Institute of Science, Herzl 234, Rehovot, Israel.</nlm:affiliation>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Greenfeld, Daniel" sort="Greenfeld, Daniel" uniqKey="Greenfeld D" first="Daniel" last="Greenfeld">Daniel Greenfeld</name>
<affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Faculty of Industrial Engineering and Management, Technion University, Haifa, Israel.</nlm:affiliation>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Sheiba, Shimon" sort="Sheiba, Shimon" uniqKey="Sheiba S" first="Shimon" last="Sheiba">Shimon Sheiba</name>
<affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Faculty of Industrial Engineering and Management, Technion University, Haifa, Israel.</nlm:affiliation>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Somer, Jonathan" sort="Somer, Jonathan" uniqKey="Somer J" first="Jonathan" last="Somer">Jonathan Somer</name>
<affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Faculty of Industrial Engineering and Management, Technion University, Haifa, Israel.</nlm:affiliation>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Bachmat, Eitan" sort="Bachmat, Eitan" uniqKey="Bachmat E" first="Eitan" last="Bachmat">Eitan Bachmat</name>
<affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Department of Computer Science, Ben Gurion University of the Negev, Ben-Gurion blvd. 1, Be'er Sheva, Israel.</nlm:affiliation>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Rothblum, Guy N" sort="Rothblum, Guy N" uniqKey="Rothblum G" first="Guy N" last="Rothblum">Guy N. Rothblum</name>
<affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Department of Computer Science and Applied Mathematics, Weizmann Institute of Science, Herzl 234, Rehovot, Israel.</nlm:affiliation>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Shalit, Uri" sort="Shalit, Uri" uniqKey="Shalit U" first="Uri" last="Shalit">Uri Shalit</name>
<affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Faculty of Industrial Engineering and Management, Technion University, Haifa, Israel.</nlm:affiliation>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Netzer, Doron" sort="Netzer, Doron" uniqKey="Netzer D" first="Doron" last="Netzer">Doron Netzer</name>
<affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Community Medical Services Division, Clalit Health Services, Arlozorov 101, Tel Aviv, Israel.</nlm:affiliation>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Balicer, Ran" sort="Balicer, Ran" uniqKey="Balicer R" first="Ran" last="Balicer">Ran Balicer</name>
<affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Clalit Research Institute, Innovation Division, Clalit Health Services, Toval 40, Ramat-Gan, Israel.</nlm:affiliation>
</affiliation>
<affiliation><nlm:affiliation>School of Public Health, Faculty of Health Sciences, Ben Gurion University of the Negev, Ben-Gurion blvd. 1, Be'er Sheva, Israel.</nlm:affiliation>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Dagan, Noa" sort="Dagan, Noa" uniqKey="Dagan N" first="Noa" last="Dagan">Noa Dagan</name>
<affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Clalit Research Institute, Innovation Division, Clalit Health Services, Toval 40, Ramat-Gan, Israel. noada@clalit.org.il.</nlm:affiliation>
</affiliation>
<affiliation><nlm:affiliation>School of Public Health, Faculty of Health Sciences, Ben Gurion University of the Negev, Ben-Gurion blvd. 1, Be'er Sheva, Israel. noada@clalit.org.il.</nlm:affiliation>
</affiliation>
<affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Department of Computer Science, Ben Gurion University of the Negev, Ben-Gurion blvd. 1, Be'er Sheva, Israel. noada@clalit.org.il.</nlm:affiliation>
</affiliation>
</author>
</analytic>
<series><title level="j">Nature communications</title>
<idno type="eISSN">2041-1723</idno>
<imprint><date when="2020" type="published">2020</date>
</imprint>
</series>
</biblStruct>
</sourceDesc>
</fileDesc>
<profileDesc><textClass><keywords scheme="KwdEn" xml:lang="en"><term>Adolescent (MeSH)</term>
<term>Adult (MeSH)</term>
<term>Aged (MeSH)</term>
<term>Aged, 80 and over (MeSH)</term>
<term>Betacoronavirus (isolation & purification)</term>
<term>Child (MeSH)</term>
<term>Cohort Studies (MeSH)</term>
<term>Coronavirus Infections (mortality)</term>
<term>Coronavirus Infections (virology)</term>
<term>Female (MeSH)</term>
<term>Forecasting (MeSH)</term>
<term>Humans (MeSH)</term>
<term>Israel (epidemiology)</term>
<term>Male (MeSH)</term>
<term>Middle Aged (MeSH)</term>
<term>Models, Statistical (MeSH)</term>
<term>Pandemics (MeSH)</term>
<term>Pneumonia, Viral (mortality)</term>
<term>Pneumonia, Viral (virology)</term>
<term>ROC Curve (MeSH)</term>
<term>Retrospective Studies (MeSH)</term>
<term>Risk Factors (MeSH)</term>
<term>Young Adult (MeSH)</term>
</keywords>
<keywords scheme="MESH" type="geographic" qualifier="epidemiology" xml:lang="en"><term>Israel</term>
</keywords>
<keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="isolation & purification" xml:lang="en"><term>Betacoronavirus</term>
</keywords>
<keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="mortality" xml:lang="en"><term>Coronavirus Infections</term>
<term>Pneumonia, Viral</term>
</keywords>
<keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="virology" xml:lang="en"><term>Coronavirus Infections</term>
<term>Pneumonia, Viral</term>
</keywords>
<keywords scheme="MESH" xml:lang="en"><term>Adolescent</term>
<term>Adult</term>
<term>Aged</term>
<term>Aged, 80 and over</term>
<term>Child</term>
<term>Cohort Studies</term>
<term>Female</term>
<term>Forecasting</term>
<term>Humans</term>
<term>Male</term>
<term>Middle Aged</term>
<term>Models, Statistical</term>
<term>Pandemics</term>
<term>ROC Curve</term>
<term>Retrospective Studies</term>
<term>Risk Factors</term>
<term>Young Adult</term>
</keywords>
</textClass>
</profileDesc>
</teiHeader>
<front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en">At the COVID-19 pandemic onset, when individual-level data of COVID-19 patients were not yet available, there was already a need for risk predictors to support prevention and treatment decisions. Here, we report a hybrid strategy to create such a predictor, combining the development of a baseline severe respiratory infection risk predictor and a post-processing method to calibrate the predictions to reported COVID-19 case-fatality rates. With the accumulation of a COVID-19 patient cohort, this predictor is validated to have good discrimination (area under the receiver-operating characteristics curve of 0.943) and calibration (markedly improved compared to that of the baseline predictor). At a 5% risk threshold, 15% of patients are marked as high-risk, achieving a sensitivity of 88%. We thus demonstrate that even at the onset of a pandemic, shrouded in epidemiologic fog of war, it is possible to provide a useful risk predictor, now widely used in a large healthcare organization.</div>
</front>
</TEI>
<pubmed><MedlineCitation Status="MEDLINE" Owner="NLM"><PMID Version="1">32895375</PMID>
<DateCompleted><Year>2020</Year>
<Month>09</Month>
<Day>23</Day>
</DateCompleted>
<DateRevised><Year>2020</Year>
<Month>10</Month>
<Day>01</Day>
</DateRevised>
<Article PubModel="Electronic"><Journal><ISSN IssnType="Electronic">2041-1723</ISSN>
<JournalIssue CitedMedium="Internet"><Volume>11</Volume>
<Issue>1</Issue>
<PubDate><Year>2020</Year>
<Month>09</Month>
<Day>07</Day>
</PubDate>
</JournalIssue>
<Title>Nature communications</Title>
<ISOAbbreviation>Nat Commun</ISOAbbreviation>
</Journal>
<ArticleTitle>Developing a COVID-19 mortality risk prediction model when individual-level data are not available.</ArticleTitle>
<Pagination><MedlinePgn>4439</MedlinePgn>
</Pagination>
<ELocationID EIdType="doi" ValidYN="Y">10.1038/s41467-020-18297-9</ELocationID>
<Abstract><AbstractText>At the COVID-19 pandemic onset, when individual-level data of COVID-19 patients were not yet available, there was already a need for risk predictors to support prevention and treatment decisions. Here, we report a hybrid strategy to create such a predictor, combining the development of a baseline severe respiratory infection risk predictor and a post-processing method to calibrate the predictions to reported COVID-19 case-fatality rates. With the accumulation of a COVID-19 patient cohort, this predictor is validated to have good discrimination (area under the receiver-operating characteristics curve of 0.943) and calibration (markedly improved compared to that of the baseline predictor). At a 5% risk threshold, 15% of patients are marked as high-risk, achieving a sensitivity of 88%. We thus demonstrate that even at the onset of a pandemic, shrouded in epidemiologic fog of war, it is possible to provide a useful risk predictor, now widely used in a large healthcare organization.</AbstractText>
</Abstract>
<AuthorList CompleteYN="Y"><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Barda</LastName>
<ForeName>Noam</ForeName>
<Initials>N</Initials>
<Identifier Source="ORCID">0000-0002-3400-235X</Identifier>
<AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Clalit Research Institute, Innovation Division, Clalit Health Services, Toval 40, Ramat-Gan, Israel.</Affiliation>
</AffiliationInfo>
<AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>School of Public Health, Faculty of Health Sciences, Ben Gurion University of the Negev, Ben-Gurion blvd. 1, Be'er Sheva, Israel.</Affiliation>
</AffiliationInfo>
<AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Department of Computer Science, Ben Gurion University of the Negev, Ben-Gurion blvd. 1, Be'er Sheva, Israel.</Affiliation>
</AffiliationInfo>
</Author>
<Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Riesel</LastName>
<ForeName>Dan</ForeName>
<Initials>D</Initials>
<Identifier Source="ORCID">0000-0001-9716-122X</Identifier>
<AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Clalit Research Institute, Innovation Division, Clalit Health Services, Toval 40, Ramat-Gan, Israel.</Affiliation>
</AffiliationInfo>
</Author>
<Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Akriv</LastName>
<ForeName>Amichay</ForeName>
<Initials>A</Initials>
<AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Clalit Research Institute, Innovation Division, Clalit Health Services, Toval 40, Ramat-Gan, Israel.</Affiliation>
</AffiliationInfo>
</Author>
<Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Levy</LastName>
<ForeName>Joseph</ForeName>
<Initials>J</Initials>
<AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Clalit Research Institute, Innovation Division, Clalit Health Services, Toval 40, Ramat-Gan, Israel.</Affiliation>
</AffiliationInfo>
</Author>
<Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Finkel</LastName>
<ForeName>Uriah</ForeName>
<Initials>U</Initials>
<AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Clalit Research Institute, Innovation Division, Clalit Health Services, Toval 40, Ramat-Gan, Israel.</Affiliation>
</AffiliationInfo>
</Author>
<Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Yona</LastName>
<ForeName>Gal</ForeName>
<Initials>G</Initials>
<AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Department of Computer Science and Applied Mathematics, Weizmann Institute of Science, Herzl 234, Rehovot, Israel.</Affiliation>
</AffiliationInfo>
</Author>
<Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Greenfeld</LastName>
<ForeName>Daniel</ForeName>
<Initials>D</Initials>
<AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Faculty of Industrial Engineering and Management, Technion University, Haifa, Israel.</Affiliation>
</AffiliationInfo>
</Author>
<Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Sheiba</LastName>
<ForeName>Shimon</ForeName>
<Initials>S</Initials>
<AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Faculty of Industrial Engineering and Management, Technion University, Haifa, Israel.</Affiliation>
</AffiliationInfo>
</Author>
<Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Somer</LastName>
<ForeName>Jonathan</ForeName>
<Initials>J</Initials>
<AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Faculty of Industrial Engineering and Management, Technion University, Haifa, Israel.</Affiliation>
</AffiliationInfo>
</Author>
<Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Bachmat</LastName>
<ForeName>Eitan</ForeName>
<Initials>E</Initials>
<Identifier Source="ORCID">0000-0001-7153-100X</Identifier>
<AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Department of Computer Science, Ben Gurion University of the Negev, Ben-Gurion blvd. 1, Be'er Sheva, Israel.</Affiliation>
</AffiliationInfo>
</Author>
<Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Rothblum</LastName>
<ForeName>Guy N</ForeName>
<Initials>GN</Initials>
<AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Department of Computer Science and Applied Mathematics, Weizmann Institute of Science, Herzl 234, Rehovot, Israel.</Affiliation>
</AffiliationInfo>
</Author>
<Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Shalit</LastName>
<ForeName>Uri</ForeName>
<Initials>U</Initials>
<AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Faculty of Industrial Engineering and Management, Technion University, Haifa, Israel.</Affiliation>
</AffiliationInfo>
</Author>
<Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Netzer</LastName>
<ForeName>Doron</ForeName>
<Initials>D</Initials>
<AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Community Medical Services Division, Clalit Health Services, Arlozorov 101, Tel Aviv, Israel.</Affiliation>
</AffiliationInfo>
</Author>
<Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Balicer</LastName>
<ForeName>Ran</ForeName>
<Initials>R</Initials>
<AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Clalit Research Institute, Innovation Division, Clalit Health Services, Toval 40, Ramat-Gan, Israel.</Affiliation>
</AffiliationInfo>
<AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>School of Public Health, Faculty of Health Sciences, Ben Gurion University of the Negev, Ben-Gurion blvd. 1, Be'er Sheva, Israel.</Affiliation>
</AffiliationInfo>
</Author>
<Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Dagan</LastName>
<ForeName>Noa</ForeName>
<Initials>N</Initials>
<Identifier Source="ORCID">0000-0001-8811-7825</Identifier>
<AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Clalit Research Institute, Innovation Division, Clalit Health Services, Toval 40, Ramat-Gan, Israel. noada@clalit.org.il.</Affiliation>
</AffiliationInfo>
<AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>School of Public Health, Faculty of Health Sciences, Ben Gurion University of the Negev, Ben-Gurion blvd. 1, Be'er Sheva, Israel. noada@clalit.org.il.</Affiliation>
</AffiliationInfo>
<AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Department of Computer Science, Ben Gurion University of the Negev, Ben-Gurion blvd. 1, Be'er Sheva, Israel. noada@clalit.org.il.</Affiliation>
</AffiliationInfo>
</Author>
</AuthorList>
<Language>eng</Language>
<PublicationTypeList><PublicationType UI="D016428">Journal Article</PublicationType>
<PublicationType UI="D013485">Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't</PublicationType>
</PublicationTypeList>
<ArticleDate DateType="Electronic"><Year>2020</Year>
<Month>09</Month>
<Day>07</Day>
</ArticleDate>
</Article>
<MedlineJournalInfo><Country>England</Country>
<MedlineTA>Nat Commun</MedlineTA>
<NlmUniqueID>101528555</NlmUniqueID>
<ISSNLinking>2041-1723</ISSNLinking>
</MedlineJournalInfo>
<SupplMeshList><SupplMeshName Type="Disease" UI="C000657245">COVID-19</SupplMeshName>
<SupplMeshName Type="Organism" UI="C000656484">severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2</SupplMeshName>
</SupplMeshList>
<CitationSubset>IM</CitationSubset>
<MeshHeadingList><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D000293" MajorTopicYN="N">Adolescent</DescriptorName>
</MeshHeading>
<MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D000328" MajorTopicYN="N">Adult</DescriptorName>
</MeshHeading>
<MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D000368" MajorTopicYN="N">Aged</DescriptorName>
</MeshHeading>
<MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D000369" MajorTopicYN="N">Aged, 80 and over</DescriptorName>
</MeshHeading>
<MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D000073640" MajorTopicYN="N">Betacoronavirus</DescriptorName>
<QualifierName UI="Q000302" MajorTopicYN="N">isolation & purification</QualifierName>
</MeshHeading>
<MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D002648" MajorTopicYN="N">Child</DescriptorName>
</MeshHeading>
<MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D015331" MajorTopicYN="N">Cohort Studies</DescriptorName>
</MeshHeading>
<MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D018352" MajorTopicYN="N">Coronavirus Infections</DescriptorName>
<QualifierName UI="Q000401" MajorTopicYN="Y">mortality</QualifierName>
<QualifierName UI="Q000821" MajorTopicYN="N">virology</QualifierName>
</MeshHeading>
<MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D005260" MajorTopicYN="N">Female</DescriptorName>
</MeshHeading>
<MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D005544" MajorTopicYN="N">Forecasting</DescriptorName>
</MeshHeading>
<MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D006801" MajorTopicYN="N">Humans</DescriptorName>
</MeshHeading>
<MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D007557" MajorTopicYN="N" Type="Geographic">Israel</DescriptorName>
<QualifierName UI="Q000453" MajorTopicYN="N">epidemiology</QualifierName>
</MeshHeading>
<MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D008297" MajorTopicYN="N">Male</DescriptorName>
</MeshHeading>
<MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D008875" MajorTopicYN="N">Middle Aged</DescriptorName>
</MeshHeading>
<MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D015233" MajorTopicYN="Y">Models, Statistical</DescriptorName>
</MeshHeading>
<MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D058873" MajorTopicYN="N">Pandemics</DescriptorName>
</MeshHeading>
<MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D011024" MajorTopicYN="N">Pneumonia, Viral</DescriptorName>
<QualifierName UI="Q000401" MajorTopicYN="Y">mortality</QualifierName>
<QualifierName UI="Q000821" MajorTopicYN="N">virology</QualifierName>
</MeshHeading>
<MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D012372" MajorTopicYN="N">ROC Curve</DescriptorName>
</MeshHeading>
<MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D012189" MajorTopicYN="N">Retrospective Studies</DescriptorName>
</MeshHeading>
<MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D012307" MajorTopicYN="N">Risk Factors</DescriptorName>
</MeshHeading>
<MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D055815" MajorTopicYN="N">Young Adult</DescriptorName>
</MeshHeading>
</MeshHeadingList>
</MedlineCitation>
<PubmedData><History><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="received"><Year>2020</Year>
<Month>05</Month>
<Day>31</Day>
</PubMedPubDate>
<PubMedPubDate PubStatus="accepted"><Year>2020</Year>
<Month>08</Month>
<Day>13</Day>
</PubMedPubDate>
<PubMedPubDate PubStatus="entrez"><Year>2020</Year>
<Month>9</Month>
<Day>8</Day>
<Hour>5</Hour>
<Minute>19</Minute>
</PubMedPubDate>
<PubMedPubDate PubStatus="pubmed"><Year>2020</Year>
<Month>9</Month>
<Day>9</Day>
<Hour>6</Hour>
<Minute>0</Minute>
</PubMedPubDate>
<PubMedPubDate PubStatus="medline"><Year>2020</Year>
<Month>9</Month>
<Day>24</Day>
<Hour>6</Hour>
<Minute>0</Minute>
</PubMedPubDate>
</History>
<PublicationStatus>epublish</PublicationStatus>
<ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">32895375</ArticleId>
<ArticleId IdType="doi">10.1038/s41467-020-18297-9</ArticleId>
<ArticleId IdType="pii">10.1038/s41467-020-18297-9</ArticleId>
<ArticleId IdType="pmc">PMC7477233</ArticleId>
</ArticleIdList>
<ReferenceList><Reference><Citation>Br J Surg. 2015 Feb;102(3):148-58</Citation>
<ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">25627261</ArticleId>
</ArticleIdList>
</Reference>
<Reference><Citation>BMJ. 2007 Jul 21;335(7611):136</Citation>
<ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">17615182</ArticleId>
</ArticleIdList>
</Reference>
<Reference><Citation>N Engl J Med. 2020 Apr 30;382(18):e41</Citation>
<ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">32212516</ArticleId>
</ArticleIdList>
</Reference>
<Reference><Citation>Clin Infect Dis. 2020 Jul 28;71(15):833-840</Citation>
<ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">32296824</ArticleId>
</ArticleIdList>
</Reference>
<Reference><Citation>BMJ. 2020 Feb 18;368:m641</Citation>
<ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">32071063</ArticleId>
</ArticleIdList>
</Reference>
<Reference><Citation>Signal Transduct Target Ther. 2020 Mar 27;5(1):33</Citation>
<ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">32296069</ArticleId>
</ArticleIdList>
</Reference>
<Reference><Citation>N Engl J Med. 2017 Jun 29;376(26):2507-2509</Citation>
<ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">28657867</ArticleId>
</ArticleIdList>
</Reference>
<Reference><Citation>Epidemiology. 2010 Jan;21(1):128-38</Citation>
<ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">20010215</ArticleId>
</ArticleIdList>
</Reference>
<Reference><Citation>Circulation. 1998 May 12;97(18):1837-47</Citation>
<ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">9603539</ArticleId>
</ArticleIdList>
</Reference>
<Reference><Citation>Lancet. 2018 Nov 10;392(10159):1736-1788</Citation>
<ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">30496103</ArticleId>
</ArticleIdList>
</Reference>
<Reference><Citation>BMJ. 2020 Apr 7;369:m1328</Citation>
<ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">32265220</ArticleId>
</ArticleIdList>
</Reference>
<Reference><Citation>BMJ. 2009 Nov 19;339:b4229</Citation>
<ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">19926696</ArticleId>
</ArticleIdList>
</Reference>
<Reference><Citation>Osteoporos Int. 2008 Apr;19(4):385-97</Citation>
<ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">18292978</ArticleId>
</ArticleIdList>
</Reference>
<Reference><Citation>BMJ. 2016 Jan 25;352:i6</Citation>
<ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">26810254</ArticleId>
</ArticleIdList>
</Reference>
<Reference><Citation>Nat Med. 2020 Apr;26(4):506-510</Citation>
<ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">32284616</ArticleId>
</ArticleIdList>
</Reference>
</ReferenceList>
</PubmedData>
</pubmed>
</record>
Pour manipuler ce document sous Unix (Dilib)
EXPLOR_STEP=$WICRI_ROOT/Sante/explor/CovidSeniorV1/Data/Main/Corpus
HfdSelect -h $EXPLOR_STEP/biblio.hfd -nk 000319 | SxmlIndent | more
Ou
HfdSelect -h $EXPLOR_AREA/Data/Main/Corpus/biblio.hfd -nk 000319 | SxmlIndent | more
Pour mettre un lien sur cette page dans le réseau Wicri
{{Explor lien |wiki= Sante |area= CovidSeniorV1 |flux= Main |étape= Corpus |type= RBID |clé= pubmed:32895375 |texte= Developing a COVID-19 mortality risk prediction model when individual-level data are not available. }}
Pour générer des pages wiki
HfdIndexSelect -h $EXPLOR_AREA/Data/Main/Corpus/RBID.i -Sk "pubmed:32895375" \ | HfdSelect -Kh $EXPLOR_AREA/Data/Main/Corpus/biblio.hfd \ | NlmPubMed2Wicri -a CovidSeniorV1
![]() | This area was generated with Dilib version V0.6.37. | ![]() |