Global perspective of COVID-19 epidemiology for a full-cycle pandemic.
Identifieur interne : 000A84 ( Main/Corpus ); précédent : 000A83; suivant : 000A85Global perspective of COVID-19 epidemiology for a full-cycle pandemic.
Auteurs : John P A. IoannidisSource :
- European journal of clinical investigation [ 1365-2362 ] ; 2020.
English descriptors
- KwdEn :
- Aged (MeSH), Aged, 80 and over (MeSH), COVID-19 (epidemiology), COVID-19 (mortality), Cause of Death (MeSH), Computer Simulation (MeSH), Frail Elderly (MeSH), Global Health (MeSH), Humans (MeSH), Immunity, Herd (MeSH), Life Expectancy (MeSH), Middle Aged (MeSH), Mortality (MeSH), Pandemics (MeSH), Risk Factors (MeSH).
- MESH :
- epidemiology : COVID-19.
- mortality : COVID-19.
- Aged, Aged, 80 and over, Cause of Death, Computer Simulation, Frail Elderly, Global Health, Humans, Immunity, Herd, Life Expectancy, Middle Aged, Mortality, Pandemics, Risk Factors.
Abstract
As of October 2020, there are >1 million documented deaths with COVID-19. Excess deaths can be caused by both COVID-19 and the measures taken. COVID-19 shows extremely strong risk stratification across age, socioeconomic factors, and clinical factors. Calculation of years-of-life-lost from COVID-19 is methodologically challenging and can yield misleading over-estimates. Many early deaths may have been due to suboptimal management, malfunctional health systems, hydroxychloroquine, sending COVID-19 patients to nursing homes, and nosocomial infections; such deaths are partially avoidable moving forward. About 10% of the global population may be infected by October 2020. Global infection fatality rate is 0.15-0.20% (0.03-0.04% in those <70 years), with large variability across locations with different age-structure, institutionalization rates, socioeconomic inequalities, population-level clinical risk profile, public health measures, and health care. There is debate on whether at least 60% of the global population must be infected for herd immunity, or, conversely, mixing heterogeneity and pre-existing cross-immunity may allow substantially lower thresholds. Simulations are presented with a total of 1.58-8.76 million COVID-19 deaths over 5-years (1/2020-12/2024) globally (0.5-2.9% of total global deaths). The most favorable figures in that range would be feasible if high risk groups can be preferentially protected with lower infection rates than the remaining population. Death toll may also be further affected by potential availability of effective vaccines and treatments, optimal management and measures taken, COVID-19 interplay with influenza and other health problems, reinfection potential, and any chronic COVID-19 consequences. Targeted, precise management of the pandemic and avoiding past mistakes would help minimize mortality.
DOI: 10.1111/eci.13423
PubMed: 33026101
PubMed Central: PMC7646031
Links to Exploration step
pubmed:33026101Le document en format XML
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Ioannidis</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Departments of Medicine, of Epidemiology and Population Health, of Biomedical Data Science, and of Statistics, and Meta-Research Innovation Center at Stanford (METRICS), Stanford University, Stanford, CA, USA.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author></titleStmt><publicationStmt><idno type="wicri:source">PubMed</idno><date when="2020">2020</date><idno type="RBID">pubmed:33026101</idno><idno type="pmid">33026101</idno><idno type="doi">10.1111/eci.13423</idno><idno type="pmc">PMC7646031</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/Main/Corpus">000A84</idno><idno type="wicri:explorRef" wicri:stream="Main" wicri:step="Corpus" wicri:corpus="PubMed">000A84</idno></publicationStmt><sourceDesc><biblStruct><analytic><title xml:lang="en">Global perspective of COVID-19 epidemiology for a full-cycle pandemic.</title><author><name sortKey="Ioannidis, John P A" sort="Ioannidis, John P A" uniqKey="Ioannidis J" first="John P A" last="Ioannidis">John P A. Ioannidis</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Departments of Medicine, of Epidemiology and Population Health, of Biomedical Data Science, and of Statistics, and Meta-Research Innovation Center at Stanford (METRICS), Stanford University, Stanford, CA, USA.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author></analytic><series><title level="j">European journal of clinical investigation</title><idno type="eISSN">1365-2362</idno><imprint><date when="2020" type="published">2020</date></imprint></series></biblStruct></sourceDesc></fileDesc><profileDesc><textClass><keywords scheme="KwdEn" xml:lang="en"><term>Aged (MeSH)</term><term>Aged, 80 and over (MeSH)</term><term>COVID-19 (epidemiology)</term><term>COVID-19 (mortality)</term><term>Cause of Death (MeSH)</term><term>Computer Simulation (MeSH)</term><term>Frail Elderly (MeSH)</term><term>Global Health (MeSH)</term><term>Humans (MeSH)</term><term>Immunity, Herd (MeSH)</term><term>Life Expectancy (MeSH)</term><term>Middle Aged (MeSH)</term><term>Mortality (MeSH)</term><term>Pandemics (MeSH)</term><term>Risk Factors (MeSH)</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="epidemiology" xml:lang="en"><term>COVID-19</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="mortality" xml:lang="en"><term>COVID-19</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" xml:lang="en"><term>Aged</term><term>Aged, 80 and over</term><term>Cause of Death</term><term>Computer Simulation</term><term>Frail Elderly</term><term>Global Health</term><term>Humans</term><term>Immunity, Herd</term><term>Life Expectancy</term><term>Middle Aged</term><term>Mortality</term><term>Pandemics</term><term>Risk Factors</term></keywords></textClass></profileDesc></teiHeader><front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en">As of October 2020, there are >1 million documented deaths with COVID-19. Excess deaths can be caused by both COVID-19 and the measures taken. COVID-19 shows extremely strong risk stratification across age, socioeconomic factors, and clinical factors. Calculation of years-of-life-lost from COVID-19 is methodologically challenging and can yield misleading over-estimates. Many early deaths may have been due to suboptimal management, malfunctional health systems, hydroxychloroquine, sending COVID-19 patients to nursing homes, and nosocomial infections; such deaths are partially avoidable moving forward. About 10% of the global population may be infected by October 2020. Global infection fatality rate is 0.15-0.20% (0.03-0.04% in those <70 years), with large variability across locations with different age-structure, institutionalization rates, socioeconomic inequalities, population-level clinical risk profile, public health measures, and health care. There is debate on whether at least 60% of the global population must be infected for herd immunity, or, conversely, mixing heterogeneity and pre-existing cross-immunity may allow substantially lower thresholds. Simulations are presented with a total of 1.58-8.76 million COVID-19 deaths over 5-years (1/2020-12/2024) globally (0.5-2.9% of total global deaths). The most favorable figures in that range would be feasible if high risk groups can be preferentially protected with lower infection rates than the remaining population. Death toll may also be further affected by potential availability of effective vaccines and treatments, optimal management and measures taken, COVID-19 interplay with influenza and other health problems, reinfection potential, and any chronic COVID-19 consequences. Targeted, precise management of the pandemic and avoiding past mistakes would help minimize mortality.</div></front></TEI><pubmed><MedlineCitation Status="MEDLINE" Owner="NLM"><PMID Version="1">33026101</PMID><DateCompleted><Year>2020</Year><Month>12</Month><Day>11</Day></DateCompleted><DateRevised><Year>2021</Year><Month>01</Month><Day>25</Day></DateRevised><Article PubModel="Print-Electronic"><Journal><ISSN IssnType="Electronic">1365-2362</ISSN><JournalIssue CitedMedium="Internet"><Volume>50</Volume><Issue>12</Issue><PubDate><Year>2020</Year><Month>Dec</Month></PubDate></JournalIssue><Title>European journal of clinical investigation</Title><ISOAbbreviation>Eur J Clin Invest</ISOAbbreviation></Journal><ArticleTitle>Global perspective of COVID-19 epidemiology for a full-cycle pandemic.</ArticleTitle><Pagination><MedlinePgn>e13423</MedlinePgn></Pagination><ELocationID EIdType="doi" ValidYN="Y">10.1111/eci.13423</ELocationID><Abstract><AbstractText>As of October 2020, there are >1 million documented deaths with COVID-19. Excess deaths can be caused by both COVID-19 and the measures taken. COVID-19 shows extremely strong risk stratification across age, socioeconomic factors, and clinical factors. Calculation of years-of-life-lost from COVID-19 is methodologically challenging and can yield misleading over-estimates. Many early deaths may have been due to suboptimal management, malfunctional health systems, hydroxychloroquine, sending COVID-19 patients to nursing homes, and nosocomial infections; such deaths are partially avoidable moving forward. About 10% of the global population may be infected by October 2020. Global infection fatality rate is 0.15-0.20% (0.03-0.04% in those <70 years), with large variability across locations with different age-structure, institutionalization rates, socioeconomic inequalities, population-level clinical risk profile, public health measures, and health care. There is debate on whether at least 60% of the global population must be infected for herd immunity, or, conversely, mixing heterogeneity and pre-existing cross-immunity may allow substantially lower thresholds. Simulations are presented with a total of 1.58-8.76 million COVID-19 deaths over 5-years (1/2020-12/2024) globally (0.5-2.9% of total global deaths). The most favorable figures in that range would be feasible if high risk groups can be preferentially protected with lower infection rates than the remaining population. Death toll may also be further affected by potential availability of effective vaccines and treatments, optimal management and measures taken, COVID-19 interplay with influenza and other health problems, reinfection potential, and any chronic COVID-19 consequences. Targeted, precise management of the pandemic and avoiding past mistakes would help minimize mortality.</AbstractText><CopyrightInformation>© 2020 Stichting European Society for Clinical Investigation Journal Foundation. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.</CopyrightInformation></Abstract><AuthorList CompleteYN="Y"><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Ioannidis</LastName><ForeName>John P A</ForeName><Initials>JPA</Initials><Identifier Source="ORCID">https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3118-6859</Identifier><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Departments of Medicine, of Epidemiology and Population Health, of Biomedical Data Science, and of Statistics, and Meta-Research Innovation Center at Stanford (METRICS), Stanford University, Stanford, CA, USA.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author></AuthorList><Language>eng</Language><GrantList CompleteYN="Y"><Grant><Agency>Laura and John Arnold Foundation</Agency><Country></Country></Grant></GrantList><PublicationTypeList><PublicationType UI="D016428">Journal Article</PublicationType></PublicationTypeList><ArticleDate DateType="Electronic"><Year>2020</Year><Month>10</Month><Day>25</Day></ArticleDate></Article><MedlineJournalInfo><Country>England</Country><MedlineTA>Eur J Clin 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MajorTopicYN="N">mortality</QualifierName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D002423" MajorTopicYN="N">Cause of Death</DescriptorName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D003198" MajorTopicYN="N">Computer Simulation</DescriptorName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D016330" MajorTopicYN="N">Frail Elderly</DescriptorName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D014943" MajorTopicYN="Y">Global Health</DescriptorName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D006801" MajorTopicYN="N">Humans</DescriptorName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D032521" MajorTopicYN="N">Immunity, Herd</DescriptorName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D008017" MajorTopicYN="N">Life Expectancy</DescriptorName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D008875" MajorTopicYN="N">Middle Aged</DescriptorName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D009026" 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