Predicting the Impact of Temperature Change on the Future Distribution of Maize Stem Borers and Their Natural Enemies along East African Mountain Gradients Using Phenology Models.
Identifieur interne : 000066 ( PubMed/Checkpoint ); précédent : 000065; suivant : 000067Predicting the Impact of Temperature Change on the Future Distribution of Maize Stem Borers and Their Natural Enemies along East African Mountain Gradients Using Phenology Models.
Auteurs : Sizah Mwalusepo [Tanzanie] ; Henri E Z. Tonnang [Kenya] ; Estomih S. Massawe [Tanzanie] ; Gerphas O. Okuku [Kenya] ; Nancy Khadioli [Kenya] ; Tino Johansson [Kenya] ; Paul-André Calatayud [France] ; Bruno Pierre Le Ru [France]Source :
- PloS one [ 1932-6203 ] ; 2015.
Descripteurs français
- Wicri :
- geographic : Kenya.
English descriptors
- KwdEn :
- MESH :
- geographic : Kenya, Tanzania.
- physiology : Host-Parasite Interactions, Moths, Wasps.
- Agriculture, Animals, Climate Change, Models, Theoretical, Pest Control, Biological, Plant Stems, Temperature, Zea mays.
Abstract
Lepidopteran stem borers are among the most important pests of maize in East Africa. The objective of the present study was to predict the impact of temperature change on the distribution and abundance of the crambid Chilo partellus, the noctuid Busseola fusca, and their larval parasitoids Cotesia flavipes and Cotesia sesamiae at local scale along Kilimanjaro and Taita Hills gradients in Tanzania and Kenya, respectively. Temperature-dependent phenology models of pests and parasitoids were used in a geographic information system for mapping. The three risk indices namely establishment, generation, and activity indices were computed using current temperature data record from local weather stations and future (i.e., 2055) climatic condition based on downscaled climate change data from the AFRICLIM database. The calculations were carried out using index interpolator, a sub-module of the Insect Life Cycle Modeling (ILCYM) software. Thin plate algorithm was used for interpolation of the indices. Our study confirmed that temperature was a key factor explaining the distribution of stem borers and their natural enemies but other climatic factors and factors related to the top-down regulation of pests by parasitoids (host-parasitoid synchrony) also played a role. Results based on temperature only indicated a worsening of stem borer impact on maize production along the two East African mountain gradients studied. This was attributed to three main changes occurring simultaneously: (1) range expansion of the lowland species C. partellus in areas above 1200 m.a.s.l.; (2) increase of the number of pest generations across all altitudes, thus by 2055 damage by both pests will increase in the most productive maize zones of both transects; (3) disruption of the geographical distribution of pests and their larval parasitoids will cause an improvement of biological control at altitude below 1200 m.a.s.l. and a deterioration above 1200 m.a.s.l. The predicted increase in pest activity will significantly increase maize yield losses in all agro-ecological zones across both transects but to a much greater extent in lower areas.
DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0130427
PubMed: 26075605
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Tonnang</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>CHIESA Project, icipe-African Insect Science for Food and Health, Nairobi, Kenya.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">Kenya</country><wicri:regionArea>CHIESA Project, icipe-African Insect Science for Food and Health, Nairobi</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Nairobi</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Massawe, Estomih S" sort="Massawe, Estomih S" uniqKey="Massawe E" first="Estomih S" last="Massawe">Estomih S. Massawe</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>Department of Mathematics, University of Dar es Salaam, Dar es Salaam, Tanzania.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">Tanzanie</country><wicri:regionArea>Department of Mathematics, University of Dar es Salaam, Dar es Salaam</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Dar es Salaam</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Okuku, Gerphas O" sort="Okuku, Gerphas O" uniqKey="Okuku G" first="Gerphas O" last="Okuku">Gerphas O. 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The objective of the present study was to predict the impact of temperature change on the distribution and abundance of the crambid Chilo partellus, the noctuid Busseola fusca, and their larval parasitoids Cotesia flavipes and Cotesia sesamiae at local scale along Kilimanjaro and Taita Hills gradients in Tanzania and Kenya, respectively. Temperature-dependent phenology models of pests and parasitoids were used in a geographic information system for mapping. The three risk indices namely establishment, generation, and activity indices were computed using current temperature data record from local weather stations and future (i.e., 2055) climatic condition based on downscaled climate change data from the AFRICLIM database. The calculations were carried out using index interpolator, a sub-module of the Insect Life Cycle Modeling (ILCYM) software. Thin plate algorithm was used for interpolation of the indices. Our study confirmed that temperature was a key factor explaining the distribution of stem borers and their natural enemies but other climatic factors and factors related to the top-down regulation of pests by parasitoids (host-parasitoid synchrony) also played a role. Results based on temperature only indicated a worsening of stem borer impact on maize production along the two East African mountain gradients studied. This was attributed to three main changes occurring simultaneously: (1) range expansion of the lowland species C. partellus in areas above 1200 m.a.s.l.; (2) increase of the number of pest generations across all altitudes, thus by 2055 damage by both pests will increase in the most productive maize zones of both transects; (3) disruption of the geographical distribution of pests and their larval parasitoids will cause an improvement of biological control at altitude below 1200 m.a.s.l. and a deterioration above 1200 m.a.s.l. The predicted increase in pest activity will significantly increase maize yield losses in all agro-ecological zones across both transects but to a much greater extent in lower areas.</div></front></TEI><pubmed><MedlineCitation Status="MEDLINE" Owner="NLM"><PMID Version="1">26075605</PMID><DateCreated><Year>2015</Year><Month>06</Month><Day>16</Day></DateCreated><DateCompleted><Year>2016</Year><Month>05</Month><Day>04</Day></DateCompleted><DateRevised><Year>2015</Year><Month>06</Month><Day>27</Day></DateRevised><Article PubModel="Electronic-eCollection"><Journal><ISSN IssnType="Electronic">1932-6203</ISSN><JournalIssue CitedMedium="Internet"><Volume>10</Volume><Issue>6</Issue><PubDate><Year>2015</Year></PubDate></JournalIssue><Title>PloS one</Title><ISOAbbreviation>PLoS ONE</ISOAbbreviation></Journal><ArticleTitle>Predicting the Impact of Temperature Change on the Future Distribution of Maize Stem Borers and Their Natural Enemies along East African Mountain Gradients Using Phenology Models.</ArticleTitle><Pagination><MedlinePgn>e0130427</MedlinePgn></Pagination><ELocationID EIdType="doi" ValidYN="Y">10.1371/journal.pone.0130427</ELocationID><Abstract><AbstractText>Lepidopteran stem borers are among the most important pests of maize in East Africa. The objective of the present study was to predict the impact of temperature change on the distribution and abundance of the crambid Chilo partellus, the noctuid Busseola fusca, and their larval parasitoids Cotesia flavipes and Cotesia sesamiae at local scale along Kilimanjaro and Taita Hills gradients in Tanzania and Kenya, respectively. Temperature-dependent phenology models of pests and parasitoids were used in a geographic information system for mapping. The three risk indices namely establishment, generation, and activity indices were computed using current temperature data record from local weather stations and future (i.e., 2055) climatic condition based on downscaled climate change data from the AFRICLIM database. The calculations were carried out using index interpolator, a sub-module of the Insect Life Cycle Modeling (ILCYM) software. Thin plate algorithm was used for interpolation of the indices. Our study confirmed that temperature was a key factor explaining the distribution of stem borers and their natural enemies but other climatic factors and factors related to the top-down regulation of pests by parasitoids (host-parasitoid synchrony) also played a role. Results based on temperature only indicated a worsening of stem borer impact on maize production along the two East African mountain gradients studied. This was attributed to three main changes occurring simultaneously: (1) range expansion of the lowland species C. partellus in areas above 1200 m.a.s.l.; (2) increase of the number of pest generations across all altitudes, thus by 2055 damage by both pests will increase in the most productive maize zones of both transects; (3) disruption of the geographical distribution of pests and their larval parasitoids will cause an improvement of biological control at altitude below 1200 m.a.s.l. and a deterioration above 1200 m.a.s.l. The predicted increase in pest activity will significantly increase maize yield losses in all agro-ecological zones across both transects but to a much greater extent in lower areas.</AbstractText></Abstract><AuthorList CompleteYN="Y"><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Mwalusepo</LastName><ForeName>Sizah</ForeName><Initials>S</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>CHIESA Project, icipe-African Insect Science for Food and Health, Nairobi, Kenya; Department of Mathematics, University of Dar es Salaam, Dar es Salaam, Tanzania; Department of General studies, Dar es Salaam Institute of Technology, Dar es Salaam, Tanzania.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Tonnang</LastName><ForeName>Henri E Z</ForeName><Initials>HE</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>CHIESA Project, icipe-African Insect Science for Food and Health, Nairobi, Kenya.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Massawe</LastName><ForeName>Estomih S</ForeName><Initials>ES</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Department of Mathematics, University of Dar es Salaam, Dar es Salaam, Tanzania.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Okuku</LastName><ForeName>Gerphas O</ForeName><Initials>GO</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>NSBB Project, icipe-African Insect Science for Food and Health, Nairobi, Kenya.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Khadioli</LastName><ForeName>Nancy</ForeName><Initials>N</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>NSBB Project, icipe-African Insect Science for Food and Health, Nairobi, Kenya.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Johansson</LastName><ForeName>Tino</ForeName><Initials>T</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>CHIESA Project, icipe-African Insect Science for Food and Health, Nairobi, Kenya.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Calatayud</LastName><ForeName>Paul-André</ForeName><Initials>PA</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>CHIESA Project, icipe-African Insect Science for Food and Health, Nairobi, Kenya; IRD/CNRS UMR IRD 247 EGCE, Laboratoire Evolution Génomes Comportement et Ecologie, CNRS, Gif sur Yvette Cedex, France; Université Paris-Sud 11, Orsay, France.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Le Ru</LastName><ForeName>Bruno Pierre</ForeName><Initials>BP</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>CHIESA Project, icipe-African Insect Science for Food and Health, Nairobi, Kenya; IRD/CNRS UMR IRD 247 EGCE, Laboratoire Evolution Génomes Comportement et Ecologie, CNRS, Gif sur Yvette Cedex, France; Université Paris-Sud 11, Orsay, France.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author></AuthorList><Language>eng</Language><PublicationTypeList><PublicationType UI="D016428">Journal Article</PublicationType><PublicationType UI="D013485">Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't</PublicationType></PublicationTypeList><ArticleDate DateType="Electronic"><Year>2015</Year><Month>06</Month><Day>15</Day></ArticleDate></Article><MedlineJournalInfo><Country>United States</Country><MedlineTA>PLoS One</MedlineTA><NlmUniqueID>101285081</NlmUniqueID><ISSNLinking>1932-6203</ISSNLinking></MedlineJournalInfo><CitationSubset>IM</CitationSubset><CommentsCorrectionsList><CommentsCorrections RefType="Cites"><RefSource>Nature. 2007 Aug 2;448(7153):550-2</RefSource><PMID Version="1">17671497</PMID></CommentsCorrections><CommentsCorrections RefType="Cites"><RefSource>Ecol Appl. 2007 Apr;17(3):882-99</RefSource><PMID Version="1">17494404</PMID></CommentsCorrections><CommentsCorrections RefType="Cites"><RefSource>Philos Trans A Math Phys Eng Sci. 2011 Jan 13;369(1934):117-36</RefSource><PMID Version="1">21115516</PMID></CommentsCorrections><CommentsCorrections RefType="Cites"><RefSource>J Environ Manage. 2011 Mar;92(3):982-93</RefSource><PMID 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Feb;70(2):105-9</RefSource><PMID Version="1">14993618</PMID></CommentsCorrections><CommentsCorrections RefType="Cites"><RefSource>J Theor Biol. 1977 Feb 21;64(4):649-70</RefSource><PMID Version="1">846210</PMID></CommentsCorrections><CommentsCorrections RefType="Cites"><RefSource>Ecol Appl. 2006 Feb;16(1):33-50</RefSource><PMID Version="1">16705959</PMID></CommentsCorrections><CommentsCorrections RefType="Cites"><RefSource>Annu Rev Entomol. 2007;52:107-26</RefSource><PMID Version="1">16846383</PMID></CommentsCorrections><CommentsCorrections RefType="Cites"><RefSource>J Anim Ecol. 2008 Mar;77(2):257-64</RefSource><PMID Version="1">18070041</PMID></CommentsCorrections></CommentsCorrectionsList><MeshHeadingList><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D000383" MajorTopicYN="N">Agriculture</DescriptorName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D000818" MajorTopicYN="N">Animals</DescriptorName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D057231" MajorTopicYN="Y">Climate Change</DescriptorName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D006790" MajorTopicYN="N">Host-Parasite Interactions</DescriptorName><QualifierName UI="Q000502" MajorTopicYN="Y">physiology</QualifierName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D007630" MajorTopicYN="N" Type="Geographic">Kenya</DescriptorName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D008962" MajorTopicYN="N">Models, Theoretical</DescriptorName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D009036" MajorTopicYN="N">Moths</DescriptorName><QualifierName UI="Q000502" MajorTopicYN="Y">physiology</QualifierName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D010572" MajorTopicYN="N">Pest Control, Biological</DescriptorName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D018547" MajorTopicYN="N">Plant Stems</DescriptorName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D013636" MajorTopicYN="N" Type="Geographic">Tanzania</DescriptorName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D013696" MajorTopicYN="Y">Temperature</DescriptorName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D014863" MajorTopicYN="N">Wasps</DescriptorName><QualifierName UI="Q000502" MajorTopicYN="Y">physiology</QualifierName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D003313" MajorTopicYN="N">Zea mays</DescriptorName></MeshHeading></MeshHeadingList><OtherID Source="NLM">PMC4468198</OtherID></MedlineCitation><PubmedData><History><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="received"><Year>2015</Year><Month>02</Month><Day>19</Day></PubMedPubDate><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="accepted"><Year>2015</Year><Month>05</Month><Day>20</Day></PubMedPubDate><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="entrez"><Year>2015</Year><Month>6</Month><Day>16</Day><Hour>6</Hour><Minute>0</Minute></PubMedPubDate><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="pubmed"><Year>2015</Year><Month>6</Month><Day>16</Day><Hour>6</Hour><Minute>0</Minute></PubMedPubDate><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="medline"><Year>2016</Year><Month>5</Month><Day>5</Day><Hour>6</Hour><Minute>0</Minute></PubMedPubDate></History><PublicationStatus>epublish</PublicationStatus><ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">26075605</ArticleId><ArticleId IdType="doi">10.1371/journal.pone.0130427</ArticleId><ArticleId IdType="pii">PONE-D-15-07510</ArticleId><ArticleId IdType="pmc">PMC4468198</ArticleId></ArticleIdList></PubmedData></pubmed><affiliations><list><country><li>France</li><li>Kenya</li><li>Tanzanie</li></country><settlement><li>Orsay</li></settlement></list><tree><country name="Tanzanie"><noRegion><name sortKey="Mwalusepo, Sizah" sort="Mwalusepo, Sizah" uniqKey="Mwalusepo S" first="Sizah" last="Mwalusepo">Sizah Mwalusepo</name></noRegion><name sortKey="Massawe, Estomih S" sort="Massawe, Estomih S" uniqKey="Massawe E" first="Estomih S" last="Massawe">Estomih S. Massawe</name></country><country name="Kenya"><noRegion><name sortKey="Tonnang, Henri E Z" sort="Tonnang, Henri E Z" uniqKey="Tonnang H" first="Henri E Z" last="Tonnang">Henri E Z. Tonnang</name></noRegion><name sortKey="Johansson, Tino" sort="Johansson, Tino" uniqKey="Johansson T" first="Tino" last="Johansson">Tino Johansson</name><name sortKey="Khadioli, Nancy" sort="Khadioli, Nancy" uniqKey="Khadioli N" first="Nancy" last="Khadioli">Nancy Khadioli</name><name sortKey="Okuku, Gerphas O" sort="Okuku, Gerphas O" uniqKey="Okuku G" first="Gerphas O" last="Okuku">Gerphas O. Okuku</name></country><country name="France"><noRegion><name sortKey="Calatayud, Paul Andre" sort="Calatayud, Paul Andre" uniqKey="Calatayud P" first="Paul-André" last="Calatayud">Paul-André Calatayud</name></noRegion><name sortKey="Le Ru, Bruno Pierre" sort="Le Ru, Bruno Pierre" uniqKey="Le Ru B" first="Bruno Pierre" last="Le Ru">Bruno Pierre Le Ru</name></country></tree></affiliations></record>Pour manipuler ce document sous Unix (Dilib)
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