Some Implications of Climatic Change for Agriculture in Europe
Identifieur interne : 001409 ( Istex/Corpus ); précédent : 001408; suivant : 001410Some Implications of Climatic Change for Agriculture in Europe
Auteurs : T. R. Carter ; J. H. Porter ; M. L. ParrySource :
- Journal of Experimental Botany [ 0022-0957 ] ; 1992-08.
Abstract
Initial results are reported of a study to evaluate the broad-scale sensitivity of agriculture in Europe to climatic change. The study relates an agroclimatic index, effective temperature sum (ETS), to the cultivable limits of grain maize. A computer mapping system for the European region is adopted to map ETS on the basis both of present-day and of possible future mean temperatures. In this way, changes in climate can be depicted as geographical shifts of the limit of potential grain maize cultivation. The results indicate that a mean annual temperature increase of only 1 °C (within the present-day range of inter-annual variability) would open up large areas in southern England, the Low Countries, eastern Denmark, northern Germany, and northern Poland to potential grain maize cultivation. An increase of 4°C would move the limit into central Fennoscandia and northern Russia. The latter changes are similar to those projected by general circulation models (GCMs) for an equivalent doubling of atmospheric carbon dioxide, and represent rates of northward shift of approximately 200–350 km/°C in western Europe and 250–400 km/°C in eastern Europe. Results using information from GCM transient-response experiments indicate that such shifts could occur as soon as the 2050s if the current exponential growth in emission rates of greenhouse gases were to continue unabated. The rate of shift of the grain maize limit implied for this high (and improbable) emissions scenario is in the order of 150–200 km per decade over the next 70 years, slower than this during the next few decades, but faster thereafter. It is probable that the actual rate will be lower than this, but even values of half those calculated, if sustained, would still represent rates of shift in agroclimatic potential that are unprecedented in the historical record.
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DOI: 10.1093/jxb/43.8.1159
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Parry</name><affiliation><mods:affiliation>Environmental Change Unit, University of Oxford, Oxford OX1 3TB, UK</mods:affiliation></affiliation></author></titleStmt><publicationStmt><idno type="wicri:source">ISTEX</idno><idno type="RBID">ISTEX:A3783684D63386C64A4E3CF0155C7B3D112BAED5</idno><date when="1992" year="1992">1992</date><idno type="doi">10.1093/jxb/43.8.1159</idno><idno type="url">https://api.istex.fr/document/A3783684D63386C64A4E3CF0155C7B3D112BAED5/fulltext/pdf</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/Istex/Corpus">001409</idno><idno type="wicri:explorRef" wicri:stream="Istex" wicri:step="Corpus" wicri:corpus="ISTEX">001409</idno></publicationStmt><sourceDesc><biblStruct><analytic><title level="a">Some Implications of Climatic Change for Agriculture in Europe</title><author><name sortKey="Carter, T R" sort="Carter, T R" uniqKey="Carter T" first="T. R." last="Carter">T. R. Carter</name><affiliation><mods:affiliation>Environmental Change Unit, University of Oxford, Oxford OX1 3TB, UK</mods:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Porter, J H" sort="Porter, J H" uniqKey="Porter J" first="J. H." last="Porter">J. H. Porter</name><affiliation><mods:affiliation>Environmental Change Unit, University of Oxford, Oxford OX1 3TB, UK</mods:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Parry, M L" sort="Parry, M L" uniqKey="Parry M" first="M. L." last="Parry">M. L. Parry</name><affiliation><mods:affiliation>Environmental Change Unit, University of Oxford, Oxford OX1 3TB, UK</mods:affiliation></affiliation></author></analytic><monogr></monogr><series><title level="j">Journal of Experimental Botany</title><idno type="ISSN">0022-0957</idno><idno type="eISSN">1460-2431</idno><imprint><publisher>Oxford University Press</publisher><date type="published" when="1992-08">1992-08</date><biblScope unit="volume">43</biblScope><biblScope unit="issue">8</biblScope><biblScope unit="page" from="1159">1159</biblScope><biblScope unit="page" to="1167">1167</biblScope></imprint><idno type="ISSN">0022-0957</idno></series><idno type="istex">A3783684D63386C64A4E3CF0155C7B3D112BAED5</idno><idno type="DOI">10.1093/jxb/43.8.1159</idno><idno type="ArticleID">43.8.1159</idno></biblStruct></sourceDesc><seriesStmt><idno type="ISSN">0022-0957</idno></seriesStmt></fileDesc><profileDesc><textClass></textClass></profileDesc></teiHeader><front><div type="abstract">Initial results are reported of a study to evaluate the broad-scale sensitivity of agriculture in Europe to climatic change. The study relates an agroclimatic index, effective temperature sum (ETS), to the cultivable limits of grain maize. A computer mapping system for the European region is adopted to map ETS on the basis both of present-day and of possible future mean temperatures. In this way, changes in climate can be depicted as geographical shifts of the limit of potential grain maize cultivation. The results indicate that a mean annual temperature increase of only 1 °C (within the present-day range of inter-annual variability) would open up large areas in southern England, the Low Countries, eastern Denmark, northern Germany, and northern Poland to potential grain maize cultivation. An increase of 4°C would move the limit into central Fennoscandia and northern Russia. The latter changes are similar to those projected by general circulation models (GCMs) for an equivalent doubling of atmospheric carbon dioxide, and represent rates of northward shift of approximately 200–350 km/°C in western Europe and 250–400 km/°C in eastern Europe. Results using information from GCM transient-response experiments indicate that such shifts could occur as soon as the 2050s if the current exponential growth in emission rates of greenhouse gases were to continue unabated. The rate of shift of the grain maize limit implied for this high (and improbable) emissions scenario is in the order of 150–200 km per decade over the next 70 years, slower than this during the next few decades, but faster thereafter. It is probable that the actual rate will be lower than this, but even values of half those calculated, if sustained, would still represent rates of shift in agroclimatic potential that are unprecedented in the historical record.</div></front></TEI><istex><corpusName>oup</corpusName><author><json:item><name>T. R. CARTER</name><affiliations><json:string>Environmental Change Unit, University of Oxford, Oxford OX1 3TB, UK</json:string></affiliations></json:item><json:item><name>J. H. PORTER</name><affiliations><json:string>Environmental Change Unit, University of Oxford, Oxford OX1 3TB, UK</json:string></affiliations></json:item><json:item><name>M. L. PARRY</name><affiliations><json:string>Environmental Change Unit, University of Oxford, Oxford OX1 3TB, UK</json:string></affiliations></json:item></author><subject><json:item><value>Articles</value></json:item></subject><articleId><json:string>43.8.1159</json:string></articleId><language><json:string>unknown</json:string></language><originalGenre><json:string>research-article</json:string></originalGenre><abstract>Initial results are reported of a study to evaluate the broad-scale sensitivity of agriculture in Europe to climatic change. The study relates an agroclimatic index, effective temperature sum (ETS), to the cultivable limits of grain maize. A computer mapping system for the European region is adopted to map ETS on the basis both of present-day and of possible future mean temperatures. In this way, changes in climate can be depicted as geographical shifts of the limit of potential grain maize cultivation. The results indicate that a mean annual temperature increase of only 1 °C (within the present-day range of inter-annual variability) would open up large areas in southern England, the Low Countries, eastern Denmark, northern Germany, and northern Poland to potential grain maize cultivation. An increase of 4°C would move the limit into central Fennoscandia and northern Russia. The latter changes are similar to those projected by general circulation models (GCMs) for an equivalent doubling of atmospheric carbon dioxide, and represent rates of northward shift of approximately 200–350 km/°C in western Europe and 250–400 km/°C in eastern Europe. Results using information from GCM transient-response experiments indicate that such shifts could occur as soon as the 2050s if the current exponential growth in emission rates of greenhouse gases were to continue unabated. The rate of shift of the grain maize limit implied for this high (and improbable) emissions scenario is in the order of 150–200 km per decade over the next 70 years, slower than this during the next few decades, but faster thereafter. It is probable that the actual rate will be lower than this, but even values of half those calculated, if sustained, would still represent rates of shift in agroclimatic potential that are unprecedented in the historical record.</abstract><qualityIndicators><score>9.931</score><pdfVersion>1.2</pdfVersion><pdfPageSize>611 x 795 pts</pdfPageSize><refBibsNative>false</refBibsNative><keywordCount>1</keywordCount><abstractCharCount>1845</abstractCharCount><pdfWordCount>4931</pdfWordCount><pdfCharCount>30841</pdfCharCount><pdfPageCount>9</pdfPageCount><abstractWordCount>290</abstractWordCount></qualityIndicators><title>Some Implications of Climatic Change for Agriculture in Europe</title><genre><json:string>research-article</json:string></genre><host><volume>43</volume><publisherId><json:string>exbotj</json:string></publisherId><pages><last>1167</last><first>1159</first></pages><issn><json:string>0022-0957</json:string></issn><issue>8</issue><genre><json:string>journal</json:string></genre><language><json:string>unknown</json:string></language><eissn><json:string>1460-2431</json:string></eissn><title>Journal of Experimental Botany</title></host><categories><wos><json:string>science</json:string><json:string>plant sciences</json:string></wos><scienceMetrix><json:string>natural sciences</json:string><json:string>biology</json:string><json:string>plant biology & botany</json:string></scienceMetrix></categories><publicationDate>1992</publicationDate><copyrightDate>1992</copyrightDate><doi><json:string>10.1093/jxb/43.8.1159</json:string></doi><id>A3783684D63386C64A4E3CF0155C7B3D112BAED5</id><score>0.044237614</score><fulltext><json:item><extension>pdf</extension><original>true</original><mimetype>application/pdf</mimetype><uri>https://api.istex.fr/document/A3783684D63386C64A4E3CF0155C7B3D112BAED5/fulltext/pdf</uri></json:item><json:item><extension>zip</extension><original>false</original><mimetype>application/zip</mimetype><uri>https://api.istex.fr/document/A3783684D63386C64A4E3CF0155C7B3D112BAED5/fulltext/zip</uri></json:item><istex:fulltextTEI uri="https://api.istex.fr/document/A3783684D63386C64A4E3CF0155C7B3D112BAED5/fulltext/tei"><teiHeader><fileDesc><titleStmt><title level="a">Some Implications of Climatic Change for Agriculture in Europe</title><respStmt><resp>Références bibliographiques récupérées via GROBID</resp><name resp="ISTEX-API">ISTEX-API (INIST-CNRS)</name></respStmt></titleStmt><publicationStmt><authority>ISTEX</authority><publisher>Oxford University Press</publisher><availability><p>© Oxford University Press 1992</p></availability><date>1992</date></publicationStmt><notesStmt><note>1 Present address: Finnish Meteorological Institute, P.O.B. 503, SF-00101, Helsinki, Finland.</note><note>3 To whom correspondance should be addressed.</note></notesStmt><sourceDesc><biblStruct type="inbook"><analytic><title level="a">Some Implications of Climatic Change for Agriculture in Europe</title><author xml:id="author-1"><persName><forename type="first">T. R.</forename><surname>CARTER</surname></persName><affiliation>Environmental Change Unit, University of Oxford, Oxford OX1 3TB, UK</affiliation></author><author xml:id="author-2"><persName><forename type="first">J. H.</forename><surname>PORTER</surname></persName><affiliation>Environmental Change Unit, University of Oxford, Oxford OX1 3TB, UK</affiliation></author><author xml:id="author-3"><persName><forename type="first">M. L.</forename><surname>PARRY</surname></persName><affiliation>Environmental Change Unit, University of Oxford, Oxford OX1 3TB, UK</affiliation></author></analytic><monogr><title level="j">Journal of Experimental Botany</title><idno type="pISSN">0022-0957</idno><idno type="eISSN">1460-2431</idno><imprint><publisher>Oxford University Press</publisher><date type="published" when="1992-08"></date><biblScope unit="volume">43</biblScope><biblScope unit="issue">8</biblScope><biblScope unit="page" from="1159">1159</biblScope><biblScope unit="page" to="1167">1167</biblScope></imprint></monogr><idno type="istex">A3783684D63386C64A4E3CF0155C7B3D112BAED5</idno><idno type="DOI">10.1093/jxb/43.8.1159</idno><idno type="ArticleID">43.8.1159</idno></biblStruct></sourceDesc></fileDesc><profileDesc><creation><date>1992</date></creation><abstract><p>Initial results are reported of a study to evaluate the broad-scale sensitivity of agriculture in Europe to climatic change. The study relates an agroclimatic index, effective temperature sum (ETS), to the cultivable limits of grain maize. A computer mapping system for the European region is adopted to map ETS on the basis both of present-day and of possible future mean temperatures. In this way, changes in climate can be depicted as geographical shifts of the limit of potential grain maize cultivation. The results indicate that a mean annual temperature increase of only 1 °C (within the present-day range of inter-annual variability) would open up large areas in southern England, the Low Countries, eastern Denmark, northern Germany, and northern Poland to potential grain maize cultivation. An increase of 4°C would move the limit into central Fennoscandia and northern Russia. The latter changes are similar to those projected by general circulation models (GCMs) for an equivalent doubling of atmospheric carbon dioxide, and represent rates of northward shift of approximately 200–350 km/°C in western Europe and 250–400 km/°C in eastern Europe. Results using information from GCM transient-response experiments indicate that such shifts could occur as soon as the 2050s if the current exponential growth in emission rates of greenhouse gases were to continue unabated. The rate of shift of the grain maize limit implied for this high (and improbable) emissions scenario is in the order of 150–200 km per decade over the next 70 years, slower than this during the next few decades, but faster thereafter. It is probable that the actual rate will be lower than this, but even values of half those calculated, if sustained, would still represent rates of shift in agroclimatic potential that are unprecedented in the historical record.</p></abstract><textClass><keywords scheme="keyword"><list><item><term>Articles</term></item></list></keywords></textClass></profileDesc><revisionDesc><change when="1992-08">Published</change><change xml:id="refBibs-istex" who="#ISTEX-API" when="2016-12-22">References added</change></revisionDesc></teiHeader></istex:fulltextTEI><json:item><extension>txt</extension><original>false</original><mimetype>text/plain</mimetype><uri>https://api.istex.fr/document/A3783684D63386C64A4E3CF0155C7B3D112BAED5/fulltext/txt</uri></json:item></fulltext><metadata><istex:metadataXml wicri:clean="corpus oup" wicri:toSee="no header"><istex:docType PUBLIC="-//NLM//DTD Journal Publishing DTD v2.3 20070202//EN" URI="journalpublishing.dtd" name="istex:docType"></istex:docType><istex:document><article article-type="research-article"><front><journal-meta><journal-id journal-id-type="hwp">jexbot</journal-id><journal-id journal-id-type="publisher-id">exbotj</journal-id><journal-id journal-id-type="pmc">jexbot</journal-id><journal-title>Journal of Experimental Botany</journal-title><issn pub-type="epub">1460-2431</issn><issn pub-type="ppub">0022-0957</issn><publisher><publisher-name>Oxford University Press</publisher-name></publisher></journal-meta><article-meta><article-id pub-id-type="publisher-id">43.8.1159</article-id><article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.1093/jxb/43.8.1159</article-id><article-categories><subj-group><subject>Articles</subject></subj-group></article-categories><title-group><article-title>Some Implications of Climatic Change for Agriculture in Europe</article-title></title-group><contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>CARTER</surname><given-names>T. R.</given-names></name><xref ref-type="corresp" rid="cor1"><sup>1</sup></xref></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>PORTER</surname><given-names>J. H.</given-names></name><xref ref-type="corresp" rid="cor1"><sup>2</sup></xref></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>PARRY</surname><given-names>M. L.</given-names></name><xref ref-type="corresp" rid="cor1"><sup>3</sup></xref></contrib><aff><institution>Environmental Change Unit, University of Oxford</institution> <addr-line>Oxford OX1 3TB, UK</addr-line></aff></contrib-group><author-notes><corresp id="cor1"><sup>3</sup> To whom correspondance should be addressed.</corresp><fn id="fn1"><p><sup>1</sup> Present address: Finnish Meteorological Institute, P.O.B. 503, SF-00101, Helsinki, Finland.</p></fn><fn id="fn2"><p><sup>2</sup> Present address: Climatic Impacts Centre, Macquarie University, Sydney, NSW 2109, Australia.</p></fn></author-notes><pub-date pub-type="ppub"><month>8</month><year>1992</year></pub-date><volume>43</volume><issue>8</issue><fpage>1159</fpage><lpage>1167</lpage><copyright-statement>© Oxford University Press 1992</copyright-statement><copyright-year>1992</copyright-year><abstract><p>Initial results are reported of a study to evaluate the broad-scale sensitivity of agriculture in Europe to climatic change. The study relates an agroclimatic index, effective temperature sum (<italic>ETS</italic>), to the cultivable limits of grain maize. A computer mapping system for the European region is adopted to map <italic>ETS</italic> on the basis both of present-day and of possible future mean temperatures. In this way, changes in climate can be depicted as geographical shifts of the limit of potential grain maize cultivation.</p><p>The results indicate that a mean annual temperature increase of only 1 °C (within the present-day range of inter-annual variability) would open up large areas in southern England, the Low Countries, eastern Denmark, northern Germany, and northern Poland to potential grain maize cultivation. An increase of 4°C would move the limit into central Fennoscandia and northern Russia. The latter changes are similar to those projected by general circulation models (GCMs) for an equivalent doubling of atmospheric carbon dioxide, and represent rates of northward shift of approximately 200–350 km/°C in western Europe and 250–400 km/°C in eastern Europe.</p><p>Results using information from GCM transient-response experiments indicate that such shifts could occur as soon as the 2050s if the current exponential growth in emission rates of greenhouse gases were to continue unabated. The rate of shift of the grain maize limit implied for this high (and improbable) emissions scenario is in the order of 150–200 km per decade over the next 70 years, slower than this during the next few decades, but faster thereafter. It is probable that the actual rate will be lower than this, but even values of half those calculated, if sustained, would still represent rates of shift in agroclimatic potential that are unprecedented in the historical record.</p></abstract></article-meta></front></article></istex:document></istex:metadataXml><mods version="3.6"><titleInfo><title>Some Implications of Climatic Change for Agriculture in Europe</title></titleInfo><titleInfo type="alternative" contentType="CDATA"><title>Some Implications of Climatic Change for Agriculture in Europe</title></titleInfo><name type="personal"><namePart type="given">T. R.</namePart><namePart type="family">CARTER</namePart><affiliation>Environmental Change Unit, University of Oxford, Oxford OX1 3TB, UK</affiliation><role><roleTerm type="text">author</roleTerm></role></name><name type="personal"><namePart type="given">J. 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A computer mapping system for the European region is adopted to map ETS on the basis both of present-day and of possible future mean temperatures. In this way, changes in climate can be depicted as geographical shifts of the limit of potential grain maize cultivation. The results indicate that a mean annual temperature increase of only 1 °C (within the present-day range of inter-annual variability) would open up large areas in southern England, the Low Countries, eastern Denmark, northern Germany, and northern Poland to potential grain maize cultivation. An increase of 4°C would move the limit into central Fennoscandia and northern Russia. The latter changes are similar to those projected by general circulation models (GCMs) for an equivalent doubling of atmospheric carbon dioxide, and represent rates of northward shift of approximately 200–350 km/°C in western Europe and 250–400 km/°C in eastern Europe. Results using information from GCM transient-response experiments indicate that such shifts could occur as soon as the 2050s if the current exponential growth in emission rates of greenhouse gases were to continue unabated. The rate of shift of the grain maize limit implied for this high (and improbable) emissions scenario is in the order of 150–200 km per decade over the next 70 years, slower than this during the next few decades, but faster thereafter. It is probable that the actual rate will be lower than this, but even values of half those calculated, if sustained, would still represent rates of shift in agroclimatic potential that are unprecedented in the historical record.</abstract><note type="footnotes">1 Present address: Finnish Meteorological Institute, P.O.B. 503, SF-00101, Helsinki, Finland.</note><note type="author-notes">3 To whom correspondance should be addressed.</note><relatedItem type="host"><titleInfo><title>Journal of Experimental Botany</title></titleInfo><genre type="journal">journal</genre><identifier type="ISSN">0022-0957</identifier><identifier type="eISSN">1460-2431</identifier><identifier type="PublisherID">exbotj</identifier><identifier type="PublisherID-hwp">jexbot</identifier><part><date>1992</date><detail type="volume"><caption>vol.</caption><number>43</number></detail><detail type="issue"><caption>no.</caption><number>8</number></detail><extent unit="pages"><start>1159</start><end>1167</end></extent></part></relatedItem><identifier type="istex">A3783684D63386C64A4E3CF0155C7B3D112BAED5</identifier><identifier type="DOI">10.1093/jxb/43.8.1159</identifier><identifier type="ArticleID">43.8.1159</identifier><accessCondition type="use and reproduction" contentType="copyright">© Oxford University Press 1992</accessCondition><recordInfo><recordContentSource>OUP</recordContentSource></recordInfo></mods></metadata><annexes><json:item><extension>pdf</extension><original>true</original><mimetype>application/pdf</mimetype><uri>https://api.istex.fr/document/A3783684D63386C64A4E3CF0155C7B3D112BAED5/annexes/pdf</uri></json:item></annexes><serie></serie></istex></record>Pour manipuler ce document sous Unix (Dilib)
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