On the brink of extinction? How climate change may affect global chelonian species richness and distribution
Identifieur interne : 001854 ( Istex/Corpus ); précédent : 001853; suivant : 001855On the brink of extinction? How climate change may affect global chelonian species richness and distribution
Auteurs : Flora Ihlow ; Johannes Dambach ; Jan O. Engler ; Morris Flecks ; Timo Hartmann ; Sven Nekum ; Hossein Rajaei ; Dennis RödderSource :
- Global Change Biology [ 1354-1013 ] ; 2012-05.
Abstract
Anthropogenic global climate change has already led to alterations in biodiversity patterns by directly and indirectly affecting species distributions. It has been suggested that poikilothermic animals, including reptiles, will be particularly affected by global change and large‐scale reptile declines have already been observed. Currently, half of the world's freshwater turtles and tortoises are considered threatened with extinction, and climate change may exacerbate these declines. In this study, we assess how global chelonian species richness will change in the near future. We use species distribution models developed under current climate conditions for 78% of all extant species and project them onto different Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) scenarios for 2080. We detect a strong dependence of temperature shaping most species ranges, which coincide with their general temperature‐related physiological traits (i.e., temperature‐dependent sex determination). Furthermore, the extent and distribution of the current bioclimatic niches of most chelonians may change remarkably in the near future, likely leading to a substantial decrease of local species abundance and ultimately a reduction in species richness. Future climatic changes may cause the ranges of 86% of the species to contract, and of these ranges, nearly 12% are predicted to be situated completely outside their currently realized niches. Hence, the interplay of increasing habitat fragmentation and loss due to climatic stress may result in a serious threat for several chelonian species.
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DOI: 10.1111/j.1365-2486.2011.02623.x
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How climate change may affect global chelonian species richness and distribution</title><author><name sortKey="Ihlow, Flora" sort="Ihlow, Flora" uniqKey="Ihlow F" first="Flora" last="Ihlow">Flora Ihlow</name><affiliation><mods:affiliation>Zoologisches Forschungsmuseum Alexander Koenig, Adenauerallee 160, D‐53113, Bonn, Germany</mods:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Dambach, Johannes" sort="Dambach, Johannes" uniqKey="Dambach J" first="Johannes" last="Dambach">Johannes Dambach</name><affiliation><mods:affiliation>Zoologisches Forschungsmuseum Alexander Koenig, Adenauerallee 160, D‐53113, Bonn, Germany</mods:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Engler, Jan O" sort="Engler, Jan O" uniqKey="Engler J" first="Jan O." last="Engler">Jan O. Engler</name><affiliation><mods:affiliation>Zoologisches Forschungsmuseum Alexander Koenig, Adenauerallee 160, D‐53113, Bonn, Germany</mods:affiliation></affiliation><affiliation><mods:affiliation>Biogeography Department, Trier University, Universitätsring 15, Germany, D‐54286, Trier</mods:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Flecks, Morris" sort="Flecks, Morris" uniqKey="Flecks M" first="Morris" last="Flecks">Morris Flecks</name><affiliation><mods:affiliation>Zoologisches Forschungsmuseum Alexander Koenig, Adenauerallee 160, D‐53113, Bonn, Germany</mods:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Hartmann, Timo" sort="Hartmann, Timo" uniqKey="Hartmann T" first="Timo" last="Hartmann">Timo Hartmann</name><affiliation><mods:affiliation>Zoologisches Forschungsmuseum Alexander Koenig, Adenauerallee 160, D‐53113, Bonn, Germany</mods:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Nekum, Sven" sort="Nekum, Sven" uniqKey="Nekum S" first="Sven" last="Nekum">Sven Nekum</name><affiliation><mods:affiliation>Zoologisches Forschungsmuseum Alexander Koenig, Adenauerallee 160, D‐53113, Bonn, Germany</mods:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Rajaei, Hossein" sort="Rajaei, Hossein" uniqKey="Rajaei H" first="Hossein" last="Rajaei">Hossein Rajaei</name><affiliation><mods:affiliation>Zoologisches Forschungsmuseum Alexander Koenig, Adenauerallee 160, D‐53113, Bonn, Germany</mods:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Rodder, Dennis" sort="Rodder, Dennis" uniqKey="Rodder D" first="Dennis" last="Rödder">Dennis Rödder</name><affiliation><mods:affiliation>Zoologisches Forschungsmuseum Alexander Koenig, Adenauerallee 160, D‐53113, Bonn, Germany</mods:affiliation></affiliation><affiliation><mods:affiliation>E-mail: d.roedder.zfmk@uni-bonn.de</mods:affiliation></affiliation></author></analytic><monogr></monogr><series><title level="j">Global Change Biology</title><title level="j" type="abbrev">Glob Change Biol</title><idno type="ISSN">1354-1013</idno><idno type="eISSN">1365-2486</idno><imprint><publisher>Blackwell Publishing Ltd</publisher><date type="published" when="2012-05">2012-05</date><biblScope unit="volume">18</biblScope><biblScope unit="issue">5</biblScope><biblScope unit="page" from="1520">1520</biblScope><biblScope unit="page" to="1530">1530</biblScope></imprint><idno type="ISSN">1354-1013</idno></series><idno type="istex">4AE5E933FE16F7D06F09A138AC9DA4095F9D99CC</idno><idno type="DOI">10.1111/j.1365-2486.2011.02623.x</idno><idno type="ArticleID">GCB2623</idno></biblStruct></sourceDesc><seriesStmt><idno type="ISSN">1354-1013</idno></seriesStmt></fileDesc><profileDesc><textClass></textClass><langUsage><language ident="en">en</language></langUsage></profileDesc></teiHeader><front><div type="abstract">Anthropogenic global climate change has already led to alterations in biodiversity patterns by directly and indirectly affecting species distributions. It has been suggested that poikilothermic animals, including reptiles, will be particularly affected by global change and large‐scale reptile declines have already been observed. Currently, half of the world's freshwater turtles and tortoises are considered threatened with extinction, and climate change may exacerbate these declines. In this study, we assess how global chelonian species richness will change in the near future. We use species distribution models developed under current climate conditions for 78% of all extant species and project them onto different Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) scenarios for 2080. We detect a strong dependence of temperature shaping most species ranges, which coincide with their general temperature‐related physiological traits (i.e., temperature‐dependent sex determination). Furthermore, the extent and distribution of the current bioclimatic niches of most chelonians may change remarkably in the near future, likely leading to a substantial decrease of local species abundance and ultimately a reduction in species richness. Future climatic changes may cause the ranges of 86% of the species to contract, and of these ranges, nearly 12% are predicted to be situated completely outside their currently realized niches. Hence, the interplay of increasing habitat fragmentation and loss due to climatic stress may result in a serious threat for several chelonian species.</div></front></TEI><istex><corpusName>wiley</corpusName><author><json:item><name>Flora Ihlow</name><affiliations><json:string>Zoologisches Forschungsmuseum Alexander Koenig, Adenauerallee 160, D‐53113, Bonn, Germany</json:string></affiliations></json:item><json:item><name>Johannes Dambach</name><affiliations><json:string>Zoologisches Forschungsmuseum Alexander Koenig, Adenauerallee 160, D‐53113, Bonn, Germany</json:string></affiliations></json:item><json:item><name>Jan O. Engler</name><affiliations><json:string>Zoologisches Forschungsmuseum Alexander Koenig, Adenauerallee 160, D‐53113, Bonn, Germany</json:string><json:string>Biogeography Department, Trier University, Universitätsring 15, Germany, D‐54286, Trier</json:string></affiliations></json:item><json:item><name>Morris Flecks</name><affiliations><json:string>Zoologisches Forschungsmuseum Alexander Koenig, Adenauerallee 160, D‐53113, Bonn, Germany</json:string></affiliations></json:item><json:item><name>Timo Hartmann</name><affiliations><json:string>Zoologisches Forschungsmuseum Alexander Koenig, Adenauerallee 160, D‐53113, Bonn, Germany</json:string></affiliations></json:item><json:item><name>Sven Nekum</name><affiliations><json:string>Zoologisches Forschungsmuseum Alexander Koenig, Adenauerallee 160, D‐53113, Bonn, Germany</json:string></affiliations></json:item><json:item><name>Hossein Rajaei</name><affiliations><json:string>Zoologisches Forschungsmuseum Alexander Koenig, Adenauerallee 160, D‐53113, Bonn, Germany</json:string></affiliations></json:item><json:item><name>Dennis Rödder</name><affiliations><json:string>Zoologisches Forschungsmuseum Alexander Koenig, Adenauerallee 160, D‐53113, Bonn, Germany</json:string><json:string>E-mail: d.roedder.zfmk@uni-bonn.de</json:string></affiliations></json:item></author><subject><json:item><lang><json:string>eng</json:string></lang><value>biodiversity</value></json:item><json:item><lang><json:string>eng</json:string></lang><value>chelonia</value></json:item><json:item><lang><json:string>eng</json:string></lang><value>extrapolation</value></json:item><json:item><lang><json:string>eng</json:string></lang><value>species distribution modeling</value></json:item><json:item><lang><json:string>eng</json:string></lang><value>species range</value></json:item><json:item><lang><json:string>eng</json:string></lang><value>temperature‐dependent sex determination (TSD)</value></json:item></subject><articleId><json:string>GCB2623</json:string></articleId><language><json:string>eng</json:string></language><originalGenre><json:string>article</json:string></originalGenre><abstract>Anthropogenic global climate change has already led to alterations in biodiversity patterns by directly and indirectly affecting species distributions. It has been suggested that poikilothermic animals, including reptiles, will be particularly affected by global change and large‐scale reptile declines have already been observed. Currently, half of the world's freshwater turtles and tortoises are considered threatened with extinction, and climate change may exacerbate these declines. In this study, we assess how global chelonian species richness will change in the near future. We use species distribution models developed under current climate conditions for 78% of all extant species and project them onto different Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) scenarios for 2080. We detect a strong dependence of temperature shaping most species ranges, which coincide with their general temperature‐related physiological traits (i.e., temperature‐dependent sex determination). Furthermore, the extent and distribution of the current bioclimatic niches of most chelonians may change remarkably in the near future, likely leading to a substantial decrease of local species abundance and ultimately a reduction in species richness. Future climatic changes may cause the ranges of 86% of the species to contract, and of these ranges, nearly 12% are predicted to be situated completely outside their currently realized niches. Hence, the interplay of increasing habitat fragmentation and loss due to climatic stress may result in a serious threat for several chelonian species.</abstract><qualityIndicators><score>7.688</score><pdfVersion>1.3</pdfVersion><pdfPageSize>595.276 x 782.362 pts</pdfPageSize><refBibsNative>true</refBibsNative><abstractCharCount>1585</abstractCharCount><pdfWordCount>6879</pdfWordCount><pdfCharCount>42918</pdfCharCount><pdfPageCount>11</pdfPageCount><abstractWordCount>224</abstractWordCount></qualityIndicators><title>On the brink of extinction? 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How climate change may affect global chelonian species richness and distribution</title></titleStmt><publicationStmt><authority>ISTEX</authority><publisher>Blackwell Publishing Ltd</publisher><availability><p>Copyright © 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd© 2011 Blackwell Publishing Ltd</p></availability><date>2011-12-13</date></publicationStmt><notesStmt><note>Appendix S1. Summary statistics for each species comprising the number of species records, coordinates of the centroid of the distribution, training and test AUC scores, variable contributions, presence/absence thresholds, projection area, number of suitable cells within the projection area, number of currently suitable cells, which are still suitable by the year 2080, and proportion of the projection area within the current potential niche by 2080 as quantified via MESS analyses.Appendix S2. Median relative variable contributions across all species per 0.1° grid cell. Abbreviations are ‘mean diurnal range’ [mean of monthly (max temp − min temp)] (bio2), ‘min temperature of coldest month’ (bio6), ‘mean temperature of wettest quarter’ (bio8), ‘mean temperature of driest quarter’ (bio9), ‘mean temperature of warmest quarter’ (bio10), ‘precipitation seasonality’ (coefficient of variation) (bio15), ‘precipitation of wettest quarter’(bio16), ‘precipitation of driest quarter’(bio 17), ‘precipitation of warmest quarter’(bio18), and ‘precipitation of coldest quarter’ (bio19).</note></notesStmt><sourceDesc><biblStruct type="inbook"><analytic><title level="a" type="main" xml:lang="en">On the brink of extinction? How climate change may affect global chelonian species richness and distribution</title><author xml:id="author-1"><persName><forename type="first">Flora</forename><surname>Ihlow</surname></persName><affiliation>Zoologisches Forschungsmuseum Alexander Koenig, Adenauerallee 160, D‐53113, Bonn, Germany</affiliation></author><author xml:id="author-2"><persName><forename type="first">Johannes</forename><surname>Dambach</surname></persName><affiliation>Zoologisches Forschungsmuseum Alexander Koenig, Adenauerallee 160, D‐53113, Bonn, Germany</affiliation></author><author xml:id="author-3"><persName><forename type="first">Jan O.</forename><surname>Engler</surname></persName><affiliation>Zoologisches Forschungsmuseum Alexander Koenig, Adenauerallee 160, D‐53113, Bonn, Germany</affiliation><affiliation>Biogeography Department, Trier University, Universitätsring 15, Germany, D‐54286, Trier</affiliation></author><author xml:id="author-4"><persName><forename type="first">Morris</forename><surname>Flecks</surname></persName><affiliation>Zoologisches Forschungsmuseum Alexander Koenig, Adenauerallee 160, D‐53113, Bonn, Germany</affiliation></author><author xml:id="author-5"><persName><forename type="first">Timo</forename><surname>Hartmann</surname></persName><affiliation>Zoologisches Forschungsmuseum Alexander Koenig, Adenauerallee 160, D‐53113, Bonn, Germany</affiliation></author><author xml:id="author-6"><persName><forename type="first">Sven</forename><surname>Nekum</surname></persName><affiliation>Zoologisches Forschungsmuseum Alexander Koenig, Adenauerallee 160, D‐53113, Bonn, Germany</affiliation></author><author xml:id="author-7"><persName><forename type="first">Hossein</forename><surname>Rajaei</surname></persName><affiliation>Zoologisches Forschungsmuseum Alexander Koenig, Adenauerallee 160, D‐53113, Bonn, Germany</affiliation></author><author xml:id="author-8"><persName><forename type="first">Dennis</forename><surname>Rödder</surname></persName><email>d.roedder.zfmk@uni-bonn.de</email><affiliation>Zoologisches Forschungsmuseum Alexander Koenig, Adenauerallee 160, D‐53113, Bonn, Germany</affiliation></author></analytic><monogr><title level="j">Global Change Biology</title><title level="j" type="abbrev">Glob Change Biol</title><idno type="pISSN">1354-1013</idno><idno type="eISSN">1365-2486</idno><idno type="DOI">10.1111/(ISSN)1365-2486</idno><imprint><publisher>Blackwell Publishing Ltd</publisher><date type="published" when="2012-05"></date><biblScope unit="volume">18</biblScope><biblScope unit="issue">5</biblScope><biblScope unit="page" from="1520">1520</biblScope><biblScope unit="page" to="1530">1530</biblScope></imprint></monogr><idno type="istex">4AE5E933FE16F7D06F09A138AC9DA4095F9D99CC</idno><idno type="DOI">10.1111/j.1365-2486.2011.02623.x</idno><idno type="ArticleID">GCB2623</idno></biblStruct></sourceDesc></fileDesc><profileDesc><creation><date>2011-12-13</date></creation><langUsage><language ident="en">en</language></langUsage><abstract><p>Anthropogenic global climate change has already led to alterations in biodiversity patterns by directly and indirectly affecting species distributions. It has been suggested that poikilothermic animals, including reptiles, will be particularly affected by global change and large‐scale reptile declines have already been observed. Currently, half of the world's freshwater turtles and tortoises are considered threatened with extinction, and climate change may exacerbate these declines. In this study, we assess how global chelonian species richness will change in the near future. We use species distribution models developed under current climate conditions for 78% of all extant species and project them onto different Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) scenarios for 2080. We detect a strong dependence of temperature shaping most species ranges, which coincide with their general temperature‐related physiological traits (i.e., temperature‐dependent sex determination). Furthermore, the extent and distribution of the current bioclimatic niches of most chelonians may change remarkably in the near future, likely leading to a substantial decrease of local species abundance and ultimately a reduction in species richness. Future climatic changes may cause the ranges of 86% of the species to contract, and of these ranges, nearly 12% are predicted to be situated completely outside their currently realized niches. Hence, the interplay of increasing habitat fragmentation and loss due to climatic stress may result in a serious threat for several chelonian species.</p></abstract><textClass><keywords scheme="keyword"><list><head>keywords</head><item><term>biodiversity</term></item><item><term>chelonia</term></item><item><term>extrapolation</term></item><item><term>species distribution modeling</term></item><item><term>species range</term></item><item><term>temperature‐dependent sex determination (TSD)</term></item></list></keywords></textClass><textClass><keywords scheme="Journal Subject"><list><head>article-category</head><item><term>Primary Research Article</term></item></list></keywords></textClass></profileDesc><revisionDesc><change when="2011-10-07">Received</change><change when="2011-10-29">Registration</change><change when="2011-12-13">Created</change><change when="2012-05">Published</change></revisionDesc></teiHeader></istex:fulltextTEI><json:item><extension>txt</extension><original>false</original><mimetype>text/plain</mimetype><uri>https://api.istex.fr/document/4AE5E933FE16F7D06F09A138AC9DA4095F9D99CC/fulltext/txt</uri></json:item></fulltext><metadata><istex:metadataXml wicri:clean="Wiley, elements deleted: body"><istex:xmlDeclaration>version="1.0" encoding="UTF-8" standalone="yes"</istex:xmlDeclaration><istex:document><component type="serialArticle" version="2.0" xml:id="gcb2623" xml:lang="en"><header><publicationMeta level="product"><doi origin="wiley" registered="yes">10.1111/(ISSN)1365-2486</doi><issn type="print">1354-1013</issn><issn type="electronic">1365-2486</issn><idGroup><id type="product" value="GCB"></id></idGroup><titleGroup><title sort="GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY" type="main">Global Change Biology</title><title type="short">Glob Change Biol</title></titleGroup></publicationMeta><publicationMeta level="part" position="05105"><doi origin="wiley">10.1111/gcb.2012.18.issue-5</doi><copyright ownership="publisher">Copyright © 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd</copyright><numberingGroup><numbering type="journalVolume" number="18">18</numbering><numbering type="journalIssue">5</numbering></numberingGroup><coverDate startDate="2012-05">May 2012</coverDate></publicationMeta><publicationMeta level="unit" position="50" status="forIssue" type="article"><doi>10.1111/j.1365-2486.2011.02623.x</doi><idGroup><id type="unit" value="GCB2623"></id></idGroup><countGroup><count number="11" type="pageTotal"></count></countGroup><titleGroup><title type="articleCategory">Primary Research Article</title><title type="tocHeading1">Primary Research Articles</title></titleGroup><copyright ownership="publisher">© 2011 Blackwell Publishing Ltd</copyright><eventGroup><event date="2011-10-07" type="manuscriptReceived"></event><event date="2011-10-29" type="manuscriptAccepted"></event><event agent="SPS" date="2011-12-13" type="xmlCreated"></event><event agent="SPS" date="2012-01-25" type="xmlCorrected"></event><event type="publishedOnlineAccepted" date="2011-12-06"></event><event type="publishedOnlineEarlyUnpaginated" date="2012-01-20"></event><event type="publishedOnlineFinalForm" date="2012-04-09"></event><event type="firstOnline" date="2012-01-20"></event><event type="xmlConverted" agent="Converter:WILEY_ML3G_TO_WILEY_ML3GV2 version:3.8.8" date="2014-01-25"></event><event type="xmlConverted" agent="Converter:WML3G_To_WML3G version:4.3.4 mode:FullText" date="2015-02-25"></event></eventGroup><numberingGroup><numbering type="pageFirst">1520</numbering><numbering type="pageLast">1530</numbering></numberingGroup><correspondenceTo>Correspondence: Dennis Rödder, tel. + 0049 228 9122 252, fax + 0049 228 9122 212, e‐mail: <email>d.roedder.zfmk@uni-bonn.de</email></correspondenceTo><linkGroup><link type="toTypesetVersion" href="file:GCB.GCB2623.pdf"></link></linkGroup></publicationMeta><contentMeta><titleGroup><title type="main">On the brink of extinction? How climate change may affect global chelonian species richness and distribution</title><title type="shortAuthors">F. Ihlow <i>et al</i>.</title></titleGroup><creators><creator affiliationRef="#gcb2623-aff-0001" creatorRole="author" xml:id="gcb2623-cr-0001"><personName><givenNames>Flora</givenNames> <familyName>Ihlow</familyName></personName></creator><creator affiliationRef="#gcb2623-aff-0001" creatorRole="author" xml:id="gcb2623-cr-0002"><personName><givenNames>Johannes</givenNames> <familyName>Dambach</familyName></personName></creator><creator affiliationRef="#gcb2623-aff-0001 #gcb2623-aff-0002" creatorRole="author" xml:id="gcb2623-cr-0003"><personName><givenNames>Jan O.</givenNames> <familyName>Engler</familyName></personName></creator><creator affiliationRef="#gcb2623-aff-0001" creatorRole="author" xml:id="gcb2623-cr-0004"><personName><givenNames>Morris</givenNames> <familyName>Flecks</familyName></personName></creator><creator affiliationRef="#gcb2623-aff-0001" creatorRole="author" xml:id="gcb2623-cr-0005"><personName><givenNames>Timo</givenNames> <familyName>Hartmann</familyName></personName></creator><creator affiliationRef="#gcb2623-aff-0001" creatorRole="author" xml:id="gcb2623-cr-0006"><personName><givenNames>Sven</givenNames> <familyName>Nekum</familyName></personName></creator><creator affiliationRef="#gcb2623-aff-0001" creatorRole="author" xml:id="gcb2623-cr-0007"><personName><givenNames>Hossein</givenNames> <familyName>Rajaei</familyName></personName></creator><creator affiliationRef="#gcb2623-aff-0001" corresponding="yes" creatorRole="author" xml:id="gcb2623-cr-0008"><personName><givenNames>Dennis</givenNames> <familyName>Rödder</familyName></personName></creator></creators><affiliationGroup><affiliation countryCode="DE" type="organization" xml:id="gcb2623-aff-0001"><orgName>Zoologisches Forschungsmuseum Alexander Koenig</orgName> <address><street>Adenauerallee 160</street> <postCode>D‐53113</postCode> <city>Bonn</city> <country>Germany</country></address></affiliation><affiliation type="organization" xml:id="gcb2623-aff-0002"><orgDiv>Biogeography Department</orgDiv> <orgName>Trier University</orgName> <address><street>Universitätsring 15</street> <postCode>D‐54286</postCode> <city>Trier</city> <countryPart>Germany</countryPart></address></affiliation></affiliationGroup><keywordGroup type="author"><keyword xml:id="gcb2623-kwd-0001">biodiversity</keyword><keyword xml:id="gcb2623-kwd-0002">chelonia</keyword><keyword xml:id="gcb2623-kwd-0003">extrapolation</keyword><keyword xml:id="gcb2623-kwd-0004">species distribution modeling</keyword><keyword xml:id="gcb2623-kwd-0005">species range</keyword><keyword xml:id="gcb2623-kwd-0006">temperature‐dependent sex determination (<fc>TSD</fc>)</keyword></keywordGroup><supportingInformation><supportingInfoItem><mediaResource alt="supporting" mimeType="application/msexcel" href="urn-x:wiley:13541013:media:gcb2623:gcb2623-sup-0001-AppendixS1"></mediaResource><caption><b>Appendix S1.</b> Summary statistics for each species comprising the number of species records, coordinates of the centroid of the distribution, training and test <fc>AUC</fc> scores, variable contributions, presence/absence thresholds, projection area, number of suitable cells within the projection area, number of currently suitable cells, which are still suitable by the year 2080, and proportion of the projection area within the current potential niche by 2080 as quantified via <fc>MESS</fc> analyses.</caption></supportingInfoItem><supportingInfoItem><mediaResource alt="supporting" mimeType="image/tif" rendition="webOriginal" href="urn-x:wiley:13541013:media:gcb2623:gcb2623-sup-0002-AppendixS2"></mediaResource><caption><b>Appendix S2.</b> Median relative variable contributions across all species per 0.1° grid cell. Abbreviations are ‘mean diurnal range’ [mean of monthly (max temp − min temp)] (bio2), ‘min temperature of coldest month’ (bio6), ‘mean temperature of wettest quarter’ (bio8), ‘mean temperature of driest quarter’ (bio9), ‘mean temperature of warmest quarter’ (bio10), ‘precipitation seasonality’ (coefficient of variation) (bio15), ‘precipitation of wettest quarter’(bio16), ‘precipitation of driest quarter’(bio 17), ‘precipitation of warmest quarter’(bio18), and ‘precipitation of coldest quarter’ (bio19).</caption></supportingInfoItem></supportingInformation><abstractGroup><abstract type="main" xml:id="gcb2623-abs-0001"><title type="main">Abstract</title><p>Anthropogenic global climate change has already led to alterations in biodiversity patterns by directly and indirectly affecting species distributions. It has been suggested that poikilothermic animals, including reptiles, will be particularly affected by global change and large‐scale reptile declines have already been observed. Currently, half of the world's freshwater turtles and tortoises are considered threatened with extinction, and climate change may exacerbate these declines. In this study, we assess how global chelonian species richness will change in the near future. We use species distribution models developed under current climate conditions for 78% of all extant species and project them onto different Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (<fc>IPCC</fc>) scenarios for 2080. We detect a strong dependence of temperature shaping most species ranges, which coincide with their general temperature‐related physiological traits (i.e., temperature‐dependent sex determination). Furthermore, the extent and distribution of the current bioclimatic niches of most chelonians may change remarkably in the near future, likely leading to a substantial decrease of local species abundance and ultimately a reduction in species richness. Future climatic changes may cause the ranges of 86% of the species to contract, and of these ranges, nearly 12% are predicted to be situated completely outside their currently realized niches. Hence, the interplay of increasing habitat fragmentation and loss due to climatic stress may result in a serious threat for several chelonian species.</p></abstract></abstractGroup></contentMeta></header></component></istex:document></istex:metadataXml><mods version="3.6"><titleInfo lang="en"><title>On the brink of extinction? How climate change may affect global chelonian species richness and distribution</title></titleInfo><titleInfo type="alternative" contentType="CDATA" lang="en"><title>On the brink of extinction? How climate change may affect global chelonian species richness and distribution</title></titleInfo><name type="personal"><namePart type="given">Flora</namePart><namePart type="family">Ihlow</namePart><affiliation>Zoologisches Forschungsmuseum Alexander Koenig, Adenauerallee 160, D‐53113, Bonn, Germany</affiliation><role><roleTerm type="text">author</roleTerm></role></name><name type="personal"><namePart type="given">Johannes</namePart><namePart type="family">Dambach</namePart><affiliation>Zoologisches Forschungsmuseum Alexander Koenig, Adenauerallee 160, D‐53113, Bonn, Germany</affiliation><role><roleTerm type="text">author</roleTerm></role></name><name type="personal"><namePart type="given">Jan O.</namePart><namePart type="family">Engler</namePart><affiliation>Zoologisches Forschungsmuseum Alexander Koenig, Adenauerallee 160, D‐53113, Bonn, Germany</affiliation><affiliation>Biogeography Department, Trier University, Universitätsring 15, Germany, D‐54286, Trier</affiliation><role><roleTerm type="text">author</roleTerm></role></name><name type="personal"><namePart type="given">Morris</namePart><namePart type="family">Flecks</namePart><affiliation>Zoologisches Forschungsmuseum Alexander Koenig, Adenauerallee 160, D‐53113, Bonn, Germany</affiliation><role><roleTerm type="text">author</roleTerm></role></name><name type="personal"><namePart type="given">Timo</namePart><namePart type="family">Hartmann</namePart><affiliation>Zoologisches Forschungsmuseum Alexander Koenig, Adenauerallee 160, D‐53113, Bonn, Germany</affiliation><role><roleTerm type="text">author</roleTerm></role></name><name type="personal"><namePart type="given">Sven</namePart><namePart type="family">Nekum</namePart><affiliation>Zoologisches Forschungsmuseum Alexander Koenig, Adenauerallee 160, D‐53113, Bonn, Germany</affiliation><role><roleTerm type="text">author</roleTerm></role></name><name type="personal"><namePart type="given">Hossein</namePart><namePart type="family">Rajaei</namePart><affiliation>Zoologisches Forschungsmuseum Alexander Koenig, Adenauerallee 160, D‐53113, Bonn, Germany</affiliation><role><roleTerm type="text">author</roleTerm></role></name><name type="personal"><namePart type="given">Dennis</namePart><namePart type="family">Rödder</namePart><affiliation>Zoologisches Forschungsmuseum Alexander Koenig, Adenauerallee 160, D‐53113, Bonn, Germany</affiliation><affiliation>E-mail: d.roedder.zfmk@uni-bonn.de</affiliation><role><roleTerm type="text">author</roleTerm></role></name><typeOfResource>text</typeOfResource><genre type="article" displayLabel="article"></genre><originInfo><publisher>Blackwell Publishing Ltd</publisher><dateIssued encoding="w3cdtf">2012-05</dateIssued><dateCreated encoding="w3cdtf">2011-12-13</dateCreated><dateCaptured encoding="w3cdtf">2011-10-07</dateCaptured><dateValid encoding="w3cdtf">2011-10-29</dateValid><copyrightDate encoding="w3cdtf">2012</copyrightDate></originInfo><language><languageTerm type="code" authority="rfc3066">en</languageTerm><languageTerm type="code" authority="iso639-2b">eng</languageTerm></language><physicalDescription><internetMediaType>text/html</internetMediaType></physicalDescription><abstract>Anthropogenic global climate change has already led to alterations in biodiversity patterns by directly and indirectly affecting species distributions. It has been suggested that poikilothermic animals, including reptiles, will be particularly affected by global change and large‐scale reptile declines have already been observed. Currently, half of the world's freshwater turtles and tortoises are considered threatened with extinction, and climate change may exacerbate these declines. In this study, we assess how global chelonian species richness will change in the near future. We use species distribution models developed under current climate conditions for 78% of all extant species and project them onto different Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) scenarios for 2080. We detect a strong dependence of temperature shaping most species ranges, which coincide with their general temperature‐related physiological traits (i.e., temperature‐dependent sex determination). Furthermore, the extent and distribution of the current bioclimatic niches of most chelonians may change remarkably in the near future, likely leading to a substantial decrease of local species abundance and ultimately a reduction in species richness. Future climatic changes may cause the ranges of 86% of the species to contract, and of these ranges, nearly 12% are predicted to be situated completely outside their currently realized niches. Hence, the interplay of increasing habitat fragmentation and loss due to climatic stress may result in a serious threat for several chelonian species.</abstract><note type="additional physical form">Appendix S1. Summary statistics for each species comprising the number of species records, coordinates of the centroid of the distribution, training and test AUC scores, variable contributions, presence/absence thresholds, projection area, number of suitable cells within the projection area, number of currently suitable cells, which are still suitable by the year 2080, and proportion of the projection area within the current potential niche by 2080 as quantified via MESS analyses.Appendix S2. Median relative variable contributions across all species per 0.1° grid cell. Abbreviations are ‘mean diurnal range’ [mean of monthly (max temp − min temp)] (bio2), ‘min temperature of coldest month’ (bio6), ‘mean temperature of wettest quarter’ (bio8), ‘mean temperature of driest quarter’ (bio9), ‘mean temperature of warmest quarter’ (bio10), ‘precipitation seasonality’ (coefficient of variation) (bio15), ‘precipitation of wettest quarter’(bio16), ‘precipitation of driest quarter’(bio 17), ‘precipitation of warmest quarter’(bio18), and ‘precipitation of coldest quarter’ (bio19).</note><subject><genre>keywords</genre><topic>biodiversity</topic><topic>chelonia</topic><topic>extrapolation</topic><topic>species distribution modeling</topic><topic>species range</topic><topic>temperature‐dependent sex determination (TSD)</topic></subject><relatedItem type="host"><titleInfo><title>Global Change Biology</title></titleInfo><titleInfo type="abbreviated"><title>Glob Change Biol</title></titleInfo><genre type="journal">journal</genre><subject><genre>article-category</genre><topic>Primary Research Article</topic></subject><identifier type="ISSN">1354-1013</identifier><identifier type="eISSN">1365-2486</identifier><identifier type="DOI">10.1111/(ISSN)1365-2486</identifier><identifier type="PublisherID">GCB</identifier><part><date>2012</date><detail type="volume"><caption>vol.</caption><number>18</number></detail><detail type="issue"><caption>no.</caption><number>5</number></detail><extent unit="pages"><start>1520</start><end>1530</end><total>11</total></extent></part></relatedItem><identifier type="istex">4AE5E933FE16F7D06F09A138AC9DA4095F9D99CC</identifier><identifier type="DOI">10.1111/j.1365-2486.2011.02623.x</identifier><identifier type="ArticleID">GCB2623</identifier><accessCondition type="use and reproduction" contentType="copyright">Copyright © 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd© 2011 Blackwell Publishing Ltd</accessCondition><recordInfo><recordContentSource>WILEY</recordContentSource></recordInfo></mods></metadata><serie></serie></istex></record>Pour manipuler ce document sous Unix (Dilib)
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