Global warming impacts and conservation responses for the critically endangered European Atlantic sturgeon
Identifieur interne : 000103 ( PascalFrancis/Checkpoint ); précédent : 000102; suivant : 000104Global warming impacts and conservation responses for the critically endangered European Atlantic sturgeon
Auteurs : Géraldine Lassalle [France] ; Philippe Crouzet [Danemark] ; Jörn Gessner [Allemagne] ; Eric Rochard [France]Source :
- Biological conservation [ 0006-3207 ] ; 2010.
Descripteurs français
- Pascal (Inist)
- Wicri :
- topic : Changement climatique.
English descriptors
- KwdEn :
Abstract
Due to anthropogenic actions, species have become endangered or have been driven to the verge of extinction, requiring conservation plans to be developed and implemented. These plans include measures to protect and enhance remaining populations and to reintroduce populations within the native ranges. However, future habitat suitability in the face of climate change is rarely assessed, despite the fact that it could compromise conservation opportunities. It is attempted to carry this task out for the critically endangered European Atlantic sturgeon (Acipenser sturio). Species presence/absence was documented for 196 basins between 1750 and 1850 over the Western Palearctic. A predictive distribution model was established from this database using Boosted Regression Trees (BRT) and a pool of relevant environmental variables. Projections were performed at two time-steps, 2050 and 2100, using the HadCM3 Global Climate Model (GCM) and the A2 and A1F1 emissions scenarios. The BRT model incorporated two general climatic descriptors, summer precipitation and annual air temperature, average slope served as a topographic predictor, and marine provinces as a macroecological variable. The statistical model performance allowed projections with the predictive deviance being 29 ± 2.80 and the Area Under the Curve (AUC) being 0.86 ± 0.02. The results obtained are in accordance with the species thermal preferences and with its hydrological habitat requirements. Most of the former sturgeon distribution range was assessed as being strongly affected by climate change, especially basins along the southern limit of its range. On this basis, proposals to integrate the climate change dimension into conservation strategy are discussed.
Affiliations:
- Allemagne, Danemark, France
- Aquitaine, Berlin, Hovedstaden, Nouvelle-Aquitaine
- Berlin, Cestas, Copenhague
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for the critically endangered European Atlantic sturgeon</title><author><name sortKey="Lassalle, Geraldine" sort="Lassalle, Geraldine" uniqKey="Lassalle G" first="Géraldine" last="Lassalle">Géraldine Lassalle</name><affiliation wicri:level="3"><inist:fA14 i1="01"><s1>Cemagref, Agricultural and Environmental Engineering Research Institute, UR EPBX, 50 Avenue de Verdun</s1><s2>33612 Cestas</s2><s3>FRA</s3><sZ>1 aut.</sZ><sZ>4 aut.</sZ></inist:fA14><country>France</country><placeName><region type="region" nuts="2">Nouvelle-Aquitaine</region><region type="old region" nuts="2">Aquitaine</region><settlement type="city">Cestas</settlement></placeName></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Crouzet, Philippe" sort="Crouzet, Philippe" uniqKey="Crouzet P" first="Philippe" last="Crouzet">Philippe Crouzet</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><inist:fA14 i1="02"><s1>EEA, European Environment Agency, Kongens Nytorv 6</s1><s2>1050 Copenhagen</s2><s3>DNK</s3><sZ>2 aut.</sZ></inist:fA14><country>Danemark</country><placeName><settlement type="city">Copenhague</settlement><region type="région" nuts="2">Hovedstaden</region></placeName></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Gessner, Jorn" sort="Gessner, Jorn" uniqKey="Gessner J" first="Jörn" last="Gessner">Jörn Gessner</name><affiliation wicri:level="3"><inist:fA14 i1="03"><s1>IGB, Leibniz-Institute of Freshwater Ecology and Inland Fisheries, Muggelseedamm 310</s1><s2>12587 Berlin</s2><s3>DEU</s3><sZ>3 aut.</sZ></inist:fA14><country>Allemagne</country><placeName><region type="land" nuts="3">Berlin</region><settlement type="city">Berlin</settlement></placeName></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Rochard, Eric" sort="Rochard, Eric" uniqKey="Rochard E" first="Eric" last="Rochard">Eric Rochard</name><affiliation wicri:level="3"><inist:fA14 i1="01"><s1>Cemagref, Agricultural and Environmental Engineering Research Institute, UR EPBX, 50 Avenue de Verdun</s1><s2>33612 Cestas</s2><s3>FRA</s3><sZ>1 aut.</sZ><sZ>4 aut.</sZ></inist:fA14><country>France</country><placeName><region type="region" nuts="2">Nouvelle-Aquitaine</region><region type="old region" nuts="2">Aquitaine</region><settlement type="city">Cestas</settlement></placeName></affiliation></author></analytic><series><title level="j" type="main">Biological conservation</title><title level="j" type="abbreviated">Biol. conserv.</title><idno type="ISSN">0006-3207</idno><imprint><date when="2010">2010</date></imprint></series></biblStruct></sourceDesc><seriesStmt><title level="j" type="main">Biological conservation</title><title level="j" type="abbreviated">Biol. conserv.</title><idno type="ISSN">0006-3207</idno></seriesStmt></fileDesc><profileDesc><textClass><keywords scheme="KwdEn" xml:lang="en"><term>Acipenser sturio</term><term>Climate change</term><term>Conservation</term><term>Decision tree</term><term>Distribution range</term><term>Endangered species</term><term>Environmental protection</term><term>European Atlantic</term><term>Forecast model</term><term>Global change</term><term>Regression analysis</term><term>Rehabilitation</term><term>Warming</term></keywords><keywords scheme="Pascal" xml:lang="fr"><term>Changement global</term><term>Réchauffement</term><term>Changement climatique</term><term>Conservation</term><term>Espèce menacée</term><term>Réhabilitation</term><term>Aire de distribution</term><term>Arbre décision</term><term>Analyse régression</term><term>Modèle prévision</term><term>Protection environnement</term><term>Acipenser sturio</term><term>Océan Atlantique Nord Est Europe</term></keywords><keywords scheme="Wicri" type="topic" xml:lang="fr"><term>Changement climatique</term></keywords></textClass></profileDesc></teiHeader><front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en">Due to anthropogenic actions, species have become endangered or have been driven to the verge of extinction, requiring conservation plans to be developed and implemented. These plans include measures to protect and enhance remaining populations and to reintroduce populations within the native ranges. However, future habitat suitability in the face of climate change is rarely assessed, despite the fact that it could compromise conservation opportunities. It is attempted to carry this task out for the critically endangered European Atlantic sturgeon (Acipenser sturio). Species presence/absence was documented for 196 basins between 1750 and 1850 over the Western Palearctic. A predictive distribution model was established from this database using Boosted Regression Trees (BRT) and a pool of relevant environmental variables. Projections were performed at two time-steps, 2050 and 2100, using the HadCM3 Global Climate Model (GCM) and the A2 and A1F1 emissions scenarios. The BRT model incorporated two general climatic descriptors, summer precipitation and annual air temperature, average slope served as a topographic predictor, and marine provinces as a macroecological variable. The statistical model performance allowed projections with the predictive deviance being 29 ± 2.80 and the Area Under the Curve (AUC) being 0.86 ± 0.02. The results obtained are in accordance with the species thermal preferences and with its hydrological habitat requirements. Most of the former sturgeon distribution range was assessed as being strongly affected by climate change, especially basins along the southern limit of its range. On this basis, proposals to integrate the climate change dimension into conservation strategy are discussed.</div></front></TEI><inist><standard h6="B"><pA><fA01 i1="01" i2="1"><s0>0006-3207</s0></fA01><fA02 i1="01"><s0>BICOBK</s0></fA02><fA03 i2="1"><s0>Biol. conserv.</s0></fA03><fA05><s2>143</s2></fA05><fA06><s2>11</s2></fA06><fA08 i1="01" i2="1" l="ENG"><s1>Global warming impacts and conservation responses for the critically endangered European Atlantic sturgeon</s1></fA08><fA11 i1="01" i2="1"><s1>LASSALLE (Géraldine)</s1></fA11><fA11 i1="02" i2="1"><s1>CROUZET (Philippe)</s1></fA11><fA11 i1="03" i2="1"><s1>GESSNER (Jörn)</s1></fA11><fA11 i1="04" i2="1"><s1>ROCHARD (Eric)</s1></fA11><fA14 i1="01"><s1>Cemagref, Agricultural and Environmental Engineering Research Institute, UR EPBX, 50 Avenue de Verdun</s1><s2>33612 Cestas</s2><s3>FRA</s3><sZ>1 aut.</sZ><sZ>4 aut.</sZ></fA14><fA14 i1="02"><s1>EEA, European Environment Agency, Kongens Nytorv 6</s1><s2>1050 Copenhagen</s2><s3>DNK</s3><sZ>2 aut.</sZ></fA14><fA14 i1="03"><s1>IGB, Leibniz-Institute of Freshwater Ecology and Inland Fisheries, Muggelseedamm 310</s1><s2>12587 Berlin</s2><s3>DEU</s3><sZ>3 aut.</sZ></fA14><fA20><s1>2441-2452</s1></fA20><fA21><s1>2010</s1></fA21><fA23 i1="01"><s0>ENG</s0></fA23><fA43 i1="01"><s1>INIST</s1><s2>14169</s2><s5>354000192482110040</s5></fA43><fA44><s0>0000</s0><s1>© 2010 INIST-CNRS. 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A predictive distribution model was established from this database using Boosted Regression Trees (BRT) and a pool of relevant environmental variables. Projections were performed at two time-steps, 2050 and 2100, using the HadCM3 Global Climate Model (GCM) and the A2 and A1F1 emissions scenarios. The BRT model incorporated two general climatic descriptors, summer precipitation and annual air temperature, average slope served as a topographic predictor, and marine provinces as a macroecological variable. The statistical model performance allowed projections with the predictive deviance being 29 ± 2.80 and the Area Under the Curve (AUC) being 0.86 ± 0.02. The results obtained are in accordance with the species thermal preferences and with its hydrological habitat requirements. Most of the former sturgeon distribution range was assessed as being strongly affected by climate change, especially basins along the southern limit of its range. 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i1="01"><s1>OTO</s1></fN44><fN82><s1>OTO</s1></fN82></pA></standard></inist><affiliations><list><country><li>Allemagne</li><li>Danemark</li><li>France</li></country><region><li>Aquitaine</li><li>Berlin</li><li>Hovedstaden</li><li>Nouvelle-Aquitaine</li></region><settlement><li>Berlin</li><li>Cestas</li><li>Copenhague</li></settlement></list><tree><country name="France"><region name="Nouvelle-Aquitaine"><name sortKey="Lassalle, Geraldine" sort="Lassalle, Geraldine" uniqKey="Lassalle G" first="Géraldine" last="Lassalle">Géraldine Lassalle</name></region><name sortKey="Rochard, Eric" sort="Rochard, Eric" uniqKey="Rochard E" first="Eric" last="Rochard">Eric Rochard</name></country><country name="Danemark"><region name="Hovedstaden"><name sortKey="Crouzet, Philippe" sort="Crouzet, Philippe" uniqKey="Crouzet P" first="Philippe" last="Crouzet">Philippe Crouzet</name></region></country><country name="Allemagne"><region name="Berlin"><name sortKey="Gessner, Jorn" sort="Gessner, Jorn" uniqKey="Gessner J" first="Jörn" last="Gessner">Jörn Gessner</name></region></country></tree></affiliations></record>Pour manipuler ce document sous Unix (Dilib)
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