Impact of twenty-first century climate change on diadromous fish spread over Europe, North Africa and the Middle East
Identifieur interne : 000A23 ( Main/Merge ); précédent : 000A22; suivant : 000A24Impact of twenty-first century climate change on diadromous fish spread over Europe, North Africa and the Middle East
Auteurs : G. Lassalle [France] ; E. Rochard [France]Source :
- Global change biology : (Print) [ 1354-1013 ] ; 2009.
Descripteurs français
- Pascal (Inist)
- Wicri :
- topic : Changement climatique.
English descriptors
- KwdEn :
Abstract
Climate change is expected to drive species ranges towards the poles and to have a strong influence on species distributions. In this study, we focused on diadromous species that are of economical and ecological importance in the whole of Europe. We investigated the potential distribution of all diadromous fish regularly encountered in Europe, North Africa and the Middle East (28 species) under conditions predicted for twenty-first century climate change. To do so, we investigated the 1900 distribution of each species in 196 basins spread across all of Europe, North Africa and the Middle East. Four levels were used to semiquantitatively describe the abundance of species, that is missing, rare, common and abundant. We then selected five variables describing the prevailing climate in the basins, the physical nature of the basins and reflecting historical events known to have affected freshwater fish distribution. Logistic regressions with a four-level ordinal response variable were used to develop species-specific models. These predictive models related the observed distribution of these species in 1900 to the most explanatory combination of variables. Finally, we selected the A2 SRES scenario and the HadCM3 (Hadley Centre Coupled Model version 3) global climate model (GCM) to obtain climate variables (temperature and precipitation) at the end of this century. We used these 2100 variables in our models and obtained maps of climatically suitable and unsuitable basins, percentages of contraction or expansion for each species. Twenty-two models were successfully built, that is there were five species for which no model could be established because their distribution range was too narrow and the Acipenser sturio model failed during calibration. All the models selected temperature or/and precipitation as explanatory variables. Responses to climate change were species-specific but could be classified into three categories: little or no change in the distribution (five species), expansion of the distribution range (three species gaining suitable basins mainly northward) and contraction of the distribution (14 species losing suitable basins). Shifting ranges were in accordance with those found in other studies and underlined the high sensitivity of diadromous fish to modifications in their environment.
Links toward previous steps (curation, corpus...)
- to stream PascalFrancis, to step Corpus: 000134
- to stream PascalFrancis, to step Curation: 000242
- to stream PascalFrancis, to step Checkpoint: 000126
Links to Exploration step
Pascal:09-0243141Le document en format XML
<record><TEI><teiHeader><fileDesc><titleStmt><title xml:lang="en" level="a">Impact of twenty-first century climate change on diadromous fish spread over Europe, North Africa and the Middle East</title>
<author><name sortKey="Lassalle, G" sort="Lassalle, G" uniqKey="Lassalle G" first="G." last="Lassalle">G. Lassalle</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="3"><inist:fA14 i1="01"><s1>Cemagref, UR EPBX, 50 avenue de Verdun</s1>
<s2>33612 Cestas</s2>
<s3>FRA</s3>
<sZ>1 aut.</sZ>
<sZ>2 aut.</sZ>
</inist:fA14>
<country>France</country>
<placeName><region type="region" nuts="2">Nouvelle-Aquitaine</region>
<region type="old region" nuts="2">Aquitaine</region>
<settlement type="city">Cestas</settlement>
</placeName>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Rochard, E" sort="Rochard, E" uniqKey="Rochard E" first="E." last="Rochard">E. Rochard</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="3"><inist:fA14 i1="01"><s1>Cemagref, UR EPBX, 50 avenue de Verdun</s1>
<s2>33612 Cestas</s2>
<s3>FRA</s3>
<sZ>1 aut.</sZ>
<sZ>2 aut.</sZ>
</inist:fA14>
<country>France</country>
<placeName><region type="region" nuts="2">Nouvelle-Aquitaine</region>
<region type="old region" nuts="2">Aquitaine</region>
<settlement type="city">Cestas</settlement>
</placeName>
</affiliation>
</author>
</titleStmt>
<publicationStmt><idno type="wicri:source">INIST</idno>
<idno type="inist">09-0243141</idno>
<date when="2009">2009</date>
<idno type="stanalyst">PASCAL 09-0243141 INIST</idno>
<idno type="RBID">Pascal:09-0243141</idno>
<idno type="wicri:Area/PascalFrancis/Corpus">000134</idno>
<idno type="wicri:Area/PascalFrancis/Curation">000242</idno>
<idno type="wicri:Area/PascalFrancis/Checkpoint">000126</idno>
<idno type="wicri:explorRef" wicri:stream="PascalFrancis" wicri:step="Checkpoint">000126</idno>
<idno type="wicri:doubleKey">1354-1013:2009:Lassalle G:impact:of:twenty</idno>
<idno type="wicri:Area/Main/Merge">000A23</idno>
</publicationStmt>
<sourceDesc><biblStruct><analytic><title xml:lang="en" level="a">Impact of twenty-first century climate change on diadromous fish spread over Europe, North Africa and the Middle East</title>
<author><name sortKey="Lassalle, G" sort="Lassalle, G" uniqKey="Lassalle G" first="G." last="Lassalle">G. Lassalle</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="3"><inist:fA14 i1="01"><s1>Cemagref, UR EPBX, 50 avenue de Verdun</s1>
<s2>33612 Cestas</s2>
<s3>FRA</s3>
<sZ>1 aut.</sZ>
<sZ>2 aut.</sZ>
</inist:fA14>
<country>France</country>
<placeName><region type="region" nuts="2">Nouvelle-Aquitaine</region>
<region type="old region" nuts="2">Aquitaine</region>
<settlement type="city">Cestas</settlement>
</placeName>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Rochard, E" sort="Rochard, E" uniqKey="Rochard E" first="E." last="Rochard">E. Rochard</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="3"><inist:fA14 i1="01"><s1>Cemagref, UR EPBX, 50 avenue de Verdun</s1>
<s2>33612 Cestas</s2>
<s3>FRA</s3>
<sZ>1 aut.</sZ>
<sZ>2 aut.</sZ>
</inist:fA14>
<country>France</country>
<placeName><region type="region" nuts="2">Nouvelle-Aquitaine</region>
<region type="old region" nuts="2">Aquitaine</region>
<settlement type="city">Cestas</settlement>
</placeName>
</affiliation>
</author>
</analytic>
<series><title level="j" type="main">Global change biology : (Print)</title>
<title level="j" type="abbreviated">Glob. chang. biol. : (Print)</title>
<idno type="ISSN">1354-1013</idno>
<imprint><date when="2009">2009</date>
</imprint>
</series>
</biblStruct>
</sourceDesc>
<seriesStmt><title level="j" type="main">Global change biology : (Print)</title>
<title level="j" type="abbreviated">Glob. chang. biol. : (Print)</title>
<idno type="ISSN">1354-1013</idno>
</seriesStmt>
</fileDesc>
<profileDesc><textClass><keywords scheme="KwdEn" xml:lang="en"><term>Climate change</term>
<term>Diadromous</term>
<term>Ecological abundance</term>
<term>Europe</term>
<term>Logistic model</term>
<term>Logistic regression</term>
<term>Middle east</term>
<term>North Africa</term>
<term>Pisces</term>
<term>Regression model</term>
</keywords>
<keywords scheme="Pascal" xml:lang="fr"><term>Changement climatique</term>
<term>Pisces</term>
<term>Europe</term>
<term>Afrique du Nord</term>
<term>Moyen Orient</term>
<term>Abondance écologique</term>
<term>Modèle logistique</term>
<term>Régression logistique</term>
<term>Modèle régression</term>
<term>Diadrome</term>
</keywords>
<keywords scheme="Wicri" type="topic" xml:lang="fr"><term>Changement climatique</term>
</keywords>
</textClass>
</profileDesc>
</teiHeader>
<front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en">Climate change is expected to drive species ranges towards the poles and to have a strong influence on species distributions. In this study, we focused on diadromous species that are of economical and ecological importance in the whole of Europe. We investigated the potential distribution of all diadromous fish regularly encountered in Europe, North Africa and the Middle East (28 species) under conditions predicted for twenty-first century climate change. To do so, we investigated the 1900 distribution of each species in 196 basins spread across all of Europe, North Africa and the Middle East. Four levels were used to semiquantitatively describe the abundance of species, that is missing, rare, common and abundant. We then selected five variables describing the prevailing climate in the basins, the physical nature of the basins and reflecting historical events known to have affected freshwater fish distribution. Logistic regressions with a four-level ordinal response variable were used to develop species-specific models. These predictive models related the observed distribution of these species in 1900 to the most explanatory combination of variables. Finally, we selected the A2 SRES scenario and the HadCM3 (Hadley Centre Coupled Model version 3) global climate model (GCM) to obtain climate variables (temperature and precipitation) at the end of this century. We used these 2100 variables in our models and obtained maps of climatically suitable and unsuitable basins, percentages of contraction or expansion for each species. Twenty-two models were successfully built, that is there were five species for which no model could be established because their distribution range was too narrow and the Acipenser sturio model failed during calibration. All the models selected temperature or/and precipitation as explanatory variables. Responses to climate change were species-specific but could be classified into three categories: little or no change in the distribution (five species), expansion of the distribution range (three species gaining suitable basins mainly northward) and contraction of the distribution (14 species losing suitable basins). Shifting ranges were in accordance with those found in other studies and underlined the high sensitivity of diadromous fish to modifications in their environment.</div>
</front>
</TEI>
<affiliations><list><country><li>France</li>
</country>
<region><li>Aquitaine</li>
<li>Nouvelle-Aquitaine</li>
</region>
<settlement><li>Cestas</li>
</settlement>
</list>
<tree><country name="France"><region name="Nouvelle-Aquitaine"><name sortKey="Lassalle, G" sort="Lassalle, G" uniqKey="Lassalle G" first="G." last="Lassalle">G. Lassalle</name>
</region>
<name sortKey="Rochard, E" sort="Rochard, E" uniqKey="Rochard E" first="E." last="Rochard">E. Rochard</name>
</country>
</tree>
</affiliations>
</record>
Pour manipuler ce document sous Unix (Dilib)
EXPLOR_STEP=$WICRI_ROOT/Wicri/Eau/explor/EsturgeonV1/Data/Main/Merge
HfdSelect -h $EXPLOR_STEP/biblio.hfd -nk 000A23 | SxmlIndent | more
Ou
HfdSelect -h $EXPLOR_AREA/Data/Main/Merge/biblio.hfd -nk 000A23 | SxmlIndent | more
Pour mettre un lien sur cette page dans le réseau Wicri
{{Explor lien |wiki= Wicri/Eau |area= EsturgeonV1 |flux= Main |étape= Merge |type= RBID |clé= Pascal:09-0243141 |texte= Impact of twenty-first century climate change on diadromous fish spread over Europe, North Africa and the Middle East }}
![]() | This area was generated with Dilib version V0.6.27. | ![]() |