Impact of twenty-first century climate change on diadromous fish spread over Europe, North Africa and the Middle East
Identifieur interne : 000134 ( PascalFrancis/Corpus ); précédent : 000133; suivant : 000135Impact of twenty-first century climate change on diadromous fish spread over Europe, North Africa and the Middle East
Auteurs : G. Lassalle ; E. RochardSource :
- Global change biology : (Print) [ 1354-1013 ] ; 2009.
Descripteurs français
- Pascal (Inist)
English descriptors
- KwdEn :
Abstract
Climate change is expected to drive species ranges towards the poles and to have a strong influence on species distributions. In this study, we focused on diadromous species that are of economical and ecological importance in the whole of Europe. We investigated the potential distribution of all diadromous fish regularly encountered in Europe, North Africa and the Middle East (28 species) under conditions predicted for twenty-first century climate change. To do so, we investigated the 1900 distribution of each species in 196 basins spread across all of Europe, North Africa and the Middle East. Four levels were used to semiquantitatively describe the abundance of species, that is missing, rare, common and abundant. We then selected five variables describing the prevailing climate in the basins, the physical nature of the basins and reflecting historical events known to have affected freshwater fish distribution. Logistic regressions with a four-level ordinal response variable were used to develop species-specific models. These predictive models related the observed distribution of these species in 1900 to the most explanatory combination of variables. Finally, we selected the A2 SRES scenario and the HadCM3 (Hadley Centre Coupled Model version 3) global climate model (GCM) to obtain climate variables (temperature and precipitation) at the end of this century. We used these 2100 variables in our models and obtained maps of climatically suitable and unsuitable basins, percentages of contraction or expansion for each species. Twenty-two models were successfully built, that is there were five species for which no model could be established because their distribution range was too narrow and the Acipenser sturio model failed during calibration. All the models selected temperature or/and precipitation as explanatory variables. Responses to climate change were species-specific but could be classified into three categories: little or no change in the distribution (five species), expansion of the distribution range (three species gaining suitable basins mainly northward) and contraction of the distribution (14 species losing suitable basins). Shifting ranges were in accordance with those found in other studies and underlined the high sensitivity of diadromous fish to modifications in their environment.
Notice en format standard (ISO 2709)
Pour connaître la documentation sur le format Inist Standard.
pA |
|
---|
Format Inist (serveur)
NO : | PASCAL 09-0243141 INIST |
---|---|
ET : | Impact of twenty-first century climate change on diadromous fish spread over Europe, North Africa and the Middle East |
AU : | LASSALLE (G.); ROCHARD (E.) |
AF : | Cemagref, UR EPBX, 50 avenue de Verdun/33612 Cestas/France (1 aut., 2 aut.) |
DT : | Publication en série; Niveau analytique |
SO : | Global change biology : (Print); ISSN 1354-1013; Royaume-Uni; Da. 2009; Vol. 15; No. 5; Pp. 1072-1089; Bibl. 2 p.1/2 |
LA : | Anglais |
EA : | Climate change is expected to drive species ranges towards the poles and to have a strong influence on species distributions. In this study, we focused on diadromous species that are of economical and ecological importance in the whole of Europe. We investigated the potential distribution of all diadromous fish regularly encountered in Europe, North Africa and the Middle East (28 species) under conditions predicted for twenty-first century climate change. To do so, we investigated the 1900 distribution of each species in 196 basins spread across all of Europe, North Africa and the Middle East. Four levels were used to semiquantitatively describe the abundance of species, that is missing, rare, common and abundant. We then selected five variables describing the prevailing climate in the basins, the physical nature of the basins and reflecting historical events known to have affected freshwater fish distribution. Logistic regressions with a four-level ordinal response variable were used to develop species-specific models. These predictive models related the observed distribution of these species in 1900 to the most explanatory combination of variables. Finally, we selected the A2 SRES scenario and the HadCM3 (Hadley Centre Coupled Model version 3) global climate model (GCM) to obtain climate variables (temperature and precipitation) at the end of this century. We used these 2100 variables in our models and obtained maps of climatically suitable and unsuitable basins, percentages of contraction or expansion for each species. Twenty-two models were successfully built, that is there were five species for which no model could be established because their distribution range was too narrow and the Acipenser sturio model failed during calibration. All the models selected temperature or/and precipitation as explanatory variables. Responses to climate change were species-specific but could be classified into three categories: little or no change in the distribution (five species), expansion of the distribution range (three species gaining suitable basins mainly northward) and contraction of the distribution (14 species losing suitable basins). Shifting ranges were in accordance with those found in other studies and underlined the high sensitivity of diadromous fish to modifications in their environment. |
CC : | 002A14B02C2A; 001E02D10 |
FD : | Changement climatique; Pisces; Europe; Afrique du Nord; Moyen Orient; Abondance écologique; Modèle logistique; Régression logistique; Modèle régression; Diadrome |
FG : | Climatologie dynamique; Vertebrata; Afrique; Asie; Changement global |
ED : | Climate change; Pisces; Europe; North Africa; Middle east; Ecological abundance; Logistic model; Logistic regression; Regression model; Diadromous |
EG : | Dynamical climatology; Vertebrata; Africa; Asia; Global change |
SD : | Cambio climático; Pisces; Europa; Africa del norte; Oriente Medio; Abundancia ecológica; Modelo logístico; Regresión logística; Modelo regresión |
LO : | INIST-27882.354000185993660020 |
ID : | 09-0243141 |
Links to Exploration step
Pascal:09-0243141Le document en format XML
<record><TEI><teiHeader><fileDesc><titleStmt><title xml:lang="en" level="a">Impact of twenty-first century climate change on diadromous fish spread over Europe, North Africa and the Middle East</title>
<author><name sortKey="Lassalle, G" sort="Lassalle, G" uniqKey="Lassalle G" first="G." last="Lassalle">G. Lassalle</name>
<affiliation><inist:fA14 i1="01"><s1>Cemagref, UR EPBX, 50 avenue de Verdun</s1>
<s2>33612 Cestas</s2>
<s3>FRA</s3>
<sZ>1 aut.</sZ>
<sZ>2 aut.</sZ>
</inist:fA14>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Rochard, E" sort="Rochard, E" uniqKey="Rochard E" first="E." last="Rochard">E. Rochard</name>
<affiliation><inist:fA14 i1="01"><s1>Cemagref, UR EPBX, 50 avenue de Verdun</s1>
<s2>33612 Cestas</s2>
<s3>FRA</s3>
<sZ>1 aut.</sZ>
<sZ>2 aut.</sZ>
</inist:fA14>
</affiliation>
</author>
</titleStmt>
<publicationStmt><idno type="wicri:source">INIST</idno>
<idno type="inist">09-0243141</idno>
<date when="2009">2009</date>
<idno type="stanalyst">PASCAL 09-0243141 INIST</idno>
<idno type="RBID">Pascal:09-0243141</idno>
<idno type="wicri:Area/PascalFrancis/Corpus">000134</idno>
</publicationStmt>
<sourceDesc><biblStruct><analytic><title xml:lang="en" level="a">Impact of twenty-first century climate change on diadromous fish spread over Europe, North Africa and the Middle East</title>
<author><name sortKey="Lassalle, G" sort="Lassalle, G" uniqKey="Lassalle G" first="G." last="Lassalle">G. Lassalle</name>
<affiliation><inist:fA14 i1="01"><s1>Cemagref, UR EPBX, 50 avenue de Verdun</s1>
<s2>33612 Cestas</s2>
<s3>FRA</s3>
<sZ>1 aut.</sZ>
<sZ>2 aut.</sZ>
</inist:fA14>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Rochard, E" sort="Rochard, E" uniqKey="Rochard E" first="E." last="Rochard">E. Rochard</name>
<affiliation><inist:fA14 i1="01"><s1>Cemagref, UR EPBX, 50 avenue de Verdun</s1>
<s2>33612 Cestas</s2>
<s3>FRA</s3>
<sZ>1 aut.</sZ>
<sZ>2 aut.</sZ>
</inist:fA14>
</affiliation>
</author>
</analytic>
<series><title level="j" type="main">Global change biology : (Print)</title>
<title level="j" type="abbreviated">Glob. chang. biol. : (Print)</title>
<idno type="ISSN">1354-1013</idno>
<imprint><date when="2009">2009</date>
</imprint>
</series>
</biblStruct>
</sourceDesc>
<seriesStmt><title level="j" type="main">Global change biology : (Print)</title>
<title level="j" type="abbreviated">Glob. chang. biol. : (Print)</title>
<idno type="ISSN">1354-1013</idno>
</seriesStmt>
</fileDesc>
<profileDesc><textClass><keywords scheme="KwdEn" xml:lang="en"><term>Climate change</term>
<term>Diadromous</term>
<term>Ecological abundance</term>
<term>Europe</term>
<term>Logistic model</term>
<term>Logistic regression</term>
<term>Middle east</term>
<term>North Africa</term>
<term>Pisces</term>
<term>Regression model</term>
</keywords>
<keywords scheme="Pascal" xml:lang="fr"><term>Changement climatique</term>
<term>Pisces</term>
<term>Europe</term>
<term>Afrique du Nord</term>
<term>Moyen Orient</term>
<term>Abondance écologique</term>
<term>Modèle logistique</term>
<term>Régression logistique</term>
<term>Modèle régression</term>
<term>Diadrome</term>
</keywords>
</textClass>
</profileDesc>
</teiHeader>
<front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en">Climate change is expected to drive species ranges towards the poles and to have a strong influence on species distributions. In this study, we focused on diadromous species that are of economical and ecological importance in the whole of Europe. We investigated the potential distribution of all diadromous fish regularly encountered in Europe, North Africa and the Middle East (28 species) under conditions predicted for twenty-first century climate change. To do so, we investigated the 1900 distribution of each species in 196 basins spread across all of Europe, North Africa and the Middle East. Four levels were used to semiquantitatively describe the abundance of species, that is missing, rare, common and abundant. We then selected five variables describing the prevailing climate in the basins, the physical nature of the basins and reflecting historical events known to have affected freshwater fish distribution. Logistic regressions with a four-level ordinal response variable were used to develop species-specific models. These predictive models related the observed distribution of these species in 1900 to the most explanatory combination of variables. Finally, we selected the A2 SRES scenario and the HadCM3 (Hadley Centre Coupled Model version 3) global climate model (GCM) to obtain climate variables (temperature and precipitation) at the end of this century. We used these 2100 variables in our models and obtained maps of climatically suitable and unsuitable basins, percentages of contraction or expansion for each species. Twenty-two models were successfully built, that is there were five species for which no model could be established because their distribution range was too narrow and the Acipenser sturio model failed during calibration. All the models selected temperature or/and precipitation as explanatory variables. Responses to climate change were species-specific but could be classified into three categories: little or no change in the distribution (five species), expansion of the distribution range (three species gaining suitable basins mainly northward) and contraction of the distribution (14 species losing suitable basins). Shifting ranges were in accordance with those found in other studies and underlined the high sensitivity of diadromous fish to modifications in their environment.</div>
</front>
</TEI>
<inist><standard h6="B"><pA><fA01 i1="01" i2="1"><s0>1354-1013</s0>
</fA01>
<fA03 i2="1"><s0>Glob. chang. biol. : (Print)</s0>
</fA03>
<fA05><s2>15</s2>
</fA05>
<fA06><s2>5</s2>
</fA06>
<fA08 i1="01" i2="1" l="ENG"><s1>Impact of twenty-first century climate change on diadromous fish spread over Europe, North Africa and the Middle East</s1>
</fA08>
<fA11 i1="01" i2="1"><s1>LASSALLE (G.)</s1>
</fA11>
<fA11 i1="02" i2="1"><s1>ROCHARD (E.)</s1>
</fA11>
<fA14 i1="01"><s1>Cemagref, UR EPBX, 50 avenue de Verdun</s1>
<s2>33612 Cestas</s2>
<s3>FRA</s3>
<sZ>1 aut.</sZ>
<sZ>2 aut.</sZ>
</fA14>
<fA20><s1>1072-1089</s1>
</fA20>
<fA21><s1>2009</s1>
</fA21>
<fA23 i1="01"><s0>ENG</s0>
</fA23>
<fA43 i1="01"><s1>INIST</s1>
<s2>27882</s2>
<s5>354000185993660020</s5>
</fA43>
<fA44><s0>0000</s0>
<s1>© 2009 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.</s1>
</fA44>
<fA45><s0>2 p.1/2</s0>
</fA45>
<fA47 i1="01" i2="1"><s0>09-0243141</s0>
</fA47>
<fA60><s1>P</s1>
</fA60>
<fA61><s0>A</s0>
</fA61>
<fA64 i1="01" i2="1"><s0>Global change biology : (Print)</s0>
</fA64>
<fA66 i1="01"><s0>GBR</s0>
</fA66>
<fC01 i1="01" l="ENG"><s0>Climate change is expected to drive species ranges towards the poles and to have a strong influence on species distributions. In this study, we focused on diadromous species that are of economical and ecological importance in the whole of Europe. We investigated the potential distribution of all diadromous fish regularly encountered in Europe, North Africa and the Middle East (28 species) under conditions predicted for twenty-first century climate change. To do so, we investigated the 1900 distribution of each species in 196 basins spread across all of Europe, North Africa and the Middle East. Four levels were used to semiquantitatively describe the abundance of species, that is missing, rare, common and abundant. We then selected five variables describing the prevailing climate in the basins, the physical nature of the basins and reflecting historical events known to have affected freshwater fish distribution. Logistic regressions with a four-level ordinal response variable were used to develop species-specific models. These predictive models related the observed distribution of these species in 1900 to the most explanatory combination of variables. Finally, we selected the A2 SRES scenario and the HadCM3 (Hadley Centre Coupled Model version 3) global climate model (GCM) to obtain climate variables (temperature and precipitation) at the end of this century. We used these 2100 variables in our models and obtained maps of climatically suitable and unsuitable basins, percentages of contraction or expansion for each species. Twenty-two models were successfully built, that is there were five species for which no model could be established because their distribution range was too narrow and the Acipenser sturio model failed during calibration. All the models selected temperature or/and precipitation as explanatory variables. Responses to climate change were species-specific but could be classified into three categories: little or no change in the distribution (five species), expansion of the distribution range (three species gaining suitable basins mainly northward) and contraction of the distribution (14 species losing suitable basins). Shifting ranges were in accordance with those found in other studies and underlined the high sensitivity of diadromous fish to modifications in their environment.</s0>
</fC01>
<fC02 i1="01" i2="X"><s0>002A14B02C2A</s0>
</fC02>
<fC02 i1="02" i2="2"><s0>001E02D10</s0>
</fC02>
<fC03 i1="01" i2="X" l="FRE"><s0>Changement climatique</s0>
<s5>01</s5>
</fC03>
<fC03 i1="01" i2="X" l="ENG"><s0>Climate change</s0>
<s5>01</s5>
</fC03>
<fC03 i1="01" i2="X" l="SPA"><s0>Cambio climático</s0>
<s5>01</s5>
</fC03>
<fC03 i1="02" i2="X" l="FRE"><s0>Pisces</s0>
<s2>NS</s2>
<s5>02</s5>
</fC03>
<fC03 i1="02" i2="X" l="ENG"><s0>Pisces</s0>
<s2>NS</s2>
<s5>02</s5>
</fC03>
<fC03 i1="02" i2="X" l="SPA"><s0>Pisces</s0>
<s2>NS</s2>
<s5>02</s5>
</fC03>
<fC03 i1="03" i2="X" l="FRE"><s0>Europe</s0>
<s2>NG</s2>
<s5>03</s5>
</fC03>
<fC03 i1="03" i2="X" l="ENG"><s0>Europe</s0>
<s2>NG</s2>
<s5>03</s5>
</fC03>
<fC03 i1="03" i2="X" l="SPA"><s0>Europa</s0>
<s2>NG</s2>
<s5>03</s5>
</fC03>
<fC03 i1="04" i2="X" l="FRE"><s0>Afrique du Nord</s0>
<s2>NG</s2>
<s5>04</s5>
</fC03>
<fC03 i1="04" i2="X" l="ENG"><s0>North Africa</s0>
<s2>NG</s2>
<s5>04</s5>
</fC03>
<fC03 i1="04" i2="X" l="SPA"><s0>Africa del norte</s0>
<s2>NG</s2>
<s5>04</s5>
</fC03>
<fC03 i1="05" i2="X" l="FRE"><s0>Moyen Orient</s0>
<s2>NG</s2>
<s5>05</s5>
</fC03>
<fC03 i1="05" i2="X" l="ENG"><s0>Middle east</s0>
<s2>NG</s2>
<s5>05</s5>
</fC03>
<fC03 i1="05" i2="X" l="SPA"><s0>Oriente Medio</s0>
<s2>NG</s2>
<s5>05</s5>
</fC03>
<fC03 i1="06" i2="X" l="FRE"><s0>Abondance écologique</s0>
<s5>06</s5>
</fC03>
<fC03 i1="06" i2="X" l="ENG"><s0>Ecological abundance</s0>
<s5>06</s5>
</fC03>
<fC03 i1="06" i2="X" l="SPA"><s0>Abundancia ecológica</s0>
<s5>06</s5>
</fC03>
<fC03 i1="07" i2="X" l="FRE"><s0>Modèle logistique</s0>
<s5>07</s5>
</fC03>
<fC03 i1="07" i2="X" l="ENG"><s0>Logistic model</s0>
<s5>07</s5>
</fC03>
<fC03 i1="07" i2="X" l="SPA"><s0>Modelo logístico</s0>
<s5>07</s5>
</fC03>
<fC03 i1="08" i2="X" l="FRE"><s0>Régression logistique</s0>
<s5>08</s5>
</fC03>
<fC03 i1="08" i2="X" l="ENG"><s0>Logistic regression</s0>
<s5>08</s5>
</fC03>
<fC03 i1="08" i2="X" l="SPA"><s0>Regresión logística</s0>
<s5>08</s5>
</fC03>
<fC03 i1="09" i2="X" l="FRE"><s0>Modèle régression</s0>
<s5>09</s5>
</fC03>
<fC03 i1="09" i2="X" l="ENG"><s0>Regression model</s0>
<s5>09</s5>
</fC03>
<fC03 i1="09" i2="X" l="SPA"><s0>Modelo regresión</s0>
<s5>09</s5>
</fC03>
<fC03 i1="10" i2="X" l="FRE"><s0>Diadrome</s0>
<s4>CD</s4>
<s5>96</s5>
</fC03>
<fC03 i1="10" i2="X" l="ENG"><s0>Diadromous</s0>
<s4>CD</s4>
<s5>96</s5>
</fC03>
<fC07 i1="01" i2="X" l="FRE"><s0>Climatologie dynamique</s0>
</fC07>
<fC07 i1="01" i2="X" l="ENG"><s0>Dynamical climatology</s0>
</fC07>
<fC07 i1="01" i2="X" l="SPA"><s0>Climatología dinámica</s0>
</fC07>
<fC07 i1="02" i2="X" l="FRE"><s0>Vertebrata</s0>
<s2>NS</s2>
</fC07>
<fC07 i1="02" i2="X" l="ENG"><s0>Vertebrata</s0>
<s2>NS</s2>
</fC07>
<fC07 i1="02" i2="X" l="SPA"><s0>Vertebrata</s0>
<s2>NS</s2>
</fC07>
<fC07 i1="03" i2="X" l="FRE"><s0>Afrique</s0>
<s2>NG</s2>
</fC07>
<fC07 i1="03" i2="X" l="ENG"><s0>Africa</s0>
<s2>NG</s2>
</fC07>
<fC07 i1="03" i2="X" l="SPA"><s0>Africa</s0>
<s2>NG</s2>
</fC07>
<fC07 i1="04" i2="X" l="FRE"><s0>Asie</s0>
<s2>NG</s2>
</fC07>
<fC07 i1="04" i2="X" l="ENG"><s0>Asia</s0>
<s2>NG</s2>
</fC07>
<fC07 i1="04" i2="X" l="SPA"><s0>Asia</s0>
<s2>NG</s2>
</fC07>
<fC07 i1="05" i2="X" l="FRE"><s0>Changement global</s0>
<s5>17</s5>
</fC07>
<fC07 i1="05" i2="X" l="ENG"><s0>Global change</s0>
<s5>17</s5>
</fC07>
<fC07 i1="05" i2="X" l="SPA"><s0>Cambio global</s0>
<s5>17</s5>
</fC07>
<fN21><s1>182</s1>
</fN21>
</pA>
</standard>
<server><NO>PASCAL 09-0243141 INIST</NO>
<ET>Impact of twenty-first century climate change on diadromous fish spread over Europe, North Africa and the Middle East</ET>
<AU>LASSALLE (G.); ROCHARD (E.)</AU>
<AF>Cemagref, UR EPBX, 50 avenue de Verdun/33612 Cestas/France (1 aut., 2 aut.)</AF>
<DT>Publication en série; Niveau analytique</DT>
<SO>Global change biology : (Print); ISSN 1354-1013; Royaume-Uni; Da. 2009; Vol. 15; No. 5; Pp. 1072-1089; Bibl. 2 p.1/2</SO>
<LA>Anglais</LA>
<EA>Climate change is expected to drive species ranges towards the poles and to have a strong influence on species distributions. In this study, we focused on diadromous species that are of economical and ecological importance in the whole of Europe. We investigated the potential distribution of all diadromous fish regularly encountered in Europe, North Africa and the Middle East (28 species) under conditions predicted for twenty-first century climate change. To do so, we investigated the 1900 distribution of each species in 196 basins spread across all of Europe, North Africa and the Middle East. Four levels were used to semiquantitatively describe the abundance of species, that is missing, rare, common and abundant. We then selected five variables describing the prevailing climate in the basins, the physical nature of the basins and reflecting historical events known to have affected freshwater fish distribution. Logistic regressions with a four-level ordinal response variable were used to develop species-specific models. These predictive models related the observed distribution of these species in 1900 to the most explanatory combination of variables. Finally, we selected the A2 SRES scenario and the HadCM3 (Hadley Centre Coupled Model version 3) global climate model (GCM) to obtain climate variables (temperature and precipitation) at the end of this century. We used these 2100 variables in our models and obtained maps of climatically suitable and unsuitable basins, percentages of contraction or expansion for each species. Twenty-two models were successfully built, that is there were five species for which no model could be established because their distribution range was too narrow and the Acipenser sturio model failed during calibration. All the models selected temperature or/and precipitation as explanatory variables. Responses to climate change were species-specific but could be classified into three categories: little or no change in the distribution (five species), expansion of the distribution range (three species gaining suitable basins mainly northward) and contraction of the distribution (14 species losing suitable basins). Shifting ranges were in accordance with those found in other studies and underlined the high sensitivity of diadromous fish to modifications in their environment.</EA>
<CC>002A14B02C2A; 001E02D10</CC>
<FD>Changement climatique; Pisces; Europe; Afrique du Nord; Moyen Orient; Abondance écologique; Modèle logistique; Régression logistique; Modèle régression; Diadrome</FD>
<FG>Climatologie dynamique; Vertebrata; Afrique; Asie; Changement global</FG>
<ED>Climate change; Pisces; Europe; North Africa; Middle east; Ecological abundance; Logistic model; Logistic regression; Regression model; Diadromous</ED>
<EG>Dynamical climatology; Vertebrata; Africa; Asia; Global change</EG>
<SD>Cambio climático; Pisces; Europa; Africa del norte; Oriente Medio; Abundancia ecológica; Modelo logístico; Regresión logística; Modelo regresión</SD>
<LO>INIST-27882.354000185993660020</LO>
<ID>09-0243141</ID>
</server>
</inist>
</record>
Pour manipuler ce document sous Unix (Dilib)
EXPLOR_STEP=$WICRI_ROOT/Wicri/Eau/explor/EsturgeonV1/Data/PascalFrancis/Corpus
HfdSelect -h $EXPLOR_STEP/biblio.hfd -nk 000134 | SxmlIndent | more
Ou
HfdSelect -h $EXPLOR_AREA/Data/PascalFrancis/Corpus/biblio.hfd -nk 000134 | SxmlIndent | more
Pour mettre un lien sur cette page dans le réseau Wicri
{{Explor lien |wiki= Wicri/Eau |area= EsturgeonV1 |flux= PascalFrancis |étape= Corpus |type= RBID |clé= Pascal:09-0243141 |texte= Impact of twenty-first century climate change on diadromous fish spread over Europe, North Africa and the Middle East }}
![]() | This area was generated with Dilib version V0.6.27. | ![]() |