Impact of twenty‐first century climate change on diadromous fish spread over Europe, North Africa and the Middle East
Identifieur interne : 001368 ( Istex/Corpus ); précédent : 001367; suivant : 001369Impact of twenty‐first century climate change on diadromous fish spread over Europe, North Africa and the Middle East
Auteurs : G. Lassalle ; E. RochardSource :
- Global Change Biology [ 1354-1013 ] ; 2009-05.
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Abstract
Climate change is expected to drive species ranges towards the poles and to have a strong influence on species distributions. In this study, we focused on diadromous species that are of economical and ecological importance in the whole of Europe. We investigated the potential distribution of all diadromous fish regularly encountered in Europe, North Africa and the Middle East (28 species) under conditions predicted for twenty‐first century climate change. To do so, we investigated the 1900 distribution of each species in 196 basins spread across all of Europe, North Africa and the Middle East. Four levels were used to semiquantitatively describe the abundance of species, that is missing, rare, common and abundant. We then selected five variables describing the prevailing climate in the basins, the physical nature of the basins and reflecting historical events known to have affected freshwater fish distribution. Logistic regressions with a four‐level ordinal response variable were used to develop species‐specific models. These predictive models related the observed distribution of these species in 1900 to the most explanatory combination of variables. Finally, we selected the A2 SRES scenario and the HadCM3 (Hadley Centre Coupled Model version 3) global climate model (GCM) to obtain climate variables (temperature and precipitation) at the end of this century. We used these 2100 variables in our models and obtained maps of climatically suitable and unsuitable basins, percentages of contraction or expansion for each species. Twenty‐two models were successfully built, that is there were five species for which no model could be established because their distribution range was too narrow and the Acipenser sturio model failed during calibration. All the models selected temperature or/and precipitation as explanatory variables. Responses to climate change were species‐specific but could be classified into three categories: little or no change in the distribution (five species), expansion of the distribution range (three species gaining suitable basins mainly northward) and contraction of the distribution (14 species losing suitable basins). Shifting ranges were in accordance with those found in other studies and underlined the high sensitivity of diadromous fish to modifications in their environment.
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DOI: 10.1111/j.1365-2486.2008.01794.x
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In this study, we focused on diadromous species that are of economical and ecological importance in the whole of Europe. We investigated the potential distribution of all diadromous fish regularly encountered in Europe, North Africa and the Middle East (28 species) under conditions predicted for twenty‐first century climate change. To do so, we investigated the 1900 distribution of each species in 196 basins spread across all of Europe, North Africa and the Middle East. Four levels were used to semiquantitatively describe the abundance of species, that is missing, rare, common and abundant. We then selected five variables describing the prevailing climate in the basins, the physical nature of the basins and reflecting historical events known to have affected freshwater fish distribution. Logistic regressions with a four‐level ordinal response variable were used to develop species‐specific models. These predictive models related the observed distribution of these species in 1900 to the most explanatory combination of variables. Finally, we selected the A2 SRES scenario and the HadCM3 (Hadley Centre Coupled Model version 3) global climate model (GCM) to obtain climate variables (temperature and precipitation) at the end of this century. We used these 2100 variables in our models and obtained maps of climatically suitable and unsuitable basins, percentages of contraction or expansion for each species. Twenty‐two models were successfully built, that is there were five species for which no model could be established because their distribution range was too narrow and the Acipenser sturio model failed during calibration. All the models selected temperature or/and precipitation as explanatory variables. Responses to climate change were species‐specific but could be classified into three categories: little or no change in the distribution (five species), expansion of the distribution range (three species gaining suitable basins mainly northward) and contraction of the distribution (14 species losing suitable basins). Shifting ranges were in accordance with those found in other studies and underlined the high sensitivity of diadromous fish to modifications in their environment.</div></front></TEI><istex><corpusName>wiley</corpusName><author><json:item><name>G. LASSALLE</name><affiliations><json:string>Cemagref, UR EPBX, 50 avenue de Verdun, F‐33612 Cestas, Cedex, France</json:string></affiliations></json:item><json:item><name>E. 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Responses to climate change were species‐specific but could be classified into three categories: little or no change in the distribution (five species), expansion of the distribution range (three species gaining suitable basins mainly northward) and contraction of the distribution (14 species losing suitable basins). 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Journal compilation © 2009 Blackwell Publishing Ltd</p></availability><date>2009</date></publicationStmt><sourceDesc><biblStruct type="inbook"><analytic><title level="a" type="main" xml:lang="en">Impact of twenty‐first century climate change on diadromous fish spread over Europe, North Africa and the Middle East</title><author xml:id="author-1"><persName><forename type="first">G.</forename><surname>LASSALLE</surname></persName><affiliation>Cemagref, UR EPBX, 50 avenue de Verdun, F‐33612 Cestas, Cedex, France</affiliation></author><author xml:id="author-2"><persName><forename type="first">E.</forename><surname>ROCHARD</surname></persName><affiliation>Cemagref, UR EPBX, 50 avenue de Verdun, F‐33612 Cestas, Cedex, France</affiliation></author></analytic><monogr><title level="j">Global Change Biology</title><idno type="pISSN">1354-1013</idno><idno type="eISSN">1365-2486</idno><idno type="DOI">10.1111/(ISSN)1365-2486</idno><imprint><publisher>Blackwell Publishing Ltd</publisher><pubPlace>Oxford, UK</pubPlace><date type="published" when="2009-05"></date><biblScope unit="volume">15</biblScope><biblScope unit="issue">5</biblScope><biblScope unit="page" from="1072">1072</biblScope><biblScope unit="page" to="1089">1089</biblScope></imprint></monogr><idno type="istex">03EE5CB7212F71749511A4A3E987EF896B3EE43F</idno><idno type="DOI">10.1111/j.1365-2486.2008.01794.x</idno><idno type="ArticleID">GCB1794</idno></biblStruct></sourceDesc></fileDesc><profileDesc><creation><date>2009</date></creation><langUsage><language ident="en">en</language></langUsage><abstract xml:lang="en"><p>Climate change is expected to drive species ranges towards the poles and to have a strong influence on species distributions. In this study, we focused on diadromous species that are of economical and ecological importance in the whole of Europe. We investigated the potential distribution of all diadromous fish regularly encountered in Europe, North Africa and the Middle East (28 species) under conditions predicted for twenty‐first century climate change. To do so, we investigated the 1900 distribution of each species in 196 basins spread across all of Europe, North Africa and the Middle East. Four levels were used to semiquantitatively describe the abundance of species, that is missing, rare, common and abundant. We then selected five variables describing the prevailing climate in the basins, the physical nature of the basins and reflecting historical events known to have affected freshwater fish distribution. Logistic regressions with a four‐level ordinal response variable were used to develop species‐specific models. These predictive models related the observed distribution of these species in 1900 to the most explanatory combination of variables. Finally, we selected the A2 SRES scenario and the HadCM3 (Hadley Centre Coupled Model version 3) global climate model (GCM) to obtain climate variables (temperature and precipitation) at the end of this century. We used these 2100 variables in our models and obtained maps of climatically suitable and unsuitable basins, percentages of contraction or expansion for each species. Twenty‐two models were successfully built, that is there were five species for which no model could be established because their distribution range was too narrow and the Acipenser sturio model failed during calibration. All the models selected temperature or/and precipitation as explanatory variables. Responses to climate change were species‐specific but could be classified into three categories: little or no change in the distribution (five species), expansion of the distribution range (three species gaining suitable basins mainly northward) and contraction of the distribution (14 species losing suitable basins). Shifting ranges were in accordance with those found in other studies and underlined the high sensitivity of diadromous fish to modifications in their environment.</p></abstract><textClass xml:lang="en"><keywords scheme="keyword"><list><head>keywords</head><item><term>abundance</term></item><item><term>climate change</term></item><item><term>continental scale</term></item><item><term>diadromous fish</term></item><item><term>distribution</term></item><item><term>logistic regression model</term></item><item><term>range shifts</term></item></list></keywords></textClass></profileDesc><revisionDesc><change when="2009-05">Published</change></revisionDesc></teiHeader></istex:fulltextTEI><json:item><extension>txt</extension><original>false</original><mimetype>text/plain</mimetype><uri>https://api.istex.fr/document/03EE5CB7212F71749511A4A3E987EF896B3EE43F/fulltext/txt</uri></json:item></fulltext><metadata><istex:metadataXml wicri:clean="Wiley, elements deleted: body"><istex:xmlDeclaration>version="1.0" encoding="UTF-8" standalone="yes"</istex:xmlDeclaration><istex:document><component version="2.0" type="serialArticle" xml:lang="en"><header><publicationMeta level="product"><publisherInfo><publisherName>Blackwell Publishing Ltd</publisherName><publisherLoc>Oxford, UK</publisherLoc></publisherInfo><doi origin="wiley" registered="yes">10.1111/(ISSN)1365-2486</doi><issn type="print">1354-1013</issn><issn type="electronic">1365-2486</issn><idGroup><id type="product" value="GCB"></id><id type="publisherDivision" value="ST"></id></idGroup><titleGroup><title type="main" sort="GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY">Global Change Biology</title></titleGroup></publicationMeta><publicationMeta level="part" position="05005"><doi origin="wiley">10.1111/gcb.2009.15.issue-5</doi><numberingGroup><numbering type="journalVolume" number="15">15</numbering><numbering type="journalIssue" number="5">5</numbering></numberingGroup><coverDate startDate="2009-05">May 2009</coverDate></publicationMeta><publicationMeta level="unit" type="article" position="2" status="forIssue"><doi origin="wiley">10.1111/j.1365-2486.2008.01794.x</doi><idGroup><id type="unit" value="GCB1794"></id><id type="supplier" value="1794"></id></idGroup><countGroup><count type="pageTotal" number="18"></count></countGroup><titleGroup><title type="tocHeading1">Original Articles</title></titleGroup><copyright>© 2009 The Authors. Journal compilation © 2009 Blackwell Publishing Ltd</copyright><eventGroup><event type="firstOnline" date="2008-11-03"></event><event type="publishedOnlineFinalForm" date="2009-04-07"></event><event type="xmlConverted" agent="Converter:BPG_TO_WML3G version:2.3.5 mode:FullText source:FullText result:FullText" date="2010-04-07"></event><event type="xmlConverted" agent="Converter:WILEY_ML3G_TO_WILEY_ML3GV2 version:3.8.8" date="2014-01-25"></event><event type="xmlConverted" agent="Converter:WML3G_To_WML3G version:4.1.7 mode:FullText,remove_FC" date="2014-10-24"></event></eventGroup><numberingGroup><numbering type="pageFirst" number="1072">1072</numbering><numbering type="pageLast" number="1089">1089</numbering></numberingGroup><correspondenceTo> G. Lassalle, tel. +33 5 57 89 09 98, fax +33 5 57 89 08 01, e‐mail: <email normalForm="geraldine.lassalle@cemagref.fr">geraldine.lassalle@cemagref.fr</email></correspondenceTo><linkGroup><link type="toTypesetVersion" href="file:GCB.GCB1794.pdf"></link></linkGroup></publicationMeta><contentMeta><unparsedEditorialHistory>Received 25 February 2008; revised version received 22 April 2008 and accepted 21 July 2008</unparsedEditorialHistory><countGroup><count type="figureTotal" number="3"></count><count type="tableTotal" number="4"></count><count type="formulaTotal" number="6"></count><count type="referenceTotal" number="91"></count><count type="wordTotal" number="11769"></count><count type="linksCrossRef" number="130"></count></countGroup><titleGroup><title type="main">Impact of twenty‐first century climate change on diadromous fish spread over Europe, North Africa and the Middle East</title><title type="shortAuthors">G. LASSALLE & E. ROCHARD</title><title type="short">CLIMATE CHANGE AND DIADROMOUS FISH DISTRIBUTION</title></titleGroup><creators><creator creatorRole="author" xml:id="cr1" affiliationRef="#a1"><personName><givenNames>G.</givenNames><familyName>LASSALLE</familyName></personName></creator><creator creatorRole="author" xml:id="cr2" affiliationRef="#a1"><personName><givenNames>E.</givenNames><familyName>ROCHARD</familyName></personName></creator></creators><affiliationGroup><affiliation xml:id="a1" countryCode="FR"><unparsedAffiliation>Cemagref, UR EPBX, 50 avenue de Verdun, F‐33612 Cestas, Cedex, France</unparsedAffiliation></affiliation></affiliationGroup><keywordGroup xml:lang="en"><keyword xml:id="k1">abundance</keyword><keyword xml:id="k2">climate change</keyword><keyword xml:id="k3">continental scale</keyword><keyword xml:id="k4">diadromous fish</keyword><keyword xml:id="k5">distribution</keyword><keyword xml:id="k6">logistic regression model</keyword><keyword xml:id="k7">range shifts</keyword></keywordGroup><abstractGroup><abstract type="main" xml:lang="en"><title type="main">Abstract</title><p>Climate change is expected to drive species ranges towards the poles and to have a strong influence on species distributions. In this study, we focused on diadromous species that are of economical and ecological importance in the whole of Europe. We investigated the potential distribution of all diadromous fish regularly encountered in Europe, North Africa and the Middle East (28 species) under conditions predicted for twenty‐first century climate change. To do so, we investigated the 1900 distribution of each species in 196 basins spread across all of Europe, North Africa and the Middle East. Four levels were used to semiquantitatively describe the abundance of species, that is missing, rare, common and abundant. We then selected five variables describing the prevailing climate in the basins, the physical nature of the basins and reflecting historical events known to have affected freshwater fish distribution. Logistic regressions with a four‐level ordinal response variable were used to develop species‐specific models. These predictive models related the observed distribution of these species in 1900 to the most explanatory combination of variables. Finally, we selected the A2 SRES scenario and the HadCM3 (Hadley Centre Coupled Model version 3) global climate model (GCM) to obtain climate variables (temperature and precipitation) at the end of this century. We used these 2100 variables in our models and obtained maps of climatically suitable and unsuitable basins, percentages of contraction or expansion for each species. Twenty‐two models were successfully built, that is there were five species for which no model could be established because their distribution range was too narrow and the <i>Acipenser sturio</i> model failed during calibration. All the models selected temperature or/and precipitation as explanatory variables. Responses to climate change were species‐specific but could be classified into three categories: little or no change in the distribution (five species), expansion of the distribution range (three species gaining suitable basins mainly northward) and contraction of the distribution (14 species losing suitable basins). Shifting ranges were in accordance with those found in other studies and underlined the high sensitivity of diadromous fish to modifications in their environment.</p></abstract></abstractGroup></contentMeta></header></component></istex:document></istex:metadataXml><mods version="3.6"><titleInfo lang="en"><title>Impact of twenty‐first century climate change on diadromous fish spread over Europe, North Africa and the Middle East</title></titleInfo><titleInfo type="abbreviated" lang="en"><title>CLIMATE CHANGE AND DIADROMOUS FISH DISTRIBUTION</title></titleInfo><titleInfo type="alternative" contentType="CDATA" lang="en"><title>Impact of twenty‐first century climate change on diadromous fish spread over Europe, North Africa and the Middle East</title></titleInfo><name type="personal"><namePart type="given">G.</namePart><namePart type="family">LASSALLE</namePart><affiliation>Cemagref, UR EPBX, 50 avenue de Verdun, F‐33612 Cestas, Cedex, France</affiliation><role><roleTerm type="text">author</roleTerm></role></name><name type="personal"><namePart type="given">E.</namePart><namePart type="family">ROCHARD</namePart><affiliation>Cemagref, UR EPBX, 50 avenue de Verdun, F‐33612 Cestas, Cedex, France</affiliation><role><roleTerm type="text">author</roleTerm></role></name><typeOfResource>text</typeOfResource><genre type="article" displayLabel="article"></genre><originInfo><publisher>Blackwell Publishing Ltd</publisher><place><placeTerm type="text">Oxford, UK</placeTerm></place><dateIssued encoding="w3cdtf">2009-05</dateIssued><edition>Received 25 February 2008; revised version received 22 April 2008 and accepted 21 July 2008</edition><copyrightDate encoding="w3cdtf">2009</copyrightDate></originInfo><language><languageTerm type="code" authority="rfc3066">en</languageTerm><languageTerm type="code" authority="iso639-2b">eng</languageTerm></language><physicalDescription><internetMediaType>text/html</internetMediaType><extent unit="figures">3</extent><extent unit="tables">4</extent><extent unit="formulas">6</extent><extent unit="references">91</extent><extent unit="words">11769</extent></physicalDescription><abstract lang="en">Climate change is expected to drive species ranges towards the poles and to have a strong influence on species distributions. In this study, we focused on diadromous species that are of economical and ecological importance in the whole of Europe. We investigated the potential distribution of all diadromous fish regularly encountered in Europe, North Africa and the Middle East (28 species) under conditions predicted for twenty‐first century climate change. To do so, we investigated the 1900 distribution of each species in 196 basins spread across all of Europe, North Africa and the Middle East. Four levels were used to semiquantitatively describe the abundance of species, that is missing, rare, common and abundant. We then selected five variables describing the prevailing climate in the basins, the physical nature of the basins and reflecting historical events known to have affected freshwater fish distribution. Logistic regressions with a four‐level ordinal response variable were used to develop species‐specific models. These predictive models related the observed distribution of these species in 1900 to the most explanatory combination of variables. Finally, we selected the A2 SRES scenario and the HadCM3 (Hadley Centre Coupled Model version 3) global climate model (GCM) to obtain climate variables (temperature and precipitation) at the end of this century. We used these 2100 variables in our models and obtained maps of climatically suitable and unsuitable basins, percentages of contraction or expansion for each species. Twenty‐two models were successfully built, that is there were five species for which no model could be established because their distribution range was too narrow and the Acipenser sturio model failed during calibration. All the models selected temperature or/and precipitation as explanatory variables. Responses to climate change were species‐specific but could be classified into three categories: little or no change in the distribution (five species), expansion of the distribution range (three species gaining suitable basins mainly northward) and contraction of the distribution (14 species losing suitable basins). Shifting ranges were in accordance with those found in other studies and underlined the high sensitivity of diadromous fish to modifications in their environment.</abstract><subject lang="en"><genre>keywords</genre><topic>abundance</topic><topic>climate change</topic><topic>continental scale</topic><topic>diadromous fish</topic><topic>distribution</topic><topic>logistic regression model</topic><topic>range shifts</topic></subject><relatedItem type="host"><titleInfo><title>Global Change Biology</title></titleInfo><genre type="journal">journal</genre><identifier type="ISSN">1354-1013</identifier><identifier type="eISSN">1365-2486</identifier><identifier type="DOI">10.1111/(ISSN)1365-2486</identifier><identifier type="PublisherID">GCB</identifier><part><date>2009</date><detail type="volume"><caption>vol.</caption><number>15</number></detail><detail type="issue"><caption>no.</caption><number>5</number></detail><extent unit="pages"><start>1072</start><end>1089</end><total>18</total></extent></part></relatedItem><identifier type="istex">03EE5CB7212F71749511A4A3E987EF896B3EE43F</identifier><identifier type="DOI">10.1111/j.1365-2486.2008.01794.x</identifier><identifier type="ArticleID">GCB1794</identifier><accessCondition type="use and reproduction" contentType="copyright">© 2009 The Authors. 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