Range shifts or extinction? Ancient DNA and distribution modelling reveal past and future responses to climate warming in cold-adapted birds.
Identifieur interne : 000B21 ( Main/Corpus ); précédent : 000B20; suivant : 000B22Range shifts or extinction? Ancient DNA and distribution modelling reveal past and future responses to climate warming in cold-adapted birds.
Auteurs : Vendela K. Lagerholm ; Edson Sandoval-Castellanos ; Amélie Vaniscotte ; Olga R. Potapova ; Teresa Tomek ; Zbigniew M. Bochenski ; Paul Shepherd ; Nick Barton ; Marie-Claire Van Dyck ; Rebecca Miller ; Jacob Höglund ; Nigel G. Yoccoz ; Love Dalén ; John R. StewartSource :
- Global change biology [ 1365-2486 ] ; 2017.
English descriptors
- KwdEn :
- MESH :
- chemical : DNA, Ancient.
- genetics : Birds.
- Adaptation, Physiological, Animals, Climate, Climate Change, Cold Temperature, Ecosystem, Europe.
Abstract
Global warming is predicted to cause substantial habitat rearrangements, with the most severe effects expected to occur in high-latitude biomes. However, one major uncertainty is whether species will be able to shift their ranges to keep pace with climate-driven environmental changes. Many recent studies on mammals have shown that past range contractions have been associated with local extinctions rather than survival by habitat tracking. Here, we have used an interdisciplinary approach that combines ancient DNA techniques, coalescent simulations and species distribution modelling, to investigate how two common cold-adapted bird species, willow and rock ptarmigan (Lagopus lagopus and Lagopus muta), respond to long-term climate warming. Contrary to previous findings in mammals, we demonstrate a genetic continuity in Europe over the last 20 millennia. Results from back-casted species distribution models suggest that this continuity may have been facilitated by uninterrupted habitat availability and potentially also the greater dispersal ability of birds. However, our predictions show that in the near future, some isolated regions will have little suitable habitat left, implying a future decrease in local populations at a scale unprecedented since the last glacial maximum.
DOI: 10.1111/gcb.13522
PubMed: 27762483
Links to Exploration step
pubmed:27762483Le document en format XML
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Lagerholm</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Department of Bioinformatics and Genetics, Swedish Museum of Natural History, Stockholm, Sweden.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Department of Zoology, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Sandoval Castellanos, Edson" sort="Sandoval Castellanos, Edson" uniqKey="Sandoval Castellanos E" first="Edson" last="Sandoval-Castellanos">Edson Sandoval-Castellanos</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Department of Bioinformatics and Genetics, Swedish Museum of Natural History, Stockholm, Sweden.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Department of Zoology, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Centro de Ciencias de la Complejidad, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Ciudad de México, México.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Vaniscotte, Amelie" sort="Vaniscotte, Amelie" uniqKey="Vaniscotte A" first="Amélie" last="Vaniscotte">Amélie Vaniscotte</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Department of Arctic and Marine Biology, UiT The Arctic University of Norway, Tromsø, Norway.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Potapova, Olga R" sort="Potapova, Olga R" uniqKey="Potapova O" first="Olga R" last="Potapova">Olga R. Potapova</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Mammoth Site of Hot Springs, SD, Inc., Hot Springs, NC, USA.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Tomek, Teresa" sort="Tomek, Teresa" uniqKey="Tomek T" first="Teresa" last="Tomek">Teresa Tomek</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Institute of Systematics and Evolution of Animals, Polish Academy of Sciences, Kraków, Poland.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Bochenski, Zbigniew M" sort="Bochenski, Zbigniew M" uniqKey="Bochenski Z" first="Zbigniew M" last="Bochenski">Zbigniew M. 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Stewart</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>School of Applied Sciences, Bournemouth University, Dorset House, Talbot Campus, Poole, UK.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author></titleStmt><publicationStmt><idno type="wicri:source">PubMed</idno><date when="2017">2017</date><idno type="RBID">pubmed:27762483</idno><idno type="pmid">27762483</idno><idno type="doi">10.1111/gcb.13522</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/Main/Corpus">000B21</idno><idno type="wicri:explorRef" wicri:stream="Main" wicri:step="Corpus" wicri:corpus="PubMed">000B21</idno></publicationStmt><sourceDesc><biblStruct><analytic><title xml:lang="en">Range shifts or extinction? Ancient DNA and distribution modelling reveal past and future responses to climate warming in cold-adapted birds.</title><author><name sortKey="Lagerholm, Vendela K" sort="Lagerholm, Vendela K" uniqKey="Lagerholm V" first="Vendela K" last="Lagerholm">Vendela K. Lagerholm</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Department of Bioinformatics and Genetics, Swedish Museum of Natural History, Stockholm, Sweden.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Department of Zoology, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Sandoval Castellanos, Edson" sort="Sandoval Castellanos, Edson" uniqKey="Sandoval Castellanos E" first="Edson" last="Sandoval-Castellanos">Edson Sandoval-Castellanos</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Department of Bioinformatics and Genetics, Swedish Museum of Natural History, Stockholm, Sweden.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Department of Zoology, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Centro de Ciencias de la Complejidad, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Ciudad de México, México.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Vaniscotte, Amelie" sort="Vaniscotte, Amelie" uniqKey="Vaniscotte A" first="Amélie" last="Vaniscotte">Amélie Vaniscotte</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Department of Arctic and Marine Biology, UiT The Arctic University of Norway, Tromsø, Norway.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Potapova, Olga R" sort="Potapova, Olga R" uniqKey="Potapova O" first="Olga R" last="Potapova">Olga R. Potapova</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Mammoth Site of Hot Springs, SD, Inc., Hot Springs, NC, USA.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Tomek, Teresa" sort="Tomek, Teresa" uniqKey="Tomek T" first="Teresa" last="Tomek">Teresa Tomek</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Institute of Systematics and Evolution of Animals, Polish Academy of Sciences, Kraków, Poland.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Bochenski, Zbigniew M" sort="Bochenski, Zbigniew M" uniqKey="Bochenski Z" first="Zbigniew M" last="Bochenski">Zbigniew M. Bochenski</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Institute of Systematics and Evolution of Animals, Polish Academy of Sciences, Kraków, Poland.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Shepherd, Paul" sort="Shepherd, Paul" uniqKey="Shepherd P" first="Paul" last="Shepherd">Paul Shepherd</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>British Geological Survey, Nottingham, UK.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Barton, Nick" sort="Barton, Nick" uniqKey="Barton N" first="Nick" last="Barton">Nick Barton</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Institute of Archaeology, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Van Dyck, Marie Claire" sort="Van Dyck, Marie Claire" uniqKey="Van Dyck M" first="Marie-Claire" last="Van Dyck">Marie-Claire Van Dyck</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Institute for the Analysis of Change in Contemporary and Historical Societies, Université Catholique de Louvain, Louvain-la-Neuve, Belgium.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Miller, Rebecca" sort="Miller, Rebecca" uniqKey="Miller R" first="Rebecca" last="Miller">Rebecca Miller</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Service of Prehistory, University of Liège, Liège, Belgium.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Hoglund, Jacob" sort="Hoglund, Jacob" uniqKey="Hoglund J" first="Jacob" last="Höglund">Jacob Höglund</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Department of Ecology and Genetics, Evolutionary Biology Centre, Uppsala University, Uppsala, Sweden.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Yoccoz, Nigel G" sort="Yoccoz, Nigel G" uniqKey="Yoccoz N" first="Nigel G" last="Yoccoz">Nigel G. Yoccoz</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Department of Arctic and Marine Biology, UiT The Arctic University of Norway, Tromsø, Norway.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Dalen, Love" sort="Dalen, Love" uniqKey="Dalen L" first="Love" last="Dalén">Love Dalén</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Department of Bioinformatics and Genetics, Swedish Museum of Natural History, Stockholm, Sweden.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Stewart, John R" sort="Stewart, John R" uniqKey="Stewart J" first="John R" last="Stewart">John R. Stewart</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>School of Applied Sciences, Bournemouth University, Dorset House, Talbot Campus, Poole, UK.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author></analytic><series><title level="j">Global change biology</title><idno type="eISSN">1365-2486</idno><imprint><date when="2017" type="published">2017</date></imprint></series></biblStruct></sourceDesc></fileDesc><profileDesc><textClass><keywords scheme="KwdEn" xml:lang="en"><term>Adaptation, Physiological (MeSH)</term><term>Animals (MeSH)</term><term>Birds (genetics)</term><term>Climate (MeSH)</term><term>Climate Change (MeSH)</term><term>Cold Temperature (MeSH)</term><term>DNA, Ancient (MeSH)</term><term>Ecosystem (MeSH)</term><term>Europe (MeSH)</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" type="chemical" xml:lang="en"><term>DNA, Ancient</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="genetics" xml:lang="en"><term>Birds</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" xml:lang="en"><term>Adaptation, Physiological</term><term>Animals</term><term>Climate</term><term>Climate Change</term><term>Cold Temperature</term><term>Ecosystem</term><term>Europe</term></keywords></textClass></profileDesc></teiHeader><front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en">Global warming is predicted to cause substantial habitat rearrangements, with the most severe effects expected to occur in high-latitude biomes. However, one major uncertainty is whether species will be able to shift their ranges to keep pace with climate-driven environmental changes. Many recent studies on mammals have shown that past range contractions have been associated with local extinctions rather than survival by habitat tracking. Here, we have used an interdisciplinary approach that combines ancient DNA techniques, coalescent simulations and species distribution modelling, to investigate how two common cold-adapted bird species, willow and rock ptarmigan (Lagopus lagopus and Lagopus muta), respond to long-term climate warming. Contrary to previous findings in mammals, we demonstrate a genetic continuity in Europe over the last 20 millennia. Results from back-casted species distribution models suggest that this continuity may have been facilitated by uninterrupted habitat availability and potentially also the greater dispersal ability of birds. However, our predictions show that in the near future, some isolated regions will have little suitable habitat left, implying a future decrease in local populations at a scale unprecedented since the last glacial maximum.</div></front></TEI><pubmed><MedlineCitation Status="MEDLINE" IndexingMethod="Curated" Owner="NLM"><PMID Version="1">27762483</PMID><DateCompleted><Year>2017</Year><Month>10</Month><Day>20</Day></DateCompleted><DateRevised><Year>2018</Year><Month>12</Month><Day>02</Day></DateRevised><Article PubModel="Print-Electronic"><Journal><ISSN IssnType="Electronic">1365-2486</ISSN><JournalIssue CitedMedium="Internet"><Volume>23</Volume><Issue>4</Issue><PubDate><Year>2017</Year><Month>04</Month></PubDate></JournalIssue><Title>Global change biology</Title><ISOAbbreviation>Glob Chang Biol</ISOAbbreviation></Journal><ArticleTitle>Range shifts or extinction? Ancient DNA and distribution modelling reveal past and future responses to climate warming in cold-adapted birds.</ArticleTitle><Pagination><MedlinePgn>1425-1435</MedlinePgn></Pagination><ELocationID EIdType="doi" ValidYN="Y">10.1111/gcb.13522</ELocationID><Abstract><AbstractText>Global warming is predicted to cause substantial habitat rearrangements, with the most severe effects expected to occur in high-latitude biomes. However, one major uncertainty is whether species will be able to shift their ranges to keep pace with climate-driven environmental changes. Many recent studies on mammals have shown that past range contractions have been associated with local extinctions rather than survival by habitat tracking. Here, we have used an interdisciplinary approach that combines ancient DNA techniques, coalescent simulations and species distribution modelling, to investigate how two common cold-adapted bird species, willow and rock ptarmigan (Lagopus lagopus and Lagopus muta), respond to long-term climate warming. Contrary to previous findings in mammals, we demonstrate a genetic continuity in Europe over the last 20 millennia. Results from back-casted species distribution models suggest that this continuity may have been facilitated by uninterrupted habitat availability and potentially also the greater dispersal ability of birds. However, our predictions show that in the near future, some isolated regions will have little suitable habitat left, implying a future decrease in local populations at a scale unprecedented since the last glacial maximum.</AbstractText><CopyrightInformation>© 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.</CopyrightInformation></Abstract><AuthorList CompleteYN="Y"><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Lagerholm</LastName><ForeName>Vendela K</ForeName><Initials>VK</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Department of Bioinformatics and Genetics, Swedish Museum of Natural History, Stockholm, Sweden.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Department of Zoology, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Sandoval-Castellanos</LastName><ForeName>Edson</ForeName><Initials>E</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Department of Bioinformatics and Genetics, Swedish Museum of Natural History, Stockholm, Sweden.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Department of Zoology, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Centro de Ciencias de la Complejidad, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Ciudad de México, México.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Vaniscotte</LastName><ForeName>Amélie</ForeName><Initials>A</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Department of Arctic and Marine Biology, UiT The Arctic University of Norway, Tromsø, Norway.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Potapova</LastName><ForeName>Olga R</ForeName><Initials>OR</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Mammoth Site of Hot Springs, SD, Inc., Hot Springs, NC, USA.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Tomek</LastName><ForeName>Teresa</ForeName><Initials>T</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Institute of Systematics and Evolution of Animals, Polish Academy of Sciences, Kraków, Poland.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Bochenski</LastName><ForeName>Zbigniew M</ForeName><Initials>ZM</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Institute of Systematics and Evolution of Animals, Polish Academy of Sciences, Kraków, Poland.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Shepherd</LastName><ForeName>Paul</ForeName><Initials>P</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>British Geological Survey, Nottingham, UK.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Barton</LastName><ForeName>Nick</ForeName><Initials>N</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Institute of Archaeology, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Van Dyck</LastName><ForeName>Marie-Claire</ForeName><Initials>MC</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Institute for the Analysis of Change in Contemporary and Historical Societies, Université Catholique de Louvain, Louvain-la-Neuve, Belgium.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Miller</LastName><ForeName>Rebecca</ForeName><Initials>R</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Service of Prehistory, University of Liège, Liège, Belgium.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Höglund</LastName><ForeName>Jacob</ForeName><Initials>J</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Department of Ecology and Genetics, Evolutionary Biology Centre, Uppsala University, Uppsala, Sweden.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Yoccoz</LastName><ForeName>Nigel G</ForeName><Initials>NG</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Department of Arctic and Marine Biology, UiT The Arctic University of Norway, Tromsø, Norway.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Dalén</LastName><ForeName>Love</ForeName><Initials>L</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Department of Bioinformatics and Genetics, Swedish Museum of Natural History, Stockholm, Sweden.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Stewart</LastName><ForeName>John R</ForeName><Initials>JR</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>School of Applied Sciences, Bournemouth University, Dorset House, Talbot Campus, Poole, UK.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author></AuthorList><Language>eng</Language><PublicationTypeList><PublicationType UI="D016428">Journal Article</PublicationType></PublicationTypeList><ArticleDate DateType="Electronic"><Year>2016</Year><Month>10</Month><Day>20</Day></ArticleDate></Article><MedlineJournalInfo><Country>England</Country><MedlineTA>Glob Chang Biol</MedlineTA><NlmUniqueID>9888746</NlmUniqueID><ISSNLinking>1354-1013</ISSNLinking></MedlineJournalInfo><ChemicalList><Chemical><RegistryNumber>0</RegistryNumber><NameOfSubstance UI="D000072441">DNA, Ancient</NameOfSubstance></Chemical></ChemicalList><CitationSubset>IM</CitationSubset><MeshHeadingList><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D000222" MajorTopicYN="N">Adaptation, Physiological</DescriptorName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D000818" MajorTopicYN="N">Animals</DescriptorName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D001717" MajorTopicYN="N">Birds</DescriptorName><QualifierName UI="Q000235" MajorTopicYN="Y">genetics</QualifierName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D002980" MajorTopicYN="N">Climate</DescriptorName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D057231" MajorTopicYN="Y">Climate Change</DescriptorName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D003080" MajorTopicYN="N">Cold Temperature</DescriptorName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D000072441" MajorTopicYN="Y">DNA, Ancient</DescriptorName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D017753" MajorTopicYN="N">Ecosystem</DescriptorName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D005060" MajorTopicYN="N">Europe</DescriptorName></MeshHeading></MeshHeadingList><KeywordList Owner="NOTNLM"><Keyword MajorTopicYN="Y">Lagopus
</Keyword><Keyword MajorTopicYN="Y">Pleistocene</Keyword><Keyword MajorTopicYN="Y">approximate Bayesian computation</Keyword><Keyword MajorTopicYN="Y">climate change</Keyword><Keyword MajorTopicYN="Y">colonization</Keyword><Keyword MajorTopicYN="Y">extinction</Keyword><Keyword MajorTopicYN="Y">palaeogenetics</Keyword><Keyword MajorTopicYN="Y">phylogeography</Keyword><Keyword MajorTopicYN="Y">species distribution modelling</Keyword></KeywordList></MedlineCitation><PubmedData><History><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="received"><Year>2016</Year><Month>06</Month><Day>17</Day></PubMedPubDate><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="accepted"><Year>2016</Year><Month>08</Month><Day>13</Day></PubMedPubDate><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="pubmed"><Year>2016</Year><Month>10</Month><Day>21</Day><Hour>6</Hour><Minute>0</Minute></PubMedPubDate><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="medline"><Year>2017</Year><Month>10</Month><Day>21</Day><Hour>6</Hour><Minute>0</Minute></PubMedPubDate><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="entrez"><Year>2016</Year><Month>10</Month><Day>21</Day><Hour>6</Hour><Minute>0</Minute></PubMedPubDate></History><PublicationStatus>ppublish</PublicationStatus><ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">27762483</ArticleId><ArticleId IdType="doi">10.1111/gcb.13522</ArticleId></ArticleIdList></PubmedData></pubmed></record>Pour manipuler ce document sous Unix (Dilib)
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