Too good to be true: when overwhelming evidence fails to convince.
Identifieur interne : 002095 ( PubMed/Corpus ); précédent : 002094; suivant : 002096Too good to be true: when overwhelming evidence fails to convince.
Auteurs : Lachlan J. Gunn ; François Chapeau-Blondeau ; Mark D. Mcdonnell ; Bruce R. Davis ; Andrew Allison ; Derek AbbottSource :
- Proceedings. Mathematical, physical, and engineering sciences [ 1364-5021 ] ; 2016.
Abstract
Is it possible for a large sequence of measurements or observations, which support a hypothesis, to counterintuitively decrease our confidence? Can unanimous support be too good to be true? The assumption of independence is often made in good faith; however, rarely is consideration given to whether a systemic failure has occurred. Taking this into account can cause certainty in a hypothesis to decrease as the evidence for it becomes apparently stronger. We perform a probabilistic Bayesian analysis of this effect with examples based on (i) archaeological evidence, (ii) weighing of legal evidence and (iii) cryptographic primality testing. In this paper, we investigate the effects of small error rates in a set of measurements or observations. We find that even with very low systemic failure rates, high confidence is surprisingly difficult to achieve; in particular, we find that certain analyses of cryptographically important numerical tests are highly optimistic, underestimating their false-negative rate by as much as a factor of 2(80).
DOI: 10.1098/rspa.2015.0748
PubMed: 27118917
Links to Exploration step
pubmed:27118917Le document en format XML
<record><TEI><teiHeader><fileDesc><titleStmt><title xml:lang="en">Too good to be true: when overwhelming evidence fails to convince.</title><author><name sortKey="Gunn, Lachlan J" sort="Gunn, Lachlan J" uniqKey="Gunn L" first="Lachlan J" last="Gunn">Lachlan J. Gunn</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>School of Electrical and Electronic Engineering, The University of Adelaide , Adelaide 5005, Australia.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Chapeau Blondeau, Francois" sort="Chapeau Blondeau, Francois" uniqKey="Chapeau Blondeau F" first="François" last="Chapeau-Blondeau">François Chapeau-Blondeau</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Laboratoire Angevin de Recherche en Ingénierie des Systèmes (LARIS) , University of Angers , 62 avenue Notre Dame du Lac, Angers 49000, France.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Mcdonnell, Mark D" sort="Mcdonnell, Mark D" uniqKey="Mcdonnell M" first="Mark D" last="Mcdonnell">Mark D. Mcdonnell</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>School of Electrical and Electronic Engineering, The University of Adelaide, Adelaide 5005, Australia; School of Information Technology and Mathematical Sciences, University of South Australia, Mawson Lakes, South Australia 5095, Australia.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Davis, Bruce R" sort="Davis, Bruce R" uniqKey="Davis B" first="Bruce R" last="Davis">Bruce R. Davis</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>School of Electrical and Electronic Engineering, The University of Adelaide , Adelaide 5005, Australia.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Allison, Andrew" sort="Allison, Andrew" uniqKey="Allison A" first="Andrew" last="Allison">Andrew Allison</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>School of Electrical and Electronic Engineering, The University of Adelaide , Adelaide 5005, Australia.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Abbott, Derek" sort="Abbott, Derek" uniqKey="Abbott D" first="Derek" last="Abbott">Derek Abbott</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>School of Electrical and Electronic Engineering, The University of Adelaide , Adelaide 5005, Australia.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author></titleStmt><publicationStmt><idno type="wicri:source">PubMed</idno><date when="2016">2016</date><idno type="RBID">pubmed:27118917</idno><idno type="pmid">27118917</idno><idno type="doi">10.1098/rspa.2015.0748</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/PubMed/Corpus">002095</idno><idno type="wicri:explorRef" wicri:stream="PubMed" wicri:step="Corpus" wicri:corpus="PubMed">002095</idno></publicationStmt><sourceDesc><biblStruct><analytic><title xml:lang="en">Too good to be true: when overwhelming evidence fails to convince.</title><author><name sortKey="Gunn, Lachlan J" sort="Gunn, Lachlan J" uniqKey="Gunn L" first="Lachlan J" last="Gunn">Lachlan J. Gunn</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>School of Electrical and Electronic Engineering, The University of Adelaide , Adelaide 5005, Australia.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Chapeau Blondeau, Francois" sort="Chapeau Blondeau, Francois" uniqKey="Chapeau Blondeau F" first="François" last="Chapeau-Blondeau">François Chapeau-Blondeau</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Laboratoire Angevin de Recherche en Ingénierie des Systèmes (LARIS) , University of Angers , 62 avenue Notre Dame du Lac, Angers 49000, France.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Mcdonnell, Mark D" sort="Mcdonnell, Mark D" uniqKey="Mcdonnell M" first="Mark D" last="Mcdonnell">Mark D. Mcdonnell</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>School of Electrical and Electronic Engineering, The University of Adelaide, Adelaide 5005, Australia; School of Information Technology and Mathematical Sciences, University of South Australia, Mawson Lakes, South Australia 5095, Australia.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Davis, Bruce R" sort="Davis, Bruce R" uniqKey="Davis B" first="Bruce R" last="Davis">Bruce R. Davis</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>School of Electrical and Electronic Engineering, The University of Adelaide , Adelaide 5005, Australia.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Allison, Andrew" sort="Allison, Andrew" uniqKey="Allison A" first="Andrew" last="Allison">Andrew Allison</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>School of Electrical and Electronic Engineering, The University of Adelaide , Adelaide 5005, Australia.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Abbott, Derek" sort="Abbott, Derek" uniqKey="Abbott D" first="Derek" last="Abbott">Derek Abbott</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>School of Electrical and Electronic Engineering, The University of Adelaide , Adelaide 5005, Australia.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author></analytic><series><title level="j">Proceedings. Mathematical, physical, and engineering sciences</title><idno type="ISSN">1364-5021</idno><imprint><date when="2016" type="published">2016</date></imprint></series></biblStruct></sourceDesc></fileDesc><profileDesc><textClass></textClass></profileDesc></teiHeader><front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en">Is it possible for a large sequence of measurements or observations, which support a hypothesis, to counterintuitively decrease our confidence? Can unanimous support be too good to be true? The assumption of independence is often made in good faith; however, rarely is consideration given to whether a systemic failure has occurred. Taking this into account can cause certainty in a hypothesis to decrease as the evidence for it becomes apparently stronger. We perform a probabilistic Bayesian analysis of this effect with examples based on (i) archaeological evidence, (ii) weighing of legal evidence and (iii) cryptographic primality testing. In this paper, we investigate the effects of small error rates in a set of measurements or observations. We find that even with very low systemic failure rates, high confidence is surprisingly difficult to achieve; in particular, we find that certain analyses of cryptographically important numerical tests are highly optimistic, underestimating their false-negative rate by as much as a factor of 2(80).</div></front></TEI><pubmed><MedlineCitation Status="Publisher" Owner="NLM"><PMID Version="1">27118917</PMID><DateCreated><Year>2016</Year><Month>04</Month><Day>27</Day></DateCreated><DateRevised><Year>2017</Year><Month>03</Month><Day>01</Day></DateRevised><Article PubModel="Print"><Journal><ISSN IssnType="Print">1364-5021</ISSN><JournalIssue CitedMedium="Print"><Volume>472</Volume><Issue>2187</Issue><PubDate><Year>2016</Year><Month>Mar</Month></PubDate></JournalIssue><Title>Proceedings. Mathematical, physical, and engineering sciences</Title><ISOAbbreviation>Proc. Math. Phys. Eng. Sci.</ISOAbbreviation></Journal><ArticleTitle>Too good to be true: when overwhelming evidence fails to convince.</ArticleTitle><Pagination><MedlinePgn>20150748</MedlinePgn></Pagination><Abstract><AbstractText>Is it possible for a large sequence of measurements or observations, which support a hypothesis, to counterintuitively decrease our confidence? Can unanimous support be too good to be true? The assumption of independence is often made in good faith; however, rarely is consideration given to whether a systemic failure has occurred. Taking this into account can cause certainty in a hypothesis to decrease as the evidence for it becomes apparently stronger. We perform a probabilistic Bayesian analysis of this effect with examples based on (i) archaeological evidence, (ii) weighing of legal evidence and (iii) cryptographic primality testing. In this paper, we investigate the effects of small error rates in a set of measurements or observations. We find that even with very low systemic failure rates, high confidence is surprisingly difficult to achieve; in particular, we find that certain analyses of cryptographically important numerical tests are highly optimistic, underestimating their false-negative rate by as much as a factor of 2(80).</AbstractText></Abstract><AuthorList CompleteYN="Y"><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Gunn</LastName><ForeName>Lachlan J</ForeName><Initials>LJ</Initials><Identifier Source="ORCID">0000-0003-1767-7897</Identifier><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>School of Electrical and Electronic Engineering, The University of Adelaide , Adelaide 5005, Australia.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Chapeau-Blondeau</LastName><ForeName>François</ForeName><Initials>F</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Laboratoire Angevin de Recherche en Ingénierie des Systèmes (LARIS) , University of Angers , 62 avenue Notre Dame du Lac, Angers 49000, France.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>McDonnell</LastName><ForeName>Mark D</ForeName><Initials>MD</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>School of Electrical and Electronic Engineering, The University of Adelaide, Adelaide 5005, Australia; School of Information Technology and Mathematical Sciences, University of South Australia, Mawson Lakes, South Australia 5095, Australia.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Davis</LastName><ForeName>Bruce R</ForeName><Initials>BR</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>School of Electrical and Electronic Engineering, The University of Adelaide , Adelaide 5005, Australia.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Allison</LastName><ForeName>Andrew</ForeName><Initials>A</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>School of Electrical and Electronic Engineering, The University of Adelaide , Adelaide 5005, Australia.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Abbott</LastName><ForeName>Derek</ForeName><Initials>D</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>School of Electrical and Electronic Engineering, The University of Adelaide , Adelaide 5005, Australia.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author></AuthorList><Language>eng</Language><PublicationTypeList><PublicationType UI="D016428">Journal Article</PublicationType></PublicationTypeList></Article><MedlineJournalInfo><Country>England</Country><MedlineTA>Proc Math Phys Eng Sci</MedlineTA><NlmUniqueID>9891746</NlmUniqueID><ISSNLinking>1364-5021</ISSNLinking></MedlineJournalInfo><CommentsCorrectionsList><CommentsCorrections RefType="Cites"><RefSource>Chaos. 2001 Sep;11(3):705-714</RefSource><PMID Version="1">12779509</PMID></CommentsCorrections><CommentsCorrections RefType="Cites"><RefSource>Environ Health Perspect. 2005 Jun;113(6):A374-7</RefSource><PMID Version="1">15929878</PMID></CommentsCorrections><CommentsCorrections RefType="Cites"><RefSource>PLoS Comput Biol. 2009 May;5(5):e1000348</RefSource><PMID Version="1">19562010</PMID></CommentsCorrections><CommentsCorrections RefType="Cites"><RefSource>Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2012 Jun 12;109(24):9331-6</RefSource><PMID Version="1">22645350</PMID></CommentsCorrections></CommentsCorrectionsList><KeywordList Owner="NOTNLM"><Keyword MajorTopicYN="N">Bayesian</Keyword><Keyword MajorTopicYN="N">criminology</Keyword><Keyword MajorTopicYN="N">cryptography</Keyword></KeywordList></MedlineCitation><PubmedData><History><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="pmc-release"><Year>2017</Year><Month>03</Month><Day>01</Day></PubMedPubDate><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="entrez"><Year>2016</Year><Month>4</Month><Day>28</Day><Hour>6</Hour><Minute>0</Minute></PubMedPubDate><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="pubmed"><Year>2016</Year><Month>4</Month><Day>28</Day><Hour>6</Hour><Minute>0</Minute></PubMedPubDate><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="medline"><Year>2016</Year><Month>4</Month><Day>28</Day><Hour>6</Hour><Minute>0</Minute></PubMedPubDate></History><PublicationStatus>ppublish</PublicationStatus><ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">27118917</ArticleId><ArticleId IdType="doi">10.1098/rspa.2015.0748</ArticleId><ArticleId IdType="pii">rspa20150748</ArticleId><ArticleId IdType="pmc">PMC4841483</ArticleId></ArticleIdList><pmc-dir>pmcsd</pmc-dir>
</PubmedData></pubmed></record>Pour manipuler ce document sous Unix (Dilib)
EXPLOR_STEP=$WICRI_ROOT/Wicri/Asie/explor/AustralieFrV1/Data/PubMed/Corpus
HfdSelect -h $EXPLOR_STEP/biblio.hfd -nk 002095 | SxmlIndent | more
Ou
HfdSelect -h $EXPLOR_AREA/Data/PubMed/Corpus/biblio.hfd -nk 002095 | SxmlIndent | more
Pour mettre un lien sur cette page dans le réseau Wicri
{{Explor lien
|wiki= Wicri/Asie
|area= AustralieFrV1
|flux= PubMed
|étape= Corpus
|type= RBID
|clé= pubmed:27118917
|texte= Too good to be true: when overwhelming evidence fails to convince.
}}
Pour générer des pages wiki
HfdIndexSelect -h $EXPLOR_AREA/Data/PubMed/Corpus/RBID.i -Sk "pubmed:27118917" \
| HfdSelect -Kh $EXPLOR_AREA/Data/PubMed/Corpus/biblio.hfd \
| NlmPubMed2Wicri -a AustralieFrV1
| This area was generated with Dilib version V0.6.33. |  |