Persistence and change in community composition of reef corals through present, past, and future climates.
Identifieur interne : 003318 ( PubMed/Checkpoint ); précédent : 003317; suivant : 003319Persistence and change in community composition of reef corals through present, past, and future climates.
Auteurs : Peter J. Edmunds [États-Unis] ; Mehdi Adjeroud [France] ; Marissa L. Baskett [États-Unis] ; Iliana B. Baums [États-Unis] ; Ann F. Budd [États-Unis] ; Robert C. Carpenter [États-Unis] ; Nicholas S. Fabina [États-Unis] ; Tung-Yung Fan [République populaire de Chine] ; Erik C. Franklin [États-Unis] ; Kevin Gross [États-Unis] ; Xueying Han [États-Unis] ; Lianne Jacobson [États-Unis] ; James S. Klaus [États-Unis] ; Tim R. Mcclanahan [États-Unis] ; Jennifer K. O'Leary [États-Unis] ; Madeleine J H. Van Oppen [Australie] ; Xavier Pochon [Nouvelle-Zélande] ; Hollie M. Putnam [États-Unis] ; Tyler B. Smith [États-Unis] ; Michael Stat [Australie] ; Hugh Sweatman [Australie] ; Robert Van Woesik [États-Unis] ; Ruth D. Gates [États-Unis]Source :
- PloS one [ 1932-6203 ] ; 2014.
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Abstract
The reduction in coral cover on many contemporary tropical reefs suggests a different set of coral community assemblages will dominate future reefs. To evaluate the capacity of reef corals to persist over various time scales, we examined coral community dynamics in contemporary, fossil, and simulated future coral reef ecosystems. Based on studies between 1987 and 2012 at two locations in the Caribbean, and between 1981 and 2013 at five locations in the Indo-Pacific, we show that many coral genera declined in abundance, some showed no change in abundance, and a few coral genera increased in abundance. Whether the abundance of a genus declined, increased, or was conserved, was independent of coral family. An analysis of fossil-reef communities in the Caribbean revealed changes in numerical dominance and relative abundances of coral genera, and demonstrated that neither dominance nor taxon was associated with persistence. As coral family was a poor predictor of performance on contemporary reefs, a trait-based, dynamic, multi-patch model was developed to explore the phenotypic basis of ecological performance in a warmer future. Sensitivity analyses revealed that upon exposure to thermal stress, thermal tolerance, growth rate, and longevity were the most important predictors of coral persistence. Together, our results underscore the high variation in the rates and direction of change in coral abundances on contemporary and fossil reefs. Given this variation, it remains possible that coral reefs will be populated by a subset of the present coral fauna in a future that is warmer than the recent past.
DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0107525
PubMed: 25272143
Affiliations:
- Australie, France, Nouvelle-Zélande, République populaire de Chine, États-Unis
- Californie, Caroline du Nord, Floride, Hawaï, Iowa, Languedoc-Roussillon, Occitanie (région administrative), Pennsylvanie, État de New York
- Iowa City, Perpignan, Santa Barbara (Californie), University Park (Pennsylvanie)
- Université d'État de Pennsylvanie, Université de Californie à Santa Barbara, Université de l'Iowa
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Edmunds</name><affiliation wicri:level="2"><nlm:affiliation>Department of Biology, California State University Northridge, Northridge, California, United States of America.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country><wicri:regionArea>Department of Biology, California State University Northridge, Northridge, California</wicri:regionArea><placeName><region type="state">Californie</region></placeName></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Adjeroud, Mehdi" sort="Adjeroud, Mehdi" uniqKey="Adjeroud M" first="Mehdi" last="Adjeroud">Mehdi Adjeroud</name><affiliation wicri:level="3"><nlm:affiliation>Institut de Recherche pour le Développement, Unité de Recherche CoReUs, Observatoire Océanologique de Banyuls, Banyuls-sur-Mer, France; Laboratoire d'Excellence "CORAIL", Perpignan, France.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">France</country><wicri:regionArea>Institut de Recherche pour le Développement, Unité de Recherche CoReUs, Observatoire Océanologique de Banyuls, Banyuls-sur-Mer, France; Laboratoire d'Excellence "CORAIL", Perpignan</wicri:regionArea><placeName><region type="region">Occitanie (région administrative)</region><region type="old region">Languedoc-Roussillon</region><settlement type="city">Perpignan</settlement></placeName></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Baskett, Marissa L" sort="Baskett, Marissa L" uniqKey="Baskett M" first="Marissa L" last="Baskett">Marissa L. 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Klaus</name><affiliation wicri:level="2"><nlm:affiliation>Department of Geological Sciences, University of Miami, Coral Gables, Florida, United States of America.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country><wicri:regionArea>Department of Geological Sciences, University of Miami, Coral Gables, Florida</wicri:regionArea><placeName><region type="state">Floride</region></placeName></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Mcclanahan, Tim R" sort="Mcclanahan, Tim R" uniqKey="Mcclanahan T" first="Tim R" last="Mcclanahan">Tim R. 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Van Oppen</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>Australian Institute of Marine Science, Townsville, Queensland, Australia.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">Australie</country><wicri:regionArea>Australian Institute of Marine Science, Townsville, Queensland</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Queensland</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Pochon, Xavier" sort="Pochon, Xavier" uniqKey="Pochon X" first="Xavier" last="Pochon">Xavier Pochon</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>The Cawthron Institute, Nelson, New Zealand.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">Nouvelle-Zélande</country><wicri:regionArea>The Cawthron Institute, Nelson</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Nelson</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Putnam, Hollie M" sort="Putnam, Hollie M" uniqKey="Putnam H" first="Hollie M" last="Putnam">Hollie M. Putnam</name><affiliation wicri:level="2"><nlm:affiliation>Hawaii Institute of Marine Biology, School of Ocean and Earth Science and Technology, University of Hawaii, Kaneohe, Hawaii, United States of America.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country><wicri:regionArea>Hawaii Institute of Marine Biology, School of Ocean and Earth Science and Technology, University of Hawaii, Kaneohe, Hawaii</wicri:regionArea><placeName><region type="state">Hawaï</region></placeName></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Smith, Tyler B" sort="Smith, Tyler B" uniqKey="Smith T" first="Tyler B" last="Smith">Tyler B. Smith</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>Center for Marine and Environmental Studies, University of the Virgin Islands, St. Thomas, Virgin Islands, United States of America.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country><wicri:regionArea>Center for Marine and Environmental Studies, University of the Virgin Islands, St. Thomas, Virgin Islands</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Virgin Islands</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Stat, Michael" sort="Stat, Michael" uniqKey="Stat M" first="Michael" last="Stat">Michael Stat</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>The University of Western Australia Oceans Institute and the Centre for Microscopy, Characterisation and Analysis, University of Western Australia, Crawley, Western Australia, Australia.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">Australie</country><wicri:regionArea>The University of Western Australia Oceans Institute and the Centre for Microscopy, Characterisation and Analysis, University of Western Australia, Crawley, Western Australia</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Western Australia</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Sweatman, Hugh" sort="Sweatman, Hugh" uniqKey="Sweatman H" first="Hugh" last="Sweatman">Hugh Sweatman</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>Australian Institute of Marine Science, Townsville, Queensland, Australia.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">Australie</country><wicri:regionArea>Australian Institute of Marine Science, Townsville, Queensland</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Queensland</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Van Woesik, Robert" sort="Van Woesik, Robert" uniqKey="Van Woesik R" first="Robert" last="Van Woesik">Robert Van Woesik</name><affiliation wicri:level="2"><nlm:affiliation>Department of Biological Sciences, Florida Institute of Technology, Melbourne, Florida, United States of America.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country><wicri:regionArea>Department of Biological Sciences, Florida Institute of Technology, Melbourne, Florida</wicri:regionArea><placeName><region type="state">Floride</region></placeName></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Gates, Ruth D" sort="Gates, Ruth D" uniqKey="Gates R" first="Ruth D" last="Gates">Ruth D. Gates</name><affiliation wicri:level="2"><nlm:affiliation>Hawaii Institute of Marine Biology, School of Ocean and Earth Science and Technology, University of Hawaii, Kaneohe, Hawaii, United States of America.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country><wicri:regionArea>Hawaii Institute of Marine Biology, School of Ocean and Earth Science and Technology, University of Hawaii, Kaneohe, Hawaii</wicri:regionArea><placeName><region type="state">Hawaï</region></placeName></affiliation></author></titleStmt><publicationStmt><idno type="wicri:source">PubMed</idno><date when="2014">2014</date><idno type="RBID">pubmed:25272143</idno><idno type="pmid">25272143</idno><idno type="doi">10.1371/journal.pone.0107525</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/PubMed/Corpus">003424</idno><idno type="wicri:explorRef" wicri:stream="PubMed" wicri:step="Corpus" wicri:corpus="PubMed">003424</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/PubMed/Curation">003311</idno><idno type="wicri:explorRef" wicri:stream="PubMed" wicri:step="Curation">003311</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/PubMed/Checkpoint">003311</idno><idno type="wicri:explorRef" wicri:stream="Checkpoint" wicri:step="PubMed">003311</idno></publicationStmt><sourceDesc><biblStruct><analytic><title xml:lang="en">Persistence and change in community composition of reef corals through present, past, and future climates.</title><author><name sortKey="Edmunds, Peter J" sort="Edmunds, Peter J" uniqKey="Edmunds P" first="Peter J" last="Edmunds">Peter J. Edmunds</name><affiliation wicri:level="2"><nlm:affiliation>Department of Biology, California State University Northridge, Northridge, California, United States of America.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country><wicri:regionArea>Department of Biology, California State University Northridge, Northridge, California</wicri:regionArea><placeName><region type="state">Californie</region></placeName></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Adjeroud, Mehdi" sort="Adjeroud, Mehdi" uniqKey="Adjeroud M" first="Mehdi" last="Adjeroud">Mehdi Adjeroud</name><affiliation wicri:level="3"><nlm:affiliation>Institut de Recherche pour le Développement, Unité de Recherche CoReUs, Observatoire Océanologique de Banyuls, Banyuls-sur-Mer, France; Laboratoire d'Excellence "CORAIL", Perpignan, France.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">France</country><wicri:regionArea>Institut de Recherche pour le Développement, Unité de Recherche CoReUs, Observatoire Océanologique de Banyuls, Banyuls-sur-Mer, France; Laboratoire d'Excellence "CORAIL", Perpignan</wicri:regionArea><placeName><region type="region">Occitanie (région administrative)</region><region type="old region">Languedoc-Roussillon</region><settlement type="city">Perpignan</settlement></placeName></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Baskett, Marissa L" sort="Baskett, Marissa L" uniqKey="Baskett M" first="Marissa L" last="Baskett">Marissa L. Baskett</name><affiliation wicri:level="2"><nlm:affiliation>Department of Environmental Science and Policy, University of California Davis, Davis, California, United States of America.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country><wicri:regionArea>Department of Environmental Science and Policy, University of California Davis, Davis, California</wicri:regionArea><placeName><region type="state">Californie</region></placeName></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Baums, Iliana B" sort="Baums, Iliana B" uniqKey="Baums I" first="Iliana B" last="Baums">Iliana B. Baums</name><affiliation wicri:level="4"><nlm:affiliation>Department of Biology, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, Pennsylvania, United States of America.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country><wicri:regionArea>Department of Biology, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, Pennsylvania</wicri:regionArea><placeName><region type="state">Pennsylvanie</region><settlement type="city">University Park (Pennsylvanie)</settlement></placeName><orgName type="university">Université d'État de Pennsylvanie</orgName></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Budd, Ann F" sort="Budd, Ann F" uniqKey="Budd A" first="Ann F" last="Budd">Ann F. Budd</name><affiliation wicri:level="4"><nlm:affiliation>Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Iowa, Iowa City, Iowa, United States of America.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country><wicri:regionArea>Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Iowa, Iowa City, Iowa</wicri:regionArea><placeName><region type="state">Iowa</region><settlement type="city">Iowa City</settlement></placeName><orgName type="university">Université de l'Iowa</orgName></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Carpenter, Robert C" sort="Carpenter, Robert C" uniqKey="Carpenter R" first="Robert C" last="Carpenter">Robert C. Carpenter</name><affiliation wicri:level="2"><nlm:affiliation>Department of Biology, California State University Northridge, Northridge, California, United States of America.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country><wicri:regionArea>Department of Biology, California State University Northridge, Northridge, California</wicri:regionArea><placeName><region type="state">Californie</region></placeName></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Fabina, Nicholas S" sort="Fabina, Nicholas S" uniqKey="Fabina N" first="Nicholas S" last="Fabina">Nicholas S. Fabina</name><affiliation wicri:level="2"><nlm:affiliation>Center for Population Biology, University of California Davis, Davis, California, United States of America.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country><wicri:regionArea>Center for Population Biology, University of California Davis, Davis, California</wicri:regionArea><placeName><region type="state">Californie</region></placeName></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Fan, Tung Yung" sort="Fan, Tung Yung" uniqKey="Fan T" first="Tung-Yung" last="Fan">Tung-Yung Fan</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>National Museum of Marine Biology and Aquarium, Taiwan, Republic of China.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country><wicri:regionArea>National Museum of Marine Biology and Aquarium, Taiwan</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Taiwan</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Franklin, Erik C" sort="Franklin, Erik C" uniqKey="Franklin E" first="Erik C" last="Franklin">Erik C. Franklin</name><affiliation wicri:level="2"><nlm:affiliation>Hawaii Institute of Marine Biology, School of Ocean and Earth Science and Technology, University of Hawaii, Kaneohe, Hawaii, United States of America.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country><wicri:regionArea>Hawaii Institute of Marine Biology, School of Ocean and Earth Science and Technology, University of Hawaii, Kaneohe, Hawaii</wicri:regionArea><placeName><region type="state">Hawaï</region></placeName></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Gross, Kevin" sort="Gross, Kevin" uniqKey="Gross K" first="Kevin" last="Gross">Kevin Gross</name><affiliation wicri:level="2"><nlm:affiliation>Biomathematics Program, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, North Carolina, United States of America.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country><wicri:regionArea>Biomathematics Program, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, North Carolina</wicri:regionArea><placeName><region type="state">Caroline du Nord</region></placeName></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Han, Xueying" sort="Han, Xueying" uniqKey="Han X" first="Xueying" last="Han">Xueying Han</name><affiliation wicri:level="4"><nlm:affiliation>Department of Ecology, Evolution and Marine Biology and the Coastal Research Center, Marine Science Institute, University of California Santa Barbara, Santa Barbara, California, United States of America; National Center for Ecological Analysis and Synthesis, Santa Barbara, California, United States of America.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country><wicri:regionArea>Department of Ecology, Evolution and Marine Biology and the Coastal Research Center, Marine Science Institute, University of California Santa Barbara, Santa Barbara, California, United States of America; National Center for Ecological Analysis and Synthesis, Santa Barbara, California</wicri:regionArea><placeName><region type="state">Californie</region><settlement type="city">Santa Barbara (Californie)</settlement></placeName><orgName type="university">Université de Californie à Santa Barbara</orgName></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Jacobson, Lianne" sort="Jacobson, Lianne" uniqKey="Jacobson L" first="Lianne" last="Jacobson">Lianne Jacobson</name><affiliation wicri:level="2"><nlm:affiliation>Department of Biology, California State University Northridge, Northridge, California, United States of America; Department of Biology, University of Florida, Gainesville, Florida, United States of America.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country><wicri:regionArea>Department of Biology, California State University Northridge, Northridge, California, United States of America; Department of Biology, University of Florida, Gainesville, Florida</wicri:regionArea><placeName><region type="state">Floride</region></placeName></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Klaus, James S" sort="Klaus, James S" uniqKey="Klaus J" first="James S" last="Klaus">James S. Klaus</name><affiliation wicri:level="2"><nlm:affiliation>Department of Geological Sciences, University of Miami, Coral Gables, Florida, United States of America.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country><wicri:regionArea>Department of Geological Sciences, University of Miami, Coral Gables, Florida</wicri:regionArea><placeName><region type="state">Floride</region></placeName></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Mcclanahan, Tim R" sort="Mcclanahan, Tim R" uniqKey="Mcclanahan T" first="Tim R" last="Mcclanahan">Tim R. Mcclanahan</name><affiliation wicri:level="2"><nlm:affiliation>Wildlife Conservation Society, Marine Program, Bronx, New York, United States of America.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country><wicri:regionArea>Wildlife Conservation Society, Marine Program, Bronx, New York</wicri:regionArea><placeName><region type="state">État de New York</region></placeName></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="O Leary, Jennifer K" sort="O Leary, Jennifer K" uniqKey="O Leary J" first="Jennifer K" last="O'Leary">Jennifer K. O'Leary</name><affiliation wicri:level="2"><nlm:affiliation>National Center for Ecological Analysis and Synthesis, Santa Barbara, California, United States of America.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country><wicri:regionArea>National Center for Ecological Analysis and Synthesis, Santa Barbara, California</wicri:regionArea><placeName><region type="state">Californie</region></placeName></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Van Oppen, Madeleine J H" sort="Van Oppen, Madeleine J H" uniqKey="Van Oppen M" first="Madeleine J H" last="Van Oppen">Madeleine J H. Van Oppen</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>Australian Institute of Marine Science, Townsville, Queensland, Australia.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">Australie</country><wicri:regionArea>Australian Institute of Marine Science, Townsville, Queensland</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Queensland</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Pochon, Xavier" sort="Pochon, Xavier" uniqKey="Pochon X" first="Xavier" last="Pochon">Xavier Pochon</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>The Cawthron Institute, Nelson, New Zealand.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">Nouvelle-Zélande</country><wicri:regionArea>The Cawthron Institute, Nelson</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Nelson</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Putnam, Hollie M" sort="Putnam, Hollie M" uniqKey="Putnam H" first="Hollie M" last="Putnam">Hollie M. Putnam</name><affiliation wicri:level="2"><nlm:affiliation>Hawaii Institute of Marine Biology, School of Ocean and Earth Science and Technology, University of Hawaii, Kaneohe, Hawaii, United States of America.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country><wicri:regionArea>Hawaii Institute of Marine Biology, School of Ocean and Earth Science and Technology, University of Hawaii, Kaneohe, Hawaii</wicri:regionArea><placeName><region type="state">Hawaï</region></placeName></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Smith, Tyler B" sort="Smith, Tyler B" uniqKey="Smith T" first="Tyler B" last="Smith">Tyler B. Smith</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>Center for Marine and Environmental Studies, University of the Virgin Islands, St. Thomas, Virgin Islands, United States of America.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country><wicri:regionArea>Center for Marine and Environmental Studies, University of the Virgin Islands, St. Thomas, Virgin Islands</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Virgin Islands</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Stat, Michael" sort="Stat, Michael" uniqKey="Stat M" first="Michael" last="Stat">Michael Stat</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>The University of Western Australia Oceans Institute and the Centre for Microscopy, Characterisation and Analysis, University of Western Australia, Crawley, Western Australia, Australia.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">Australie</country><wicri:regionArea>The University of Western Australia Oceans Institute and the Centre for Microscopy, Characterisation and Analysis, University of Western Australia, Crawley, Western Australia</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Western Australia</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Sweatman, Hugh" sort="Sweatman, Hugh" uniqKey="Sweatman H" first="Hugh" last="Sweatman">Hugh Sweatman</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>Australian Institute of Marine Science, Townsville, Queensland, Australia.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">Australie</country><wicri:regionArea>Australian Institute of Marine Science, Townsville, Queensland</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Queensland</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Van Woesik, Robert" sort="Van Woesik, Robert" uniqKey="Van Woesik R" first="Robert" last="Van Woesik">Robert Van Woesik</name><affiliation wicri:level="2"><nlm:affiliation>Department of Biological Sciences, Florida Institute of Technology, Melbourne, Florida, United States of America.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country><wicri:regionArea>Department of Biological Sciences, Florida Institute of Technology, Melbourne, Florida</wicri:regionArea><placeName><region type="state">Floride</region></placeName></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Gates, Ruth D" sort="Gates, Ruth D" uniqKey="Gates R" first="Ruth D" last="Gates">Ruth D. Gates</name><affiliation wicri:level="2"><nlm:affiliation>Hawaii Institute of Marine Biology, School of Ocean and Earth Science and Technology, University of Hawaii, Kaneohe, Hawaii, United States of America.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country><wicri:regionArea>Hawaii Institute of Marine Biology, School of Ocean and Earth Science and Technology, University of Hawaii, Kaneohe, Hawaii</wicri:regionArea><placeName><region type="state">Hawaï</region></placeName></affiliation></author></analytic><series><title level="j">PloS one</title><idno type="eISSN">1932-6203</idno><imprint><date when="2014" type="published">2014</date></imprint></series></biblStruct></sourceDesc></fileDesc><profileDesc><textClass><keywords scheme="KwdEn" xml:lang="en"><term>Animals</term><term>Anthozoa</term><term>Biodiversity</term><term>Climate</term><term>Coral Reefs</term><term>Ecosystem</term><term>Models, Theoretical</term><term>Population Density</term></keywords><keywords scheme="KwdFr" xml:lang="fr"><term>Animaux</term><term>Anthozoa</term><term>Biodiversité</term><term>Climat</term><term>Densité de population</term><term>Modèles théoriques</term><term>Récifs de corail</term><term>Écosystème</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" xml:lang="en"><term>Animals</term><term>Anthozoa</term><term>Biodiversity</term><term>Climate</term><term>Coral Reefs</term><term>Ecosystem</term><term>Models, Theoretical</term><term>Population Density</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" xml:lang="fr"><term>Animaux</term><term>Anthozoa</term><term>Biodiversité</term><term>Climat</term><term>Densité de population</term><term>Modèles théoriques</term><term>Récifs de corail</term><term>Écosystème</term></keywords></textClass></profileDesc></teiHeader><front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en">The reduction in coral cover on many contemporary tropical reefs suggests a different set of coral community assemblages will dominate future reefs. To evaluate the capacity of reef corals to persist over various time scales, we examined coral community dynamics in contemporary, fossil, and simulated future coral reef ecosystems. Based on studies between 1987 and 2012 at two locations in the Caribbean, and between 1981 and 2013 at five locations in the Indo-Pacific, we show that many coral genera declined in abundance, some showed no change in abundance, and a few coral genera increased in abundance. Whether the abundance of a genus declined, increased, or was conserved, was independent of coral family. An analysis of fossil-reef communities in the Caribbean revealed changes in numerical dominance and relative abundances of coral genera, and demonstrated that neither dominance nor taxon was associated with persistence. As coral family was a poor predictor of performance on contemporary reefs, a trait-based, dynamic, multi-patch model was developed to explore the phenotypic basis of ecological performance in a warmer future. Sensitivity analyses revealed that upon exposure to thermal stress, thermal tolerance, growth rate, and longevity were the most important predictors of coral persistence. Together, our results underscore the high variation in the rates and direction of change in coral abundances on contemporary and fossil reefs. Given this variation, it remains possible that coral reefs will be populated by a subset of the present coral fauna in a future that is warmer than the recent past.</div></front></TEI><pubmed><MedlineCitation Status="MEDLINE" Owner="NLM"><PMID Version="1">25272143</PMID><DateCreated><Year>2014</Year><Month>10</Month><Day>02</Day></DateCreated><DateCompleted><Year>2015</Year><Month>06</Month><Day>10</Day></DateCompleted><DateRevised><Year>2017</Year><Month>02</Month><Day>20</Day></DateRevised><Article PubModel="Electronic-eCollection"><Journal><ISSN IssnType="Electronic">1932-6203</ISSN><JournalIssue CitedMedium="Internet"><Volume>9</Volume><Issue>10</Issue><PubDate><Year>2014</Year></PubDate></JournalIssue><Title>PloS one</Title><ISOAbbreviation>PLoS ONE</ISOAbbreviation></Journal><ArticleTitle>Persistence and change in community composition of reef corals through present, past, and future climates.</ArticleTitle><Pagination><MedlinePgn>e107525</MedlinePgn></Pagination><ELocationID EIdType="doi" ValidYN="Y">10.1371/journal.pone.0107525</ELocationID><Abstract><AbstractText>The reduction in coral cover on many contemporary tropical reefs suggests a different set of coral community assemblages will dominate future reefs. To evaluate the capacity of reef corals to persist over various time scales, we examined coral community dynamics in contemporary, fossil, and simulated future coral reef ecosystems. Based on studies between 1987 and 2012 at two locations in the Caribbean, and between 1981 and 2013 at five locations in the Indo-Pacific, we show that many coral genera declined in abundance, some showed no change in abundance, and a few coral genera increased in abundance. Whether the abundance of a genus declined, increased, or was conserved, was independent of coral family. An analysis of fossil-reef communities in the Caribbean revealed changes in numerical dominance and relative abundances of coral genera, and demonstrated that neither dominance nor taxon was associated with persistence. As coral family was a poor predictor of performance on contemporary reefs, a trait-based, dynamic, multi-patch model was developed to explore the phenotypic basis of ecological performance in a warmer future. Sensitivity analyses revealed that upon exposure to thermal stress, thermal tolerance, growth rate, and longevity were the most important predictors of coral persistence. Together, our results underscore the high variation in the rates and direction of change in coral abundances on contemporary and fossil reefs. Given this variation, it remains possible that coral reefs will be populated by a subset of the present coral fauna in a future that is warmer than the recent past.</AbstractText></Abstract><AuthorList CompleteYN="Y"><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Edmunds</LastName><ForeName>Peter J</ForeName><Initials>PJ</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Department of Biology, California State University Northridge, Northridge, California, United States of America.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Adjeroud</LastName><ForeName>Mehdi</ForeName><Initials>M</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Institut de Recherche pour le Développement, Unité de Recherche CoReUs, Observatoire Océanologique de Banyuls, Banyuls-sur-Mer, France; Laboratoire d'Excellence "CORAIL", Perpignan, France.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Baskett</LastName><ForeName>Marissa L</ForeName><Initials>ML</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Department of Environmental Science and Policy, University of California Davis, Davis, California, United States of America.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Baums</LastName><ForeName>Iliana B</ForeName><Initials>IB</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Department of Biology, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, Pennsylvania, United States of America.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Budd</LastName><ForeName>Ann F</ForeName><Initials>AF</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Iowa, Iowa City, Iowa, United States of America.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Carpenter</LastName><ForeName>Robert C</ForeName><Initials>RC</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Department of Biology, California State University Northridge, Northridge, California, United States of America.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Fabina</LastName><ForeName>Nicholas S</ForeName><Initials>NS</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Center for Population Biology, University of California Davis, Davis, California, United States of America.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Fan</LastName><ForeName>Tung-Yung</ForeName><Initials>TY</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>National Museum of Marine Biology and Aquarium, Taiwan, Republic of China.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Franklin</LastName><ForeName>Erik C</ForeName><Initials>EC</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Hawaii Institute of Marine Biology, School of Ocean and Earth Science and Technology, University of Hawaii, Kaneohe, Hawaii, United States of America.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Gross</LastName><ForeName>Kevin</ForeName><Initials>K</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Biomathematics Program, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, North Carolina, United States of America.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Han</LastName><ForeName>Xueying</ForeName><Initials>X</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Department of Ecology, Evolution and Marine Biology and the Coastal Research Center, Marine Science Institute, University of California Santa Barbara, Santa Barbara, California, United States of America; National Center for Ecological Analysis and Synthesis, Santa Barbara, California, United States of America.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Jacobson</LastName><ForeName>Lianne</ForeName><Initials>L</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Department of Biology, California State University Northridge, Northridge, California, United States of America; Department of Biology, University of Florida, Gainesville, Florida, United States of America.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Klaus</LastName><ForeName>James S</ForeName><Initials>JS</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Department of Geological Sciences, University of Miami, Coral Gables, Florida, United States of America.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>McClanahan</LastName><ForeName>Tim R</ForeName><Initials>TR</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Wildlife Conservation Society, Marine Program, Bronx, New York, United States of America.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>O'Leary</LastName><ForeName>Jennifer K</ForeName><Initials>JK</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>National Center for Ecological Analysis and Synthesis, Santa Barbara, California, United States of America.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>van Oppen</LastName><ForeName>Madeleine J H</ForeName><Initials>MJ</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Australian Institute of Marine Science, Townsville, Queensland, Australia.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Pochon</LastName><ForeName>Xavier</ForeName><Initials>X</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>The Cawthron Institute, Nelson, New Zealand.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Putnam</LastName><ForeName>Hollie M</ForeName><Initials>HM</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Hawaii Institute of Marine Biology, School of Ocean and Earth Science and Technology, University of Hawaii, Kaneohe, Hawaii, United States of America.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Smith</LastName><ForeName>Tyler B</ForeName><Initials>TB</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Center for Marine and Environmental Studies, University of the Virgin Islands, St. Thomas, Virgin Islands, United States of America.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Stat</LastName><ForeName>Michael</ForeName><Initials>M</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>The University of Western Australia Oceans Institute and the Centre for Microscopy, Characterisation and Analysis, University of Western Australia, Crawley, Western Australia, Australia.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Sweatman</LastName><ForeName>Hugh</ForeName><Initials>H</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Australian Institute of Marine Science, Townsville, Queensland, Australia.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>van Woesik</LastName><ForeName>Robert</ForeName><Initials>R</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Department of Biological Sciences, Florida Institute of Technology, Melbourne, Florida, United States of America.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Gates</LastName><ForeName>Ruth D</ForeName><Initials>RD</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Hawaii Institute of Marine Biology, School of Ocean and Earth Science and Technology, University of Hawaii, Kaneohe, Hawaii, United States of America.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author></AuthorList><Language>eng</Language><PublicationTypeList><PublicationType UI="D016428">Journal Article</PublicationType><PublicationType UI="D013485">Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't</PublicationType><PublicationType UI="D013486">Research Support, U.S. Gov't, Non-P.H.S.</PublicationType></PublicationTypeList><ArticleDate DateType="Electronic"><Year>2014</Year><Month>10</Month><Day>01</Day></ArticleDate></Article><MedlineJournalInfo><Country>United States</Country><MedlineTA>PLoS One</MedlineTA><NlmUniqueID>101285081</NlmUniqueID><ISSNLinking>1932-6203</ISSNLinking></MedlineJournalInfo><CitationSubset>IM</CitationSubset><CommentsCorrectionsList><CommentsCorrections RefType="Cites"><RefSource>Ecol Lett. 2012 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UI="D017753" MajorTopicYN="N">Ecosystem</DescriptorName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D008962" MajorTopicYN="N">Models, Theoretical</DescriptorName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D011156" MajorTopicYN="N">Population Density</DescriptorName></MeshHeading></MeshHeadingList><OtherID Source="NLM">PMC4182679</OtherID></MedlineCitation><PubmedData><History><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="received"><Year>2013</Year><Month>05</Month><Day>21</Day></PubMedPubDate><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="accepted"><Year>2014</Year><Month>08</Month><Day>20</Day></PubMedPubDate><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="entrez"><Year>2014</Year><Month>10</Month><Day>2</Day><Hour>6</Hour><Minute>0</Minute></PubMedPubDate><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="pubmed"><Year>2014</Year><Month>10</Month><Day>2</Day><Hour>6</Hour><Minute>0</Minute></PubMedPubDate><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="medline"><Year>2015</Year><Month>6</Month><Day>11</Day><Hour>6</Hour><Minute>0</Minute></PubMedPubDate></History><PublicationStatus>epublish</PublicationStatus><ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">25272143</ArticleId><ArticleId IdType="doi">10.1371/journal.pone.0107525</ArticleId><ArticleId IdType="pii">PONE-D-13-21037</ArticleId><ArticleId IdType="pmc">PMC4182679</ArticleId></ArticleIdList></PubmedData></pubmed><affiliations><list><country><li>Australie</li><li>France</li><li>Nouvelle-Zélande</li><li>République populaire de Chine</li><li>États-Unis</li></country><region><li>Californie</li><li>Caroline du Nord</li><li>Floride</li><li>Hawaï</li><li>Iowa</li><li>Languedoc-Roussillon</li><li>Occitanie (région administrative)</li><li>Pennsylvanie</li><li>État de New York</li></region><settlement><li>Iowa City</li><li>Perpignan</li><li>Santa Barbara (Californie)</li><li>University Park (Pennsylvanie)</li></settlement><orgName><li>Université d'État de Pennsylvanie</li><li>Université de Californie à Santa Barbara</li><li>Université de l'Iowa</li></orgName></list><tree><country name="États-Unis"><region name="Californie"><name sortKey="Edmunds, Peter J" sort="Edmunds, Peter J" uniqKey="Edmunds P" first="Peter J" last="Edmunds">Peter J. Edmunds</name></region><name sortKey="Baskett, Marissa L" sort="Baskett, Marissa L" uniqKey="Baskett M" first="Marissa L" last="Baskett">Marissa L. Baskett</name><name sortKey="Baums, Iliana B" sort="Baums, Iliana B" uniqKey="Baums I" first="Iliana B" last="Baums">Iliana B. Baums</name><name sortKey="Budd, Ann F" sort="Budd, Ann F" uniqKey="Budd A" first="Ann F" last="Budd">Ann F. Budd</name><name sortKey="Carpenter, Robert C" sort="Carpenter, Robert C" uniqKey="Carpenter R" first="Robert C" last="Carpenter">Robert C. Carpenter</name><name sortKey="Fabina, Nicholas S" sort="Fabina, Nicholas S" uniqKey="Fabina N" first="Nicholas S" last="Fabina">Nicholas S. Fabina</name><name sortKey="Franklin, Erik C" sort="Franklin, Erik C" uniqKey="Franklin E" first="Erik C" last="Franklin">Erik C. Franklin</name><name sortKey="Gates, Ruth D" sort="Gates, Ruth D" uniqKey="Gates R" first="Ruth D" last="Gates">Ruth D. Gates</name><name sortKey="Gross, Kevin" sort="Gross, Kevin" uniqKey="Gross K" first="Kevin" last="Gross">Kevin Gross</name><name sortKey="Han, Xueying" sort="Han, Xueying" uniqKey="Han X" first="Xueying" last="Han">Xueying Han</name><name sortKey="Jacobson, Lianne" sort="Jacobson, Lianne" uniqKey="Jacobson L" first="Lianne" last="Jacobson">Lianne Jacobson</name><name sortKey="Klaus, James S" sort="Klaus, James S" uniqKey="Klaus J" first="James S" last="Klaus">James S. Klaus</name><name sortKey="Mcclanahan, Tim R" sort="Mcclanahan, Tim R" uniqKey="Mcclanahan T" first="Tim R" last="Mcclanahan">Tim R. Mcclanahan</name><name sortKey="O Leary, Jennifer K" sort="O Leary, Jennifer K" uniqKey="O Leary J" first="Jennifer K" last="O'Leary">Jennifer K. O'Leary</name><name sortKey="Putnam, Hollie M" sort="Putnam, Hollie M" uniqKey="Putnam H" first="Hollie M" last="Putnam">Hollie M. Putnam</name><name sortKey="Smith, Tyler B" sort="Smith, Tyler B" uniqKey="Smith T" first="Tyler B" last="Smith">Tyler B. Smith</name><name sortKey="Van Woesik, Robert" sort="Van Woesik, Robert" uniqKey="Van Woesik R" first="Robert" last="Van Woesik">Robert Van Woesik</name></country><country name="France"><region name="Occitanie (région administrative)"><name sortKey="Adjeroud, Mehdi" sort="Adjeroud, Mehdi" uniqKey="Adjeroud M" first="Mehdi" last="Adjeroud">Mehdi Adjeroud</name></region></country><country name="République populaire de Chine"><noRegion><name sortKey="Fan, Tung Yung" sort="Fan, Tung Yung" uniqKey="Fan T" first="Tung-Yung" last="Fan">Tung-Yung Fan</name></noRegion></country><country name="Australie"><noRegion><name sortKey="Van Oppen, Madeleine J H" sort="Van Oppen, Madeleine J H" uniqKey="Van Oppen M" first="Madeleine J H" last="Van Oppen">Madeleine J H. Van Oppen</name></noRegion><name sortKey="Stat, Michael" sort="Stat, Michael" uniqKey="Stat M" first="Michael" last="Stat">Michael Stat</name><name sortKey="Sweatman, Hugh" sort="Sweatman, Hugh" uniqKey="Sweatman H" first="Hugh" last="Sweatman">Hugh Sweatman</name></country><country name="Nouvelle-Zélande"><noRegion><name sortKey="Pochon, Xavier" sort="Pochon, Xavier" uniqKey="Pochon X" first="Xavier" last="Pochon">Xavier Pochon</name></noRegion></country></tree></affiliations></record>Pour manipuler ce document sous Unix (Dilib)
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