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Feasibility of achieving the 2025 WHO global tuberculosis targets in South Africa, China, and India: a combined analysis of 11 mathematical models.

Identifieur interne : 003C82 ( Ncbi/Merge ); précédent : 003C81; suivant : 003C83

Feasibility of achieving the 2025 WHO global tuberculosis targets in South Africa, China, and India: a combined analysis of 11 mathematical models.

Auteurs : Rein M G J. Houben [Royaume-Uni] ; Nicolas A. Menzies [États-Unis] ; Tom Sumner [Royaume-Uni] ; Grace H. Huynh [États-Unis] ; Nimalan Arinaminpathy [Inde] ; Jeremy D. Goldhaber-Fiebert [États-Unis] ; Hsien-Ho Lin [Taïwan] ; Chieh-Yin Wu [Taïwan] ; Sandip Mandal [Inde] ; Surabhi Pandey [Inde] ; Sze-Chuan Suen [États-Unis] ; Eran Bendavid [États-Unis] ; Andrew S. Azman [États-Unis] ; David W. Dowdy [États-Unis] ; Nicolas Bacaër [France] ; Allison S. Rhines [États-Unis] ; Marcus W. Feldman [États-Unis] ; Andreas Handel [États-Unis] ; Christopher C. Whalen [États-Unis] ; Stewart T. Chang [États-Unis] ; Bradley G. Wagner [États-Unis] ; Philip A. Eckhoff [États-Unis] ; James M. Trauer [Australie] ; Justin T. Denholm [Australie] ; Emma S. Mcbryde [Australie] ; Ted Cohen [États-Unis] ; Joshua A. Salomon [États-Unis] ; Carel Pretorius [États-Unis] ; Marek Lalli [Royaume-Uni] ; Jeffrey W. Eaton [Royaume-Uni] ; Delia Boccia [Royaume-Uni] ; Mehran Hosseini [Suisse] ; Gabriela B. Gomez [Pays-Bas] ; Suvanand Sahu [Suisse] ; Colleen Daniels [Suisse] ; Lucica Ditiu [Suisse] ; Daniel P. Chin [République populaire de Chine] ; Lixia Wang [République populaire de Chine] ; Vineet K. Chadha [Inde] ; Kiran Rade [Inde] ; Puneet Dewan [Inde] ; Piotr Hippner [Afrique du Sud] ; Salome Charalambous [Afrique du Sud] ; Alison D. Grant [Royaume-Uni] ; Gavin Churchyard [Afrique du Sud] ; Yogan Pillay [Afrique du Sud] ; L David Mametja [Afrique du Sud] ; Michael E. Kimerling [Pays-Bas] ; Anna Vassall [Royaume-Uni] ; Richard G. White [Royaume-Uni]

Source :

RBID : pubmed:27720688

Abstract

The post-2015 End TB Strategy proposes targets of 50% reduction in tuberculosis incidence and 75% reduction in mortality from tuberculosis by 2025. We aimed to assess whether these targets are feasible in three high-burden countries with contrasting epidemiology and previous programmatic achievements.

DOI: 10.1016/S2214-109X(16)30199-1
PubMed: 27720688

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pubmed:27720688

Le document en format XML

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<name sortKey="Houben, Rein M G J" sort="Houben, Rein M G J" uniqKey="Houben R" first="Rein M G J" last="Houben">Rein M G J. Houben</name>
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<nlm:affiliation>TB Modelling Group, TB Centre, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK; Faculty of Epidemiology and Public Health, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK. Electronic address: rein.houben@lshtm.ac.uk.</nlm:affiliation>
<country xml:lang="fr">Royaume-Uni</country>
<wicri:regionArea>TB Modelling Group, TB Centre, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK; Faculty of Epidemiology and Public Health, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London</wicri:regionArea>
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<wicri:regionArea>Department of Global Health and Population, Harvard TH Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA</wicri:regionArea>
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<name sortKey="Huynh, Grace H" sort="Huynh, Grace H" uniqKey="Huynh G" first="Grace H" last="Huynh">Grace H. Huynh</name>
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<name sortKey="Arinaminpathy, Nimalan" sort="Arinaminpathy, Nimalan" uniqKey="Arinaminpathy N" first="Nimalan" last="Arinaminpathy">Nimalan Arinaminpathy</name>
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<nlm:affiliation>Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, London, UK; Public Health Foundation of India, Delhi NCR, India.</nlm:affiliation>
<country xml:lang="fr">Inde</country>
<wicri:regionArea>Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, London, UK; Public Health Foundation of India, Delhi NCR</wicri:regionArea>
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<name sortKey="Goldhaber Fiebert, Jeremy D" sort="Goldhaber Fiebert, Jeremy D" uniqKey="Goldhaber Fiebert J" first="Jeremy D" last="Goldhaber-Fiebert">Jeremy D. Goldhaber-Fiebert</name>
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<nlm:affiliation>Stanford Health Policy, Centers for Health Policy and Primary Care and Outcomes Research, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, USA.</nlm:affiliation>
<country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country>
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<region type="state">Californie</region>
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<name sortKey="Lin, Hsien Ho" sort="Lin, Hsien Ho" uniqKey="Lin H" first="Hsien-Ho" last="Lin">Hsien-Ho Lin</name>
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<nlm:affiliation>Institute of Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan.</nlm:affiliation>
<country xml:lang="fr">Taïwan</country>
<wicri:regionArea>Institute of Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine, National Taiwan University, Taipei</wicri:regionArea>
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<name sortKey="Wu, Chieh Yin" sort="Wu, Chieh Yin" uniqKey="Wu C" first="Chieh-Yin" last="Wu">Chieh-Yin Wu</name>
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<nlm:affiliation>Institute of Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan.</nlm:affiliation>
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<name sortKey="Mandal, Sandip" sort="Mandal, Sandip" uniqKey="Mandal S" first="Sandip" last="Mandal">Sandip Mandal</name>
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<nlm:affiliation>Public Health Foundation of India, Delhi NCR, India.</nlm:affiliation>
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<name sortKey="Pandey, Surabhi" sort="Pandey, Surabhi" uniqKey="Pandey S" first="Surabhi" last="Pandey">Surabhi Pandey</name>
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<nlm:affiliation>Public Health Foundation of India, Delhi NCR, India.</nlm:affiliation>
<country xml:lang="fr">Inde</country>
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<wicri:noRegion>Delhi NCR</wicri:noRegion>
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<name sortKey="Suen, Sze Chuan" sort="Suen, Sze Chuan" uniqKey="Suen S" first="Sze-Chuan" last="Suen">Sze-Chuan Suen</name>
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<nlm:affiliation>Management Science and Engineering Dept, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, USA.</nlm:affiliation>
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<region type="state">Californie</region>
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<author>
<name sortKey="Bendavid, Eran" sort="Bendavid, Eran" uniqKey="Bendavid E" first="Eran" last="Bendavid">Eran Bendavid</name>
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<nlm:affiliation>Department of Medicine, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, USA.</nlm:affiliation>
<country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country>
<wicri:regionArea>Department of Medicine, Stanford University, Stanford, CA</wicri:regionArea>
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<region type="state">Californie</region>
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<name sortKey="Azman, Andrew S" sort="Azman, Andrew S" uniqKey="Azman A" first="Andrew S" last="Azman">Andrew S. Azman</name>
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<nlm:affiliation>Department of Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, MD, USA.</nlm:affiliation>
<country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country>
<wicri:regionArea>Department of Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, MD</wicri:regionArea>
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<region type="state">Maryland</region>
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<name sortKey="Dowdy, David W" sort="Dowdy, David W" uniqKey="Dowdy D" first="David W" last="Dowdy">David W. Dowdy</name>
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<nlm:affiliation>Department of Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, MD, USA.</nlm:affiliation>
<country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country>
<wicri:regionArea>Department of Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, MD</wicri:regionArea>
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<name sortKey="Bacaer, Nicolas" sort="Bacaer, Nicolas" uniqKey="Bacaer N" first="Nicolas" last="Bacaër">Nicolas Bacaër</name>
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<nlm:affiliation>IRD, UMMISCO, Bondy, France.</nlm:affiliation>
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<name sortKey="Rhines, Allison S" sort="Rhines, Allison S" uniqKey="Rhines A" first="Allison S" last="Rhines">Allison S. Rhines</name>
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<nlm:affiliation>Department of Biology, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, USA; Johnson & Johnson Global Public Health, Raritan, NJ, USA.</nlm:affiliation>
<country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country>
<wicri:regionArea>Department of Biology, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, USA; Johnson & Johnson Global Public Health, Raritan, NJ</wicri:regionArea>
<placeName>
<region type="state">New Jersey</region>
</placeName>
</affiliation>
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<author>
<name sortKey="Feldman, Marcus W" sort="Feldman, Marcus W" uniqKey="Feldman M" first="Marcus W" last="Feldman">Marcus W. Feldman</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="2">
<nlm:affiliation>Department of Biology, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, USA.</nlm:affiliation>
<country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country>
<wicri:regionArea>Department of Biology, Stanford University, Stanford, CA</wicri:regionArea>
<placeName>
<region type="state">Californie</region>
</placeName>
</affiliation>
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<name sortKey="Handel, Andreas" sort="Handel, Andreas" uniqKey="Handel A" first="Andreas" last="Handel">Andreas Handel</name>
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<nlm:affiliation>Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, College of Public Health, University of Georgia, Athens, GA, USA.</nlm:affiliation>
<country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country>
<wicri:regionArea>Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, College of Public Health, University of Georgia, Athens, GA</wicri:regionArea>
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<name sortKey="Whalen, Christopher C" sort="Whalen, Christopher C" uniqKey="Whalen C" first="Christopher C" last="Whalen">Christopher C. Whalen</name>
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<nlm:affiliation>Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, College of Public Health, University of Georgia, Athens, GA, USA.</nlm:affiliation>
<country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country>
<wicri:regionArea>Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, College of Public Health, University of Georgia, Athens, GA</wicri:regionArea>
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<name sortKey="Chang, Stewart T" sort="Chang, Stewart T" uniqKey="Chang S" first="Stewart T" last="Chang">Stewart T. Chang</name>
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<nlm:affiliation>Institute for Disease Modeling, Seattle, WA, USA.</nlm:affiliation>
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<name sortKey="Wagner, Bradley G" sort="Wagner, Bradley G" uniqKey="Wagner B" first="Bradley G" last="Wagner">Bradley G. Wagner</name>
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<nlm:affiliation>Institute for Disease Modeling, Seattle, WA, USA.</nlm:affiliation>
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<author>
<name sortKey="Eckhoff, Philip A" sort="Eckhoff, Philip A" uniqKey="Eckhoff P" first="Philip A" last="Eckhoff">Philip A. Eckhoff</name>
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<nlm:affiliation>Institute for Disease Modeling, Seattle, WA, USA.</nlm:affiliation>
<country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country>
<wicri:regionArea>Institute for Disease Modeling, Seattle, WA</wicri:regionArea>
<placeName>
<region type="state">Washington (État)</region>
</placeName>
</affiliation>
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<name sortKey="Trauer, James M" sort="Trauer, James M" uniqKey="Trauer J" first="James M" last="Trauer">James M. Trauer</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="3">
<nlm:affiliation>The Burnet Institute, Melbourne, Australia; The Victorian Infectious Diseases Service, at the Peter Doherty Institute, Melbourne, Australia; Department of Microbiology and Immunology, the University of Melbourne at the Peter Doherty Institute, Melbourne, Australia.</nlm:affiliation>
<country xml:lang="fr">Australie</country>
<wicri:regionArea>The Burnet Institute, Melbourne, Australia; The Victorian Infectious Diseases Service, at the Peter Doherty Institute, Melbourne, Australia; Department of Microbiology and Immunology, the University of Melbourne at the Peter Doherty Institute, Melbourne</wicri:regionArea>
<placeName>
<settlement type="city">Melbourne</settlement>
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<name sortKey="Denholm, Justin T" sort="Denholm, Justin T" uniqKey="Denholm J" first="Justin T" last="Denholm">Justin T. Denholm</name>
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<nlm:affiliation>The Victorian Infectious Diseases Service, at the Peter Doherty Institute, Melbourne, Australia; Department of Microbiology and Immunology, the University of Melbourne at the Peter Doherty Institute, Melbourne, Australia.</nlm:affiliation>
<country xml:lang="fr">Australie</country>
<wicri:regionArea>The Victorian Infectious Diseases Service, at the Peter Doherty Institute, Melbourne, Australia; Department of Microbiology and Immunology, the University of Melbourne at the Peter Doherty Institute, Melbourne</wicri:regionArea>
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<settlement type="city">Melbourne</settlement>
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<author>
<name sortKey="Mcbryde, Emma S" sort="Mcbryde, Emma S" uniqKey="Mcbryde E" first="Emma S" last="Mcbryde">Emma S. Mcbryde</name>
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<nlm:affiliation>The Burnet Institute, Melbourne, Australia; The Victorian Infectious Diseases Service, at the Peter Doherty Institute, Melbourne, Australia; Department of Microbiology and Immunology, the University of Melbourne at the Peter Doherty Institute, Melbourne, Australia.</nlm:affiliation>
<country xml:lang="fr">Australie</country>
<wicri:regionArea>The Burnet Institute, Melbourne, Australia; The Victorian Infectious Diseases Service, at the Peter Doherty Institute, Melbourne, Australia; Department of Microbiology and Immunology, the University of Melbourne at the Peter Doherty Institute, Melbourne</wicri:regionArea>
<placeName>
<settlement type="city">Melbourne</settlement>
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</placeName>
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<author>
<name sortKey="Cohen, Ted" sort="Cohen, Ted" uniqKey="Cohen T" first="Ted" last="Cohen">Ted Cohen</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="2">
<nlm:affiliation>Department of Epidemiology of Microbial Diseases, Yale School of Public Health, New Haven, CT, USA.</nlm:affiliation>
<country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country>
<wicri:regionArea>Department of Epidemiology of Microbial Diseases, Yale School of Public Health, New Haven, CT</wicri:regionArea>
<placeName>
<region type="state">Connecticut</region>
</placeName>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author>
<name sortKey="Salomon, Joshua A" sort="Salomon, Joshua A" uniqKey="Salomon J" first="Joshua A" last="Salomon">Joshua A. Salomon</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="2">
<nlm:affiliation>Department of Global Health and Population, Harvard TH Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA, USA.</nlm:affiliation>
<country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country>
<wicri:regionArea>Department of Global Health and Population, Harvard TH Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA</wicri:regionArea>
<placeName>
<region type="state">Massachusetts</region>
</placeName>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author>
<name sortKey="Pretorius, Carel" sort="Pretorius, Carel" uniqKey="Pretorius C" first="Carel" last="Pretorius">Carel Pretorius</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="2">
<nlm:affiliation>Avenir Health, Glastonbury, CT, USA.</nlm:affiliation>
<country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country>
<wicri:regionArea>Avenir Health, Glastonbury, CT</wicri:regionArea>
<placeName>
<region type="state">Connecticut</region>
</placeName>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author>
<name sortKey="Lalli, Marek" sort="Lalli, Marek" uniqKey="Lalli M" first="Marek" last="Lalli">Marek Lalli</name>
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<nlm:affiliation>TB Modelling Group, TB Centre, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK; Faculty of Epidemiology and Public Health, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK.</nlm:affiliation>
<country xml:lang="fr">Royaume-Uni</country>
<wicri:regionArea>TB Modelling Group, TB Centre, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK; Faculty of Epidemiology and Public Health, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London</wicri:regionArea>
<placeName>
<settlement type="city">Londres</settlement>
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<region type="région" nuts="1">Grand Londres</region>
</placeName>
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</author>
<author>
<name sortKey="Eaton, Jeffrey W" sort="Eaton, Jeffrey W" uniqKey="Eaton J" first="Jeffrey W" last="Eaton">Jeffrey W. Eaton</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="3">
<nlm:affiliation>Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, London, UK.</nlm:affiliation>
<country xml:lang="fr">Royaume-Uni</country>
<wicri:regionArea>Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, London</wicri:regionArea>
<placeName>
<settlement type="city">Londres</settlement>
<region type="country">Angleterre</region>
<region type="région" nuts="1">Grand Londres</region>
</placeName>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author>
<name sortKey="Boccia, Delia" sort="Boccia, Delia" uniqKey="Boccia D" first="Delia" last="Boccia">Delia Boccia</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="3">
<nlm:affiliation>Faculty of Epidemiology and Public Health, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK.</nlm:affiliation>
<country xml:lang="fr">Royaume-Uni</country>
<wicri:regionArea>Faculty of Epidemiology and Public Health, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London</wicri:regionArea>
<placeName>
<settlement type="city">Londres</settlement>
<region type="country">Angleterre</region>
<region type="région" nuts="1">Grand Londres</region>
</placeName>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author>
<name sortKey="Hosseini, Mehran" sort="Hosseini, Mehran" uniqKey="Hosseini M" first="Mehran" last="Hosseini">Mehran Hosseini</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="1">
<nlm:affiliation>Strategic Information Department, The Global Fund, Geneva, Switzerland.</nlm:affiliation>
<country xml:lang="fr">Suisse</country>
<wicri:regionArea>Strategic Information Department, The Global Fund, Geneva</wicri:regionArea>
<wicri:noRegion>Geneva</wicri:noRegion>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author>
<name sortKey="Gomez, Gabriela B" sort="Gomez, Gabriela B" uniqKey="Gomez G" first="Gabriela B" last="Gomez">Gabriela B. Gomez</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="4">
<nlm:affiliation>Department of Global Health, University of Amsterdam, Amsterdam, Netherlands; Amsterdam Institute for Global Health and Development, Academic Medical Center, University of Amsterdam, Amsterdam, Netherlands.</nlm:affiliation>
<country xml:lang="fr">Pays-Bas</country>
<wicri:regionArea>Department of Global Health, University of Amsterdam, Amsterdam, Netherlands; Amsterdam Institute for Global Health and Development, Academic Medical Center, University of Amsterdam, Amsterdam</wicri:regionArea>
<placeName>
<settlement type="city">Amsterdam</settlement>
<region nuts="2" type="province">Hollande-Septentrionale</region>
<settlement type="city">Amsterdam</settlement>
</placeName>
<orgName type="university">Université d'Amsterdam</orgName>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author>
<name sortKey="Sahu, Suvanand" sort="Sahu, Suvanand" uniqKey="Sahu S" first="Suvanand" last="Sahu">Suvanand Sahu</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="1">
<nlm:affiliation>Stop TB Partnership, Geneva, Switzerland.</nlm:affiliation>
<country xml:lang="fr">Suisse</country>
<wicri:regionArea>Stop TB Partnership, Geneva</wicri:regionArea>
<wicri:noRegion>Geneva</wicri:noRegion>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author>
<name sortKey="Daniels, Colleen" sort="Daniels, Colleen" uniqKey="Daniels C" first="Colleen" last="Daniels">Colleen Daniels</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="1">
<nlm:affiliation>Stop TB Partnership, Geneva, Switzerland.</nlm:affiliation>
<country xml:lang="fr">Suisse</country>
<wicri:regionArea>Stop TB Partnership, Geneva</wicri:regionArea>
<wicri:noRegion>Geneva</wicri:noRegion>
</affiliation>
</author>
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<name sortKey="Ditiu, Lucica" sort="Ditiu, Lucica" uniqKey="Ditiu L" first="Lucica" last="Ditiu">Lucica Ditiu</name>
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<country xml:lang="fr">Afrique du Sud</country>
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<title xml:lang="en">Feasibility of achieving the 2025 WHO global tuberculosis targets in South Africa, China, and India: a combined analysis of 11 mathematical models.</title>
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<name sortKey="Houben, Rein M G J" sort="Houben, Rein M G J" uniqKey="Houben R" first="Rein M G J" last="Houben">Rein M G J. Houben</name>
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<nlm:affiliation>TB Modelling Group, TB Centre, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK; Faculty of Epidemiology and Public Health, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK. Electronic address: rein.houben@lshtm.ac.uk.</nlm:affiliation>
<country xml:lang="fr">Royaume-Uni</country>
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<name sortKey="Menzies, Nicolas A" sort="Menzies, Nicolas A" uniqKey="Menzies N" first="Nicolas A" last="Menzies">Nicolas A. Menzies</name>
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<country xml:lang="fr">Royaume-Uni</country>
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<name sortKey="Huynh, Grace H" sort="Huynh, Grace H" uniqKey="Huynh G" first="Grace H" last="Huynh">Grace H. Huynh</name>
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<nlm:affiliation>Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, London, UK; Public Health Foundation of India, Delhi NCR, India.</nlm:affiliation>
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<name sortKey="Lin, Hsien Ho" sort="Lin, Hsien Ho" uniqKey="Lin H" first="Hsien-Ho" last="Lin">Hsien-Ho Lin</name>
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<name sortKey="Mandal, Sandip" sort="Mandal, Sandip" uniqKey="Mandal S" first="Sandip" last="Mandal">Sandip Mandal</name>
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<name sortKey="Pandey, Surabhi" sort="Pandey, Surabhi" uniqKey="Pandey S" first="Surabhi" last="Pandey">Surabhi Pandey</name>
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<name sortKey="Suen, Sze Chuan" sort="Suen, Sze Chuan" uniqKey="Suen S" first="Sze-Chuan" last="Suen">Sze-Chuan Suen</name>
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<nlm:affiliation>Management Science and Engineering Dept, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, USA.</nlm:affiliation>
<country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country>
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<region type="state">Californie</region>
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<name sortKey="Bendavid, Eran" sort="Bendavid, Eran" uniqKey="Bendavid E" first="Eran" last="Bendavid">Eran Bendavid</name>
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<nlm:affiliation>Department of Medicine, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, USA.</nlm:affiliation>
<country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country>
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<region type="state">Californie</region>
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<author>
<name sortKey="Azman, Andrew S" sort="Azman, Andrew S" uniqKey="Azman A" first="Andrew S" last="Azman">Andrew S. Azman</name>
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<nlm:affiliation>Department of Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, MD, USA.</nlm:affiliation>
<country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country>
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<name sortKey="Dowdy, David W" sort="Dowdy, David W" uniqKey="Dowdy D" first="David W" last="Dowdy">David W. Dowdy</name>
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<nlm:affiliation>Department of Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, MD, USA.</nlm:affiliation>
<country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country>
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<name sortKey="Bacaer, Nicolas" sort="Bacaer, Nicolas" uniqKey="Bacaer N" first="Nicolas" last="Bacaër">Nicolas Bacaër</name>
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<nlm:affiliation>IRD, UMMISCO, Bondy, France.</nlm:affiliation>
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<nlm:affiliation>Department of Biology, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, USA.</nlm:affiliation>
<country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country>
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<name sortKey="Handel, Andreas" sort="Handel, Andreas" uniqKey="Handel A" first="Andreas" last="Handel">Andreas Handel</name>
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<nlm:affiliation>Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, College of Public Health, University of Georgia, Athens, GA, USA.</nlm:affiliation>
<country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country>
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<name sortKey="Chang, Stewart T" sort="Chang, Stewart T" uniqKey="Chang S" first="Stewart T" last="Chang">Stewart T. Chang</name>
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<name sortKey="Wagner, Bradley G" sort="Wagner, Bradley G" uniqKey="Wagner B" first="Bradley G" last="Wagner">Bradley G. Wagner</name>
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<name sortKey="Eckhoff, Philip A" sort="Eckhoff, Philip A" uniqKey="Eckhoff P" first="Philip A" last="Eckhoff">Philip A. Eckhoff</name>
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<nlm:affiliation>Institute for Disease Modeling, Seattle, WA, USA.</nlm:affiliation>
<country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country>
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<name sortKey="Trauer, James M" sort="Trauer, James M" uniqKey="Trauer J" first="James M" last="Trauer">James M. Trauer</name>
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<country xml:lang="fr">Australie</country>
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<name sortKey="Denholm, Justin T" sort="Denholm, Justin T" uniqKey="Denholm J" first="Justin T" last="Denholm">Justin T. Denholm</name>
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<country xml:lang="fr">Australie</country>
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</author>
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<name sortKey="Mcbryde, Emma S" sort="Mcbryde, Emma S" uniqKey="Mcbryde E" first="Emma S" last="Mcbryde">Emma S. Mcbryde</name>
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<nlm:affiliation>The Burnet Institute, Melbourne, Australia; The Victorian Infectious Diseases Service, at the Peter Doherty Institute, Melbourne, Australia; Department of Microbiology and Immunology, the University of Melbourne at the Peter Doherty Institute, Melbourne, Australia.</nlm:affiliation>
<country xml:lang="fr">Australie</country>
<wicri:regionArea>The Burnet Institute, Melbourne, Australia; The Victorian Infectious Diseases Service, at the Peter Doherty Institute, Melbourne, Australia; Department of Microbiology and Immunology, the University of Melbourne at the Peter Doherty Institute, Melbourne</wicri:regionArea>
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<settlement type="city">Melbourne</settlement>
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</placeName>
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<author>
<name sortKey="Cohen, Ted" sort="Cohen, Ted" uniqKey="Cohen T" first="Ted" last="Cohen">Ted Cohen</name>
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<country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country>
<wicri:regionArea>Department of Epidemiology of Microbial Diseases, Yale School of Public Health, New Haven, CT</wicri:regionArea>
<placeName>
<region type="state">Connecticut</region>
</placeName>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author>
<name sortKey="Salomon, Joshua A" sort="Salomon, Joshua A" uniqKey="Salomon J" first="Joshua A" last="Salomon">Joshua A. Salomon</name>
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<nlm:affiliation>Department of Global Health and Population, Harvard TH Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA, USA.</nlm:affiliation>
<country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country>
<wicri:regionArea>Department of Global Health and Population, Harvard TH Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA</wicri:regionArea>
<placeName>
<region type="state">Massachusetts</region>
</placeName>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author>
<name sortKey="Pretorius, Carel" sort="Pretorius, Carel" uniqKey="Pretorius C" first="Carel" last="Pretorius">Carel Pretorius</name>
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<nlm:affiliation>Avenir Health, Glastonbury, CT, USA.</nlm:affiliation>
<country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country>
<wicri:regionArea>Avenir Health, Glastonbury, CT</wicri:regionArea>
<placeName>
<region type="state">Connecticut</region>
</placeName>
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<name sortKey="Lalli, Marek" sort="Lalli, Marek" uniqKey="Lalli M" first="Marek" last="Lalli">Marek Lalli</name>
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<country xml:lang="fr">Royaume-Uni</country>
<wicri:regionArea>TB Modelling Group, TB Centre, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK; Faculty of Epidemiology and Public Health, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London</wicri:regionArea>
<placeName>
<settlement type="city">Londres</settlement>
<region type="country">Angleterre</region>
<region type="région" nuts="1">Grand Londres</region>
</placeName>
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<author>
<name sortKey="Eaton, Jeffrey W" sort="Eaton, Jeffrey W" uniqKey="Eaton J" first="Jeffrey W" last="Eaton">Jeffrey W. Eaton</name>
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<nlm:affiliation>Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, London, UK.</nlm:affiliation>
<country xml:lang="fr">Royaume-Uni</country>
<wicri:regionArea>Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, London</wicri:regionArea>
<placeName>
<settlement type="city">Londres</settlement>
<region type="country">Angleterre</region>
<region type="région" nuts="1">Grand Londres</region>
</placeName>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author>
<name sortKey="Boccia, Delia" sort="Boccia, Delia" uniqKey="Boccia D" first="Delia" last="Boccia">Delia Boccia</name>
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<nlm:affiliation>Faculty of Epidemiology and Public Health, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK.</nlm:affiliation>
<country xml:lang="fr">Royaume-Uni</country>
<wicri:regionArea>Faculty of Epidemiology and Public Health, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London</wicri:regionArea>
<placeName>
<settlement type="city">Londres</settlement>
<region type="country">Angleterre</region>
<region type="région" nuts="1">Grand Londres</region>
</placeName>
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<author>
<name sortKey="Hosseini, Mehran" sort="Hosseini, Mehran" uniqKey="Hosseini M" first="Mehran" last="Hosseini">Mehran Hosseini</name>
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<nlm:affiliation>Strategic Information Department, The Global Fund, Geneva, Switzerland.</nlm:affiliation>
<country xml:lang="fr">Suisse</country>
<wicri:regionArea>Strategic Information Department, The Global Fund, Geneva</wicri:regionArea>
<wicri:noRegion>Geneva</wicri:noRegion>
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</author>
<author>
<name sortKey="Gomez, Gabriela B" sort="Gomez, Gabriela B" uniqKey="Gomez G" first="Gabriela B" last="Gomez">Gabriela B. Gomez</name>
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<nlm:affiliation>Department of Global Health, University of Amsterdam, Amsterdam, Netherlands; Amsterdam Institute for Global Health and Development, Academic Medical Center, University of Amsterdam, Amsterdam, Netherlands.</nlm:affiliation>
<country xml:lang="fr">Pays-Bas</country>
<wicri:regionArea>Department of Global Health, University of Amsterdam, Amsterdam, Netherlands; Amsterdam Institute for Global Health and Development, Academic Medical Center, University of Amsterdam, Amsterdam</wicri:regionArea>
<placeName>
<settlement type="city">Amsterdam</settlement>
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<settlement type="city">Amsterdam</settlement>
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<author>
<name sortKey="Sahu, Suvanand" sort="Sahu, Suvanand" uniqKey="Sahu S" first="Suvanand" last="Sahu">Suvanand Sahu</name>
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<nlm:affiliation>Stop TB Partnership, Geneva, Switzerland.</nlm:affiliation>
<country xml:lang="fr">Suisse</country>
<wicri:regionArea>Stop TB Partnership, Geneva</wicri:regionArea>
<wicri:noRegion>Geneva</wicri:noRegion>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author>
<name sortKey="Daniels, Colleen" sort="Daniels, Colleen" uniqKey="Daniels C" first="Colleen" last="Daniels">Colleen Daniels</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="1">
<nlm:affiliation>Stop TB Partnership, Geneva, Switzerland.</nlm:affiliation>
<country xml:lang="fr">Suisse</country>
<wicri:regionArea>Stop TB Partnership, Geneva</wicri:regionArea>
<wicri:noRegion>Geneva</wicri:noRegion>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author>
<name sortKey="Ditiu, Lucica" sort="Ditiu, Lucica" uniqKey="Ditiu L" first="Lucica" last="Ditiu">Lucica Ditiu</name>
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<nlm:affiliation>Stop TB Partnership, Geneva, Switzerland.</nlm:affiliation>
<country xml:lang="fr">Suisse</country>
<wicri:regionArea>Stop TB Partnership, Geneva</wicri:regionArea>
<wicri:noRegion>Geneva</wicri:noRegion>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author>
<name sortKey="Chin, Daniel P" sort="Chin, Daniel P" uniqKey="Chin D" first="Daniel P" last="Chin">Daniel P. Chin</name>
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<nlm:affiliation>Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, China Office, Beijing, China.</nlm:affiliation>
<country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country>
<wicri:regionArea>Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, China Office, Beijing</wicri:regionArea>
<placeName>
<settlement type="city">Pékin</settlement>
</placeName>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author>
<name sortKey="Wang, Lixia" sort="Wang, Lixia" uniqKey="Wang L" first="Lixia" last="Wang">Lixia Wang</name>
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<nlm:affiliation>National Center for Tuberculosis Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, China.</nlm:affiliation>
<country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country>
<wicri:regionArea>National Center for Tuberculosis Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing</wicri:regionArea>
<placeName>
<settlement type="city">Pékin</settlement>
</placeName>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author>
<name sortKey="Chadha, Vineet K" sort="Chadha, Vineet K" uniqKey="Chadha V" first="Vineet K" last="Chadha">Vineet K. Chadha</name>
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<nlm:affiliation>Epidemiology and Research Division, National Tuberculosis Institute, Bangalore, India.</nlm:affiliation>
<country xml:lang="fr">Inde</country>
<wicri:regionArea>Epidemiology and Research Division, National Tuberculosis Institute, Bangalore</wicri:regionArea>
<wicri:noRegion>Bangalore</wicri:noRegion>
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</author>
<author>
<name sortKey="Rade, Kiran" sort="Rade, Kiran" uniqKey="Rade K" first="Kiran" last="Rade">Kiran Rade</name>
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<nlm:affiliation>World Health Organization, Country Office for India, New Delhi, India.</nlm:affiliation>
<country xml:lang="fr">Inde</country>
<wicri:regionArea>World Health Organization, Country Office for India, New Delhi</wicri:regionArea>
<wicri:noRegion>New Delhi</wicri:noRegion>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author>
<name sortKey="Dewan, Puneet" sort="Dewan, Puneet" uniqKey="Dewan P" first="Puneet" last="Dewan">Puneet Dewan</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="1">
<nlm:affiliation>The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, New Delhi, India.</nlm:affiliation>
<country xml:lang="fr">Inde</country>
<wicri:regionArea>The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, New Delhi</wicri:regionArea>
<wicri:noRegion>New Delhi</wicri:noRegion>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author>
<name sortKey="Hippner, Piotr" sort="Hippner, Piotr" uniqKey="Hippner P" first="Piotr" last="Hippner">Piotr Hippner</name>
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<nlm:affiliation>Aurum Institute. Johannesburg, South Africa.</nlm:affiliation>
<country xml:lang="fr">Afrique du Sud</country>
<wicri:regionArea>Aurum Institute. Johannesburg</wicri:regionArea>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author>
<name sortKey="Charalambous, Salome" sort="Charalambous, Salome" uniqKey="Charalambous S" first="Salome" last="Charalambous">Salome Charalambous</name>
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<nlm:affiliation>Aurum Institute. Johannesburg, South Africa.</nlm:affiliation>
<country xml:lang="fr">Afrique du Sud</country>
<wicri:regionArea>Aurum Institute. Johannesburg</wicri:regionArea>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author>
<name sortKey="Grant, Alison D" sort="Grant, Alison D" uniqKey="Grant A" first="Alison D" last="Grant">Alison D. Grant</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="3">
<nlm:affiliation>Department of Clinical Research, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK.</nlm:affiliation>
<country xml:lang="fr">Royaume-Uni</country>
<wicri:regionArea>Department of Clinical Research, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London</wicri:regionArea>
<placeName>
<settlement type="city">Londres</settlement>
<region type="country">Angleterre</region>
<region type="région" nuts="1">Grand Londres</region>
</placeName>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author>
<name sortKey="Churchyard, Gavin" sort="Churchyard, Gavin" uniqKey="Churchyard G" first="Gavin" last="Churchyard">Gavin Churchyard</name>
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<nlm:affiliation>Aurum Institute. Johannesburg, South Africa; School of Public Health, University of Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa.</nlm:affiliation>
<country xml:lang="fr">Afrique du Sud</country>
<wicri:regionArea>Aurum Institute. Johannesburg, South Africa; School of Public Health, University of Witwatersrand, Johannesburg</wicri:regionArea>
<wicri:noRegion>Johannesburg</wicri:noRegion>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author>
<name sortKey="Pillay, Yogan" sort="Pillay, Yogan" uniqKey="Pillay Y" first="Yogan" last="Pillay">Yogan Pillay</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="1">
<nlm:affiliation>National Department of Health, Pretoria, South Africa.</nlm:affiliation>
<country xml:lang="fr">Afrique du Sud</country>
<wicri:regionArea>National Department of Health, Pretoria</wicri:regionArea>
<wicri:noRegion>Pretoria</wicri:noRegion>
</affiliation>
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<author>
<name sortKey="Mametja, L David" sort="Mametja, L David" uniqKey="Mametja L" first="L David" last="Mametja">L David Mametja</name>
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<nlm:affiliation>National Department of Health, Pretoria, South Africa.</nlm:affiliation>
<country xml:lang="fr">Afrique du Sud</country>
<wicri:regionArea>National Department of Health, Pretoria</wicri:regionArea>
<wicri:noRegion>Pretoria</wicri:noRegion>
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<name sortKey="Kimerling, Michael E" sort="Kimerling, Michael E" uniqKey="Kimerling M" first="Michael E" last="Kimerling">Michael E. Kimerling</name>
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<nlm:affiliation>Bill and Melinda Gates foundation, Seattle, WA, USA (currently KNCV Tuberculosisn Foundation, The Hague, Netherlands).</nlm:affiliation>
<country xml:lang="fr" wicri:curation="lc">Pays-Bas</country>
<wicri:regionArea>Bill and Melinda Gates foundation, Seattle, WA, USA (currently KNCV Tuberculosisn Foundation, The Hague</wicri:regionArea>
<wicri:noRegion>The Hague</wicri:noRegion>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author>
<name sortKey="Vassall, Anna" sort="Vassall, Anna" uniqKey="Vassall A" first="Anna" last="Vassall">Anna Vassall</name>
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<nlm:affiliation>Department of Global Health and Development, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK.</nlm:affiliation>
<country xml:lang="fr">Royaume-Uni</country>
<wicri:regionArea>Department of Global Health and Development, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London</wicri:regionArea>
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<settlement type="city">Londres</settlement>
<region type="country">Angleterre</region>
<region type="région" nuts="1">Grand Londres</region>
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<author>
<name sortKey="White, Richard G" sort="White, Richard G" uniqKey="White R" first="Richard G" last="White">Richard G. White</name>
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<nlm:affiliation>TB Modelling Group, TB Centre, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK; Faculty of Epidemiology and Public Health, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK.</nlm:affiliation>
<country xml:lang="fr">Royaume-Uni</country>
<wicri:regionArea>TB Modelling Group, TB Centre, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK; Faculty of Epidemiology and Public Health, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London</wicri:regionArea>
<placeName>
<settlement type="city">Londres</settlement>
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<series>
<title level="j">The Lancet. Global health</title>
<idno type="eISSN">2214-109X</idno>
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<date when="2016" type="published">2016</date>
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<div type="abstract" xml:lang="en">The post-2015 End TB Strategy proposes targets of 50% reduction in tuberculosis incidence and 75% reduction in mortality from tuberculosis by 2025. We aimed to assess whether these targets are feasible in three high-burden countries with contrasting epidemiology and previous programmatic achievements.</div>
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<DateCreated>
<Year>2016</Year>
<Month>10</Month>
<Day>10</Day>
</DateCreated>
<DateRevised>
<Year>2017</Year>
<Month>09</Month>
<Day>22</Day>
</DateRevised>
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<Journal>
<ISSN IssnType="Electronic">2214-109X</ISSN>
<JournalIssue CitedMedium="Internet">
<Volume>4</Volume>
<Issue>11</Issue>
<PubDate>
<Year>2016</Year>
<Month>Nov</Month>
</PubDate>
</JournalIssue>
<Title>The Lancet. Global health</Title>
<ISOAbbreviation>Lancet Glob Health</ISOAbbreviation>
</Journal>
<ArticleTitle>Feasibility of achieving the 2025 WHO global tuberculosis targets in South Africa, China, and India: a combined analysis of 11 mathematical models.</ArticleTitle>
<Pagination>
<MedlinePgn>e806-e815</MedlinePgn>
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<Abstract>
<AbstractText Label="BACKGROUND" NlmCategory="BACKGROUND">The post-2015 End TB Strategy proposes targets of 50% reduction in tuberculosis incidence and 75% reduction in mortality from tuberculosis by 2025. We aimed to assess whether these targets are feasible in three high-burden countries with contrasting epidemiology and previous programmatic achievements.</AbstractText>
<AbstractText Label="METHODS" NlmCategory="METHODS">11 independently developed mathematical models of tuberculosis transmission projected the epidemiological impact of currently available tuberculosis interventions for prevention, diagnosis, and treatment in China, India, and South Africa. Models were calibrated with data on tuberculosis incidence and mortality in 2012. Representatives from national tuberculosis programmes and the advocacy community provided distinct country-specific intervention scenarios, which included screening for symptoms, active case finding, and preventive therapy.</AbstractText>
<AbstractText Label="FINDINGS" NlmCategory="RESULTS">Aggressive scale-up of any single intervention scenario could not achieve the post-2015 End TB Strategy targets in any country. However, the models projected that, in the South Africa national tuberculosis programme scenario, a combination of continuous isoniazid preventive therapy for individuals on antiretroviral therapy, expanded facility-based screening for symptoms of tuberculosis at health centres, and improved tuberculosis care could achieve a 55% reduction in incidence (range 31-62%) and a 72% reduction in mortality (range 64-82%) compared with 2015 levels. For India, and particularly for China, full scale-up of all interventions in tuberculosis-programme performance fell short of the 2025 targets, despite preventing a cumulative 3·4 million cases. The advocacy scenarios illustrated the high impact of detecting and treating latent tuberculosis.</AbstractText>
<AbstractText Label="INTERPRETATION" NlmCategory="CONCLUSIONS">Major reductions in tuberculosis burden seem possible with current interventions. However, additional interventions, adapted to country-specific tuberculosis epidemiology and health systems, are needed to reach the post-2015 End TB Strategy targets at country level.</AbstractText>
<AbstractText Label="FUNDING" NlmCategory="BACKGROUND">Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation.</AbstractText>
<CopyrightInformation>Copyright © 2016 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY license. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.</CopyrightInformation>
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<LastName>Houben</LastName>
<ForeName>Rein M G J</ForeName>
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<Affiliation>TB Modelling Group, TB Centre, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK; Faculty of Epidemiology and Public Health, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK. Electronic address: rein.houben@lshtm.ac.uk.</Affiliation>
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<ForeName>Nicolas A</ForeName>
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<AffiliationInfo>
<Affiliation>Department of Global Health and Population, Harvard TH Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA, USA.</Affiliation>
</AffiliationInfo>
</Author>
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<LastName>Sumner</LastName>
<ForeName>Tom</ForeName>
<Initials>T</Initials>
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<Affiliation>TB Modelling Group, TB Centre, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK; Faculty of Epidemiology and Public Health, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK.</Affiliation>
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<ForeName>Grace H</ForeName>
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<ForeName>Nimalan</ForeName>
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<Affiliation>Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, London, UK; Public Health Foundation of India, Delhi NCR, India.</Affiliation>
</AffiliationInfo>
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<LastName>Goldhaber-Fiebert</LastName>
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