Synchrony of Dengue Incidence in Ho Chi Minh City and Bangkok
Identifieur interne : 004100 ( Ncbi/Curation ); précédent : 004099; suivant : 004101Synchrony of Dengue Incidence in Ho Chi Minh City and Bangkok
Auteurs : Cuong Hoang Quoc [Viêt Nam] ; Salje Henrik [États-Unis, France] ; Rodriguez-Barraquer Isabel [États-Unis] ; Yoon In-Kyu [Corée du Sud, Thaïlande] ; Nguyen Van Vinh Chau [Viêt Nam] ; Nguyen Thanh Hung [Viêt Nam] ; Ha Manh Tuan [Viêt Nam] ; Phan Trong Lan [Viêt Nam] ; Bridget Willis [Viêt Nam] ; Ananda Nisalak [Thaïlande] ; Siripen Kalayanarooj [Thaïlande] ; Derek A. T. Cummings [États-Unis] ; Cameron P. Simmons [Viêt Nam, Australie]Source :
- PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases [ 1935-2727 ] ; 2016.
Abstract
Ho Chi Minh City and Bangkok are highly dengue endemic. The extent to which disease patterns are attributable to local versus regional dynamics remains unclear. To address this gap we compared key transmission parameters across the locations.
We used 2003–2009 age-stratified case data to inform catalytic transmission models. Further, we compared the spatial clustering of serotypes within each city. We found that annual case numbers were highly consistent across the two cities (correlation of 0.77, 95% CI: 0.74–0.79) as was the annual force of infection (correlation of 0.57, 95% CI: 0.46–0.68). Serotypes were less similar with serotype-specific correlations ranging from 0.65 for DENV1 to -0.14 for DENV4. Significant spatial clustering of serotypes was observed in HCMC at distances <500m, similar to previous observations from Bangkok.
Dengue dynamics are comparable across these two hubs. Low correlation in serotype distribution suggests that similar built environments, vector populations and climate, rather than viral flow drives these observations.
Url:
DOI: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0005188
PubMed: 28033384
PubMed Central: 5199033
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PMC:5199033Le document en format XML
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</placeName>
</affiliation>
<affiliation wicri:level="2"><nlm:aff id="aff013"><addr-line>Department of Biology, University of Florida, Gainesville, Florida, United States of America</addr-line>
</nlm:aff>
<country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country>
<wicri:regionArea>Department of Biology, University of Florida, Gainesville, Florida</wicri:regionArea>
<placeName><region type="state">Floride</region>
</placeName>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Simmons, Cameron P" sort="Simmons, Cameron P" uniqKey="Simmons C" first="Cameron P." last="Simmons">Cameron P. Simmons</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff002"><addr-line>Oxford University Clinical Research Unit, Hospital for Tropical Diseases, District 5, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam</addr-line>
</nlm:aff>
<country xml:lang="fr">Viêt Nam</country>
<wicri:regionArea>Oxford University Clinical Research Unit, Hospital for Tropical Diseases, District 5, Ho Chi Minh City</wicri:regionArea>
<wicri:noRegion>Ho Chi Minh City</wicri:noRegion>
</affiliation>
<affiliation wicri:level="4"><nlm:aff id="aff014"><addr-line>Department of Microbiology and Immunology, University of Melbourne, at the Peter Doherty Institute, Victoria, Australia</addr-line>
</nlm:aff>
<country xml:lang="fr">Australie</country>
<wicri:regionArea>Department of Microbiology and Immunology, University of Melbourne, at the Peter Doherty Institute, Victoria</wicri:regionArea>
<orgName type="university">Université de Melbourne</orgName>
<placeName><settlement type="city">Melbourne</settlement>
<region type="état">Victoria (État)</region>
</placeName>
</affiliation>
</author>
</analytic>
<series><title level="j">PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases</title>
<idno type="ISSN">1935-2727</idno>
<idno type="eISSN">1935-2735</idno>
<imprint><date when="2016">2016</date>
</imprint>
</series>
</biblStruct>
</sourceDesc>
</fileDesc>
<profileDesc><textClass></textClass>
</profileDesc>
</teiHeader>
<front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en"><sec id="sec001"><title>Background</title>
<p>Ho Chi Minh City and Bangkok are highly dengue endemic. The extent to which disease patterns are attributable to local versus regional dynamics remains unclear. To address this gap we compared key transmission parameters across the locations.</p>
</sec>
<sec id="sec002"><title>Methods and Principal Findings</title>
<p>We used 2003–2009 age-stratified case data to inform catalytic transmission models. Further, we compared the spatial clustering of serotypes within each city. We found that annual case numbers were highly consistent across the two cities (correlation of 0.77, 95% CI: 0.74–0.79) as was the annual force of infection (correlation of 0.57, 95% CI: 0.46–0.68). Serotypes were less similar with serotype-specific correlations ranging from 0.65 for DENV1 to -0.14 for DENV4. Significant spatial clustering of serotypes was observed in HCMC at distances <500m, similar to previous observations from Bangkok.</p>
</sec>
<sec id="sec003"><title>Discussions</title>
<p>Dengue dynamics are comparable across these two hubs. Low correlation in serotype distribution suggests that similar built environments, vector populations and climate, rather than viral flow drives these observations.</p>
</sec>
</div>
</front>
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