Synchrony of Dengue Incidence in Ho Chi Minh City and Bangkok
Identifieur interne : 002766 ( Pmc/Curation ); précédent : 002765; suivant : 002767Synchrony of Dengue Incidence in Ho Chi Minh City and Bangkok
Auteurs : Cuong Hoang Quoc [Viêt Nam] ; Salje Henrik [États-Unis, France] ; Rodriguez-Barraquer Isabel [États-Unis] ; Yoon In-Kyu [Corée du Sud, Thaïlande] ; Nguyen Van Vinh Chau [Viêt Nam] ; Nguyen Thanh Hung [Viêt Nam] ; Ha Manh Tuan [Viêt Nam] ; Phan Trong Lan [Viêt Nam] ; Bridget Willis [Viêt Nam] ; Ananda Nisalak [Thaïlande] ; Siripen Kalayanarooj [Thaïlande] ; Derek A. T. Cummings [États-Unis] ; Cameron P. Simmons [Viêt Nam, Australie]Source :
- PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases [ 1935-2727 ] ; 2016.
Abstract
Ho Chi Minh City and Bangkok are highly dengue endemic. The extent to which disease patterns are attributable to local versus regional dynamics remains unclear. To address this gap we compared key transmission parameters across the locations.
We used 2003–2009 age-stratified case data to inform catalytic transmission models. Further, we compared the spatial clustering of serotypes within each city. We found that annual case numbers were highly consistent across the two cities (correlation of 0.77, 95% CI: 0.74–0.79) as was the annual force of infection (correlation of 0.57, 95% CI: 0.46–0.68). Serotypes were less similar with serotype-specific correlations ranging from 0.65 for DENV1 to -0.14 for DENV4. Significant spatial clustering of serotypes was observed in HCMC at distances <500m, similar to previous observations from Bangkok.
Dengue dynamics are comparable across these two hubs. Low correlation in serotype distribution suggests that similar built environments, vector populations and climate, rather than viral flow drives these observations.
Url:
DOI: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0005188
PubMed: 28033384
PubMed Central: 5199033
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Nam</country><wicri:regionArea>Pasteur Institute in Ho Chi Minh City, 167 Pasteur, district 3, Ho Chi Minh City</wicri:regionArea></affiliation><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff002"><addr-line>Oxford University Clinical Research Unit, Hospital for Tropical Diseases, District 5, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam</addr-line></nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">Viêt Nam</country><wicri:regionArea>Oxford University Clinical Research Unit, Hospital for Tropical Diseases, District 5, Ho Chi Minh City</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Henrik, Salje" sort="Henrik, Salje" uniqKey="Henrik S" first="Salje" last="Henrik">Salje Henrik</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff003"><addr-line>Department of Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, Maryland, United States of America</addr-line></nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country><wicri:regionArea>Department of Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, Maryland</wicri:regionArea></affiliation><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff004"><addr-line>Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases Unit, Institute Pasteur, Paris, France</addr-line></nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">France</country><wicri:regionArea>Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases Unit, Institute Pasteur, Paris</wicri:regionArea></affiliation><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff005"><addr-line>CNRS, URA3012, Paris, France</addr-line></nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">France</country><wicri:regionArea>CNRS, URA3012, Paris</wicri:regionArea></affiliation><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff006"><addr-line>Center of Bioinformatics, Biostatistics and Integrative Biology, Institut Pasteur, Paris, France</addr-line></nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">France</country><wicri:regionArea>Center of Bioinformatics, Biostatistics and Integrative Biology, Institut Pasteur, Paris</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Isabel, Rodriguez Barraquer" sort="Isabel, Rodriguez Barraquer" uniqKey="Isabel R" first="Rodriguez-Barraquer" last="Isabel">Rodriguez-Barraquer Isabel</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff003"><addr-line>Department of Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, Maryland, United States of America</addr-line></nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country><wicri:regionArea>Department of Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, Maryland</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="In Kyu, Yoon" sort="In Kyu, Yoon" uniqKey="In Kyu Y" first="Yoon" last="In-Kyu">Yoon In-Kyu</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff007"><addr-line>International Vaccine Institute, Seoul, Republic of Korea</addr-line></nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">Corée du Sud</country><wicri:regionArea>International Vaccine Institute, Seoul</wicri:regionArea></affiliation><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff008"><addr-line>Armed Forces Research Institute of Medical Sciences, Bangkok, Thailand</addr-line></nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">Thaïlande</country><wicri:regionArea>Armed Forces Research Institute of Medical Sciences, Bangkok</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Chau, Nguyen Van Vinh" sort="Chau, Nguyen Van Vinh" uniqKey="Chau N" first="Nguyen Van Vinh" last="Chau">Nguyen Van Vinh Chau</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff009"><addr-line>Hospital for Tropical Diseases, District 5, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam</addr-line></nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">Viêt Nam</country><wicri:regionArea>Hospital for Tropical Diseases, District 5, Ho Chi Minh City</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Hung, Nguyen Thanh" sort="Hung, Nguyen Thanh" uniqKey="Hung N" first="Nguyen Thanh" last="Hung">Nguyen Thanh Hung</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff010"><addr-line>Children’s Hospital No. 1, District 10, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam</addr-line></nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">Viêt Nam</country><wicri:regionArea>Children’s Hospital No. 1, District 10, Ho Chi Minh City</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Tuan, Ha Manh" sort="Tuan, Ha Manh" uniqKey="Tuan H" first="Ha Manh" last="Tuan">Ha Manh Tuan</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff011"><addr-line>Children’s Hospital No. 2, District 1, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam</addr-line></nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">Viêt Nam</country><wicri:regionArea>Children’s Hospital No. 2, District 1, Ho Chi Minh City</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Lan, Phan Trong" sort="Lan, Phan Trong" uniqKey="Lan P" first="Phan Trong" last="Lan">Phan Trong Lan</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff001"><addr-line>Pasteur Institute in Ho Chi Minh City, 167 Pasteur, district 3, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam</addr-line></nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">Viêt Nam</country><wicri:regionArea>Pasteur Institute in Ho Chi Minh City, 167 Pasteur, district 3, Ho Chi Minh City</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Willis, Bridget" sort="Willis, Bridget" uniqKey="Willis B" first="Bridget" last="Willis">Bridget Willis</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff002"><addr-line>Oxford University Clinical Research Unit, Hospital for Tropical Diseases, District 5, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam</addr-line></nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">Viêt Nam</country><wicri:regionArea>Oxford University Clinical Research Unit, Hospital for Tropical Diseases, District 5, Ho Chi Minh City</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Nisalak, Ananda" sort="Nisalak, Ananda" uniqKey="Nisalak A" first="Ananda" last="Nisalak">Ananda Nisalak</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff008"><addr-line>Armed Forces Research Institute of Medical Sciences, Bangkok, Thailand</addr-line></nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">Thaïlande</country><wicri:regionArea>Armed Forces Research Institute of Medical Sciences, Bangkok</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Kalayanarooj, Siripen" sort="Kalayanarooj, Siripen" uniqKey="Kalayanarooj S" first="Siripen" last="Kalayanarooj">Siripen Kalayanarooj</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff012"><addr-line>Queen Sirikit National Institute of Child Health, Bangkok, Thailand</addr-line></nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">Thaïlande</country><wicri:regionArea>Queen Sirikit National Institute of Child Health, Bangkok</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Cummings, Derek A T" sort="Cummings, Derek A T" uniqKey="Cummings D" first="Derek A. T." last="Cummings">Derek A. T. Cummings</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff003"><addr-line>Department of Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, Maryland, United States of America</addr-line></nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country><wicri:regionArea>Department of Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, Maryland</wicri:regionArea></affiliation><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff013"><addr-line>Department of Biology, University of Florida, Gainesville, Florida, United States of America</addr-line></nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country><wicri:regionArea>Department of Biology, University of Florida, Gainesville, Florida</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Simmons, Cameron P" sort="Simmons, Cameron P" uniqKey="Simmons C" first="Cameron P." last="Simmons">Cameron P. Simmons</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff002"><addr-line>Oxford University Clinical Research Unit, Hospital for Tropical Diseases, District 5, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam</addr-line></nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">Viêt Nam</country><wicri:regionArea>Oxford University Clinical Research Unit, Hospital for Tropical Diseases, District 5, Ho Chi Minh City</wicri:regionArea></affiliation><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff014"><addr-line>Department of Microbiology and Immunology, University of Melbourne, at the Peter Doherty Institute, Victoria, Australia</addr-line></nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">Australie</country><wicri:regionArea>Department of Microbiology and Immunology, University of Melbourne, at the Peter Doherty Institute, Victoria</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author></analytic><series><title level="j">PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases</title><idno type="ISSN">1935-2727</idno><idno type="eISSN">1935-2735</idno><imprint><date when="2016">2016</date></imprint></series></biblStruct></sourceDesc></fileDesc><profileDesc><textClass></textClass></profileDesc></teiHeader><front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en"><sec id="sec001"><title>Background</title><p>Ho Chi Minh City and Bangkok are highly dengue endemic. The extent to which disease patterns are attributable to local versus regional dynamics remains unclear. To address this gap we compared key transmission parameters across the locations.</p></sec><sec id="sec002"><title>Methods and Principal Findings</title><p>We used 2003–2009 age-stratified case data to inform catalytic transmission models. Further, we compared the spatial clustering of serotypes within each city. We found that annual case numbers were highly consistent across the two cities (correlation of 0.77, 95% CI: 0.74–0.79) as was the annual force of infection (correlation of 0.57, 95% CI: 0.46–0.68). Serotypes were less similar with serotype-specific correlations ranging from 0.65 for DENV1 to -0.14 for DENV4. Significant spatial clustering of serotypes was observed in HCMC at distances <500m, similar to previous observations from Bangkok.</p></sec><sec id="sec003"><title>Discussions</title><p>Dengue dynamics are comparable across these two hubs. 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<front><journal-meta><journal-id journal-id-type="nlm-ta">PLoS Negl Trop Dis</journal-id><journal-id journal-id-type="iso-abbrev">PLoS Negl Trop Dis</journal-id><journal-id journal-id-type="publisher-id">plos</journal-id><journal-id journal-id-type="pmc">plosntds</journal-id><journal-title-group><journal-title>PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases</journal-title></journal-title-group><issn pub-type="ppub">1935-2727</issn><issn pub-type="epub">1935-2735</issn><publisher><publisher-name>Public Library of Science</publisher-name><publisher-loc>San Francisco, CA USA</publisher-loc></publisher></journal-meta><article-meta><article-id pub-id-type="pmid">28033384</article-id><article-id pub-id-type="pmc">5199033</article-id><article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.1371/journal.pntd.0005188</article-id><article-id pub-id-type="publisher-id">PNTD-D-16-00555</article-id><article-categories><subj-group subj-group-type="heading"><subject>Research Article</subject></subj-group><subj-group subj-group-type="Discipline-v3"><subject>People and Places</subject><subj-group><subject>Demography</subject><subj-group><subject>Age Distribution</subject></subj-group></subj-group></subj-group><subj-group subj-group-type="Discipline-v3"><subject>Medicine and Health Sciences</subject><subj-group><subject>Tropical Diseases</subject><subj-group><subject>Neglected Tropical Diseases</subject><subj-group><subject>Dengue Fever</subject></subj-group></subj-group></subj-group></subj-group><subj-group subj-group-type="Discipline-v3"><subject>Medicine and Health Sciences</subject><subj-group><subject>Infectious Diseases</subject><subj-group><subject>Viral Diseases</subject><subj-group><subject>Dengue Fever</subject></subj-group></subj-group></subj-group></subj-group><subj-group subj-group-type="Discipline-v3"><subject>People and Places</subject><subj-group><subject>Geographical Locations</subject><subj-group><subject>Asia</subject><subj-group><subject>Thailand</subject></subj-group></subj-group></subj-group></subj-group><subj-group subj-group-type="Discipline-v3"><subject>Medicine and Health Sciences</subject><subj-group><subject>Tropical Diseases</subject></subj-group></subj-group><subj-group subj-group-type="Discipline-v3"><subject>Medicine and Health Sciences</subject><subj-group><subject>Health Care</subject><subj-group><subject>Health Care Facilities</subject><subj-group><subject>Hospitals</subject></subj-group></subj-group></subj-group></subj-group><subj-group subj-group-type="Discipline-v3"><subject>Physical Sciences</subject><subj-group><subject>Mathematics</subject><subj-group><subject>Statistics (Mathematics)</subject><subj-group><subject>Confidence Intervals</subject></subj-group></subj-group></subj-group></subj-group><subj-group subj-group-type="Discipline-v3"><subject>People and Places</subject><subj-group><subject>Geographical Locations</subject><subj-group><subject>Asia</subject><subj-group><subject>Vietnam</subject></subj-group></subj-group></subj-group></subj-group><subj-group subj-group-type="Discipline-v3"><subject>People and Places</subject><subj-group><subject>Population Groupings</subject><subj-group><subject>Age Groups</subject></subj-group></subj-group></subj-group></article-categories><title-group><article-title>Synchrony of Dengue Incidence in Ho Chi Minh City and Bangkok</article-title><alt-title alt-title-type="running-head">Dengue in Ho Chi Minh City and Bangkok</alt-title></title-group><contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author" equal-contrib="yes"><name name-style="eastern"><surname>Hoang Quoc</surname><given-names>Cuong</given-names></name><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff001"><sup>1</sup></xref><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff002"><sup>2</sup></xref><xref ref-type="corresp" rid="cor001">*</xref></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author" equal-contrib="yes"><name name-style="eastern"><surname>Henrik</surname><given-names>Salje</given-names></name><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff003"><sup>3</sup></xref><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff004"><sup>4</sup></xref><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff005"><sup>5</sup></xref><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff006"><sup>6</sup></xref></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author"><name name-style="eastern"><surname>Isabel</surname><given-names>Rodriguez-Barraquer</given-names></name><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff003"><sup>3</sup></xref></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author"><name name-style="eastern"><surname>In-Kyu</surname><given-names>Yoon</given-names></name><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff007"><sup>7</sup></xref><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff008"><sup>8</sup></xref></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author"><name name-style="eastern"><surname>Chau</surname><given-names>Nguyen Van Vinh</given-names></name><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff009"><sup>9</sup></xref></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author"><name name-style="eastern"><surname>Hung</surname><given-names>Nguyen Thanh</given-names></name><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff010"><sup>10</sup></xref></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author"><name name-style="eastern"><surname>Tuan</surname><given-names>Ha Manh</given-names></name><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff011"><sup>11</sup></xref></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author"><name name-style="eastern"><surname>Lan</surname><given-names>Phan Trong</given-names></name><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff001"><sup>1</sup></xref></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author"><name name-style="eastern"><surname>Willis</surname><given-names>Bridget</given-names></name><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff002"><sup>2</sup></xref></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author"><name name-style="eastern"><surname>Nisalak</surname><given-names>Ananda</given-names></name><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff008"><sup>8</sup></xref></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author"><name name-style="eastern"><surname>Kalayanarooj</surname><given-names>Siripen</given-names></name><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff012"><sup>12</sup></xref></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author"><name name-style="eastern"><surname>Cummings</surname><given-names>Derek A. T.</given-names></name><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff003"><sup>3</sup></xref><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff013"><sup>13</sup></xref></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author"><name name-style="eastern"><surname>Simmons</surname><given-names>Cameron P.</given-names></name><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff002"><sup>2</sup></xref><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff014"><sup>14</sup></xref></contrib></contrib-group><aff id="aff001"><label>1</label><addr-line>Pasteur Institute in Ho Chi Minh City, 167 Pasteur, district 3, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam</addr-line></aff><aff id="aff002"><label>2</label><addr-line>Oxford University Clinical Research Unit, Hospital for Tropical Diseases, District 5, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam</addr-line></aff><aff id="aff003"><label>3</label><addr-line>Department of Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, Maryland, United States of America</addr-line></aff><aff id="aff004"><label>4</label><addr-line>Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases Unit, Institute Pasteur, Paris, France</addr-line></aff><aff id="aff005"><label>5</label><addr-line>CNRS, URA3012, Paris, France</addr-line></aff><aff id="aff006"><label>6</label><addr-line>Center of Bioinformatics, Biostatistics and Integrative Biology, Institut Pasteur, Paris, France</addr-line></aff><aff id="aff007"><label>7</label><addr-line>International Vaccine Institute, Seoul, Republic of Korea</addr-line></aff><aff id="aff008"><label>8</label><addr-line>Armed Forces Research Institute of Medical Sciences, Bangkok, Thailand</addr-line></aff><aff id="aff009"><label>9</label><addr-line>Hospital for Tropical Diseases, District 5, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam</addr-line></aff><aff id="aff010"><label>10</label><addr-line>Children’s Hospital No. 1, District 10, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam</addr-line></aff><aff id="aff011"><label>11</label><addr-line>Children’s Hospital No. 2, District 1, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam</addr-line></aff><aff id="aff012"><label>12</label><addr-line>Queen Sirikit National Institute of Child Health, Bangkok, Thailand</addr-line></aff><aff id="aff013"><label>13</label><addr-line>Department of Biology, University of Florida, Gainesville, Florida, United States of America</addr-line></aff><aff id="aff014"><label>14</label><addr-line>Department of Microbiology and Immunology, University of Melbourne, at the Peter Doherty Institute, Victoria, Australia</addr-line></aff><contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="editor"><name name-style="eastern"><surname>Scarpino</surname><given-names>Samuel V.</given-names></name><role>Editor</role><xref ref-type="aff" rid="edit1"></xref></contrib></contrib-group><aff id="edit1"><addr-line>Santa Fe Institute, UNITED STATES</addr-line></aff><author-notes><fn fn-type="COI-statement" id="coi001"><p>The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.</p></fn><fn fn-type="con"><p><list list-type="simple"><list-item><p><bold>Conceived and designed the experiments:</bold> HQC HS DATC CPS.</p></list-item><list-item><p><bold>Analyzed the data:</bold> HS HQC IRB DATC CPS.</p></list-item><list-item><p><bold>Contributed reagents/materials/analysis tools:</bold> HQC HS IKY NVVC HNT HMT PTL BW AN SK DATC CPS.</p></list-item><list-item><p><bold>Wrote the paper:</bold> HS HQC IRB BW DATC CPS.</p></list-item></list></p></fn><corresp id="cor001">* E-mail: <email>cuonghqpasteur@gmail.com</email></corresp></author-notes><pub-date pub-type="epub"><day>29</day><month>12</month><year>2016</year></pub-date><pub-date pub-type="collection"><month>12</month><year>2016</year></pub-date><volume>10</volume><issue>12</issue><elocation-id>e0005188</elocation-id><history><date date-type="received"><day>6</day><month>4</month><year>2016</year></date><date date-type="accepted"><day>15</day><month>11</month><year>2016</year></date></history><permissions><copyright-statement>© 2016 Hoang Quoc et al</copyright-statement><copyright-year>2016</copyright-year><copyright-holder>Hoang Quoc et al</copyright-holder><license xlink:href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"><license-p>This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the <ext-link ext-link-type="uri" xlink:href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">Creative Commons Attribution License</ext-link>, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.</license-p></license></permissions><self-uri content-type="pdf" xlink:href="pntd.0005188.pdf"></self-uri><abstract><sec id="sec001"><title>Background</title><p>Ho Chi Minh City and Bangkok are highly dengue endemic. The extent to which disease patterns are attributable to local versus regional dynamics remains unclear. To address this gap we compared key transmission parameters across the locations.</p></sec><sec id="sec002"><title>Methods and Principal Findings</title><p>We used 2003–2009 age-stratified case data to inform catalytic transmission models. Further, we compared the spatial clustering of serotypes within each city. We found that annual case numbers were highly consistent across the two cities (correlation of 0.77, 95% CI: 0.74–0.79) as was the annual force of infection (correlation of 0.57, 95% CI: 0.46–0.68). Serotypes were less similar with serotype-specific correlations ranging from 0.65 for DENV1 to -0.14 for DENV4. Significant spatial clustering of serotypes was observed in HCMC at distances <500m, similar to previous observations from Bangkok.</p></sec><sec id="sec003"><title>Discussions</title><p>Dengue dynamics are comparable across these two hubs. Low correlation in serotype distribution suggests that similar built environments, vector populations and climate, rather than viral flow drives these observations.</p></sec></abstract><abstract abstract-type="summary"><title>Author Summary</title><p>All four serotypes of dengue have circulated endemically throughout Southeast Asia for decades. However, despite the enormous burden of disease, there remains poor understanding of the similarity in disease patterns across the region. We analyzed data from over 100,000 cases of dengue from two of the largest cities in the region, Bangkok and Ho Chi Minh City between 2001 and 2009. We use basic statistical methods to reconstruct the annual probability of infection in the two cities during this time period using methods that are robust to differences in reporting mechanisms. We find that both the epidemic curves and annual probabilities of infection were highly correlated across the cities, however, serotype-specific correlations were far more variable. Finally, we used geocoded case homes from Ho Chi Minh to demonstrate that cases in the city clustered at spatial scales (<500m) similar to that previously observed in Bangkok. These findings show that dengue dynamics are highly comparable across these two urban hubs; however, the low correlation in serotype distribution suggests that similar built environments and climate, rather than viral flow drives these observations.</p></abstract><funding-group><award-group id="award001"><funding-source><institution>The Wellcome Trust</institution></funding-source><award-id>089276/B/09/7</award-id><principal-award-recipient><name name-style="eastern"><surname>Hoang Quoc</surname><given-names>Cuong</given-names></name></principal-award-recipient></award-group><award-group id="award002"><funding-source><institution-wrap><institution-id institution-id-type="funder-id">http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/100000002</institution-id><institution>National Institutes of Health</institution></institution-wrap></funding-source><award-id>R01AI102939</award-id><principal-award-recipient><name name-style="eastern"><surname>Salje</surname><given-names>Henrik</given-names></name></principal-award-recipient></award-group><award-group id="award003"><funding-source><institution-wrap><institution-id institution-id-type="funder-id">http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/100000002</institution-id><institution>National Institutes of Health</institution></institution-wrap></funding-source><award-id>R01AI102939 and R01AI114703</award-id><principal-award-recipient><name name-style="eastern"><surname>Cummings</surname><given-names>Derek A. T.</given-names></name></principal-award-recipient></award-group><award-group id="award004"><funding-source><institution>U54</institution></funding-source><award-id>GM088491</award-id><principal-award-recipient><name name-style="eastern"><surname>Rodriguez-Barraquer</surname><given-names>Isabel</given-names></name></principal-award-recipient></award-group><award-group id="award005"><funding-source><institution>UK Wellcome Trust and Australian NHMRC</institution></funding-source><principal-award-recipient><name name-style="eastern"><surname>Simmons</surname><given-names>Cameron P. P.</given-names></name></principal-award-recipient></award-group><award-group id="award006"><funding-source><institution>EU grant</institution></funding-source><award-id>FP7-21803</award-id></award-group><funding-statement>HQC acknowledges the support of the Wellcome Trust (089276/B/09/7). HS and DATC were supported by US NIH R01AI102939 and R01AI114703. DATC and IRB received support from U54 GM088491. CPS received support from the UK Wellcome Trust and Australian NHMRC. One of the two clinical studies contributing data to the spatial dependence analysis in Ho Chi Minh City was funded by EU grant FP7-21803 IDAMS (<ext-link ext-link-type="uri" xlink:href="http://www.idams.eu">http://www.idams.eu</ext-link>). The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript.</funding-statement></funding-group><counts><fig-count count="6"></fig-count><table-count count="2"></table-count><page-count count="18"></page-count></counts><custom-meta-group><custom-meta id="data-availability"><meta-name>Data Availability</meta-name><meta-value>All relevant data are within the paper and its Supporting Information files.</meta-value></custom-meta></custom-meta-group></article-meta><notes><title>Data Availability</title><p>All relevant data are within the paper and its Supporting Information files.</p></notes></front></pmc></record>Pour manipuler ce document sous Unix (Dilib)
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